The Future of Lithuanian NT

[Straight forward]

Dinosour expert

I dont get your logic for 2-3 years here non stop u were writting how Tubelis and Marciulionis is very special tallents that ltu basketball didnt have for years and very soon that core of 2000-2002 will bring LTU to contending again.

Now when those 2 are only 22 years old your ale big experts eyes already dont believe in them?

You're too addicted to your No.1 hobby in your life to hunt my posting flaws and nitpick, Rednecky Too eager.

17-18yo Marciulionis and Tubelis displayed enough upside to be considered as NBA prospects (at least Tubelis surely), somewhere of the second round territory. And what exactly happened with them? Nothing, they ended up more on the down side of their projections (floor rather than ceiling). Both will be solid EL players. NBA upside as their most optimistic projection didn't work for them (even though it shouldn't be 100% ruled out, but essentially they are not sure fire NBA material), but they still good players. As 18yo Marciulionis to me really looked like semi transcendent prospect to me at times and he displayed very intriguing physicality, body control, IQ, but simply he didn't reach next level just to cement himself as true NBA material. Not that super aggressive and explosive, but nevertheless people still be surprised in Europe how good Marciulionis is.

As I said already, I firmly believe that with this core - Jokubaitis, Marciulionis, Sirvydis, D. Giedraitis, Rubstavicius, Brazdeikis, Sedekerskis, Tubelis we could contend more or less if it was early 10's, let's say 2010-2015 stretch. Even if some of the guys ended up more of an lower side of their upside. It's still very talented bunch of group. And really don't feel that it is less talented than Kalnietis, Pocius, Seibutis, Maciulis, Kuzminskas kinda core. But as we know since some 2017 and specially some since 2021 we entered superstar FIBA era, like NBA MVP level players or FIBA superstars level players took place and raised the bar significally. Not only contending teams have couple of big NBA players, but also super deep benches which creates super teams. That's why I'm emphasizing not only NBA world class pieces as KJ, Buzelis, Domas, but very deep bench as essentials to build a team that can contend in today's FIBA.

And I do believe a lot in Marciulionis and Tubelis as a role players. Simply much better, incomparably better prospect Jakucionis entered the stage. We are super lucky. So it's blessing to have 3 high level PGs. For Augis it will be hard to find minutes cause he's not effective without the ball. He can't be moved to 2. If I was a coach I actually hire Marciulionis as a strong back-up because of his pure facilitation, defence and aggression and use Jokubaitis more of a combo. Both KJ and Jokubaitis are pretty effective off ball (KJ is nearly equally effective on and off ball which makes him one of the most complete guards in the world and most complete guard in NCAA now), so either of them can play as 2 next Marciulionis. I would actually use those true ball handlers playing together a lot, just as Jasikevicius often wants to have at least 2 and sometimes 3 true ballhandlers in the game. Theoretically I would even see a chance to use Marciulionis, Jokubaitis, Jakucionios in one lineup. KJ is 198cm with plus wingspan. He can survive the 3 defensively against smaller line-ups. The creation would go of the roof, specially knowing that some Buzelis stands at 4.

To sum up, if Jasikevcius will take the wheel since 2029 he will have an amazing pallet to work with. So many good players and tons of ideas how to use them, a lot of variations. Such coach as Saras would be so blessed with it and he would make the most of it. Cause in 2029 there will also be 22-23yo Buika available as another super creative and explosive true guard. Indrusaitis at that time will be a massive dominant shooting guard. We'll need a good coach to handle all this cause with such deep talent pool it's a huge task to establish spot on rotation and most winning line-ups. Only Jasikevicius would make the best of it.

[Shawshank]

Dinosour expert

I dont get your logic for 2-3 years here non stop u were writting how Tubelis and Marciulionis is very special tallents that ltu basketball didnt have for years and very soon that core of 2000-2002 will bring LTU to contending again.

