[SemiFinals] Spain - Australia

[Levenspiel]

Friday the 13th, who wins?

[Cojayar]

Friday the 13th, who wins?

Spain. Why?

Friday 13th brings bad luck in Australia.
While in Spain it is Tuesday 13th what brings bad luck.

Sorry guys. The calendar decides.

EDIT: typo. 13th on both countries. Just Friday vs. Tuesday.

[Dtown]

Rematch of the 2016 Olympic Bronze medal. Hopefully we'll get a repeat of that game, minus the controversial ending.

[HeinrichMohr]

Spain. Why?

Friday 13th brings bad luck in Australia.
While in Spain it is Tuesday 23th what brings bad luck.

Sorry guys. The calendar decides.

Tuesday 13th in this case. The Aussies will be terribly tough and Spain will have chances to win just if they're accurate in the 3p line apart from having a good defense. If not, we'll see the Boomers in the final.

[Cojayar]

Tuesday 13th in this case. The Aussies will be terribly tough and Spain will have chances to win just if they're accurate in the 3p line apart from having a good defense. If not, we'll see the Boomers in the final.

Yes. typo. Sorry. Martes 13.

[Picek]

A game to watch and enjoy basketball and drink a beer or two.
Usually I would always cheer against Spain, but this time would really like for Rubio to succeed.
And this Spain is one Rudy away to be an almost likeable team.

At the same time you gotta love Aussies passion for the game.
They played hell of an olympics three years ago but were dismantled by Serbia and robbed against Spain.
Mills is like a duracell bunny with his running around, Baynes is an animal and Bogut of croatian roots.
Really a game to sit back and enjoy.
Play a bet or two on whoever will lose the first quarter, just to make it more interesting the rest of the game

[Modis]

Australia for the W . Will be to much intensity and roughness for Spain from the Aussies in this game

[Bruno Díaz es Batman]

Australia.

[Picek]

interesting that bookies are favouring Spain and since they are adjusting the line further in Spain favour don't think this will change before the game.
sure, Australia didn't beat Spain in the last 20 years or so but Australia has faced tougher opponents here and won them all.
don't really see Spain as a favourite here.
not a clear one anyway.

[Darrell Armstrong]

Australia can win, of course. Even if Spain comes out on top, it won't be easy. But I think we match up with them pretty well. We have good defenders to throw at Mills. Rubio can go hand to hand with Dellavedova. Our forwards can chase Ingles all game long. And Marc can bang with Baynes and Bogut.

One more factor going our way is rest: Spain didn't have the toughest game against Poland, and is enjoying an extra free day. Australian coach is riding his top players much harder, too: Mills and Ingles play over 32 minutes, and Dellavedova almost 29. All three played between 29 and 32 minutes against Czech Republic as well. Only Ricky Rubio was on the floor for that many minutes against Poland, and he averages 25 minutes per game for the tournament.

[soulis79]

Australia has never won a semifinal game, this burden could be very heavy for them. Spain knows how to do this. This core of the players is very experienced and mentally tough.

[Darrell Armstrong]

Australia has never won a semifinal game, this burden could be very heavy for them. Spain knows how to do this. This core of the players is very experienced and mentally tough.

Well, that's another factor: pressure. Spain won't feel a lot of pressure. Very few people considered us favourites before the tournament started. Some even said we were washed up, until the game vs. Serbia gave those people some food for thought. Our goal was to get the ticket to the Olympics and have fun. Olympics are secured now, so let's have fun. We were World Champions once and we have achieved more than in the past two World Cup editions, so we won't feel first-time jitters or the burden of defending a title.

On the other hand, Australia always comes back home empty-handed, and have been one of the top favourites even before beating Team USA in a friendly game. Now that the other top two teams have been eliminated, they have the easiest path for Gold ever. You can tell there will be more pressure on them, and that may not be a good thing.

[Buzissa]

Australia can win, of course. Even if Spain comes out on top, it won't be easy. But I think we match up with them pretty well. We have good defenders to throw at Mills. Rubio can go hand to hand with Dellavedova. Our forwards can chase Ingles all game long. And Marc can bang with Baynes and Bogut.

One more factor going our way is rest: Spain didn't have the toughest game against Poland, and is enjoying an extra free day. Australian coach is riding his top players much harder, too: Mills and Ingles play over 32 minutes, and Dellavedova almost 29. All three played between 29 and 32 minutes against Czech Republic as well. Only Ricky Rubio was on the floor for that many minutes against Poland, and he averages 25 minutes per game for the tournament.

This. Perfect analysis.

Australia plays beautiful offense, a lot of guys are involved, but Mills is the guy to stop. Spain has a number of defenders to throw at him and can match Australia's physicality inside.
I believe Spain keeps Australia under 80 points and wins this one.

[Picek]

Australia has never won a semifinal game, this burden could be very heavy for them.

that is true, but then again they have never won a quarterfinal WC game either.

[Darrell Armstrong]

This. Perfect analysis.

Australia plays beautiful offense, a lot of guys are involved, but Mills is the guy to stop. Spain has a number of defenders to throw at him and can match Australia's physicality inside.
I believe Spain keeps Australia under 80 points and wins this one.

Considering our progression in points allowed, I bet they crack 80 points in this one (62, 63, 65, 67, 69, 78). It's going to be hard because we average a tad under 81 points per game, too.