2024 Lithuanian NT

[Straight forward]

Why do you keep repeating these trivialities? We get, ok? We need a perimeter star. No-one opposing you on this one if you didn't figure this out somehow.

I wasn't taking about that. I said that potentially NT without JV > NT with JV. I never said that with or without him NT is compatible to be legitimate medal contender.

[Hepcat]

Was yesterday's game against Lebanon played behind closed doors? There's absolutely nothing about the game on either Basketnews.com or Krepsinis.net.

[Hepcat]

Holly shit! Grab your seats folks. "We were more looking to replace the same position player. We planned Augustas, who is PG, so we were looking for PG".

Oh my fucking god...He's going to invite Kariniauskas! He just had to.

Well any arm's length observer would agree that Vaidas Kariniauskas did all that was expected and more as the backup PG last summer. That being said he wasn't very good for Wolves this past season.

So then let's look at possible backup PG candidates for Team Lietuva and their 2023-24 LKL production stats:

PLAYER	GAMES	MPG	PT	AS	ST	T/O	EFF
Ignas Sargiūnas	29	25:18	12.9	2.3	1.0	1.6	11.2
Kristupas Žemaitis	43	23:44	7.2	3.9	0.7	1.0	10.8
Žygimantas Janavičius	34	24:10	8.0	6.3	1.2	2.4	10.7
Arnas Velička	41	19:39	8.0	4.4	1.1	2.2	10.7
Dovis Bičkauskis	21	20:43	8.1	3.0	1.3	1.7	9.7
Vaidas Kariniauskas	40	17:40	6.7	3.6	0.5	1.9	6.9

Kristupas Žemaitis was mediocre at best in the two FIBA qualifiers against Poland and Estonia in February with an Efficiency of only 5.0 in 18:12 minutes of playing time per game and therefore I'd really not want him anywhere near Team Lietuva. But then again he was better than Lukas Lekavičius who had an Efficiency of 2.0 in 22:30 of playing time. And Lekavičius was so bad in that brutal game against Estonia that I couldn't even talk about it at the time.

Arnas Velička didn't get much playing time in the LKL Final because Rytas' American guards were playing so well but he did little with the playing time he actually got.

I actually lean to Žygimantas Janavičius over Ignas Sargiūnas or Dovis Bičkauskis. Quite simply Janavičius has been among the perennial assist leaders in the LKL and playmaking is what every coach likes to see in a PG. Yeah, yeah, he's 35 years old but that's 35 and not 65. And all we're asking is for him to run around a basketball court for 10-15 minutes every second day. We're not asking him to put in twelve hour shifts splitting rocks six days a week.

I'd actually be comfortable with any of Sargiūnas, Velička or Janavičius being invited to the Team Lietuva camp. Somebody needs to press Lekavičius for that backup position since Lekavičius hasn't exactly starred for Team Lietuva in recent years.

[Hepcat]

I'm actually happy to see 19 year old Motiejus Krivas get the call to replace Laurynas Birutis. At 218 cm. Krivas has the height I like to see in a center and he put up very decent numbers in the limited playing time he got in the LKL in 2022-23. Plus he's been a very good performer for Lithuania in international Under tournaments.

[zalias]

the schedule is brutal for some of these guys. zalgiris/rytas players finished the season not even a week ago and now they are back training for the olympic qualifiers

[Straight forward]

Watching Domas in press comf I begrudgingly imagine Matas Buzelis being as much uncomfortable talking Lithuanian. But he probably will pull it off Brazdeikis and will talk English instead. Respect to Domas nevertheless going through this. That's not easy to do. And it's interesting how millions and NBA star status doesn't change your natural character. He is not build for press comfs, he's build for the game.

Finally we'll get to see Domas going full time at 5. But I'm not overly excited. Domas is a system player and he needs time to mesh with other players to bring his best. I hope maybe this time it will be easier cause he played with most guys in 2022, except Ulanovas, Sedekerskis, D-Mo, Sirvydis and maybe Tubelis. He already played with Jokubaitis, Lukas, Grigonis, Giedraitis. The best chemistry there been with Jokubaitis. It was most evident. I believe that Sirvydis is build to play with Sabonis. Terrific player to shoot off his great hand offs, elite cutter and he can still initiate p'n'r himself.

Now that we lost our best perimeter defenders (I don't buy this "Giedraitis injured" stuff since he was playing tons in LKL finals, but whatever, we'll never know true situation anyway) I think now we just have to outscore opponents in qualification. So I would start with such players who are I think the absolutely best fit to be around Sabonis.

