Future of Serbian NT

[Serbian_Layup]

If Avramovic keeps being this good, with Topic breaking out, our guard depth chart for the next at least two tournaments should be something like this:

PG: Micic, Avramovic, Topic, S. Jovic

SG: Bogdanovic, Gudurić, Marinkovic

Elite backcourt - playmaking, scoring, shooting, leadership, ISO prowess, defensive intensity. Basically, everything you wish to have in the backcourt.

Frontcourt is also loaded with talent as a mix of experienced and young players. Especially if Jokic shows up.

To sum up, great position to keep contending for medals un all upcoming tournaments.

[Straight forward]

If Avramovic keeps being this good, with Topic breaking out, our guard depth chart for the next at least two tournaments should be something like this:

PG: Micic, Avramovic, Topic, S. Jovic

SG: Bogdanovic, Gudurić, Marinkovic

Elite backcourt - playmaking, scoring, shooting, leadership, ISO prowess, defensive intensity. Basically, everything you wish to have in the backcourt.

Frontcourt is also loaded with talent as a mix of experienced and young players. Especially if Jokic shows up.

To sum up, great position to keep contending for medals un all upcoming tournaments.

For upcoming 2 tournaments Serbia seem to have everything they need to aim for nothing but the final no matter he tournament, specially if some Kalinic or any other defensive glue guy can make an impact and connect good guard section defense with more of interior defense (cause youngsters as Jovic, Poku, Vukcevic, Petrusev are not good defenders), as well Jokic is not a good defender (Milutinov is likely better than him defensively, but he is injury prone). That's the only little concern likely. I'm not sold on Avramovic as very serious piece. I think he exceeded a bit in WC in some games, but overall not an elite player. I think 2 upcoming tournaments for Serbia are safe in terms of talent, but Bogdanovic gonna be 32 and 33 in those tournaments and likely his last 2 big ones, the clock is ticking. His contribution slightly reduced compared to 2019 and there's a question whenever he'll be motivated to suit up after OG 2024, knowing his injury record too. Micic career in NT has been fragmental and generally disappointed (even though he may turned out to be great vet and his best performances potentially ahead, but I wouldn't bet on it, really). Serbia yet didn't introduce any of big guard youngster on the NT stage. Topic and Durisic are NBA prospects, theoretically perfectly filling 1 and 2 positions as a long term starters, but we should still see if they are truly braking out at highest level (at least EL). Without guards, even Poku, Jovic, Vukcevic presence at combo forward position may not be enough. NTs without dominant PGs or very versatile SGs/combos (as Bogdanovic/SGA) basically have zero chances to win medals these days.

[Serbian_Layup]

For upcoming 2 tournaments Serbia seem to have everything they need to aim for nothing but the final no matter he tournament, specially if some Kalinic or any other defensive glue guy can make an impact and connect good guard section defense with more of interior defense (cause youngsters as Jovic, Poku, Vukcevic, Petrusev are not good defenders), as well Jokic is not a good defender (Milutinov is likely better than him defensively, but he is injury prone). That's the only little concern likely. I'm not sold on Avramovic as very serious piece. I think he exceeded a bit in WC in some games, but overall not an elite player. I think 2 upcoming tournaments for Serbia are safe in terms of talent, but Bogdanovic gonna be 32 and 33 in those tournaments and likely his last 2 big ones, the clock is ticking. His contribution slightly reduced compared to 2019 and there's a question whenever he'll be motivated to suit up after OG 2024, knowing his injury record too. Micic career in NT has been fragmental and generally disappointed (even though he may turned out to be great vet and his best performances potentially ahead, but I wouldn't bet on it, really). Serbia yet didn't introduce any of big guard youngster on the NT stage. Topic and Durisic are NBA prospects, theoretically perfectly filling 1 and 2 positions as a long term starters, but we should still see if they are truly braking out at highest level (at least EL). Without guards, even Poku, Jovic, Vukcevic presence at combo forward position may not be enough. NTs without dominant PGs or very versatile SGs/combos (as Bogdanovic/SGA) basically have zero chances to win medals these days.

When talking about future, it's only reasonable to predict near future in terms of talent evaluation. In my opinion you could analyze max two next tournaments, everything beyond that is difficult to predict because situation changes really quick, like players coming out of nowhere and immediately making impact or some of them not living up to expectations. As for Serbia, picture for next two years is pretty clear. Topic, Djurisic, Poku, Jovic, Petrusev, Vukcevic are projected to make real impact starting from next Olympic cycle, remains to be seen to what extent. I'm not worried about guards. We always had them. We already have Topic as the next big guard (hopefully), with Micic being still in his prime and couple of excellent role players on PG. You can't ask for much better than that. Talents are there, in fact some big prospects on guard position are being mentioned very frequently, and that's also all you can ask for. Most of them won't live up to expectations but the key thing is to keep producing them because some of them will definitely pan out.

