Lithuanian Shooting Guards

[Straight forward]

As expected, latest great Rubstavicius stint made a lot of fuzz around him. People already discussing whenever he's a first rounder. Some see him there like this guy - https://twitter.com/fra_sempru/statu...93425674264595 and some sees him more of a second rounder after lengthy analysis, really nice job, it takes a bit to read everything, but really worth it. With most I agree, but I don't want to see him play 4 ever, not even for shortest stretch God help another NBA club would try to do what did with Kulboka. Off course, Kulboka's profile was a bit different, but still, no bulk Rubsta, stay lean and play the 2. Forcing Rubstavicius to bulk his upper body and to lose guard skill, would be the biggest slap to LTU BB face. I want him to stay lean, he has very interesting combination of length and mobility/skill. Also a slight rawness at this age was named as something what could lower his draft stock, but I disagree - he's a latebloomer and actually has a nice upside and the upside rises your draft pick. Here's the scouting report: https://edemirnba.substack.com/p/man...couting-report

Bleacherreport puts at 38#. I feel like his current (and likely overall) range is 26-40 picks. Hope he can bully his way to the first round and get real contract instantly.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10103263-2024-nba-mock-draft-full-2-round-predictions-major-competition-for-no-1-pick

[Toruko]

We'll see how things will develop. F.e. Jokubaitis is a bigger prospect than Micic was (higher drafted, Rising EL star for several years and so on), just that Micic made a huge leap coming to his prime and it turned out that he has high ceiling for European basketball.

Initially Micic was a superb prospect but he suffered two injuries and couldnt get along well with the coach in Munich who is the Serbian NT coach rn.
Then he went to Tofas to Turkey and made his leap to LTU. What I am trying to tell is Micic was a great prospect but couldnt develop in younger ages because of injuries.

I am not that optimistic about Jokubaitis. I dont think that hell ever reach a level of being EL MVP.

Besides, I kinda feel that Rubstavicius is underrated.

Rubstavicius is indeed very interesting. I havent watched him that often tbh but his U20 tournament was impressive. He even showed a certain level of self creation but I dont think that hell turn out to be an iso guy but you never know.

Yeah, good prospects, the same Nunez can be added and couple of more guys, but I don't see next Doncic, Giannis, Jokic (highest tier) or even F. Wagner, Buzelis tier particularly. So we'll see.

Big believer in Baba Miller

[Straight forward]

Why thats one of the reasons why Serbia couldnt win the important games but Jokic is a force by himself even if you cant use his versatility. I think Serbia had never the chance to use Jokic with Bodgdanovic after Jokic became a true star. We have to discriminate the cases NBA star and European star.

Yes, Jokic is the best basketball player in the world ATM and it's not a debate. Potentially Jokic and Bogi + A roster of Serbia could challenge even A USA roster, just as Spain did in 2008, 2012. But also Jokic turns 29 this summer and his availability wasn't particularly perfect. So for now they have it, but Jokic is not exactly long term piece anymore either. After Bogi and Jokic will step down, there's a question if Serbia can sustain the same level. In the cause of LTU, Sabonis is a bit younger, and more available than Jokic, so Sabonis and Buzelis can collect 2-4 tournaments together I believe, having a good supporting pieces next to them.

Its the same case with Schroder and Wagner. Schroder and Bodganovic might not be stars in the NBA but they are stars in Europe.

OK, maybe I was not discriminating enough. You need a difference making backcourt player. A Micic, Bogdanovic, Schroder level guy. Thats for sure

I agree, but that's not 2 NBA star level players as you wrote initially.