Now when those 2 are only 22 years old your ale big experts eyes already dont believe in them?

[Straight forward]

Want to greet our wing players. Sirvydis embraced his role as a PRO for very strong Zalgiris. He can do more than he does now, but doesn't whine just do what is asked. I'm very happy to see how calmly Sirvydis embraced more of a spot up shooters role and delivers with amazing 44.3% from three with almost 5 attempts per game in EL. I hope he will round more and more into consistent shooter.

Also Rubstavicius. In LKL shoots 45% with 4 shots, and 38% in Eurocup with 5 shots.

Such role players will be vital. And it seems that they are developing nicely.

KJ, Buzelis (and Jokubaitis and in his own ways Sabonis as well, but to much lesser extent than in NBA) will have the ball in their hands. But players playing next to them should be good shooters and good cutters. Good players without the ball. Not that role players won't be aggressive with the ball here and there, we do know Sirvydis is crafty going down hill, we do know such players as Indrusaitis, Murauskas have more ISO presence than average elite Lithuanian prospects, but nevertheless it's the key to have great off ball shooters. That's a little bit of concern cause we don't have such players as Stombergas anymore. Or even better example some Mindaugas Zukauskas. Those were shooting consistently all their career. So to me it's a lack of such shooting reliability from current role players. I still don't feel that Sirvydis and Rubstavicius (the same goes to Indrusaitis, Murauskas, Lelevicius) are that reliable, but signs this season nevertheless are promising. So if they will grow into consistent shooters enough, we will be in terrific situation. So far Sirvydis shows the best example how to adjust next to dominant ball handlers and actually he still never played with elite facilitators.

Marciulionis role to me becomes unclear. He is terrific pass first old school PG, but KJ is three heads better than any PG and will occupy the position big time. Jokubaitis will back him up and will play together with KJ some too. Marciulionis can play only position 1, off ball he's not good, so likely his role will be minimal or he will play more only when one of KJ/Jokubaitis won't be available. Also I don't see much role for Iggy anymore. He's not that explosive, and with KJ and Buzelis emerging, it's completely different tier and the aggression will come from them full time. Let alone the fact that Indrusaitis, Murauskas are more gifted ISO players than Brazdeikis and at the same time higher IQ. Again, even Sirvydis and Rubstavicius has an upper hand on Brazdeikis as players overall and Trinchieri understands that too. Iggy already left a mark in the NT and should be important in 2025, but essentially falls out from the puzzle. His body is not evolving anymore, he's not getting stronger and his ceiling seems fairly low at the moment. I would even say it feels like he declined a bit physically. Better players will change him.

[Straight forward]

You underestimate the pressure of do or die games. It is something different to play 10 minutes in a NBA rs game or a quarter final knock out quarter final game. Buzelis should be on the roster and you also can try him out during the group stage but be ready that he is going to make some crucial mistakes.

No-one knows how they will cope. What we do know that LTU mediocre players SURELY CAN'T cope with that Buzelis has 2025 to go through mistakes, 2027 still a bit. In 2028 should be rolling full force and full confidence.

KJ is super matured for his age. His ahead of his age 3-5 years. Next season in NBA he will get an instant role, IMO. He will come to WC after 2 seasons of NBA experience.

In certain ways I trust KJ more. His IQ is unmatched. I don't care about 3-4 tos. He is a machine of aggression and decision making. No better players in the world with screens aside Doncic likely. With hm our offensive will be COMPLETELY different.

Contend is not necessary means to win it all or medals. Contend is meaning your level is really there too make semis and play as equal with top dogs. KJ and Buzelis will get us there. Hopefully Sabonis still an All Star and such pieces as Indrusaitis, Murauskas ready for 2028 as well. So we have full hardcore starting 5 ready and great deep bench.

[Toruko]

You underestimate the pressure of do or die games. It is something different to play 10 minutes in a NBA rs game or a quarter final knock out quarter final game. Buzelis should be on the roster and you also can try him out during the group stage but be ready that he is going to make some crucial mistakes.