Jokubaitis, Grigonis, Sirvydis, Sedekerskis, Sabonis

I don't think Butkevicius is in position now to make huge defensive difference, not against super small and agile guards surely, and he's a bad fit to Sabonis. Also I hope Maksvytis won't prioritize R. Giedraitis instead of Sirvydis. Any-one who has any sensibility understands that Sirvydis is a better player already and Giedraitis has been ultimate trash in NT. I do think he's in the NT without a reason. I mean he didn't deserve this invitation. He had to give at least something in 3 tournaments being in his prime.

Off course, Sirvydis could be thrown as a back up for Grigonis as well. But in that case I would start Kuzminskas. We need to have reliable shooters around Sabonis. R. Giedraitis if we will combine both 2019 and 2022, averaging 8,3% from three. Freakin' Krivas would shoot threes better taken in his position. It's madness.

If Sirvydis going off the bench to back up Grigonis, I would give him the ball quite a bit to create, not only to go off the staggers. So that's interesting option. Lukas will bring some aggression off the bench and next him standing Sirvydis could be pretty nice for second unit and we would sustain rather intense aggression level from perimeter all game long. Ulanovas should also be a back up 4, who would create a bit off the high post and so in.

In my opinion with Jokubaitis, Grigonis, Sirvydis, Ulanovas, Sabonis we will have quite nice ball movement and offensive intensity. Lukas and Sedekerskis will add a little bit as well.

Offense I think will be very good, specially if the ball will be falling like it did in 2023 when we became best shooting team of WC 2023 with 42.2%.

Defense will suck, but we have to win qualification with superior offense.

[Hepcat]

the schedule is brutal for some of these guys. zalgiris/rytas players finished the season not even a week ago and now they are back training for the olympic qualifiers

That's almost certainly why Laurynas Birutis and Margiris Normantas begged off from coming to camp. They're emotionally exhausted after having given their all in an effort to beat their hated rivals.

[Straight forward]

This scouting video on Sirvydis sums it up everything nicely. No word on D, we know he sucks, but this NT is about offense obviously and at that end Sirvuha has really high ceiling. To me Sirvydis is the biggest X factor and the biggest question of this NT. Second biggest questions are - how much Jokubaitis can add to his performance level of WC and how much better Sabonis finally can be? But we know that both Sabonis and Jokubaitis at the very least will be solid, as well as Grigonis, Ulanovas, Sedekerskis, Kuzminskas (and even Lukas and Butkevicius). But we don't know how good will be Sirvydis. He can go from being pretty meh (like in WC) to becoming one of the keys. I believe that he can potentially be better version of Brazdeikis offensively. Iggy has more physical slashing game and more mid range game and is more expressed ISO player when he's on his best, but that doesn't come super consistently and he still is not exactly and answer to close big games. The problem with Iggy that he will never be great system player, even though he played pretty selflessly and efficiently in WC. Iggy's loos is legitimate, but Sirvydis moves the ball and spots other teammates at different level. He's is perfect on and off the ball player. Brazdeikis mainly is on ball player. Like in that game against Poland, Sirvydis can attract a lot of defense in perimeter and make a correct bullet pass making a right decision. As well as he has really passing touch in various situations. His team ball and system IQ is much higher than Iggy's. Now that he added much more slashing and sill is super dangerous with this quick trigger from three, I think he's not less dangerous in ISO situations than Iggy. And we have to go with him quite a bit.

I like the idea to have Jokubaitis at Sabonis in the middle and Grigonis + Sirvydis at the wing. Both going off the staggers aggressively and either taking open/semi open shots or punishing late close outs and getting inside. At times both can initiate p'n'r themselves or even go ISO a bit. At the same time cutting opportunities should also be very open, when the defense will be dealing with Jokubaitis and Sabonis pick and roll pressure. I believe that with these 4 players on the court we might combine the most versatile and most talented offensive flow at least since 2012. And at 4 there's still terrific system 4s as Sedekerskis and Ulanovas who are being able to knock down open three and clean the garbage.

