2024 Lithuanian NT

[Straight forward]

Grigonis IN for Olympic qualification. Good news. I think so far there was no declines. Maybe only some Ulanovas is not decided yet. But he is not some kind of game changer either. Still nice piece and I hope he'll play, but I don't see much problems if he won't play either. I would even like to see Butkevicius in a good shape more than having Ulanovas. Butkevicius still can provide elite defence I believe, I don't really think Ulanovas can anymore. He has more offense though, but primarily offensive options will be Jokubaitis, Grigonis, Brazdeikis, Sabonis, (Valanciunas), not Ulanovas.

[Shawshank]

Rokas Giedraitis also said is in for Olympic summer.

2 highest scoring lithuanians in euroleague this season Grigonis and Giedraitis openly said if they will be invited will come and help LTU NT.


Its getting clear in olympic summer 95% players will want to participate like in manny other olympic summers before too


Competion for spots of 9 to 12 in NT 2024 will be chalenging

Some euroleague players like Dimsa,Dmo,Lekavicius, both Giedraitis have no quarantess to make 2024 roster.

[Straight forward]

What are the chances that Giedraitis won't be trash again in the NT, I'm thinking. I have no reason to believe that this time he will be much better. He says he cleared his mind, who knows, but essentially I just congratulate him for positive message about NT, spreading good attitude.

I think from perimeter guards true EL players are Jokubaitis, Grigonis, Brazdeikis (and their shape will be the key for 2024 NT) and R. Giedraitis, but the latter sucks in the NT and is really bad short stretches player. I don't treat Lekavicius (not anymore), Dimsa (never was), D. Giedraitis (not yet) true EL players.

I believe Sirvydis is already better player overall than Dimsa, Lekavicius, D. Giedraitis and in the NT context he's better than R. Giedraitis, I believe. Also I tend to think that Rubstavicius is already on the same tier with Dimsa, D. Giedraitis and probably better then them. I don't see Dimsa being as consistent in NBL and shooting 50% threes, as Rubstavicius does. He is amazingly consistent for 21yo. Dimsa is still inconsistent, as he was all career long. Last 4 games his efficiency is negative and he scores 1 point per game.

Kazys will have a hard time to make the decisions. I don't think NT needs all Grigonis, Brazdeikis, R. Giedraitis, Sirvydis. All offensive players. Unless Maksvytis will decide to go with offensive identity hell or high water, he will have to choose one between R. Giedraitis and Sirvydis most likely.

If Maksvytis will take Marciulionis as a back up PG (no idea if that's realistic when we speak about Kazys), I think it's OK to have one from Marciulionis/D. Giedraitis to throw on small agile guards defensively. But if he cuts Marciulionis, D. Giedraitis must be in, cause Maksvytis will be ridiculed by small guards such as Alavarado otherwise.

This huge availability of players may change if say Dimsa goes off with shoulder surgery, Butkevicius again will face health issues (he has been injury prone recently). Ulanovas will decline again, Rubstavicius will skip it because of NBA draft (if invited at all, we do know how Maksvytis ignored Sirvydis in 2022) and lastly (I really hope not!) Grigonis back collapses again. Only time will tell how things will develop.

If all players available, I have this team ATM:

Jokubaitis, Marciulionis
Grigonis, Brazdeikis, Rubstavicius
Butkevicius, Sirvydis
Sedekerskis, Ulanovas
Sabonis, Valanciunas, Tubelis

I take Rubstavicius because I go with huge standout, instead of established mediocrity (R. Giedraitis is something more than mediocrity a bit in EL, but he sucks in NT and can't cope with short stretches). I have those 10 or less minutes per game to such huge talent as Rubsta. Neither R. Giedraitis, Dimsa, D. Giedraitis, Rubstavicius will do wonders in those 5-10mpg which as third SG, so I give it for a player with incomparabily highest upside and Rubsta has been playing well and consistent. Ulanovas would play only 4 in my book. And Tubelis shifting between 4 and 5 for a role (5-10mpg).

