2020 Men's Olympic Tournament

[eal]

General discussion about the Men's tournament can go here.

Has anyone else noticed that the Gold Medal Match is played on August 7 at 11:30 local time, but the Bronze Medal Match is played on August 7 at 20:00 local time. The only explanation I can think of for this bizarre scheduling is US tv audiences - the Gold Medal match will be Friday night prime time viewing, whereas the Bronze medal match will be on at 6:00 am on Saturday.

[Stevy]

Brief & comprehensive review to the Olympics and Predictions

There are 12 teams participating in the Olympics. To advance to the quarterfinals, the first two-placed teams advance as well as the two best third-placed teams.

Group A
Iran, France, United States, Czech Republic
Group B
Australia, Germany, Italy and Nigeria
Group C
Argentina, Japan, Spain and Slovenia

The most balanced and competitive group for me is in Group B followed by Group A and C. Australia are the Favorites to finish 1st in Group A but they will face a tougher and reinforced Italy with momentum. The USA are the favorites despite their short preparations and their recent performances. Spain is poised to continue on their run as gold medalists in the world cup.

Floor and Ceiling for these teams

Iran - Iran looks to be the weakest team in the Olympics. Most of their players are old now especially their golden trio of Haddadi, Bahrami and Kamrani. They lost to Spain miserably twice in their preparation games. Recently they also lost to Japan twice. Conclusion, It is hard to see Iran replicating their near upset to Spain in 2019. Thus, Their floor is 12th while their ceiling is that they can at least beat any of their group opponents for one quarter. I expect them to be blown out.

France - France may have lost twice to Spain in their preparation games but they could have easily won those twice as well. As always they have a very solid roster. Expect a strong team that has no weaknesses that I can think of per position. It will come down to coaching and execution for a team like this. Floor for them will be the Semis while their Ceiling is Gold.

USA- The most talented roster in the competition. This team is worth hundreds of millions. If this was a one on one game then no team can come close but as always basketball is a team sport. They looked horrible in their exhibition games and it all thanks of their 1 week preparation before their games. They have the shortest preparation out of all teams. In their first two games, their offensive sets was awful. All they did mostly was poor forced inefficient isolation attempts. In their third game against Argentina they looked a whole lot better even if all they did was some basic Pick and Roll sets. I will still take that over a contested iso jumper. The short preparation really hurts them because most of these players are the number 1 or 2 options in their teams. They are not used to settling picks, role player stuff. Chemistry on the court has to be developed fast. Love and Beal is now out and they are replaced by Mcgee and Keldon. Most people would probably like this development but in my opinion this team got better because for me they need role players. Mcgee was a player under Kerr and Keldon was under Pop, so expect more fluidity. Floor will be silver and Ceiling will be Gold. Nothing less but Gold will be a failure, no matter how much I dislike their preparations I will still have to consider their prestige and talent so they should at least for me be in the final game but I do believe that they will underperform and meet a similar fate to the Canadians in the OQT. I won't be surprised if they got knocked down to the bronze medal game.

Czech Republic - This is a team that proves that talent can be overtaken by chemistry and effort. I never expected them to be the winner of the Victoria OQT. I always thought that Canada or Greece will win it. At that time I leaned more to the Greeks than the Canadians because of their chemistry and preparation but I at least thought that they would meet in the finals. Czech Republic surprised a lot of people including myself. They are in the Olympics for a reason and they deserve their place. I can see them at least in the quarterfinals while their ceiling will be the semis.

Australia - Australia are one of the contenders for the Gold medal and rightfully so. They have steadily improved their placings throughout world competitions. This roster is blessed with talent, they can shoot, they have chemistry, they have defense and in a nutshell they have all the tools to come out as winners of the Olympics. They didn't even play Mills, Dellavedova, Baynes and Ingles and they still managed to outclass Nigeria. You know that you are one of the elite teams in the world when they can easily shrug off Thon Maker. This guy would be a star on lower ranked teams. I expect Australia to do really well in the competition, like France it will all come down to execution and coaching. Floor will be the semis while their ceiling is Gold.

Italy - Italy as always is one of the elite teams in Europe. They play very unselfishly and their perimeter shooting is on point. From 1-5, they all can shoot. This is the team that beat Serbia for a reason. Now plenty would say that Serbia was dealing injuries and etc but you have to consider that Italy missed many of their players as well like Daotome and etc. When you look at it that way than you should expect a strong Italy team in the Olympics. What is interesting for Italy is that Gallinari will be the only addition for this roster. Floor would be the Quarterfinals and their ceiling is Semis.