Offensively I'm very optimistic, but Maksvytis shouldn't screw Sirvydis. In windows he was still hesitant to use him properly and that's where he's a dummy that can't be trusted. Any smart coach would be super excited to have Sirvydis now, IMO.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fVmfQFFhpYA&list=UULFkhBQTfbCAUdbMeiXRxNVc g&ab_channel=BallD%C5%BEiunkis

[Straight forward]

Continuing the ideas on how LTU sets will look, I think Jokubaitis pick and roll initiation and aggressive decision making will No.1 key of this NT and N.2 will be Sabonis short roles decisions. We should see plenty of short role with such terrific big as Sabonis. In NBA he's deadly with it and unstoppable. He can dish the other or can get himself while being more mobile and stronger than 70% of NBA centers. In Europe there's less space so he's a bit turnover prone in such situations and a lot will depend how quickly he can adjust to tighter FIBA court. I actually beliieve that for Sabonis FIBA qualification might be very beneficial. In EB 2022 he needed time to get into the rhythm. We lacked strong opponents in preparation. Now going against Slovenia, PR and Italy would be great practice before Olympics and he would be much more ready for FIBA court in Olympics itself. But as qualification goes, he might still look a bit uncomfortable at first. Likely few first games will be meh and we will sweep the opponents. I also want to see Sabonis high in the middle providing hand offs or spotting cutters which he can do perfectly, but mainly I can see him going with short and eep pick and roles from which can can several options. Sometimes he will operate from high post and LTU will play a lot of give and go BB too. Sabonis was constantly asking players to cut, even guards, after the passes. European guards not always used to do that. Playing with Sabonis, you have to be ready to operate as a cutter in all situations and that open up a lot. Eventually Jokubaitis got this idea the best. I want to see Grigonis cutting more. He tends to look for his outside opportunities too much a bit, and he had to be more willing cutter in EB as well. Now I hope he will move more willingly without the ball inside as well. Playing in PAO as off ball piece will be beneficial here. Main decision makers should be Jokubaitis and Sabonis in this team. While Grigonis, Sirvydis, Kuzminskas should be looking for open threes, cuts and punishing close outs from time to time off the dribble. A lot will depend how Domas will cope with FIBA space. Now he will have minutes and freedome AT THE RIGHT POSITION. It's all on him adjusting and now and utilizing the opportunity. He has to be precise with his decision. If he will give 15ppg and 8-10as, it will surely be better than just 20 or 22ppg. It will mean that Sabonis elevated NT to completely different level than JV ever could with his 16ppg, but almost zero involvement of others. That's where Sabonis offensive upside is super high and that's how he became all NBA piece and MVP candidate.

Second, this team is finally poised to play fast. Sabonis still in his prime physically. He can run and loves it. Sedekerskis loves it and he's 100% efficient in open court. Sirvydis, Giedraitis, Jokubaitis all love to run as well. I hope Grigonis can still run too. Not even talking about Tubelis. Offensively he would be great fit, I'm just not sure if he can handle things defensively at 5. So this team has to run and we should get some easy points, and even a lot.

We should be looking for a lot of action like this:

https://x.com/NBA_NewYork/status/1559940972938772483

https://x.com/NYKnicksLATAM/status/1560677453802004481

[Shawshank]

Jokubaitis,Lekavicius
Grigonis,Sirvydis,Giedraitis
Butkevicius,Kuzminskas
Sedekerskis,Ulanovas
Sabonis,Dmo


last place between Tubelis and Bendzius

dangau sportas experts saying Bendzius is needed for shooting from big position and that coach should take both of them

and ale cut Butkevicius or Giedraitis (and leave team with 4 guards?) or cut best team defender? . I dont see it


For me coach need to choose between Tubelis or Bendzius other 11 place more less locks.

[Straight forward]

Summing up this Lithuanian club season I have these:

Biggest risers:

1. Jakucionis
2. Krivas
3. Sedekerskis.
4. Sirvydis.
5. Marciulionis
6. Rubstavicius.
7. Tubelis.
8. D.Giedraitis
9. Juzenas.
10. Rapelis/Butajevas


Remained at the same level or projection: Sabonis, D-Mo, Buzelis, Kuzminskas, Ulanovas, R. Giedraitis, Grigonis, Normantas, Indrusaitis, Buika, Birutis

Disappointing seasons (in some cases because of playing time): Murauskas, Brazdeikis, Lekavicius (EL), Butkevicius, Valanciunas, R. Giedraitis, Kulboka (injured), Bendzius, Lelevicius, Blazevic.

Lithuania is on extreme rise ATM. We barely face any truly meaningful set backs (slow decline of JV, Butkevicius, Lekavicius will be felt some, but not so much so far and it may not be that important in certain cases), except Brazdeikis, but there's tons and tons of players who are on the rise. Some important players who struggled or didn't get enough of chance like Murauskas and Lelevicius will surely bounce back. They have it. Next 2 Olympic cycles will be fun.

