[MV - you might want to move this to the group stage prediction thread. I doubt many others will want to go through the tedium of coming up with these percentages. But I am crazy so here goes].
Group position prediction with percentages require that the sum of percentages for each team and each position equal one hundred. This type of prediction allows us to perform variance analysis to identify the most unpredictable teams, most closely contested positions and groups, etc.
Group A:
1st: Serbia 50, Argentina 40, Australia 10
2nd: Argentina 45, Serbia 40, Australia 15
3rd: Australia 50, Germany 25, Argentina 15, Serbia 10
4th: Germany 45, Angola 30, Australia 25
5th: Angola 50, Germany 30, Jordan 20
6th: Jordan 80, Angola 20
Serbia: 1st: 50, 2nd: 40, 3rd: 10
Argentina: 1st: 40. 2nd: 45, 3rd: 15
Australia: 1st: 10, 2nd: 15, 3rd: 50, 4th: 25
Germany: 3rd 25, 4th: 45 5th: 30
Angola: 4th: 30, 5th: 50, 6th: 20
Jordan: 5th: 20, 6th: 80
In this group, 3rd place will likely be the most hotly contested position and Australia is the most unpredictable team in the group. Australia has about as much chance to win the group as to finish second - both can be achieved with one win over ether Serbia or Argentina and favorable points differentials and other results. Both are long shots. This group has clear favorites for positions 3-6, and two teams with nearly equal chances to win first place.
Group B:
1st: USA: 70, Brazil: 20, Slovenia: 10
2nd: Brazil: 35, Slovenia: 25, USA: 20, Croatia: 20
3rd: Slovenia: 35, Croatia: 30, Brazil: 25, USA: 10
4th: Croatia: 40, Slovenia 30, Brazil: 20, Iran 10
5th: Iran 65, Tunisia 25, Croatia 10
6th: Tunisia 75, Iran 25
USA: 1st: 70, 2nd: 20, 3rd: 10
Brazil: 1st: 20, 2nd: 35, 3rd: 25, 4th: 20
Slovenia: 1st: 10, 2nd: 25, 3rd: 35, 4th: 30
Croatia: 2nd: 20, 3rd: 30, 4th: 40, 5th: 10
Iran: 4th: 10, 5th: 65, 6th: 25
Tunisia: 5th: 25, 6th: 75
This group has clear favorites for positions 1, 5-6 and highly contested races for positions 2-4. Brazil, Croatia and Slovenia are unpredictable and evenly matched. While positions 1-2 are the most hotly contested in Group A, in Group B it is positions 2-4 that are most competitive. The chances of an underdog team making it to the 1/8 finals is less likely in this group than it is in Group A, because Germany (the favorite for 4th place in Group A) is weaker than Croatia (the favorite for 4th place in Group B).
Group C:
1st: Greece 45, Turkey 35, Puerto Rico 15, Russia 5
2nd: Turkey 40, Greece 35, Puerto Rico 15 Russia 10
3rd: Puerto Rico 30, Russia 25, Turkey 25, Greece 20
4th: Russia 40, Puerto Rico 35, China 25
5th: China 60, Russia 20, CIV 15, Puerto Rico 5
6th: CIV 85, China 15
Greece: 1st: 45, 2nd 35, 3rd 20
Turkey: 1st: 35, 2nd 40, 3rd 25
Puerto Rico: 1st 15, 2nd 15, 3rd 30, 4th 35, 5th 5
Russia: 1st: 5, 2nd: 10, 3rd: 25, 4th: 40, 5th: 20
China: 4th 25, 5th 60, 6th 15
CIV: 5th 15, 6th 85
This group is very unpredictable. Puerto Rico and Russia could wind up anywhere from 1st to 5th. Turkey and Greece are favorites for the first two spots but not by much over a strong Puerto Rico squad and a well-coached Russian side. The most predictable positions are 5-6.
Group D:
1st: Spain 80, Lithuania 10, France 10
2nd: Lithuania 40, France 20, Canada 20, Spain 20
3rd: France 35, Canada 35, Lithuania 30
4th: New Zealand 30, Canada 25, France 25, Lithuania 20
5th: New Zealand: 35, Lebanon: 35, Canada: 20, France: 10
6th: Lebanon: 65, New Zealand: 35
Spain: 1st: 80, 2nd:20
Lithuania: 1st: 10, 2nd: 40, 3rd: 30, 4th: 20
France: 1st: 10, 2nd: 20, 3rd: 35, 4th: 25, 5th: 10
Canada: 2nd: 20, 3rd: 35, 4th: 25, 5th: 20
New Zealand: 4th: 30, 5th: 35, 6th: 35
Lebanon: 5th: 35, 6th: 65
This group has the clearest favorite for 1st place, Spain, largely because it has the weakest 2-3 position teams. By contrast, this group features very competitive races for 4-6 positions. France is the most unpredictable team.