We'll see how things will develop. F.e. Jokubaitis is a bigger prospect than Micic was (higher drafted, Rising EL star for several years and so on), just that Micic made a huge leap coming to his prime and it turned out that he has high ceiling for European basketball. Besides, I kinda feel that Rubstavicius is underrated. He can be a FIBA star if you ask me. Maybe not on Bogi, Schroder, Mills level, but might end up close. I can see him going for efficient 18-20ppg in FIBA when he will be finished product. IDK how things will turn out, but I hope that Sabonis + Buzelis and elite EL level players as Jokubaitis, Rubstavicius (+ quality EL level bench) will be enough to contend. Such small country as Lithuania simply can't expect anything more than that. Actually I believe that if most upcoming talent (1998-2007) will pan out, it will be a little miracle for our country, cause it, IMO, will exceed the talent of 90s, 10's as a total. It won't exceed individual talent of A. Sabonis, S. Marciulionis, Karnisovas, Kurtinaitis, I think this 4 stars punch will remain the best ever, but as very quality and deep 12 pieces, LTU might have he best talent pool in 2027-2035 or so. This stretch is special and when you compare to the previous one, the poor one, it looks like amazing contrast. So far no-one truly busted. The biggest disappointment is probably Kulboka, but even he didn't yet reached his prime and was 15ppg kinda player in Eurocup. And I expected more from Velicka at some point, nevertheless he will be intriguing borderliner in his prime, good piece for depth when there will be many absences and injuries.

Not just if I ask you... its a fact right now but Spain has enough potentials. They have enough difference making potentials in Europe. from Almansa to Baba Miller, Aday Mara to Gonzales to Saint Supery. Especially the bigs are special.

Yeah, good prospects, the same Nunez can be added and couple of more guys, but I don't see next Doncic, Giannis, Jokic (highest tier) or even F. Wagner, Buzelis tier particularly. So we'll see.

The only question about Wembanyama will be "can he stay healthy. If yes he will be the most dominant defender in the history of basketball. Amazing defensive upside.

I agree. He will be the best defensive player in the world. But I'm not sure he will be particularly stunning in ISO situations offensively. I need more expressed ball handler for such job.

[Toruko]

Germany won it all with one fringe NBA star Wagner in WC. Schroder is not an NBA star, never was.

He is probably the best slasher in the entire NBA. Thats enough.

Is Lorenzo Brown particularly a world class clutch player? God, no I mean he's simply elite EL guard, but nothing more, and his greatness came from manipulating with pick and roll action in the first place.

I wouldnt count Eurobasket as an example. Spain is no 1 in the rankings and had an easy path. It wont happen again.

So I wouldn't say it's so badly impossible to win without world class ISO freaks as KD, Lebron, Doncic and so on. Look at Serbia, they reached the final with best player Bogi, who is a role player in the NBA...The second best player was freakin' Milutinov with all due respect.

My arguments are based on the best possible teams.

But let's look at Serbia. Who is sure fire NBA star after Jokic? Probably their best chance is Topic, Jovic is pretty nice, but there's no sure fire star or superstar potential.

Why thats one of the reasons why Serbia couldnt win the important games but Jokic is a force by himself even if you cant use his versatility. I think Serbia had never the chance to use Jokic with Bodgdanovic after Jokic became a true star. We have to discriminate the cases NBA star and European star.

Its the same case with Schroder and Wagner. Schroder and Bodganovic might not be stars in the NBA but they are stars in Europe.

Spain? No such player. Gonzalec, Nunez, Almanza and such are nice, but no NBA stars if you ask me.

Not just if I ask you... its a fact right now but Spain has enough potentials. They have enough difference making potentials in Europe. from Almansa to Baba Miller, Aday Mara to Gonzales to Saint Supery. Especially the bigs are special.

France has Wemby, OK he can be special. Will he be exactly perfect option to close the games? I'm not entirely sure.

The only question about Wembanyama will be "can he stay healthy. If yes he will be the most dominant defender in the history of basketball. Amazing defensive upside.

I think you overephasize that star power necessity. It's not like since now every team will have a tall guard of Lerbron and Doncic (Slovenia is too thin to win) level.

OK, maybe I was not discriminating enough. You need a difference making backcourt player. A Micic, Bogdanovic, Schroder level guy. Thats for sure.

[Straight forward]

You need at least two NBA star level player if you want to win a medal and good Euro guys who can fill some gaps. You cant rely on Murauskas or Rubstavicius if you play against SGA etc. We are talking about being a true contender not about the chance to win something. You need someone who can finish in the last 10 seconds. Its that simple.

Another thing is the lack of glue guys. You might have better perimeter defenders but putting either defender or offensive players you wont win anything. You need a guy (at least) who can do both on the court on a very high level.

I acknowledge the development of Sedekerskis. I do believe that a Jokubaitis will be better in time but atm I dont see a contending team. Not with this Serbia, France, Spain etc.