[Straight forward]

LTU never was in situation when 18yo PG is about to become the best guard in the country already. Give him 3-5 months more and it may not even be a question that he's the best LTU guard overall already.

The same goes with Buzelis. Will he be the best forward this summer already? IMO, yes. I don't see better even now. Sedkerskis, Sirvydis? Maybe. But simply no-one has the size, athleticism and skill package of Matas. He affects the game at both size and seems like a guy already who can drop 10ppg with 23mpg on a constant basis. I don't see any other Lithuanians who could do that on NBA court. Last 3 games he's 13ppg guy in 20min. In FIBA he will have to learn and adjust (differently than KJ), but if I have to rank forwards today as club players I would rank: 1 Buzelis, 2 Sedekerskis, 3 Sirvydis (as for guards I give equal tie for those - Jokubaitis/Grigonis/Jakucionis).

Essentially 18yo and 20yo taking over LTU basketball. We need this shift. Long decades of the lack of talent and now boom 2 basketball prodigies changing the narrative radically. It's the most radical shift, plot twist, transformation in LTU BB history or second one. Off course I mean Arvydas and Rooney as first one, but Rooney wasn't so early bloomer as KJ it seems. Sabonis was a killer as 18yo already, he literally could play big BB among the best at this age, but we don't know how good Rooney was at this age. He probably became a beast more like being 21-23yo. I can't say a word on it cause I don't know.

2027 with 21yo KJ and 23yo Buzelis will be massive I already can't wait. And I think we might be even contending in 2028. Like literally contending. I believe we got so good gems in KJ, Buzelis.

ATM, both KJ (I didn't expect he will reach even another level in terms of facilitation so fast, he's a magician) and Buzelis (the game slowing down for him really fast in last month) are exceeding even my expectations. Both are transcendent players.

[Straight forward]

Super fun season so far and I have great news for you. We have locked answers for 4 stating 5 positions (long term):

1 Jakucionis
3 Buzelis
4 Murauskas
5 Sabonis

Assuming Sabonis will play high level till 35yo. IMO, with his fitness and healthy lifestyle he'll be elite till that if not longer.

KJ without comments, I gave it in PG thread. There's no doubt he's future leader and key player.
Buzelis will be good. Very good. At worst he'll be superole player with multidimentional impact, and Wagner light at best.
Murauskas has it. He has killers instinct and feel for the most efficient ways to score. He will be a threat at 4 position with his in and out offensive presence and he can rebound.
Domas is Domas. All NBA guy and with KJ's ultra facilitation he'll be better in the NT.

So the only answer that I'm not 100% sure is SG. My main guy is Indrusaitis. He had very nice debut in NCAA and has tons of promise. Dropped 20ppg at U18 and all, but we still have to wait and see how he will look at PRO. He is not transecndent prospect as KJ, but surely very gifted. We have to see how his physicality will translate to PROs. He will add some muscle and might become a bit more rigid. We lost some very gifted SGs this way, like Varnas f.e. Nojus won't be that, but he might lose some of his skoothness duo to that. If that's not happening, he might even spend some years as deep bench guy in the NBA, IMO. He brings more handle, true 3 ways scoring and fundamentals compared to other SG candidates as Rubstavicius, Sirvydis, Lelavicius, Brazdeikis. But Ironically, there's a chance that Nojus main competitor will still be D. Giedraitis. He has a lot of fundamentals and surely more than those 4 lentghy swingmem I mention previously. So SG position is still most hard to answer, but I think Nojus has the best package. His scoring burst can be amazing, very nice combination of IQ, athleticism and skill for a typical size SG.