What do you think of my percentage predictions? What percentages would you assign?
Group position prediction with percentages require that the sum of percentages for each team and each position equal one hundred. This type of prediction allows us to perform variance analysis to identify the most unpredictable teams, most closely contested positions and groups, etc.
Group A:
1st: Serbia 50, Argentina 40, Australia 10
2nd: Argentina 45, Serbia 40, Australia 15
3rd: Australia 50, Germany 25, Argentina 15, Serbia 10
4th: Germany 45, Angola 30, Australia 25
5th: Angola 50, Germany 30, Jordan 20
6th: Jordan 80, Angola 20
Serbia: 1st: 50, 2nd: 40, 3rd: 10
Argentina: 1st: 40. 2nd: 45, 3rd: 15
Australia: 1st: 10, 2nd: 15, 3rd: 50, 4th: 25
Germany: 3rd 25, 4th: 45 5th: 30
Angola: 4th: 30, 5th: 50, 6th: 20
Jordan: 5th: 20, 6th: 80
In this group, 3rd place will likely be the most hotly contested position and Australia is the most unpredictable team in the group. Australia has about as much chance to win the group as to finish second - both can be achieved with one win over ether Serbia or Argentina and favorable points differentials and other results. Both are long shots. This group has clear favorites for positions 3-6, and two teams with nearly equal chances to win first place.
Group B:
1st: USA: 70, Brazil: 20, Slovenia: 10
2nd: Brazil: 35, Slovenia: 25, USA: 20, Croatia: 20
3rd: Slovenia: 35, Croatia: 30, Brazil: 25, USA: 10
4th: Croatia: 40, Slovenia 30, Brazil: 20, Iran 10
5th: Iran 65, Tunisia 25, Croatia 10
6th: Tunisia 75, Iran 25
USA: 1st: 70, 2nd: 20, 3rd: 10
Brazil: 1st: 20, 2nd: 35, 3rd: 25, 4th: 20
Slovenia: 1st: 10, 2nd: 25, 3rd: 35, 4th: 30
Croatia: 2nd: 20, 3rd: 30, 4th: 40, 5th: 10
Iran: 4th: 10, 5th: 65, 6th: 25
Tunisia: 5th: 25, 6th: 75
This group has clear favorites for positions 1, 5-6 and highly contested races for positions 2-4. Brazil, Croatia and Slovenia are unpredictable and evenly matched. While positions 1-2 are the most hotly contested in Group A, in Group B it is positions 2-4 that are most competitive. The chances of an underdog team making it to the 1/8 finals is less likely in this group than it is in Group A, because Germany (the favorite for 4th place in Group A) is weaker than Croatia (the favorite for 4th place in Group B).
Group C:
1st: Greece 45, Turkey 35, Puerto Rico 15, Russia 5
2nd: Turkey 40, Greece 35, Puerto Rico 15 Russia 10
3rd: Puerto Rico 30, Russia 25, Turkey 25, Greece 20
4th: Russia 40, Puerto Rico 35, China 25
5th: China 60, Russia 20, CIV 15, Puerto Rico 5
6th: CIV 85, China 15
Greece: 1st: 45, 2nd 35, 3rd 20
Turkey: 1st: 35, 2nd 40, 3rd 25
Puerto Rico: 1st 15, 2nd 15, 3rd 30, 4th 35, 5th 5
Russia: 1st: 5, 2nd: 10, 3rd: 25, 4th: 40, 5th: 20
China: 4th 25, 5th 60, 6th 15
CIV: 5th 15, 6th 85
This group is very unpredictable. Puerto Rico and Russia could wind up anywhere from 1st to 5th. Turkey and Greece are favorites for the first two spots but not by much over a strong Puerto Rico squad and a well-coached Russian side. The most predictable positions are 5-6.
Group D:
1st: Spain 80, Lithuania 10, France 10
2nd: Lithuania 40, France 20, Canada 20, Spain 20
3rd: France 35, Canada 35, Lithuania 30
4th: New Zealand 30, Canada 25, France 25, Lithuania 20
5th: New Zealand: 35, Lebanon: 35, Canada: 20, France: 10
6th: Lebanon: 65, New Zealand: 35
Spain: 1st: 80, 2nd:20
Lithuania: 1st: 10, 2nd: 40, 3rd: 30, 4th: 20
France: 1st: 10, 2nd: 20, 3rd: 35, 4th: 25, 5th: 10
Canada: 2nd: 20, 3rd: 35, 4th: 25, 5th: 20
New Zealand: 4th: 30, 5th: 35, 6th: 35
Lebanon: 5th: 35, 6th: 65
This group has the clearest favorite for 1st place, Spain, largely because it has the weakest 2-3 position teams. By contrast, this group features very competitive races for 4-6 positions. France is the most unpredictable team.
What do you think of my percentage predictions? What percentages would you assign?
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