As for individuals in this current core of Serbian team. We don't need Avramovic to be elite player, we just need him to be elite role player as he has been ever since he arrived to Partizan. Obradovic changed his role and said to him something like 'if you want to play in NT, you are going to have to be a PG because there is a crowd at SG'. Before Partizan, Avramovic was a high volume SG, not particularly efficient. His transformation was a blessing for NT because we got guard with some elite skills like ball pressure, slashing, which we really needed in the backcourt. Not elite player, but quite possibly elite role player. If Topic lives up to expectations, Micic might not be very important anymore. However, he is still very valuable and in his prime, past results don't mean anything for upcoming tournaments.

Topic and Djurisic are most likely going to headline NT roster in upcoming windows. After Jovic and Petrusev, two more youngsters are going to be officially included in national team circle. If Topic continues to develop, it's going to be hard not to call him for Olympics. It's not a secret that Pesic is his big fan and already called him a serious candidate for Olympics. And there are Jovic, Petrusev, Poku, Smailagic. I don't think you will find that many young players ready to take a role in any other contender. Perspective right now and also in the future considering the talent in youth generations is very bright. Right now, the way I see it, Serbia has the best mix of experienced players in their prime and young talented players out of all contenders (outside of USA and Canada). This will enable them to make transition for the next Olympic cycle much less painful. Jokic, Bogdan, Micic, Milutinov, Kalinic, Dobric, Marinkovic, Guduric all in good prime years, and on the other side younger players like Topic, Djurisic, Jovic, Petrusev, Smailagic, Saranovic already realistically knocking on the door. Pretty good situation to make a smooth transition. Not to mention a bit younger but also big prospects like Markovic, Bosnjakovic, Radosic, Stankovic, Filip Jovic.

I've been watching basketball long enough and I don't think there was ever a time when Serbia didn't have an elite guard. And I don't think that will happen anytime soon for both historical reasons and talent pool.

[Straight forward]

If Topic continues to develop, it's going to be hard not to call him for Olympics. It's not a secret that Pesic is his big fan and already called him a serious candidate for Olympics.

That's what I'm highly missing from LTU coach or coaches. We are sleeping. Spain integrated Nunez, Serbia very close to integrate Topic while we are hesitant. That's the benefit of those coaches with big names. They are bold and can make some moves that takes guts, and it will surely help those teams going forward.

. Right now, the way I see it, Serbia has the best mix of experienced players in their prime and young talented players out of all contenders (outside of USA and Canada). .

I would say on the same page with France. Serbia has better experienced/peaking core with Jokic, Bogdanovic, Micic and others (in comparison with Fournier, Batum, Gobert and others), but France has even superior prospect power with Wemby, Caulibaly, Dieng, Risacher, K. Hayes, Alex Sarr, Cissoko, Maledon and others. So it's even.

[Serbian_Layup]

The problem for France is they are not doing anything with all those young prospects. They should have already started with promoting new young players but Collet is not trusting any of them as it seems. It's curious why at least one of Maledon or Hayes didn't get a better chance last few years. It could hurt them at Olympics big time. De Colo is already washed, Fournier is chucking a lot and there isn't any other reliable guard.

On the other side, it's not easy to bring young player and expect great things right away. It can be really counterproductive and it's understandable why coaches stick with maybe less talented but more experienced players who know their roles. It's hard for young player to keep the right mentality and help win right away. However, if you want to invest in your future, sometimes risks are necessary, especially in case of bad results or lack of talent.

[Straight forward]

The problem for France is they are not doing anything with all those young prospects. They should have already started with promoting new young players but Collet is not trusting any of them as it seems. It's curious why at least one of Maledon or Hayes didn't get a better chance last few years. It could hurt them at Olympics big time. De Colo is already washed, Fournier is chucking a lot and there isn't any other reliable guard.

On the other side, it's not easy to bring young player and expect great things right away. It can be really counterproductive and it's understandable why coaches stick with maybe less talented but more experienced players who know their roles. It's hard for young player to keep the right mentality and help win right away. However, if you want to invest in your future, sometimes risks are necessary, especially in case of bad results or lack of talent.