If Kazys cuts Marciulionis and takes Lekavicius, I have this:

Jokubaitis, Lekavicius
Grigonis, Brazdeikis, D. Giedraitis
Butkevicius, Sirvydis
Sedekerskis, Ulanovas
Sabonis, Balanciuans, Tubelis

[Shawshank]

We can like or dislike R.Giedraitis but leading lithuanian euroleague scorer cant be ignored and not invited.

Dimsa would be stupid making not forced surgery after playing lkl finals in early June and not play in early July on his only olympic chance. He will make surgery unless there will no other option health wise that would be my guess.

5 best players from 2023 tournament was Valanciunas,Jokubaitis,Brazdeikis,Sedekerskis,Kuzm inskas i would be very suprised if they wouldnt be locks.

4 players Sabonis,Grigonis,Ulanovas, Butkevicius have name and captain quality weights that would be very problematic to cut if they will be in camp

Jokubaitis
Grigonis,Brazdeikis
Butkevicius, Ulanovas
Sedekerskis,Kuzminskas
Sabonis,Valanciunas


all other players will have to win their spots.

Coaches will have to choose one between R.Giedraitis and Sirvydis very similiar players and no place for both.

one from Dimsa,D.Giedraitis,Lekavicius,Normantas (near top 9 players best fit playing wise Dimsa)

one from Dmo,Bendzius,Tubelis,Birutis types (near top 9 best fit playing wise Bendzius)

[Straight forward]

I had Kuzminskas a lock basically, but looking how Sirvydis looks...hands down. Kuz wouldn't be able to bring such numbers with such efficiency. The thing is Kuz can't play 4. He's three in my opinion and now I'm leaning towards Sirvydis. Not only he is already better, top scorer of Eurocup, but he's more versatile as well, can shift to 2 if needed. Kuz too soft and doesn't even feel well at 4. To me Ulanovas at 4 is a good solution, so I don't need Bendzius. Ulanovas is way better defender at 4 and way more versatile offensively than Bendzius (or Kuz). So now I don't have Kuz as a lock anymore. Specially that he has injury.

I have almost zero doubt that Tubelis will be that combo 4/5. No-one is even close in terms of quality, unless we treat Sedekerskis like one, but he's combo forward rather. D-Mo, Birutis are not candidates if both Domas and JV are in. They would be in similar situation as Birutis was last summer (no need of third lumberjack center).

My first line-up, IMO, would be most versatile, and you can even consider switching D. Giedraitis with Rubstavicius to have more defense.

It will be interesting to see how Makvytis will handle this. I believe he won't be looking at the names. He will try to make the right puzzle. He already lost 2 tournaments looking at names too much in the first place (the biggest red flag was releasing Sedekerskis in 2022). If Maksvytis would go only by names and status, he would choose this team:

Rokas, Lekavicius
Grigas, Iggy, R. Giedraitis
Ulanovas, Butkevicius
Sedekerskis, Kuzmisnkas
Sabonis, Valanciunas, D-Mo

But that won't be Olympic team 2024.

[Shawshank]

Kuzminskas have place in NT 2024 in his last olympic . For never saying no even for window NT games and being really good in 2022 and 2023 too. He was really good comming of the bench that cold blooded veteran that plays on his own speed . Last 2 fiba tournaments was my favourite NT Kuzminskas version with not scared eyes anymore.

So if you looking at Kazys taste its clear Dimsa and D.Giedraitis will be high on his list. Lekavicius would have no chance making the team

Ulanovas will be put in starting 5 to play 25min by Kazys taste


Lineups according to +- with Bendzius shooting at PF was really good in 2023.That he got injured before serbian game really hurt our teams spacing.Near Sabonis skillsets Bendzius is clearly best fit from big candidates

When we have Sabonis and Sedekerskis i dont see why we need raw Tubelis and not extra shooting big.I wouldnt be fan seeing 4 below averages shooting bigs and only one Kuzminskas that is good shooter from bigs.

for those 10-12 spots coach needs specific type player for specific roles. Thats why Dimsa or Bendzius works better

and why neither R.Giedraitis or Sirvydis worked in role players spots last 2 tournaments.They both need to play alot and be in rhythm to shoot well


This summer will be very short preparation, no time for more than 16-17 top players and youngster who wanted to earn trust of head coach it was 2023 summer with half of our B team.