Paolo Banchero is for instance a top 10 NBA player. If Italy had got him, it would have increased their potential exponentially. You need true game changer, its that simple. We can count Sabonis as one but he has too many liabilities defensively.

I don't particularly think you need 2 NBA star level players. Germany won it all with one fringe NBA star Wagner in WC. Schroder is not an NBA star, never was. Is Lorenzo Brown particularly a world class clutch player? God, no I mean he's simply elite EL guard, but nothing more, and his greatness came from manipulating with pick and roll action in the first place. So I wouldn't say it's so badly impossible to win without world class ISO freaks as KD, Lebron, Doncic and so on. Look at Serbia, they reached the final with best player Bogi, who is a role player in the NBA...The second best player was freakin' Milutinov with all due respect.

OK, if we speak about being absolutely consistent and deadly contender, like now USA and Canada with their A rosters can be anytime (and maybe France will reach that level in the future), then YES. If your goal is to equally compete with A rosters of USA and Canada, you need 2 NBA stars and something like that.

But let's look at Serbia. Who is sure fire NBA star after Jokic? Probably their best chance is Topic, Jovic is pretty nice, but there's no sure fire star or superstar potential.

Spain? No such player. Gonzalec, Nunez, Almanza and such are nice, but no NBA stars if you ask me.

France has Wemby, OK he can be special. Will he be exactly perfect option to close the games? I'm not entirely sure.

Australia has ISO freak star? I don't know them yet.

Germany has Wagner, but I'm not sure they can sustain current talent pool for long stretch.

So basically aside USA and Canada, I don't see any teams who can field 2 NBA stars. Maybe France, but we'll see.

I think you overephasize that star power necessity. It's not like since now every team will have a tall guard of Lerbron and Doncic (Slovenia is too thin to win) level.

[Toruko]

You need at least two NBA star level player if you want to win a medal and good Euro guys who can fill some gaps. You cant rely on Murauskas or Rubstavicius if you play against SGA etc. We are talking about being a true contender not about the chance to win something. You need someone who can finish in the last 10 seconds. Its that simple.

Another thing is the lack of glue guys. You might have better perimeter defenders but putting either defender or offensive players you wont win anything. You need a guy (at least) who can do both on the court on a very high level.

I acknowledge the development of Sedekerskis. I do believe that a Jokubaitis will be better in time but atm I dont see a contending team. Not with this Serbia, France, Spain etc.

Paolo Banchero is for instance a top 10 NBA player. If Italy had got him, it would have increased their potential exponentially. You need true game changer, its that simple. We can count Sabonis as one but he has too many liabilities defensively.

[Straight forward]

Only if Buzelis becomes the first or second scoring option of an NBA team. Your starting five has nobody who could create for himself. Shooting is still a big problem but your talent level increased without a doubt. Another point is Sabonis who has not delivered anything yet.

Generally I agree with you. But that's if you ask truly perfect team. We do know what kind of team won 2022 Eurobasket I drew much more talented and deeper team.

But also I disagree with you a little bit because of 2 things. I think Rubstavicius can bring certain amount of ISO creation with his shake and bake moves and explosive first step and he's really comfortable absorbing the contact. I do believe that Murauskas has a chance to become one of the most dangerous Euro forwards in ISO situations and there's still Brazdeikis who will be pretty nice coming from the bench in his prime. So while there's only Buzelis as true world class ISO presence potential, there's still secondary ISO presence bunch available in this roster.

Second, there's many intagibles on this roster as superior creation for others (Jokubaitis, Sabonis, Buzelis), nice defensive upside (except 5 position), Lithuanian fundamentals (super unselfish ball movement, balanced in and out game, pick and role). In other words, I still believe that we have a slight edge in terms of team culture compared to most other NTs. Previously it has been bigger factor than it is now with increased ISO talent in FIBA and increasing intensity, but with growing talent this factor still can be very impactful.

Shooting wise, we might want to have even better team, but mind that Lithuania shot the ball 40% in WC 2023, No.1 in the tournament. Rubstavicius thus far is 50% shooter in Australia, Sirvydis 42.6% in Eurocup, Jokubaitis is 43.3% EL career shooter. Maybe we won't be a great shooting team, but I disagree that shooting is a big problem on this roster. Don't see it. Specially if Buzelis turns out to be on the better side of it (he has been projected as capable shooter for his size last season, but so far in G League the trigger is off, so we'll see). Besides, I think heading forward (2028 and further) the important guard will be Jakucionis. Terrific shoot first PG which will only improve our shooting profile.

