2020 Men's Olympic Tournament

[Killer Bob]

These fellows are supposed to be superbly conditioned professional athletes. Playing every two to three days should NOT tax a basketball player, unless perhaps he's well beyond the age of forty.

What Luka is doing is not something normal though. His usage is insane. On the other hand, he has lost some weight in last month. 4 difficult games in 7 days is still a lot.

[usagre]

My predictions

Pretenders that will lose in quarters or if meet with each other will lose in semis and not medal:

Usa, Australia, Argentina

Medal contenders:

Spain, Slovenia, France, Italy

#1 Spain (it’s finally their time)
#2 Italy. (They will make a run like ‘04)
#3 France
#4 Slovenia

[Darrell Armstrong]

I think it's still too early to make predictions. I don't know if Spain is going to medal, but I'm enjoying this sweet period before the old guard rides into the sunset; hopefully with some weight around their necks. Throughout exhibition games and today against Japan you can clearly see the guidelines of this team, building upon 2019 success while adding even more useful pieces. We have a style that is both efficient and suited to our player's strengths. And we stick to it against every opponent, big or small. The buy-in from players and coaches is complete. This is a stark contrast against other teams which look discombobulated (like USA or Argentina), or depend on a couple stars (like Slovenia or Japan).

In the end, small details can decide tournaments, and Spain can easily fall in quarterfinals like it has been our fate in other tournaments that begun auspiciously enough. But the confidence and commitment to a greater goal that this roster is displaying, that's satisfying enough if we keep it, even in a loss.

BTW, you may want to add Ricky Rubio to your MVP ballots. What he's doing this summer is outstanding so far. Dominated France, USA, and now Japan while only playing around 20 minutes. All while playing defence, unlike other MVP candidates...

[Killer Bob]

My predictions

Pretenders that will lose in quarters or if meet with each other will lose in semis and not medal:

Usa, Australia, Argentina

Medal contenders:

Spain, Slovenia, France, Italy

#1 Spain (it’s finally their time)
#2 Italy. (They will make a run like ‘04)
#3 France
#4 Slovenia

If Slovenia makes semis, Luka won't lose 2 games in a row.

I still have USA favourites, than France and Slovenia. But a lot depends on a draw.

[Killer Bob]

I think it's still too early to make predictions. I don't know if Spain is going to medal, but I'm enjoying this sweet period before the old guard rides into the sunset; hopefully with some weight around their necks. Throughout exhibition games and today against Japan you can clearly see the guidelines of this team, building upon 2019 success while adding even more useful pieces. We have a style that is both efficient and suited to our player's strengths. And we stick to it against every opponent, big or small. The buy-in from players and coaches is complete. This is a stark contrast against other teams which look discombobulated (like USA or Argentina), or depend on a couple stars (like Slovenia or Japan).

In the end, small details can decide tournaments, and Spain can easily fall in quarterfinals like it has been our fate in other tournaments that begun auspiciously enough. But the confidence and commitment to a greater goal that this roster is displaying, that's satisfying enough if we keep it, even in a loss.

BTW, you may want to add Ricky Rubio to your MVP ballots. What he's doing this summer is outstanding so far. Dominated France, USA, and now Japan while only playing around 20 minutes. All while playing defence, unlike other MVP candidates...

Let's see how they will play against Slovenia. They were clear favourites in 2017, but it turned out very different.

I kinda doubt that Pg, who gets 11 rebounds and 3 blocks doesn't play D.

[usagre]

I still have USA favourites, .

I don’t see it. Not with the state of mind and lack of confidence this team currently is experiencing that won’t be fixed with wins against Iran and the Czech Republic. Not to mention the cantankerous, pompous fool running the team that would rather go down with the ship than actually change his methods. Put all this together and I cannot see them winning three consecutive knockout games. In all honestly I think there’s a better chance they lose to the Czech Republic and get eliminated than them running the table and winning 5 in a row. Either way they’ll most likely lose in the quarterfinals and Popovich can have the honor of leading the worst World Championships and Olympic Usa teams ever. He deserves that accolade.

[Levenspiel]

...I don't know if Spain is going to medal, but I'm enjoying this sweet period before the old guard rides into the sunset; hopefully with some weight around their necks...

hey this is a beautiful imagery... and describes the situation very well.

[Darrell Armstrong]

Let's see how they will play against Slovenia. They were clear favourites in 2017, but it turned out very different.