Germany- Germany is terribly inconsistent especially on their offensive and defensive executions, now duh I know that they won their OQT in Split but if you watched all of their games live in the OQT and I did then you will know exactly what I mean. It could be a preparation issue or etc, I am not that knowledgeable about their length of time together but one way or another they won and they deserve their spot in the Olympics. Their roster is very formidable, all of their players play in the Euro league along with NBA talents like Wagner and Bonga. I expected Dennis to be part of their roster but based on articles he can't join which is a blow for Germany. I expect a more cohesive unit than the one in Split. Floor for them would be the Quarterfinals and their ceiling is Semis.

Nigeria- This team is very athletic, they are arguably the 2nd most athlethic team in the Olympics. Their roster has 8 NBA players, now they may not be all stars but having solid NBA role players are a huge benefit. Nigeria mostly emphasizes on Defense especially with Mike Brown as their coach who is known for his Defensive systems in the NBA. Now I know that they got trashed against the Boomers but they also made some tough 3 pointers against them which is crazy and their is no defense to better offense. I expect Nigeria to run a very thin rotation, I won't be surprised to see Mike Brown play only 7 guys or 8 guys because he is known to run thin rotation in important games in the NBA. Nigeria will no doubt learn from their mistakes against Australia, they should be a better team once the Olympics Start. Floor for them would be the Quarterfinals and their ceiling is Semis.

Spain - Viva la España! This team has been a solid and elite team for years now and despite their age, the way they play basketball is not reliant to athleticism. They beat Iran and France twice and they lost to USA earlier by 7 points. They finish 4-1 in their preparations. What more can I say about this team? They are no doubt one of the contenders for Gold. I expect them to at least make it into the Semis while their ceiling is Gold.

Slovenia - Slovenia looks to ride their momentum from the OQT to the Olympics. Their variation of the 5 out offense is suited for their best player Luka. What is interesting for Slovenia are unlike the other teams, they did not participate on any preparation game. They choose to practice which puzzled me, I guess they have some new sets to surprise teams or they value the players fatigue and recovery. Please comment if they did play a preparation game because I could not find anything. Honestly it would not surprise me if they end up winning the gold because it is really hard to assess if teams could stop Luka. Their 5 out offense is really effective that even if Lithuania double or triple teamed Luka, he will always make the right play. Aside from Luka their players are no joke also. Their roster is full of veterans that have played in the NBA, Euro League, Euro Cup, Liga ACB, basically in the top European level. I expect them to at least make it into the quarter finals while their ceiling is Semis.

Japan - Japan! This is honestly the strongest Asian team that I have seen since the Yao Ming era. They have been developing since 2017 under Lamas. I have seen all of their preparation games and my god they are impressive! They are undefeated in their games with Rui! Without him they still looked impressive! They managed to hold a record of 3-3 without Rui, They beat Iran Twice while losing once, won against Hungary and lost two games against Finland and Belgium. With Rui they dominated Belgium, the way the top teams in Europe would do and Defeated France by 6 points. They have the team that can end the drought of an Asian team not making it in the Quarterfinals. Floor would be them losing all of their games while their ceiling is the Quarterfinals. Nothing against Japan because obviously I like them but I am going with history and I hope that they will prove me wrong and rewrite history by exceeding their expectations.

Argentina - Argentina, what can I say? They are the Silver Medalists of the world cup. Like always they always look poor before the competitions because even in 2019 they also lost some preparation games. Honestly even if they are one of the elite teams, I think they are the weakest elite team like even if they are one of the contenders they are the weakest contender. I know it doesn't make any sense but there is nothing against them but because of their history of having great and strong rosters, this year's team is not that good compared to their previous rosters. They still have some great talent, they have 4 NBA players and their roster is full of players with elite experience. Like Always they are well coached and they have been solid together. I don't know, I just believe that Argentina will let people down this year. I hope that I am wrong but I am leaning towards my intuition. Well I was surprised with their win against Serbia in 2019 and they deserve all the credit. I could be wrong It is not like I am some god. Floor would be the quarter finals while their Ceiling is Semis. Does not mean that they could not win it all, I just think that in my opinion they will fall down this year.

[JamalJokic]

Brief & comprehensive review to the Olympics and Predictions

There are 12 teams participating in the Olympics. To advance to the quarterfinals, the first two-placed teams advance as well as the two best third-placed teams.

Group A
Iran, France, United States, Czech Republic
Group B
Australia, Germany, Italy and Nigeria
Group C
Argentina, Japan, Spain and Slovenia

The most balanced and competitive group for me is in Group B followed by Group A and C. Australia are the Favorites to finish 1st in Group A but they will face a tougher and reinforced Italy with momentum. The USA are the favorites despite their short preparations and their recent performances. Spain is poised to continue on their run as gold medalists in the world cup.

