Future forecasts for WC participants

[JGX]

How does everyone look for 2012 and beyond?

USA--you never know who is going to play, but there was clearly a sensational generation born between 84 and 88. Potentially on the rise.

Turkey--Mix of talented young players and veterans, will probably maintain a decent level of performance. They have benefited from home advantage here but maybe the success will propel them forward.

Serbia--Clearly on the rise with a young team.

Lithuania--encouraging performance with a young team here but of course they are losing talented veterans as well. Should maintain their status as semifinal contenders.

Spain--Disappointing tournament for them IMO as they proved to be ordinary without Pau Gasol. Pau/Navarro/Reyes will be 32 in 2012 and Garbajosa is older, probably their last run with this team. They have some young talent but I would expect a slight decline after London.

Russia--Blatt has gotten a lot out of them, how will they do once he leaves? As robbe noted they lack individual talent. I say decline.

Argentina--Everyone knows they are old. Still an okay team in the future but on the way down.

Slovenia--Quarterfinals was probably their limit. Slight decline as Lakovic/Nachbar/Becirovic/Brezec age.

Greece--Downward trend from 2006 to 08 to 10 is unmistakable. But you could also say there was some luck in their 2005-06 run and they've been mainly been a quarterfinal-level team. They have good young talent and should maintain a similar level.

Croatia--On the rise if their young bigs continue to develop.

Brazil--Mangnano is a big help but this is quietly becoming an old team. 2012 is their best shot. 8 of the 12 in Turkey (plus Nene) were born between 80 and 83 and they'll have to start replacing those players after London.

China--No idea if Yao will come back or how strong he will be but will probably continue to sneak into the second round and lose.

New Zealand--Penney has a few tournaments left in him and Abercrombie was one of the revelations of the tournament but they probably will continue to top out as a second round team.

Angola--At some point they'll need to replace Lutonda, Mingas, Cipriano. I don't see any indication that the newer talent is as good. Always the steadiest of the African teams, but their performance at the WC should decline while they remain dependably awful at the Olympics.

Australia--Despite the second-round elimination there were encouraging elements to their performance. If Mills develops in the next couple years and Bogut participates, they'll be better in London.

France--With their youth team performances and NBA players in their primes, they should be better on paper, but again you don't know who will play, and the offense is still a big problem.

Iran--They look to be on an upward trend and Haddadi is only 25, but they're still a long way from challenging good teams.

Tunisia--Ben Slimane will be a little bit balder in the future.

Puerto Rico--The curse is still in effect. Arroyo is getting old but they didn't seem to play any worse without him.

Ivory Coast--The experience from this year should help them. Keep in mind that their starting PG and top european pro (Amagou) barely played. Not impossible for them to knock off Angola next year, but OTOH they'll have to deal with Nigeria and the others as well.

Germany--Down from where they were with Dirk, but with a young team they'll presumably improve on this year's showing.

Jordan--Probably downhill with an old team but maybe they'll bring in a good naturalized player.

Lebanon--See Jordan.

Canada--Carl English would have helped (he's been healthy enough to play preseason games in Spain...), but they aren't going anywhere with this group of players. Strong youth results might indicate future improvements, or it might just mean they're taking youth tournaments more seriously. They need a real coach.

[Blackway]

Most Euro teams are going (or should be going) through a generation change, so it's really hard to say what will become of them.

[alermac]

Argentina: should be a bit more powerful in 2012 with Ginóbili, Nocioni and a bit deeper bench. After that, things do not look well.

Brazil: on the rise for the next 4 years.

France: should be looking up with all its youth talent, but...

Germany: like Argentina, does not look well after Dirk.

[kizilelma]

USA--you never know who is going to play, but there was clearly a sensational generation born between 84 and 88. Potentially on the rise.

Turkey--Mix of talented young players and veterans, will probably maintain a decent level of performance. They have benefited from home advantage here but maybe the success will propel them forward.

Serbia--Clearly on the rise with a young team.

i definetely agree with you.

[robbe]

Interesting phase for European basketball. I'd say that even the 2004 USA team could win this current tournament. That's a mix of key players being absent, and European basketball + Argentina going through a generation change.

Every team needs some difference makers. Look at Serbia for example: Countless of incredibly well-schooled versatile players, hard working, but they need a creative head like Teodosic and a lowpost presence (Kristic) to play worldclass basketball. Otherwise they might lose against Germany. The same can be said for Spain and Pau. They're still on a good level without him, but not really elite level. And if I may say that, if Marc wasn't Pau's brother, Fran Vazquez would have played the lion share of minutes at center this tournament. The guy is incredibly efficient on offense and a great defensive presence, should have been given much more minutes.