2024 olympic summer is for proven and established players. For newcomers summer will be next one 2025

[Straight forward]

Kuz deserves, but it's about paying respect, it's about competing. I'm generally sure Kuz will be in, but I would choose today Sirvydis most likely cause he can play better than he did in 2023. Kuz also similar option basically. It's not certain who's better in the NT context ATM. Sirvydis after such season would feel more comfortable in the NT I think.


To me Ulanovas is better fit at 4 cause he's higher level player and shoots threes 37% in EL, he's pretty good at stretching the floor cause in his career he took tons of difficult threes playing for Zalgiris, off the dribble too. Bendzius can only catch and shoot. Ulanovas can be facilitator from position 4, he can post up, play pick and roll and most importantly he's better defender.

[Shawshank]

Ulanovas also shows clear signs that in his plans is olympic summer.

To point that he even agrees to help NT in window games


2024 it will be LTU A team only injuries can take maybe max 1-2 players all other top ltu players want to play

Its last chance for 1992-1996 players to unite their strenghts and try to qualife to Olympics. They are not dummies they saw the draw and they know its very fair chance to qualife.

[Shawshank]

Watched Grigonis 15pts vs Armani

Every time i watching this season Grigonis running fast its like watching 35 old veteran. He tries his best but his speed is clearly bothered by his bad back,


What Marius have right now going for him : he is at his peak of his basketball understanding where to be,when to put up a speed and when not to bother ,very calm not rushing his shots,plays with brain all the time.

Panathinaikos mostly plays him at SF (with 2 other ball handlers) . I have feeling at 30 being 1m98 long and bad backup being Sf is his best position right now.

Grigonis in Panathinaikos under ataman at SF role is similiar Krunoslav Simon used to play under Ataman in efes championship teams (near 2 elite ball handlers)


But thats not what NT 2024 would need for him. NT have so manny options at SF thats clearly coaches will be interested put Grigonis in SG.

But eye test says to me his back limitations will make hard for him to have the ball alot and do all that dribbling under pressure for 25-30min.

[Straight forward]

Ulanovas still "I'm not decided yet". Classy... He sort of plans, but he can't say openly like Giedraitis did. Ulanovas has been bad example for future player, hopefully none is too impressed with that.

This window with Ulanovas, R. Giedraitis and hopefully Jokubaitis will be a quality look for NT fans. Interesting situation with Rubstavicius. NBL season ends Feb 19 and NT playing on 22 with Poland. It would be very nice to see him and have a sense where he stands now as a player, specially that probably D. Giedraitis will be in too.

For window I would like to see such team:

Jokubaitis, Lekavicius
R. Giedraitis, D. Giedraitis, Rubstavicius
Ulanovas, Sirvydis, Kuzminskas
Bendzius, Orelikas,
Birutis, Tubelis

(Dimsa has injury, no need to overuse him now, if Rubstavicius out, take Normantas)

Just expect solid 2 wins against Poland and Estonia. Both respectable opponents, but it should be solid wins and a chance to have a bit of preparation for OG qualification in a way.

[Straight forward]

Overall, really positive week for LTU basketball. FOA, Grigonis continues to play his best BB which give hope we'll see him playing well, Brazdeikis had a good week finally and he should get more chances in the rest of the season hopefully, Jokubaitis is doing well in EL lately, Grimau doesn't unleash him as much as I would like, but he's playing in Barca after all. These three perimeter players are the key ATM. They are main weapons in the perimeter and all should be ready. Both Rokas and Iggy will be stronger and more aggressive than previously and Grigonis just has to play smart, just as he do now in PAO. Hope his 4th quarter threes will fall this time, not like as in 2022 EB.

Then there's good signs from guard role players. R. Giedraitis still do what he does, but I don't see him being what NT needs for a role player. Rubstavicius, Marciulionis doing great for what they should at this stage, D. Giedraitis and Dimsa playing good season overall for role players of Zalgiris. Only Lekavicius on a decline generally, but I think it's time to unleash Marciulionis with his bulldog D and aggressive facilitation. Maksvytis will have decent pool to choose role guards.