Floor and Ceiling for these teams

Iran - Iran looks to be the weakest team in the Olympics. Most of their players are old now especially their golden trio of Haddadi, Bahrami and Kamrani. They lost to Spain miserably twice in their preparation games. Recently they also lost to Japan twice. Conclusion, It is hard to see Iran replicating their near upset to Spain in 2019. Thus, Their floor is 12th while their ceiling is that they can at least beat any of their group opponents for one quarter. I expect them to be blown out.

France - France may have lost twice to Spain in their preparation games but they could have easily won those twice as well. As always they have a very solid roster. Expect a strong team that has no weaknesses that I can think of per position. It will come down to coaching and execution for a team like this. Floor for them will be the Semis while their Ceiling is Gold.

USA- The most talented roster in the competition. This team is worth hundreds of millions. If this was a one on one game then no team can come close but as always basketball is a team sport. They looked horrible in their exhibition games and it all thanks of their 1 week preparation before their games. They have the shortest preparation out of all teams. In their first two games, their offensive sets was awful. All they did mostly was poor forced inefficient isolation attempts. In their third game against Argentina they looked a whole lot better even if all they did was some basic Pick and Roll sets. I will still take that over a contested iso jumper. The short preparation really hurts them because most of these players are the number 1 or 2 options in their teams. They are not used to settling picks, role player stuff. Chemistry on the court has to be developed fast. Love and Beal is now out and they are replaced by Mcgee and Keldon. Most people would probably like this development but in my opinion this team got better because for me they need role players. Mcgee was a player under Kerr and Keldon was under Pop, so expect more fluidity. Floor will be silver and Ceiling will be Gold. Nothing less but Gold will be a failure, no matter how much I dislike their preparations I will still have to consider their prestige and talent so they should at least for me be in the final game but I do believe that they will underperform and meet a similar fate to the Canadians in the OQT. I won't be surprised if they got knocked down to the bronze medal game.

Czech Republic - This is a team that proves that talent can be overtaken by chemistry and effort. I never expected them to be the winner of the Victoria OQT. I always thought that Canada or Greece will win it. At that time I leaned more to the Greeks than the Canadians because of their chemistry and preparation but I at least thought that they would meet in the finals. Czech Republic surprised a lot of people including myself. They are in the Olympics for a reason and they deserve their place. I can see them at least in the quarterfinals while their ceiling will be the semis.

Australia - Australia are one of the contenders for the Gold medal and rightfully so. They have steadily improved their placings throughout world competitions. This roster is blessed with talent, they can shoot, they have chemistry, they have defense and in a nutshell they have all the tools to come out as winners of the Olympics. They didn't even play Mills, Dellavedova, Baynes and Ingles and they still managed to outclass Nigeria. You know that you are one of the elite teams in the world when they can easily shrug off Thon Maker. This guy would be a star on lower ranked teams. I expect Australia to do really well in the competition, like France it will all come down to execution and coaching. Floor will be the semis while their ceiling is Gold.

Italy - Italy as always is one of the elite teams in Europe. They play very unselfishly and their perimeter shooting is on point. From 1-5, they all can shoot. This is the team that beat Serbia for a reason. Now plenty would say that Serbia was dealing injuries and etc but you have to consider that Italy missed many of their players as well like Daotome and etc. When you look at it that way than you should expect a strong Italy team in the Olympics. What is interesting for Italy is that Gallinari will be the only addition for this roster. Floor would be the Quarterfinals and their ceiling is Semis.

Germany- Germany is terribly inconsistent especially on their offensive and defensive executions, now duh I know that they won their OQT in Split but if you watched all of their games live in the OQT and I did then you will know exactly what I mean. It could be a preparation issue or etc, I am not that knowledgeable about their length of time together but one way or another they won and they deserve their spot in the Olympics. Their roster is very formidable, all of their players play in the Euro league along with NBA talents like Wagner and Bonga. I expected Dennis to be part of their roster but based on articles he can't join which is a blow for Germany. I expect a more cohesive unit than the one in Split. Floor for them would be the Quarterfinals and their ceiling is Semis.