I kinda doubt that Pg, who gets 11 rebounds and 3 blocks doesn't play D.

The group phase game against Slovenia means nothing. You tell me how important were those early blowout wins against Argentina in 2004, Russia in 2007, or France in 2014. If both teams advance far enough and square off again, it will be a completely new game.

My not-so-subtle dig was directed to Lillard and KD, but now that you mention it, Luka has to pace himself and obviously is not as active defensively as Rubio; who can go all out knowing he only has to play half the game. That doesn't prevent him from getting some highlights, but Sekulic is not giving him the toughest assignments routinely.

[Darrell Armstrong]

hey this is a beautiful imagery... and describes the situation very well.

Thanks. I'm usually content if my NT plays well and advances as much as possible (humbly says the fan of a team hoarding 2 WCs, 3 Euros and 2 Olympic Finals). But this time I'm more emotionally attached because the idea of Pau, Marc and Rudy earning a golden retirement is too attractive not to.

[Hepcat]

Now that I'm checking potential QFs matchups, I'm afraid you're right. I was under the impression that both Spain and Slovenia would benefit by qualifying 1st and best 2nd (which could be achieved by a close game, regardless of the winner). But that outcome will give both teams a 33% chance of facing Team USA in the QFs. By winning by a big margin, either Spain or Slovenia can ensure not only the 1st place, but help Team USA to qualify as best 2nd, and thus remove them from the pool of QFs rivals.

This is a bit like the prisoner's dilemma: the best outcome is the one that demands taking more risks. If any of these two teams go all out and lose some key player to injury, they can win but still face the same team in QFs as if they had rested and lost.

I don't understand the thinking behind changing the format for qualifying for the playoffs. How can the two "best" third place teams be determined when the teams don't play the same opponents?

And secondly when was a deserving team ever eliminated from the playoffs in the past? After all, teams with 2-3 records can hardly be classified as "deserving". If it ain't broke, don't fix it! Why don't people ever learn from this simple adage?

[Killer Bob]

The group phase game against Slovenia means nothing. You tell me how important were those early blowout wins against Argentina in 2004, Russia in 2007, or France in 2014. If both teams advance far enough and square off again, it will be a completely new game.

My not-so-subtle dig was directed to Lillard and KD, but now that you mention it, Luka has to pace himself and obviously is not as active defensively as Rubio; who can go all out knowing he only has to play half the game. That doesn't prevent him from getting some highlights, but Sekulic is not giving him the toughest assignments routinely.

Luka is not getting toughest assignments, but his rebounding is crucial. He was something like 6th rebounder in Eurobasket too. He's for sure above average team defender.

It's not about Sunday's game, it's about how will Spain prevent Luka to get favourable switches. Gasol brothers would have probably been killed there, Garuba looks the most promising. I kinda doubt Spain can beat Slovenia playing like against Japan.

[ncjazz]

hey this is a beautiful imagery... and describes the situation very well.

Question is "old guard" to old and can the younger players make up for it. The younger talent is somewhat lacking now especially with no Juancho.

[ChuckDiesel2]

Luka with Jrue and Middleton would had been very near to win Nba this year. His playoff numbers were insane. Mavs just totally fucked up in last years. Not only with KP, who was fair gamble, but everything else was just total failure, ending with Curry/Richardson trade.

There isn’t a situation on earth that would put Luka close to the same level as Giannis defensively.

[ChuckDiesel2]

They had probably better generation between 2005-10. Smodis, Lorbek, Becirovic, Dragic, Lakovic, Nachbar, but rarely they had complete squad. Now, they created synergy on wawes of winning Eurobasket 2017. Prepelic, Blazic, Zoran Dragic play better for nt in comparison with their clubs, Doncic is miraculous, so surprisingly they came in situation where are close for some medal.

One of my favorite FIBA games of all time was Slovenia vs Serbia at the 09 Eurobasket. Young Teo. Underhanded Slovenia with Lorbek doing Kevin McHale shit. Whistles were swallowed, hand to hand combat encouraged. Classic affair.

[Killer Bob]

There isn’t a situation on earth that would put Luka close to the same level as Giannis defensively.

He doesn't need to be with 35.7/7.9/10.3 and 41% for 3, almost all unassisted, with huge volume. Mavs needed someone to play D, secondary guard and secondary scorer. Basically Jrue and Middleton would have been perfect. Nobody is winning title with THJ as second best player and Marjanovic defending pick&roll.