At 3 Sirvydis shinning. Kuz had a good season before injury. The key to me is to have healthy Butkevicius. He would glue the D a lot between 2-4 position, cleaning 50/50 situations if he's 100% ready.

Sederskis has been great. If Ulanovas shows up, he can improve our 4 position and make NT more flexible and overall better defensively.

Domas feasting, JV still has for a monster offensive back up and Tubelis can bring some fresh legs and athleticism operating between 4 and 5.

Overall, picture looks really positive. I think we can gather the best team since 2008. I do believe this team can be on the same tier with 2012 Olympic Team and even a bit better. I don't see us being as good as in 2008 yet (there was still very good Jasikevicius, prime Siskauskas, already strong Kleiza, solid Kaukenas, solid Lavrinovic and very strong defensive center Javtokas and quality role players as Jankunas, Jasaitis and such).

But having prime Sabonis, still good JV, already good Jokubaitis on FIBA stage, still prime Grigonis, pretty good Brazdeikis, super role player Sedekerskis and quality role pieces as Ulanovas, Butkevicius, Sirvydis, makes me think we are surely can match 2012 talent pool and even exceed it a bit, IMO. I definitely don't ask medals from this team. But if things will click, and say Jokubaitis and Sabonis will brake out on FIBA stage, we can even win overachieve and win something as an opportunity.

[Shawshank]

Rubstavicius and Marciulionis wont even be invited to camp. They are not real candidates for 2024.


Tubelis and Sirvydis will be invited but wont be favourite to make the team looking that everybody is IN.


SF lineup of Butkevicius,Ulanovas,Grigonis,R.Giedraitis,Brazdei kis,Sirvydis,Kuzminskas is so deep that coaches cant take all of them.

My guess is one from R.Giedraitis/ Sirvydis wont make it.


Rubstavicius 2024 inexperience version have zero chance competing in this experience euroleague wolfs group (thats why he wont even be invited)


Having so manny SF lenght type dudes its clear lineup Sabonis at C and put 4 shooting wings/guards must be used atleast 10minute per game in some matchups even more.


Thats why i would seriuosly consider taking just 3 real bigs Domas,Jonas,Sedekerskis and use all those Kuzminskas,Ulanovas,Butkevicius types at PF if needed. We have so manny 2m00 type wings they must rotate through 3 positions.

Playing Puerturico and Italy team clearly dont need more than 2-3 bigs.If qualification would shown we need one more big team can make changes before olympics.I rather use Dmo/Birutis/Tubelis big roster spot on D.Giedraitis for just puerturico matchup.


Latvia played Smidt and Bertans,Grazulis all tournament long in big positions and almost eliminated gold medal winners.They had one long 2m15 dude but never played him.I dont get why NT need 4th bad shooting big in roster how game is played in 2020s .

All 4th non shooting big will do is make easier to double team Domas/Jonas for opponents.

[Straight forward]

How do you know that Marciulionis and Rubstavicius won't be invited? I my opinion they should be invited, specially Marciulionis cause PG back-up position is butt naked with Lekavicius decline. Kariniauskas is trash. I sincerely believe it, I'm actually sure that Bickauskis is a better player than Kariniauskas and that says a lot. Marciulionis will be invited, unless Maksvytis will make early decision to go with Lekavicius all the way, just as he did it with Kariniauskas. There's no other way around. Rubsta may not be invited, specially if there's NBA draft and shit, but he is better than you realize, I see. He's a beast piece and legitimate NBA prospect. I think he's already the most consistent shooter after Grigonis in the country. He literally shoots 50% of threes in NBL and takes almost 3 shots each game. He takes some difficult shots too and even makes it with a contact some. So this 50% is surreal. That kind of piece can't be ignored. It would be great to see him in upcoming window though. For this summer Rubsta is not a must, but you can't ignore him either.

Grigonis and Brazdeikis will play the 2 in the NT.

Yesterday you wrote that Birutis and D-Mo are candidates to make it Now you only need Domas and JV. I actually agree. The less slow lumberjacks the better. You can have one in JV and that's enough. To me, it's either Domas, JV, Sedas or these 3 and plus Tubelis. I think Maksvytis will go with the latter cause he's no huge exprimentalist and he already wanted that 4/5 dude last summer and took Maldunas.