Nigeria- This team is very athletic, they are arguably the 2nd most athlethic team in the Olympics. Their roster has 8 NBA players, now they may not be all stars but having solid NBA role players are a huge benefit. Nigeria mostly emphasizes on Defense especially with Mike Brown as their coach who is known for his Defensive systems in the NBA. Now I know that they got trashed against the Boomers but they also made some tough 3 pointers against them which is crazy and their is no defense to better offense. I expect Nigeria to run a very thin rotation, I won't be surprised to see Mike Brown play only 7 guys or 8 guys because he is known to run thin rotation in important games in the NBA. Nigeria will no doubt learn from their mistakes against Australia, they should be a better team once the Olympics Start. Floor for them would be the Quarterfinals and their ceiling is Semis.

Spain - Viva la España! This team has been a solid and elite team for years now and despite their age, the way they play basketball is not reliant to athleticism. They beat Iran and France twice and they lost to USA earlier by 7 points. They finish 4-1 in their preparations. What more can I say about this team? They are no doubt one of the contenders for Gold. I expect them to at least make it into the Semis while their ceiling is Gold.

Slovenia - Slovenia looks to ride their momentum from the OQT to the Olympics. Their variation of the 5 out offense is suited for their best player Luka. What is interesting for Slovenia are unlike the other teams, they did not participate on any preparation game. They choose to practice which puzzled me, I guess they have some new sets to surprise teams or they value the players fatigue and recovery. Please comment if they did play a preparation game because I could not find anything. Honestly it would not surprise me if they end up winning the gold because it is really hard to assess if teams could stop Luka. Their 5 out offense is really effective that even if Lithuania double or triple teamed Luka, he will always make the right play. Aside from Luka their players are no joke also. Their roster is full of veterans that have played in the NBA, Euro League, Euro Cup, Liga ACB, basically in the top European level. I expect them to at least make it into the quarter finals while their ceiling is Semis.

Japan - Japan! This is honestly the strongest Asian team that I have seen since the Yao Ming era. They have been developing since 2017 under Lamas. I have seen all of their preparation games and my god they are impressive! They are undefeated in their games with Rui! Without him they still looked impressive! They managed to hold a record of 3-3 without Rui, They beat Iran Twice while losing once, won against Hungary and lost two games against Finland and Belgium. With Rui they dominated Belgium, the way the top teams in Europe would do and Defeated France by 6 points. They have the team that can end the drought of an Asian team not making it in the Quarterfinals. Floor would be them losing all of their games while their ceiling is the Quarterfinals. Nothing against Japan because obviously I like them but I am going with history and I hope that they will prove me wrong and rewrite history by exceeding their expectations.

Argentina - Argentina, what can I say? They are the Silver Medalists of the world cup. Like always they always look poor before the competitions because even in 2019 they also lost some preparation games. Honestly even if they are one of the elite teams, I think they are the weakest elite team like even if they are one of the contenders they are the weakest contender. I know it doesn't make any sense but there is nothing against them but because of their history of having great and strong rosters, this year's team is not that good compared to their previous rosters. They still have some great talent, they have 4 NBA players and their roster is full of players with elite experience. Like Always they are well coached and they have been solid together. I don't know, I just believe that Argentina will let people down this year. I hope that I am wrong but I am leaning towards my intuition. Well I was surprised with their win against Serbia in 2019 and they deserve all the credit. I could be wrong It is not like I am some god. Floor would be the quarter finals while their Ceiling is Semis. Does not mean that they could not win it all, I just think that in my opinion they will fall down this year.

I think the ceiling you have for Czech, Italy and Germany is too high. I don’t see any of them going deeper than the quarter finals. To me Germany is by far the weakest team in Group B and I think they had the easiest OQT. The biggest wildcards to me in this tournament are France and Slovenia. I can see both making it to the gold medal game and upsetting any of the top 3 teams in USA, Spain and Australia along the way.

[Stevy]

For those three teams it can be possible but of course highly unlikely. I am just basing this on their performances, they all beat quality teams in the OQT. It would be a a ridiculous prediction if I said that Semis will be their floor, I had these teams ceiling in Semis because they can potentially upset teams in the quarterfinals but of course they would be at a disadvantage. My top 4 teams for the Olympics are of course the United States, Spain, Australia and France. These 4 teams are the only teams where their floor in my opinion is at least in the semis.

[Darrell Armstrong]

For those three teams it can be possible but of course highly unlikely. I am just basing this on their performances, they all beat quality teams in the OQT. It would be a a ridiculous prediction if I said that Semis will be their floor, I had these teams ceiling in Semis because they can potentially upset teams in the quarterfinals but of course they would be at a disadvantage. My top 4 teams for the Olympics are of course the United States, Spain, Australia and France. These 4 teams are the only teams where their floor in my opinion is at least in the semis.