Now the key is to witness which players can prevail as a true FIBA stars. I would rank the star power potential like this:

1. Buzelis.
2. Jakucionis.
3. Indrusaitis.
4. Murauskas.
5. Rubstavicius/Sirvydis/Jokubaitis

[Shawshank]

NT for 2025-2028 more less is loosing these players Kuzminskas (34),Dmo(34),Valanciunas(32),Butkevicius(32),Ulanovas(32),R.Giedraitis(32)Gri gonis (30),Lekavicius (30)

Half of them will retire from NT after olympics.Other half even if they play in 2025-2028 wont be same players anymore athletically.


From those 8 euroleague players in their 30s i predict 2-3 players only will play in 2025

.
Generation is change is comming very soon and with that results usually is not good first few tournaments untill new blood learns how to play well in fiba.


Its wont be easy to replace some 5-6 euroleague players in one summer.

I almost sure our 2025 NT will clearly weaker than 2024 .

NT 2025 will look more like 2023 NT. When like half of the players will be not from euroleague,but lower levels.

[Shawshank]

Overall when I look at our 2024 roster its veteran group . 7 players is at 30 or older age in 2024.

Sabonis at 28 is closer to Grigonis group than young blood.


Trio Jokubaitis,Sedekerskis,Sirvydis is young blood at 24-26 age.

We will see it be 8th veteran Bendzius or 4th young blood Tubelis in qualification.


In Olympics with Valanciunas it would be 8 players from 30+ group + Sabonis at peak + 3 young blood

[Straight forward]

I almost sure our 2025 NT will clearly weaker than 2024 .

NT 2025 will look more like 2023 NT. When like half of the players will be not from euroleague,but lower levels.

I disagree. I think there's a good chance we'll have 2025 NT as superior to 2024. FOA, Sabonis most likely will show up. He already missed 2023 and there's a gap in 2026, so why not to play in 2025? He has 4 years contract with Kings, no problem. Injuries aside he'll show up. Grigonis' PAO next season will be even more stacked and most likely healthier than it was this season, so Grigonis will play limited, I think 10-14mpg role. He'll be fresh enough to expect to show up for NT. JV seems to be determined to play forever in the NT it seems, I say this begrudgingly. I think NT would be better off without him, but I see a decent chance that best older will show up.

Not to mention that there's realistic chance to see Matas Buzelis, who I think next summer already might be most superior SF we can possibly have. Surely a possibility.

Other core players ATM are young - Jokubaitis, Brazdeikis, Sedekerskis, Sirvydis and such young players as Tubelis, Marciulionis, Rubstavicius should be ready to help in 2025 as well.

In the best case scenario we would have something like that:

Jokubaitis, Marciulionis, Lekavicius
Grigonis, Brazdeikis, Rubstavicius
Buzelis, Sirvydis
Sedekerskis, Tubelis
Sabonis, Valanciunas

In my opinion it would mean 2025 > 2024.

JV, Grigonis, Sabonis more or less the same. While players like Jokubaitis, Buzelis, Brazdeikis, Sirvydis, Sedekerskis, Tubelis, Marciulionis, Rubstavicius are all on a big rise and are all at least EL material as their upside. There's a good chance that we will have all EL level team in 2025. Imagine almost prime Jokubaitis, Brazdeikis, Sirvydis, Sedekerskis. Those for alone is a huge push forward. I'm really excited about next Olympic cycle. 2025 will be nice and 2027 might already be deadly.

Even if the team would be very young it would still be extremely promising. Give Jokubaitis, Sirvydis, Brazdeikis, Sedekerskis and Tubelis more freedom. It's still pretty nice names.

[Hepcat]

Summing up this Lithuanian club season I have these:

Biggest risers:

1. Jakucionis
2. Krivas
3. Sedekerskis.
4. Sirvydis.
5. Marciulionis
6. Rubstavicius.
7. Tubelis.
8. D.Giedraitis
9. Juzenas.
10. Rapelis/Butajevas


Remained at the same level or projection: Sabonis, D-Mo, Buzelis, Kuzminskas, Ulanovas, R. Giedraitis, Grigonis, Normantas, Indrusaitis, Buika, Birutis

Disappointing seasons (in some cases because of playing time): Murauskas, Brazdeikis, Lekavicius (EL), Butkevicius, Valanciunas, R. Giedraitis, Kulboka (injured), Bendzius, Lelevicius, Blazevic.

You have Rokas Giedraitis in two categories. Plus I'd add Arnas Velička to the same level category and both Vaidas Kariniauskas and Kristupas Žemaitis to the disappointing seasons category.