Today there's Grigonis, Kuzminskas and Sirvydis as best fit to play around Domas cause they are plus shooter (or at least Sirvydis has that upside if he continues to shoot as he has been shooting in last 2 months). R. Giedraitis has been sucking in the NT, even though he's a solid shooter in EL. There's also Bendzius as plus shooter for his position, so he remains a candidate. That's why Rubstavicius should already be tested as legitimate candidate. He's a plus shooter at guard position and, IMO, most consistent shooter already along with Grigonis in the country. Yeah, you don't know if rookie will nail those in NT at first, but we do know R. Giedraitis has been sucking despite being a vet for a fact Iggy got away with good shooting as a rookie.

Iggy so far shoots in NT surprisingly well, but I'm not sure it's sustainable. He will have disappointing shooting tournaments in the future I think. His 52% in WC was surreal and it will be hard to repeat. D. Giedraitis shoots 48.6% in EL and 48,3% in LKL, but he attempts only 1,6 threes per game (both EL and LKL) and usually takes just wide open catch and shoot threes, so I have him only as solid shooter, but not Plus shooter. Plus shooter to me is a guy who can shoot off the dribble, who can take difficult spot ups off the staggers, who can pull up quickly in the fast brake. From that breed I see only Grigonis, Sirvydis, Kuzminskas, Rubstavicius ATM generally (and maybe Bendzius).

Problem is that Kuz and Bendzius are very vulnerable defensively. Specially Kuz. We were butt naked with him at 4 in EB 2022. Even when he played well offensively he caused so much problems defensively. When you have Domas and Kuz at the front, you have a problem. We needed Sedekerskis to hold on Garuba against Spain. Spain just exposed our weak defense. You can't play with Kuz at 4. Just can't.

[Shawshank]

Because they have zero experience of highest levels and coach will have 2 weeks prep no time to explain for newcomers everything and check are they ready or not.

Team will be put in very hostile envirenment in puerturico ( similair to 2012 Caracas) coach will need grown up men that wont panick when things wont go according to plan.NT Rookies have no chance helping in such atmosphere.


My prediction : not from euroleague and nba players only Sirvydis and Tubelis will get invites what im seeing now and even they far from having spot in final roster.

Yesterday i was talking about just candidates,today im talking who i would take to final roster looking at main players strenghts and future opponnets..Thats 2 diffrent things.


I would say D.Giedraitis skillsets is needed more for 2024 NT than Sirvydis or Tubelis skillsets.Not because D.Giedraitis is better player,but because his skillsets not clear who can do from euroleague players.

Tubelis things Sabonis and Sedekerskis can do just better. Sirvydis skillset Grigonis,R.Giedraitis, to lesser degree Iggy too can do and they are way more experienced and battle tested.



Same way like R.Giedraitis was sucking in 2022,in same way Sirvydis was sucking in 2023. Not a fan overall in fiba rough game of such soft type shooters that plays no defence.

I can see Butkevicius,Ulanovas,Brazdeikis,Grigonis helping much more because i predict they will adapt better to wild americas hostile envirenment.

[Straight forward]

In my opinion Marciulionis is must to invite. His defence, physicality and ability to create for others can be very valuable. Most importantly he can bite opponent's necks such as Mannion (who is playing well in Italian league) and Alvarado for some 10-15min. Even if he wouldn't bring much offensively, he at the very least can contribute the ball solidly and that defence is a must. Team as Puerto Rico will throw two midgets who can score a lot, and in some stretches you might even want to have both Marciulionis and D. Giedraitis playing. Defense translates to any level and any pressure basically. Kariniauskas would suck a cock at D, we now that. Jokubaitis won't be much of a stopper. Lekavicius also, specially current one. We need athleticism and real defensive grip that Augis and Dovis can offer.

Rubstavicius depending on situation. But I would invite him. No problem to cut him if you see he's not ready.

So

Lekavicius
D. Giedraitis, T. Dimsa
R. Giedraitis
Ulanovas
Birutis

are all in for window.

Hope Jokubaitis, Sirvydis, Rubstavicius, Normantas, Radzevicius, Tubelis, Kuzminskas, Bendzius will join them, or some of these players.