The Future of Lithuanian NT

[Straight forward]

One of these days when I'm locked in for BB, so couple of more thoughts on the future (and present) pieces.

Few more reason why Matas Buzelis success and dedication to NT will be the key if we expect to build great team. IMO, he's the only true answer defensively at 3. Buzelis may struggle to guard small agile guards a bit, but with his size and active hands (he's really good at deflections) he can be a really good defensive piece at 3. And he's probably the only prospect with a good defensive upside at 3. Some will say Sedekerskis can play here, but I want Tadas to play 4. You can see what good things happen when you allow him to crash the boards. He will outrebound you and will brake the glass and will use his physicality. He has to play almost entirely 4 and even some 5. Brazdeikis is a bad defender and will never be good. Sirvydis also (even though has better motor and active hands). One more piece that may be solid defender at 3 is Lelevicius. As 201cm he can and will be used at 3 some, but I think he will be more of a 2 and exactly in this position with his length and skill can be most dominant. At 3 Lelevicius may lack a bit of size and strength to certain extent probably. Nevertheless I see the need of Buzelis at 3 as one of the keys of future NT. He can be glue guy with his help defense a little bit, and he is solid laterally and can combine interior and perimeter defense.

Another reason is why Buzelis is the key at 3 cause it sets nearly perfect chemistry with Paulius Murauskas who offensively is one of the keys of the future. Murauskas is a great and I would even say underrated prospect. His offensive upside is nothing but massive. IMO, we should compare Murauskas with such players as Kleiza, Stombergas. The best comparison from LTU players is Kleiza. That's the only 2 forwards in history with legitimate in and out scoring. Both can cook from perimeter and both can post up. Now Kleiza was much more athletic, that's true. But while both stand 6.8 (203-204cm), Murauskas has longer wingspan. He's a better passer and better decision maker than Kleiza. Both are tough inside for their size and great rebounders (I think Murauskas is even better cause he grabs now ridiculous 6,5rpg in just 16mpg for Wildcats) and I would say that Murauskas has more moves and more fundamentally sound post game. Whenever Murauskas can be as deadly scorer as Kleiza was will remain to be seen (probably not), but knowing his way better facilitation and passing game and overall being higher IQ player, at the end of the day Murauskas can be even superior to Kleiza in the NT. The main problem, and here I come back to Buzelis, that Murauskas has pretty crappy lateral quickness. He not only can't to stay with guards, but also may struggle with faster small forwards. That's why we need Murauskas at 4. He is a pretty good and competitive post defender and good rebounder. He has better core strength and love the contact more than Buzelis (who essentially has guards mentality). So if Buzelis covers the 3, we can comfortably land the most offensively talented 4 prospect Murauskas at 4 and that creates perfect chemistry at 3-4 positions.

Essentially I see nearly perfect solutions for 4 position which recently seemed as nearly most problematic. Sedekerskis will be a defensive STUD at 4, and Murauskas will be primarily offensive STUD at 4 (and solid defensively at this position). And that basically closes this position entirely. We can speak about Tubelis playing here a bit too, or anyone else, but there's no much need cause former 2 potentially will be incredible luxury already.

If Buzelis pans out and becomes long term NT piece, I can see us solving position 3 completely. If not, we'll have plenty of solid/good offensive pieces, but may lack real deal defensive presence. Essentially I don't have any problems with 1-4 positions. In my opinion, we potentially we'll have all kind of pieces that will be needed to build a very good team or even great one. But I don't see piece at 5 which would be a great piece for FIBA basketball. Unless prime Sabonis will be that piece. So far we seen that Domas struggled to certain extent in FIBA and he doesn't have enough defense. We'll see how Tubelis and Krivas fit here and I expect mprovement compared to Valanciunas cause both guys are way better defensively than Jonas, but I don't see complete or spot on piece at 5 for contemporary FIBA game. It should be laterally quick, skilled (can pass) and defensively minded piece if you ask me. If Sabonis brakes out offensively in FIBA and plays a bit better defense than he previously showed, it could be just good enough to say we have absolutely everything what's needed in 2027 and 2028 stretch potentially.

Here's terrific video which shows why Murauskas has an upside to be a go to guy if necessary. And it comes form one game against Turkey, going against elite defender Berke in some possessions. And obviously I agree with Wilko about Murauskas position:

https://twitter.com/wilkomcv/status/1714821164894413070

[Straight forward]

I'm smiling thinking about rebounding potential of 2024 and going further. Sabonis is the best rebounder on the planet. Sedekerskis so far the best rebounder of EL. He even grabbed 14 rebounds in ACB, for a forward it's insane numbers. We might have the best rebounding duet in 2024 Olympics if we get there.

Rebounding upside becoming even more promising knowing that Buzelis can be thrown at 2 (much like Franz for Germany these days) and Murauskas at 3. That would make silly line-up length wise.

To me the main issue remains - true defensive center. But I can't ask too much. Such white countries as Lithuania, Serbia can't expect to have good defensive bigs all the time. From top 20 best shot blockers of all time, we have only 1 white folk - Mark Eaton. In current NBA only say Kessler, Holmgren comes as white good defenders, shot blockers. I'm looking forward whenever new trend of basketball will take place with such white players as Holmgren, Buzelis, Cooper Flagg (all white top picks potentially) who all have good shot blocking upside. But "white countries" will barely be able to truly match USA or European countries who have many citizens with African/American roots in this department. Serbian L is right. The key is to have dominant rebounders as bigs (Sabonis and Tubelis/Krivas fits the narrative well) and a good perimeter D. We should have that.