USA will bring talent to make the semifinals or finals whenever they want due to outstanding depth. But Durant is really an exceptional player. Not that I didn't expect it, brings everything you need to do well on this level. Can't say I'm too impressed by the rest of this roster (although Iguodala on D, Love in limited minutes and Odom when he's up for it have been playing their part). The point guards in particular. When Derrick Rose hears pick and roll, he thinks McDonalds drive-in. But that's obviously not the NBA game. It's transition and isos for the most talented guy(s). Pick and roll is basically a ballscreen for the ballhandler to get his shot off.

Greece will have a tough time. Diamantidis out, Tsartsaris out, Papaloukas unlikely to return. Still on a good level, but not a title challenger anymore. Their new "leaders" (Spanoulis, Bourousis) with questionable leadership skills. Don't see a floor general type of player either.

As for my country, I really hope the young guys make the next soon, but I doubt it. There are many reasons why they are not developing as they should, but that would be too much for this thread. I'm not even allowed to talk about everything on that matter.

France needs a decent point guard. like many European teams. Lithuania desperately looking for a Saras successor. With the DD, Saras, Papaloukas generation out, Serbia and Spain have a big plus here over the rest of Europe.

[pohani komarac]

How does everyone look for 2012 and beyond?

if it's some other sport we could asume how good some teams will be judging by players potetial, but it's basketball and i think it's better open thread where we will talk wich player, a future star will need rest, get merride, work on familiy problems, swim in sea, make a movie or something during big championship

[yessuz]

How does everyone look for 2012 and beyond?


Lithuania--encouraging performance with a young team here but of course they are losing talented veterans as well. Should maintain their status as semifinal contenders.

Well, this year we had NO veterans in this team (excluding Javtokas). Therefore, the future for this team look bright.

[Genjuro]

It's amazing how strong is the 77-82 generation in Europe/South America. It's going to be very difficult to replace them.

Serbia appears to be the only country ready to take over (precisely the country among those with basketball tradition that couldn't come up with a good generation in those years). If Pau Gasol doesn't play the next Eurobasket, I say they are the early favourites to win it.

I have a problem with Turkey's future: their frountcourt looks outstanding, but they are not producing high-quality backcourt players. Tunceri is getting old, Arslan is not any kid and he's (probably always be) an inconsistent guy. The likes of Onan or Güler are nice team players, but that's all. Akyol is so far a big dissapointment (I used to like him a lot).

[bobo81]

What are European countries doing to develop their younger generations? I mean they obviously do not have college ball on a large scale. Bringing in young players to the national team only works out for a few. What about academy programs which allow younger players more games and better coaching? I think having these players exposed to more of the game rather than just playing in the u-15,19,21 stuff would be more efficient.

[fordham baldy]

The future=Usa domination.

Tonight is the last chance of Euros to celebrate a victory against a Usa C-team,the 2012 olympics where cream of crop will return will be a massacre.

[pohani komarac]

What are European countries doing to develop their younger generations? I mean they obviously do not have college ball on a large scale. Bringing in young players to the national team only works out for a few. What about academy programs which allow younger players more games and better coaching? I think having these players exposed to more of the game rather than just playing in the u-15,19,21 stuff would be more efficient.

euro countries have their clubs who develope players, those players are just bit developed in their nt's, bigest job is done in clubs. young euro players pratice and play basketball in youth categories for their clubs, when time comes those clubs move them to thier senior teams

[mvblair]

In no particular order:

