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Group Stage Prediction - with Percentages

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  • Group Stage Prediction - with Percentages

    [MV - you might want to move this to the group stage prediction thread. I doubt many others will want to go through the tedium of coming up with these percentages. But I am crazy so here goes].

    Group position prediction with percentages require that the sum of percentages for each team and each position equal one hundred. This type of prediction allows us to perform variance analysis to identify the most unpredictable teams, most closely contested positions and groups, etc.

    Group A:
    1st: Serbia 50, Argentina 40, Australia 10
    2nd: Argentina 45, Serbia 40, Australia 15
    3rd: Australia 50, Germany 25, Argentina 15, Serbia 10
    4th: Germany 45, Angola 30, Australia 25
    5th: Angola 50, Germany 30, Jordan 20
    6th: Jordan 80, Angola 20

    Serbia: 1st: 50, 2nd: 40, 3rd: 10
    Argentina: 1st: 40. 2nd: 45, 3rd: 15
    Australia: 1st: 10, 2nd: 15, 3rd: 50, 4th: 25
    Germany: 3rd 25, 4th: 45 5th: 30
    Angola: 4th: 30, 5th: 50, 6th: 20
    Jordan: 5th: 20, 6th: 80

    In this group, 3rd place will likely be the most hotly contested position and Australia is the most unpredictable team in the group. Australia has about as much chance to win the group as to finish second - both can be achieved with one win over ether Serbia or Argentina and favorable points differentials and other results. Both are long shots. This group has clear favorites for positions 3-6, and two teams with nearly equal chances to win first place.

    Group B:
    1st: USA: 70, Brazil: 20, Slovenia: 10
    2nd: Brazil: 35, Slovenia: 25, USA: 20, Croatia: 20
    3rd: Slovenia: 35, Croatia: 30, Brazil: 25, USA: 10
    4th: Croatia: 40, Slovenia 30, Brazil: 20, Iran 10
    5th: Iran 65, Tunisia 25, Croatia 10
    6th: Tunisia 75, Iran 25

    USA: 1st: 70, 2nd: 20, 3rd: 10
    Brazil: 1st: 20, 2nd: 35, 3rd: 25, 4th: 20
    Slovenia: 1st: 10, 2nd: 25, 3rd: 35, 4th: 30
    Croatia: 2nd: 20, 3rd: 30, 4th: 40, 5th: 10
    Iran: 4th: 10, 5th: 65, 6th: 25
    Tunisia: 5th: 25, 6th: 75

    This group has clear favorites for positions 1, 5-6 and highly contested races for positions 2-4. Brazil, Croatia and Slovenia are unpredictable and evenly matched. While positions 1-2 are the most hotly contested in Group A, in Group B it is positions 2-4 that are most competitive. The chances of an underdog team making it to the 1/8 finals is less likely in this group than it is in Group A, because Germany (the favorite for 4th place in Group A) is weaker than Croatia (the favorite for 4th place in Group B).

    Group C:
    1st: Greece 45, Turkey 35, Puerto Rico 15, Russia 5
    2nd: Turkey 40, Greece 35, Puerto Rico 15 Russia 10
    3rd: Puerto Rico 30, Russia 25, Turkey 25, Greece 20
    4th: Russia 40, Puerto Rico 35, China 25
    5th: China 60, Russia 20, CIV 15, Puerto Rico 5
    6th: CIV 85, China 15

    Greece: 1st: 45, 2nd 35, 3rd 20
    Turkey: 1st: 35, 2nd 40, 3rd 25
    Puerto Rico: 1st 15, 2nd 15, 3rd 30, 4th 35, 5th 5
    Russia: 1st: 5, 2nd: 10, 3rd: 25, 4th: 40, 5th: 20
    China: 4th 25, 5th 60, 6th 15
    CIV: 5th 15, 6th 85

    This group is very unpredictable. Puerto Rico and Russia could wind up anywhere from 1st to 5th. Turkey and Greece are favorites for the first two spots but not by much over a strong Puerto Rico squad and a well-coached Russian side. The most predictable positions are 5-6.

