WC 2010 - IBN Game

[Migelitas]

rus-civ
nzl-lib
pur-chn
fra-can
gre-tur
esp-ltu

[Franz]

rus-civ
nzl-lib
pur-chn
fra-can
gre-tur
esp-ltu

[Ilya]

day four

rus-civ
nzl-lib
pur-chn
fra-can
gre-tur
esp-ltu

[rikhardur]

Day four - fixtures
rus-civ russia
nzl-lib lebanon
pur-chn puerto rico
fra-can france
gre-tur greece
esp-ltu spain

[Gytaz]

Congratulations to Adon for being the Day Three winner, with a perfect score!!! Unfortunately, a few participants (Tevez32, Luiz for 3, re5pectas) did not submit their predictions in time and thus their entries were not accepted. Once again, I am sorry about this.

Well, you could accept predictions for games which started after the predictions were submitted.

My day 4 predictions:

rus-civ
nzl-lib
pur-chn
fra-can
gre-tur
esp-ltu

[tensai]

rus-civ
nzl-lib
pur-chn
fra-can
gre-tur
esp-ltu

[vanx]

rus-civ
nzl-lib
pur-chn
fra-can
gre-tur
esp-ltu

[CG]

rus-civ 1
nzl-lib 1
pur-chn 1
fra-can 1
gre-tur 2
esp-ltu 1

[christodoulou76]

Well, you could accept predictions for games which started after the predictions were submitted.

My day 4 predictions:

rus-civ
nzl-lib
pur-chn
fra-can
gre-tur
esp-ltu

Thanks for your input. My thought on this is that partial submissions are inherently unfair to other contestants. Imagine if BRA-USA was one of the early games today. Everyone picks USA to win. Brazil wins in a huge upset. Now the player who submitted a partial scorecard avoids the -2 points that almost everyone else incurs. In other words, making a prediction comes with risk. And partial submissions avoid some of that risk. Now, the expected value for any prediction is positive even for the most uncertain games (most uncertain game will have a 50-50 odds, giving the player .5*5 + .5*-2=1.5 expected value, which is positive). So on the basis of the expected value, it would seem that players who submit partial scorecards are only hurting themselves. But there is a chance of a major upset, in which case they have avoided the negative points incurred by other players. And this is isn't fair because had they made their prediction for that upset game, it is highly probable that they would have not picked the upset. In all, the fairest thing to do is to invalidate partial and late submissions from the process. If there is overwhelming support for accepting such submissions, I can change the rules. I am your humble servant.

[auris1]

rus-civ
nzl-lib
pur-chn
fra-can
gre-tur
esp-ltu

[Beva]

rus-civ
nzl-lib
pur-chn
fra-can
gre-tur
esp-ltu

[Gytaz]

Thanks for your input. My thought on this is that partial submissions are inherently unfair to other contestants. Imagine if BRA-USA was one of the early games today. Everyone picks USA to win. Brazil wins in a huge upset. Now the player who submitted a partial scorecard avoids the -2 points that almost everyone else incurs. In other words, making a prediction comes with risk. And partial submissions avoid some of that risk. Now, the expected value for any prediction is positive even for the most uncertain games (most uncertain game will have a 50-50 odds, giving the player .5*5 + .5*-2=1.5 expected value, which is positive). So on the basis of the expected value, it would seem that players who submit partial scorecards are only hurting themselves. But there is a chance of a major upset, in which case they have avoided the negative points incurred by other players. And this is isn't fair because had they made their prediction for that upset game, it is highly probable that they would have not picked the upset. In all, the fairest thing to do is to invalidate partial and late submissions from the process. If there is overwhelming support for accepting such submissions, I can change the rules. I am your humble servant.

Still, it's not like anyone's submitting the predictions late on purpose. And I don't feel like accepting them would be unfair to me at all.

+ I'm afraid that one day I might be unable or forget to submit the predictions on time, that would suck.

Still, you're the one who's running the game, do what seems fairest to you.

[melizei]

rus-civ
nzl-lib
pur-chn
fra-can
gre-tur
esp-ltu

[Lewis]

rus-civ
nzl-lib
pur-chn
fra-can
gre-tur
esp-ltu

[Dtown]

RUS-CIV = Russia
NZL-LIB = Lebanon
PUR-CHN = Puerto Rico
FRA-CAN = France
GRE-TUR = Turkey
ESP-LTU = Spain