Yours was a nice post, but you may want to review your predictions. You are claiming that all of the teams in group B are going to reach quarterfinals at least (that's not possible), and basically only Iran and Japan will not advance. At least two other teams will be eliminated in the first round.

[Stevy]

Yours was a nice post, but you may want to review your predictions. You are claiming that all of the teams in group B are going to reach quarterfinals at least (that's not possible), and basically only Iran and Japan will not advance. At least two other teams will be eliminated in the first round.

I know man it is fairly obvious, It is just hard to predict and that is the beauty of basketball. Favorites in the OQT are gone and I think I have assessed all of the teams fairly. It is just that I am not discounting any of the teams. I know that only 8 will advance, I just refuse to diminish their potential to make it into the quarterfinals. I recognize the two other teams and their efforts. I can only say for certain that Iran and Japan has the lowest chances to make it into the next round but Group B is just hard to think about for me. I recognize their accomplishments especially Germany and Italy, they beat quality teams in the OQT plus longer preparations/roster changes for the Olympics. Nigeria is also looking formidable. I can't predict it properly but I do know that this group will be the most competitive.

I know for a fact that Group A's Third placer would probably advance especially with their wins against Iran through point differential. So France, United States, Czech Republic is probably a lock for me. Group B will be the most competitive and I think Australia will be the top placer while for Group C depending if Japan can maintain their form throughout their preparations it would probably blowouts thus the third placer for this group is probably a lock also.

It will be tough for teams in Group B that's for sure. Also my top 4 teams are USA, SPAIN, AUSTRALIA and FRANCE, these were the only teams with semis as a floor in my opinion.

[Darrell Armstrong]

It will be tough for teams in Group B that's for sure. Also my top 4 teams are USA, SPAIN, AUSTRALIA and FRANCE, these were the only teams with semis as a floor in my opinion.

I agree. But to be fair, if you can't put any of those teams in group B over the rest, you need to assign all of them a reasonable floor: failing to advance. Because that's what will happen for one or two of them.

I also think those four teams are the strongest on paper, but I have the feeling this tournament is going to be full of surprises. I'm not even discarding some of the top four teams being ousted in the first round.

[Stevy]

I agree. But to be fair, if you can't put any of those teams in group B over the rest, you need to assign all of them a reasonable floor: failing to advance. Because that's what will happen for one or two of them.

I also think those four teams are the strongest on paper, but I have the feeling this tournament is going to be full of surprises. I'm not even discarding some of the top four teams being ousted in the first round.

I agree man, unfortunately I just can't predict Group B properly the only lock in teams that I am more confident that would make it in the quarters in my opinion is France, United States, Czech Republic, Argentina, Australia, Spain and Slovenia. That top 2 spot for group B is hard to assess, in the end I think it would go down to point differential. I even think that Japan can potentially upset Argentina but that is more on my favoritism because I am Asian. I do like Japan's recent form but in the end it was all preparation games and they need to translate it into a victory. The Olympics will be interesting that is for sure but I do hope that instead of 12 teams in the future if it is possible than I would like it if there are 4 teams more. It sucks not to see Olympic Quality teams like Serbia, Lithuania, Greece, Canada and etc. Honestly Iran shouldn't even be there if we compare it to teams that did not make the cut but of course they earned their place by being the best Asian team and someone has to represent Asia one thing or another.

[eal]

I do not like this new format at all. Two groups of six was the best and most equitable format. There is little integrity when it comes to separating third-placed teams that have all played different opposition.

[Darrell Armstrong]

I do not like this new format at all. Two groups of six was the best and most equitable format. There is little integrity when it comes to separating third-placed teams that have all played different opposition.

But you get rid of losing games on purpose. The issue you mention already existed before: a team could be better than most of the teams from the other group that advanced to the quarterfinals and still be eliminated because it was placed in the strongest group.

[each way]

Well Day 1 in the books.

Australia struggled in the first half against Nigeria but then they blew them out in the last quarter. Patty Mills again proves he turns into MJ when playing for his country.

USA lose and show once against sum of all parts doesn't make a great team. I don't know how they can find chemistry in such a short span.

[Hepcat]

Patty Mills again proves he turns into MJ when playing for his country.

My hats off to Patty Mills. That's the way it should be.

[JGX]

Luka/Tobey time let's go

It's only the second day and I'm sure the time zone has an effect but having only four games per day really detracts from the tournament. Used to be that there was a basketball game on at almost all times for the first ten days, now it is just another event that pops up occasionally.

[Katastroika]

Dončić is unreal!!

[Katastroika]

I am fucking speechless. Greatest domination I have ever seen in FIBA. Grejmo Slovenci, grejmo Luka!!