    Group D:
    1st: Spain 80, Lithuania 10, France 10
    2nd: Lithuania 40, France 20, Canada 20, Spain 20
    3rd: France 35, Canada 35, Lithuania 30
    4th: New Zealand 30, Canada 25, France 25, Lithuania 20
    5th: New Zealand: 35, Lebanon: 35, Canada: 20, France: 10
    6th: Lebanon: 65, New Zealand: 35

    Spain: 1st: 80, 2nd:20
    Lithuania: 1st: 10, 2nd: 40, 3rd: 30, 4th: 20
    France: 1st: 10, 2nd: 20, 3rd: 35, 4th: 25, 5th: 10
    Canada: 2nd: 20, 3rd: 35, 4th: 25, 5th: 20
    New Zealand: 4th: 30, 5th: 35, 6th: 35
    Lebanon: 5th: 35, 6th: 65

    This group has the clearest favorite for 1st place, Spain, largely because it has the weakest 2-3 position teams. By contrast, this group features very competitive races for 4-6 positions. France is the most unpredictable team.

    What do you think of my percentage predictions? What percentages would you assign?

  • #2
    definitily i would lower Spains % and raise Lituanias.

    Comment


    • #3
      argentina

      why do people always underestimate argentina? there not going away so stop trying to force it. this started in 2006 when they won gold in athens.that they are getting old and what not. they are the no1 ranked team by fiba, semifinalist in the last 4 major tournaments. serbia is not going to take them out. serbia is too young. i think 2012 is their coming out party. it upsets me as a fiba fan that every year argentina is predicted by the fans to lose in the 1/4 and argentina makes semis and then everybody forgets and repeats it the next year and nobody calls them out. argentina will be in the final this year, 5 straight semis.i donno if they will win it but they will be there. they have been the most consistent team in the world this decade. 2012 will roll around and somebody will have them loosing to lebanon in the group stage again. with manu back guess what? another semifinal in 2012,2014 and so on.
      spain-gold, argentina-silver, greece -bronze

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by perucho123 View Post
        why do people always underestimate argentina? there not going away so stop trying to force it. this started in 2006 when they won gold in athens.that they are getting old and what not. they are the no1 ranked team by fiba, semifinalist in the last 4 major tournaments. serbia is not going to take them out. serbia is too young. i think 2012 is their coming out party. it upsets me as a fiba fan that every year argentina is predicted by the fans to lose in the 1/4 and argentina makes semis and then everybody forgets and repeats it the next year and nobody calls them out. argentina will be in the final this year, 5 straight semis.i donno if they will win it but they will be there. they have been the most consistent team in the world this decade. 2012 will roll around and somebody will have them loosing to lebanon in the group stage again. with manu back guess what? another semifinal in 2012,2014 and so on.
        spain-gold, argentina-silver, greece -bronze
        most people on the other thread are predicting that Serbia will be a semifinalist. All I am saying is that they have a basically equal chance with Argentina to win their group - that is a far more conservative prediction than the one that claims they will reach the semifinal. So I think you should direct your comments to those on the other thread (guess the semifinalists).

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by perucho123 View Post
          why do people always underestimate argentina? there not going away so stop trying to force it. this started in 2006 when they won gold in athens.that they are getting old and what not. they are the no1 ranked team by fiba, semifinalist in the last 4 major tournaments. serbia is not going to take them out. serbia is too young. i think 2012 is their coming out party. it upsets me as a fiba fan that every year argentina is predicted by the fans to lose in the 1/4 and argentina makes semis and then everybody forgets and repeats it the next year and nobody calls them out. argentina will be in the final this year, 5 straight semis.i donno if they will win it but they will be there. they have been the most consistent team in the world this decade. 2012 will roll around and somebody will have them loosing to lebanon in the group stage again. with manu back guess what? another semifinal in 2012,2014 and so on.
          spain-gold, argentina-silver, greece -bronze
          I personally believe that Serbia is TODAY from what I've seen, the strongest team in tournament. Stronger than Spain, Greece, Argentina, or even US
          sigpic
          GERA ELLADARA MOU!!!!!

          Comment

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