• USA - I have no idea what the roster will look like, but I would like to see these WC players back for the NT. Team USA will never be as dominant as they were in the '90s, but they will always be contenders for the Gold. No other team has the depth that they have. Team on the rise.
• Lithuania - Some of their veterans are leaving, yes, and they do not have Saras anymore. As long as there is Lithuania, this team will be powerful. Team on the rise, but with big changes.
• Spain - Spain is good. Pau is the best big forward on the planet. But their players are getting older. They could contend for Gold in London if they bring all their players, but after that, this team is on the decline.
• Germany - I was not impressed at all. Dirk may or may not show up for London. Even with him and Kaman, this is not a contending team and things aren't getting better. On the decline.
• Russia - With Holden getting older and probably gone from the team, I think they really struggle with playmaking. Their young ball handlers cannot shoot well. Russia has some good big men, but besides that, I think they look bad. Can they find some replacements soon? Team on the decline.
• Argentina - Such a wonderful team. They're clearing getting old. I think you can count on a few injuries to Oberto, Manu, Nocioni, Delfino, Kammerichs, and Scola. Not all of them will play. I like their young player Cequeira a lot, but I don't see too many great players coming up. I think they will be disappointing in London. Team on the decline.
• Slovenia - I was not very impressed. Slovenia has players in every league on the planet, so I think they can replace their veterans and stay a pretty formidable power. Stays the same.
• Croatia - Croatia brought a bunch of blue-eyed, wet-eared kids to Turkey. How can they go down? No doubts for me. Team on the rise.
• Turkey - Turkey has great players in so many leagues. Yeah, a few guys are getting old, but they've got some good, young athletes, too. Can they stay organized and smart? I think so. Team on the rise.
• Brazil - This was the first time Brazil had their whole team together, and injuries hurt them. Injuries will hurt them in the future, too. Brazil will produce some good individual talents, but I don't see them developing a solid national team for a few more years. Stays the same.
• China - I really don't know. I really have no idea. They are on the decline since the days of the Great Walking Wall. Yao Ming is the planet's best center, but I will be surprised if he plays major minutes in London. Team on the decline, probably.
• Lebanon - This team will always be pretty good. They put players in different leagues and have great domestic talents. El-Khatib is getting older though. London will probably be his last stop. I think they will find a replacement for him soon. Like Lithuania, Angola, Serbia, this is a basketball country.
• Canada - Oh, Canada, such potential. When will you live up to it? Time and again, Canada proves that they have no interest in developing a solid national program. They live off good individual talents rather than good teams. Stays the same.
• New Zealand - Penney was beautiful this tournament. But behind him, what does New Zealand really have? Maybe there are a few players in the NCAA wings. Goes to London and gets bounced. Team on the decline.
• Angola - Like Lithuania, Serbia, and a few other countries, I think Angola will always show up at these tournaments. They could not compete with the best teams, but they will go and fight. I love that. Stays the same.
• Australia - Their run in Turkey disappointed me. Australia was a dark-horse team, I thought. I still think they will be good in the future. They seem to be putting some good players onto the international scene and have had many good players in the NCAA for many years. Team on the rise.
• Tunisia - For a national team that is made up of non-salaried pro-am players, Tunisia is pretty good. They cannot compete for medals. Stays the same.
• Puerto Rico - I thought this was another dark-horse team. They will always have no players coming and going. PJ Ramos was very good. Stays the same.
• Greece - I hope they didn't max out. 2005 and 2006 were great years for them, yes. Their veterans are leaving, but like Team USA, they found pretty good replacements. Team on the rise.
• France - Like JGX said, this team should always be good on paper. They have good defenders and good offensive players. They seem to have everything but France can never put it all together. Stays the same.
• Iran - They won't challenge for a medal, but they could have gotten to the second round if they had a healthy Afagh and Nikkhah. This team looks pretty good when healthy. Stays the same.
• Ivory Coast - They've got some decent players here. They have great players in the NCAA and because of that, I think this team will challenge on the African scene. Stays the same.
• Jordan - Jordan was OK. They played about what I expected. They're decent with some experience, but they need to get their players out into other leagues. Stays the same.
• Serbia - Like Team USA, I think Serbia is always going to be a basketball power. Even in their recent bad years, everybody knew they would emerge. Team on the rise.

[bobo81]

euro countries have their clubs who develope players, those players are just bit developed in their nt's, bigest job is done in clubs. young euro players pratice and play basketball in youth categories for their clubs, when time comes those clubs move them to thier senior teams

Wow, I forgot about clubs.

[PRSURF]

MVBLAIR
Puerto Rico - I thought this was another dark-horse team. They will always have no players coming and going. PJ Ramos was very good. Stays the same.

Puerto Rico is a dark-horse team, but we get robbed badly in a hard group.

7 players where new in this WC, Huertas, Balkman, Peavy, Vassallo and Barea are the new hard coming guys...with a lot of potential in NCAA. I don't think we will still the same with other coach, you will see...

[bobo81]

The future=Usa domination.

Tonight is the last chance of Euros to celebrate a victory against a Usa C-team,the 2012 olympics where cream of crop will return will be a massacre.

It depends on who we send. Honestly I would not mind us sending a team filled with mid-star players, even first year NBA players. I think it's obvious we lack experience with grouping the same players together for a greater duration. We need players to play with each other much more.