One interesting thing. I'm starting to believe Buika my challenge both Jokubaitis and Marciulionis at 1. He might become more explosive scorer at 1 and pretty close if not better at facilitation. He has more ISO game than both Jokubaitis and Marciulionis likely, but this thesis is a bit pre-mature. I'll have to see more. Nevertheless I see some signs that he might be more explosive and skilled player than Augis and Rokas. So the back-up PG competition will be all time high and it's nothing even close ever.

The way I see it long term, we have such depth pool:

Jakucionis, Buika, Jokubaitis, Marciulionis
Indrusaitis, D. Giedraitis, Sirvydis, Lelevicius
Buzelis, Rubstavicius, Zibuda, Brazdeikis, Juzenas
Murauskas, Sedekerskis, Tubelis
Sabonis, Krivas, Butajevas, Stombergas

Position 4 at first glance may look the thinnest, but I'm sure that Murauskas/Sedekerskis alone can fully cover it and when you can throw Buzelis and Tubelis, or even Butajevas there two it also makes super deep position. BTW, gut feeling is that Zibuda will play 4 one day if he will add few more centimeters. To me that makes terrific sense, but maybe he won't be that tall. I missed this one with Sirvydis when i was thinking that NBA will try to make a Kulboka out of him But Sirvydis luckily never added wight on and remained a nice skilled swingman.

Overall we don't lack high level players in all positions and I'm almost 100% sure that we never had deeper talent pool ever. Most importantly we nhave star material in KJ, Buzelis, Sabonis and obvious starting level pieces as Murauskas. Only now injuries and god speed you.

[Straight forward]

The picture is getting clearer for upcoming 5-6 years:

Three cornerstones from where the creation will come are clear, NBA material - Jakucionis, Buzelis, Sabonis.

All three can beat their opponent in isolation, but also have tons of creation for others.

Now when you have tons of creation, and with these there won't be too little surely, it's important how our swingmen as Rubstavicius, Sirvydis will develop in terms of shooting. I watched Rusbta SL highs and damn he's tall. His release is high even if he bends a little bit before the shot to gather himself. Sirvuha also shoots through hands. Obviously Indrusaitis and Murauskas shooting development also under the glass. If we can put shooting pieces around 3 leaders, we are flawless offensively. Even certain issues defensively wouldn't be that much a bug.

209cm Buzelis, 204cm shooters as Rubsta, Sirvydis, Murauskas and 198cm Indrusaitis will determine how good we are in terms of shooting. All have promising profiles, but none of them is stellar shooter yet. So tracking their shooting consistency will be a big part of NT development. I believe Jakcuionis will be GOOD shooting lead guard. I really like his trigger. His % goes up and down at the moment, but I see him having what it takes to be good, dynamic shooter at 1.
I wouldn't even complete write down Kulboka. I want to see him in upcoming 2 years till and maybe he can be interesting as a stretch 4 in his prime.

I think we still don't realize how lucky we are with this upcoming huge wave of talent. Underafted Rubsta with his 204cm and still pesky ability to drive and how he shoots and absorbs the contact...Dude, potentially he can be better scoring machine than Siska was in EL, IMO. That size, skill and motor. He's ridiculously overlooked. He will show it, IMO. After 2 years, he'll be on Real or so.

[Hepcat]

6 elite NCAA players. Most of them will have huge roles (except probably Indrusaitis and maybe Lelevicius). All eyes on potential leader Jakucionis for Illini. Also Krivas can cement his role to aim first round in the draft. Will be fun to see how Marciulionis and Murauskas will mesh.

Great season ahead.

We'll see in the Euro U20 tournament next summer. That'll be the bottom line after the very disappointing summer we just had.

[Straight forward]

Just to use another thread, aside NT which is about elections and new coach now, I have to say that this season is pretty amazing for LTU fans.

FOA, I think it's most stacked LKL Liths talent wise in some long long time.

Zalgiris - Brazdeikis, Sirvydis, D. Giedraitis
Rytas - Tubelis
Lietkabelis - Rubstavicius
Wolves - Kulboka (does he still has it? And how good he actually is?)