I mean, Lithuania won't fill the perfect team, not ever. We never did it. 90s team had short bench. 00s team was filled with elite EL quality and pretty deep, but lacked world class players. 20s team won't be perfect, like USA sometimes can collect, but it has a chance to be the best ever, IMO, if Buzelis turns out to be versatile NBA starter.

[Toruko]

Only if Buzelis becomes the first or second scoring option of an NBA team. Your starting five has nobody who could create for himself. Shooting is still a big problem but your talent level increased without a doubt. Another point is Sabonis who has not delivered anything yet.

[Straight forward]

Here's Rubstavicius' recent game highlights. Notice how active he is defensively, becoming really sticky defender with his size. 2002 guard studs Marciulionis and Rubstavicius can make the same impact defensively as they did in U20 EC changing the game with their defensive effort and coherence.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WoWz0teiYSw&ab_channel=NBLNextStars

Rubstavicius is a hands down next true starter for the NT. For my standards, the last true staring level SG was Siskauskas (after him there was only quality role players as Pocius, Seibutis, Grigonis, Brazdeikis). Performance wise, Grigonis was at the starters level in 2022 EB, with 14,5ppg and solid FG51 %.

The way I understand the talent, ATM we have true starters at 1 Jokubaitis, 4 Sedekerskis, 5 Sabonis. We have to fill the remaining spots. I see Rubstavicius soon getting there at 2. And Buzelis at 3 till 2027.

It would be really nice if Rubstavicius gets his feet vet with small role in 2024 and in 2025 he would have a chance the best SG already, IMO. My projection is that in 2027 we already will have legitimate true starting level unit and the very quality and deep bench:

Jokubaitis, Marciulionis
Rubstavicius, Lelevicius, Brazdeikis
Buzelis, Sirvydis
Sedekerskis, Murauskas
Sabonis, Tubelis, Krivas

From that kind of team I will ask legitimate and objective contending for medals.

[Straight forward]

Rubstavicius with impressive consistency as 21yo. Again, he utilized his staring minutes perfectly. 16pts with good FG %. Made some key bucket in the 4th quarter. That highlight shows why he will be so valuable. He's not just a talented scorer, complete SG, but he also has something extra that you can't teach - he hustles. He has great motor. This combination gonna be so precious. That's where Lithuania can outdo the opponents. If our key players as Rubstavicius, Buzelis, Sabonis (Sedekerskis and so on) will give that extra effort, will do the dirty job and will play extremely unselfish, we gonna be better than majority of teams that don't have that. In 20s we have a chance to unite 00s qualities (talent, skill, shooting) with 10s qualities (extreme hustle and heart) into one NT.

https://twitter.com/OlgsNotebook/status/1741732760535130588

[Straight forward]

Because of the level he plays. You should put him to the team and he also can take several minutes but he is not ready for the starting five or a serious bench role. Maybe next year or 2025 but not 2024.

Yeah, generally I agree. It's more like a discussion now whenever he can make NT already or not, not really a candidate for serious role. But with his development, I wouldn't be surprised he's worthy to make a team already. Australian League is ranked higher than LKL and it seems that he is ready to put up 14-18ppg in 26mpg with terrific efficiency. That's extremely encouraging.

[Toruko]

Why do you think so?

Because of the level he plays. You should put him to the team and he also can take several minutes but he is not ready for the starting five or a serious bench role. Maybe next year or 2025 but not 2024.

[Straight forward]

He doesnt look ready.

Why do you think so?

[Toruko]

He doesnt look ready.

[Straight forward]

I think Rubstavicius more or less is where Siskauskas was at that time. In summer he will be 22yo. At that time Siska made 2000 OG NT. Rubstavicius has a chance to do the same. If he will continue to play the same in upcoming few games, Maksvytis just won't have any other way than to take the stud. Simply he's playing too well to ignore this talent. His numbers are not just good, they are ridiculous in last 5 games. Shooting % are surreal. He has been really stable, basically utilizing all his chances to the maximum. https://twitter.com/Fergaburger1/sta...45814071693650

And here's some highlights from his last 5 games:

https://twitter.com/NBLNextStars/status/1740173772039377151