One Wemby can be a real pain and the ass and he will be if healthy. He will make instant impact 2024. They also need to push for Hayes, IMO. Obviously they need some fresh talent here and there. Seriously, teams will have to decide what to do with this. In few years there won't be much that you can do if he survives as an athlete:

https://twitter.com/BleacherReport/status/1713197577733091537

[Serbian_Layup]

https://twitter.com/tmetcalf11/status/1715358065975832788

The best and most detailed scouting of Topic's game I've come so far. The part about his understanding of angles when driving and finishing at the rim (I would also add his coordination and ability to use his body well when finishing at the rim) makes it clear why he has had so much success when attacking the rim. Defensive concerns are a bit overblown. 18 y.o. who is playing 35 minutes per game dominating every possession certainly can't look fresh and poised to play consistent defense. I don't care about defense right now at all. However, it's true that Topic is not showing any midrange game so far, probably because he is scoring at will of off his drives, but there will be time very soon when his outside shot will be challenged and he is going to have to work on it. When that happens (or if that happens), combined with his powerful driving and p&r mastery, he will be virtually unstoppable.

[Straight forward]

One thing seems to be pretty certain - next Serbia's generation won't be about defense But on the other end... there will be tons of offense, specially if Topic truly rounds into world class material (glimpses of Parker).

Topic, Djurisic, Poku, Jovic, Vukcevic, Petrusev are not good defenders generally. That may be a problem in contemporary basketball to certain extent. 2022 and 2023 tournaments have been won by defensively strong teams.

[Serbian_Layup]

One thing seems to be pretty certain - next Serbia's generation won't be about defense But on the other end... there will be tons of offense, specially if Topic truly rounds into world class material (glimpses of Parker).

Topic, Djurisic, Poku, Jovic, Vukcevic, Petrusev are not good defenders generally. That may be a problem in contemporary basketball to certain extent. 2022 and 2023 tournaments have been won by defensively strong teams.

Well, I don't know about that. They are not projected to be lockdown defenders, but it's way too early to make a definite statement about their defense. First thing they all have great positional size. Jovic for example is already a lot better defender than he was a year ago. He bulked up significantly and Serbia did't suffer at all defensively with him in the frontcourt. And that was just his first real experience at such level of basketball, which means he will imorove even more. Then, Poku is already very good helpside defender with great timing for blocking shots. He will be fine defensively. The only worry about him is his body and whether he will stay healthy. Topic has great positional size and is already flashing very good off ball defense. It would be a little bit too much for him to engage more on defense. He has plenty of time to work on that staff, especially when his body matures. Djusrisic also has great body, hard to imagine him being a bad defender. He should worry about his outside shot, not defense. Vukcevic here is the weakest link defensively and the only one of this bunch with bad defensive upside due to slow footwork on defense and generally lack of sense for positioning and strength. But if they all pan out offensively, no one is going to think about defense

[Serbian_Layup]

https://twitter.com/DraftExpress/status/1715453797294633329

He is definitely not 6'7 tall, but more like 6'6 with shoes. Already top 15 on some draft boards. It's going to be interesting to see how he fares against a good Euroleague team like Partizan in a few days.

[Straight forward]

Well, I don't know about that. They are not projected to be lockdown defenders, but it's way too early to make a definite statement about their defense. First thing they all have great positional size. Jovic for example is already a lot better defender than he was a year ago. He bulked up significantly and Serbia did't suffer at all defensively with him in the frontcourt. And that was just his first real experience at such level of basketball, which means he will imorove even more. Then, Poku is already very good helpside defender with great timing for blocking shots. He will be fine defensively. The only worry about him is his body and whether he will stay healthy. Topic has great positional size and is already flashing very good off ball defense. It would be a little bit too much for him to engage more on defense. He has plenty of time to work on that staff, especially when his body matures. Djusrisic also has great body, hard to imagine him being a bad defender. He should worry about his outside shot, not defense. Vukcevic here is the weakest link defensively and the only one of this bunch with bad defensive upside due to slow footwork on defense and generally lack of sense for positioning and strength. But if they all pan out offensively, no one is going to think about defense

Sure. I had that in mind. My point is I guess that Serbia doesn't really have prospects who's identity is primarily defensive. Like Spain's Garuba, like Wemby (who I think will have several +10 blocks games in his career), Bona (Turkey) or even such prospects like Kalinic, Lucic (even though these EL quality player may very well emerge later). Even LTU which is primarily offensive team historically has prospects as Marciulionis, Giedraitis, Buzelis (Sedekerskis is not a prospect anymore, but emerging piece). This may or not be a problem. I think Serbia has a chance to have super good offense to get away with it, but it's not a fact. BTW, I think people underrate how important is to have defensive center in this era, and teams who won't have it will suffer more or less, IMO. I miss that piece long term in LTU field and I think Serbia doesn't have one too.