That's some serious shit.

In EL we'll see Jokubaitis with a big role finally. Sedekerskis should have even stronger season and well Grigonis (but I give up on him big time, not even sure I want to see him with NT jerseys again, IMO, we should move on).

But most importantly amazing things oversees:

Buzelis with Bulls! Some speculate that Buzelis may play most minutes of all rookies and is top 5 candidate to become ROTY. Sabonis looking for yet his best career season most likely.

6 elite NCAA players. Most of them will have huge roles (except probably Indrusaitis and maybe Lelevicius). All eyes on potential leader Jakucionis for Illini. Also Krivas can cement his role to aim first round in the draft. Will be fun to see how Marciulionis and Murauskas will mesh.

Great season ahead.

[Hepcat]

I'm waiting for the time (2029?) when our starting 5 will look like this:

Jakucionis, Indrusaitis, Buzelis, Sedekerskis, Krivas

This is defensively capable line-up which would kill at offensive end as well. And imagine Jokubaitis, Rubstavicius, Sirvydis, Murauskas, Tubelis coming off the bench with the second unite for a deadly offensive punch from the bench.

Elite....

Well maybe but I'd bet against it. When it comes to the future, crystal balls are very cloudy indeed and when it comes to sports there's many a slip twixt cup and lip.

[Straight forward]

Good word by Iowa coach on Indrusaitis:


Otzelberger: "A guy offensively who's really skilled, tremendous confidence, can really shoot the ball, IQ player, great-feel passer, just tremendous that way. He has great feet defensively. He'll continue to to elevate himself defensively because he's got the ability to do what I think what we're demanding. What we demand defensively is a different standard than probably what he's been accustomed to in the past, but he's done a great job early."

I'm waiting for the time (2029?) when our starting 5 will look like this:

Jakucionis, Indrusaitis, Buzelis, Sedekerskis, Krivas

This is defensively capable line-up which would kill at offensive end as well. And imagine Jokubaitis, Rubstavicius, Sirvydis, Murauskas, Tubelis coming off the bench with the second unite for a deadly offensive punch from the bench.

Elite, potentially funny offense (we are likely talking about superior offense that we were providing in 2004 with 94ppg) + elite 2 way lineup which can make some stops will put us in a good situation to win big. Like truly big. If Lithuania is not collecting some big time wins (likely trophies), we can forget about 1992-2008 stretch when for 2 decades we were legitimate top 4 team in the world, winning Olympic medals and the Euro title. If medals not coming with this upcoming talent, we are destined to be just solid NT for decades.The medals will be not an option for Lithuania. If we won't match world class level (current "A" USA, Canada, Serbia kinda level) with this upcoming talent, we won't see medals for a long long decades...I doubt that after this big punch of talent which is coming basically at the same time (8 years span), we'll see anything relatively close to this. We have a good chance to exceed both 90s and 00s NTs levels. I doubt it can get better than that for such I small country as Lithuania. It's actually a miracle that we have such a good gen coming. I don't see kids playing BB in the courts outside that much these days. Maybe they just stick to official practices, but you have to ball all the time to be good, that's how my gen saw it.

[Straight forward]

buzelis definitely didnt have a good season, but i feel like scouts underestimate his shooting ability, his mechanics look good and he was decent until he joined ignite. im not sure why, but every ignite prospect loses his shot in g league. im confident he will be a better shooter in the nba