[Serbian_Layup]

Sure. I had that in mind. My point is I guess that Serbia doesn't really have prospects who's identity is primarily defensive. Like Spain's Garuba, like Wemby (who I think will have several +10 blocks games in his career), Bona (Turkey) or even such prospects like Kalinic, Lucic (even though these EL quality player may very well emerge later). Even LTU which is primarily offensive team historically has prospects as Marciulionis, Giedraitis, Buzelis (Sedekerskis is not a prospect anymore, but emerging piece). This may or not be a problem. I think Serbia has a chance to have super good offense to get away with it, but it's not a fact. BTW, I think people underrate how important is to have defensive center in this era, and teams who won't have it will suffer more or less, IMO. I miss that piece long term in LTU field and I think Serbia doesn't have one too.

I think defense always starts with perimeter. If you have good on ball pressure and switchable players on the perimeter, it's a lot easier to defend the paint. Having a good defensive center is great, but having good perimeter defenders is even more important. Nuggets won NBA title with Jokic. And Jokic is not rim protector, lacks lateral quickness, but they still blew everyone away. However, Jokic has different skills on defense which turned out to be very valuable and Nuggets didn't suffer one bit defensively with Jokic as their anchor. But they also had very good perimeter defense which helped Jokic and made things easier for him. If perimeter defense is good, you can get away with bad defenders in the frontcourt. However, if your perimeter defense sucks, nothing can help you.

As for defensive prospects, Serbia has Bosnjakovic SG/SF with elite defensive upside. Then, there is this kid Musicki whose defense alone could make him a solid role player. Serbia, historically, at least for the last 30 years, aside from Rebraca and Savic, hasn't had a lot of rim protectors or very mobile centers, but had excellent rebounders, and always had defensive specialists on the perimeter, which proved to be more than enough to win medals. I would love to continue with that trend of having good perimeter defenders and good rebounders in the frontcourt, even if they are not great rim protectors. Combined with great offensive talent, then the math is pretty much clear.

[Serbian_Layup]

https://twitter.com/Scoutspects/status/1716800895554306543

This is interesting. Andjusic refused to switch with Smailagic against Topic thinking he will do a better job and stay in front of Topic. Next thing you know, Andjusic gets blown away in blink of an eye. I think Obradovic benched Andjusic for rest of the game after this play. That's how much unfavorable matchup Topic is even against Euroleague guards already. The way to defend Topic is to stick with him bone to bone, he is just too good and so quick to punish whatever mistake is made by defense. He can not be allowed any space because he is immediately driving and making a play.

[Serbian_Layup]

https://twitter.com/tmetcalf11/status/1716934558573084993

Getting that shot to fall and improve mechanics was priority number 1 for Djurisic in the off season, and it seems he is on the way to become a consistent shooter. This part of the game is a must for a shooting guard like him. Without outside shot he can't survive on bigger stage, so this is very encouraging. He really has a great shooting versatility, off the dribble, spot up, pull up, catch and shoot...combined with great passing and ball handling, he can be a complete package on offense and definitely NBA caliber. Having Topic as a teammate helps Djurisic because he has to act like a real SG with scoring instincts. He was more like a point guard last season but it's clear that role is not suitable for him. He is a really good passer and can act as a secondary playmaker, but he should focus on his primary instincts of a shooting guard which he is, everything else is just a bonus to his game. This role behind Topic as primary ball handler allows him to be more himself.

It seems Topic, Jovic and Djurisic look like the next big three of Serbian NT. Still too early for conclusions but right now they seem to be pillars of new generation that will soon take over in NT.

[Serbian_Layup]

https://twitter.com/Raptors/status/1717383605347873077

At some point in the future, we are looking at the coach of Serbian NT. Interesting to see how he does in NBA. Suns were impatient with Kokoskov, it seems Raptors organization and fan base are on the same page with Darko. He is in good situation because Raptors are in rebuild and trying to create new identity. I also think at some point, Kokoskov could be back at the helm of NT. Feels like bad circumstances around NT at OQT in Belgrade really limited him to show what he can do.

So far, two Euro coaches in NBA history, both from Serbia. Not too shabby.