We'll see. The line in NBA (and G- League) is further and the game is more athletic, faster. This creates very different environment for your shooting. Maybe he will adjust, maybe not so much. His shot to me looks decent, but it doesn't seem that he has very deep range. I think he will be better long mid range jump shooter than three point shooter. But expect him to be in sort of 34-38% three point shooting territory in the NBA and these numbers should be even slightly better in FIBA where the line is closer. So at least when it comes to FIBA and NT I'm not worried. He'll have enough of shooting. And we can put Jakucionis at 1 (deadly), Rubstavicius (or Sirvydis) at 2 (deadly), Murauskas at 4 (potentially deadly) around Buzelis who I see playing primarily 3 (but he can easily play some 2 or even 4). Knowing that in the future we will also use Tubelis at 5 and likely even Butajevas, both guys have a decent trigger from three as well, it makes very nice picture for Lithuania shooting wise. Shooting definitely won't be a problem. We'll have Jakucionis, Rubstavicius, Indrusaitis, D. Giedraitis, Sirvydis, Lelevicius, Murauskas, Buzelis as either elite or good shooters. Not to mention that Jokubaitis shot 55% from three in WC 2023. He wasn't taking too many shots, but still he is solid shooter (40.6% EL career).

[zalias]

buzelis definitely didnt have a good season, but i feel like scouts underestimate his shooting ability, his mechanics look good and he was decent until he joined ignite. im not sure why, but every ignite prospect loses his shot in g league. im confident he will be a better shooter in the nba

[Straight forward]

Good article on Buzelis and future of LTU NT. Shout out to Rob Karaznevic, he has a right hand on Lithuanian BB pulse. I'll quote couple of big ones.

"Lithuania is really good, and when I come over there, we're going to win everything," said Buzelis (...)

"I believe that kind of attitude is exactly what our National Team needs," Karaznevic explains. "We are experiencing a medal drought in recent years, our last medal was silver in FIBA EuroBasket 2015 and I think because we haven't won anything in so long we have simply lost our confidence and the belief that we can actually win it all — that same belief that we used to have in the golden days of players such as Sarunas Jasikevicius, Ramunas Siskauskas, Arvydas Macijauskas or Linas Kleiza wearing the Lithuanian jersey."

"That unbridled confidence that Matas is going to bring to the squad could be the thing that makes the difference and finally makes us break through the barriers and come back with a medal," Karaznevic concludes.

Later Ron correctly sums it up here. Even though he had to mention Rubstavicius as I have him as one of top 3-4 top pieces heading forward for Lithuania, but that's no biggie:

"Sabonis is still just 27 years old, Rokas Jokubaitis is not even close to reaching his prime, Deividas Sirvydis had a huge break out year and then we have Azuolas Tubelis, Motiejus Krivas, Augustas Marciulionis, Kasparas Jakucionis and of course Buzelis himself waiting for their turn," Karaznevic states before concluding: "That young core has a ton of potential and Buzelis would undoubtedly be one of its centerpieces."

Regarding Buzelis, Ricky O'Donnell also correctly noticed that Buzelis made the biggest impression at the defensive end. Comparison with Deni Avdija was a bit unexpected, cause I think Matas is more versatile and more explosive, but I think generally it's the right comparison:

"Realistically, I think he'll be in the Deni Avdija ballpark — a multi-positional defender with some playmaking chops that teams can't completely ignore from behind the three-point line," Baumbach says before warning: "If his jumper really gets going, then he could be in the All-Star mix."

Overall, fun article. I will say this. LTU BB never had so many talent coming at the same time (like 7-9 years stretch). It's deeper than all this Stombergas, Siska, Jasikevicius, Macijauskas, Songaila, Javtokas, Lavrinovic Bros kinda stretch. I know for some it sounds surreal, but that's exactly what it is.

With that said I would exclude 4 players from tons of great propsects if some-one would ask around who will round the next LTU generation:

Jakucionis, Buzelis, Rubstavicius, Indrusaitis

These four players alone, IMO, can lift as to next, elite level. After these I would mention 10 more elite prospects names, but IMO those 4 alone can be exactly and enough of what it takes for Lithuania to reach next level. They have the prime skill, IQ, ISO presence and defensive competitiveness.

https://www.fiba.basketball/eurobasket/2025/qualifiers/news/next-big-thing-why-nba-prospect-matas-buzelis-will-be-lithuania-s-future-superstar