Nevertheless, I'm looking forward how Raupelis develops, he's playing too little yet in NKL as 16yo to make some conclusions, and Arturas Butajevas who can develop himself into nice mobile center. These 2 names shouldn't be overlooked, but that's a very very long shot. More like thinking about the 30's (and in my opinion first half of 30's might be golden age for LTU BB).

When it comes to 20s, we should live with what Sabonis/Tubelis/Krivas center position will bring. That's very intriguing cause none of them are as rigid and limited defensively as Valanciunas who has been covering C position last 12 years and all of them are less old school offensively (even Krivas, because of his passing, agility and most importantly quicker decision making and ability to play within the flow). Finally we'll make a modern shift, starting with 2024 (Sabonis should be big time No.1 option at the frontline). It has been devastating and frustrating decline, but very likely it ended with 2023.

[Straight forward]

they already overachieved this tournament, but it also makes me very excited about the future. if they continue playing this style of basketball in future tournaments it will only get better with players like sabonis, giedraitis, grigonis

I'm not sure I even want to see R. Giedraitis again. Sirvydis showed some nice glimpses of what he can be as a role player. He fits that role better. He always the same. Giedraitis always feels uncomfortable with limited minutes. What we surely can use is Sabonis, Grigonis, Buzekvicius, Ulanovas, Lekavicius. That would be big boost.

We will talk about this in 2024 thread later in detail, but I think 2002 generation guys will also be knocking to the NT doors heavily too. Tubelis got good words after showing up. Probably little doubt that he would take Maldunas' spot next year and play more than Maldunas does. Marciulionis likely might be in the camp finally after hopefully good NCAA season. He potentially will challenge any back-up candidate (still think Lekavicius will go to his likely last tournament with NT though). And Rubstavicius is the most important from all 2002 generation players. It's realistic that after another year (in Australia) he will already be better player than Dimsa, Normantas. I actually expect that cause this season in LKL playoffs he was nearly better than Normantas. He should be drafted in the early second round, or even late first round. In my opinion Rubstavicius is big big piece for LTU going forward. I have him as true starter at position 2. In my opinion he should be better player than Brazdeikis, and I like Iggy.

2000 guys are integrated. Next step is 2002 generation guys.

And with that alone we will be pretty much stacked, yet it's only a scratch. Later 2003 Lelevicius should be in and massive 2004 generation with Buzelis, Murauskas, Krivas and then golden 06-07 with Jakucionis, Indrusaitis and Co.

I'm literally breathless about potential 2027/2028 roster:

Jokubaitis, Marciulionis, Jakucionis
Rubstavicius, Lelevicius, Indrusaitis
Buzelis, Brazdeikis
Murauskas, Sedekerskis
Sabonis, Tubelis

(elite 21yo Buika waiting his turn)

Such players as Sirvydis, Kulboka, M. Jogela, Blazevic, D. Giedraitis, Velicka, Laurencikas, Krivas, I. Sargiunas, Raupelis and some other good prospects (many of them will be EL players) will be boderliners or say pushed aside just because there won't be enough place in the roster. If my projection is correct, NTs boderliners may collect NT that could be more or less on the same tier with regular 10's NT team in terms of talent.

[Straight forward]

Here's the deal - LTU basketball has offensive identity. In 90s it was more about offense, in 00s it was more about offense, only in tiny 2013-2015 stretch it was more about the defense. Historically we have offensive identity. Even in 2017 it was all about offense and last 2 tournaments 2019, 2022 as well. We actually were close in those two latter tournaments, but it wasn't enough.

Heading to the future it won't change, IMO. We will remain offensively minded NT. We might be relatively better defensively than in some previous stretches, but only relatively better if any.

Why? FOA, our biggest potential and current stars are offensive players. Sabonis without question and then Buzelis, Jokubaitis also. Buzelis has some defense, even serious like shot blocking, but even he in the space is not elite defender (if he improves he will be solid, but I don't think that elite).

So 3 key players at 1-3-5 which is an ultimate cornerstone in some 2027 if all show up is offensive.

Now postion 2. I take most promising 2 ways SGs in Rubstavicius and Indrusaitis. Yeah, nice upside at both ends, but if you ask whenever they are offensive or defensive players? Surely, still offensive. Brazdeikis and Lelevicius, or say D. Buika (I think that's best 5 SGs in the country) are even more offensively minded.

Potential Buzelis' back-ups at 3 should be Sirvydis, Jogela, maybe Kulboka. All offensive players.

At 4 Murauskas is also offensive player in the first place.

Not to say our defense will be trash necessary, there are a lot of pieces like Marciulionis, D. Giedraitis, Sedekerskis, Krivas, Raupelis and so on who can be good defensive role players, but our key identity will remain offensive and that's how we are. If you look at Greece or France, you often have defensive identity rather than offensive, but LTU's idenity is ultimately offensive.

We have great prospects as Brazdeikis (IK), Jokubaitis, Rubstavicius, Tubelis, Buzelis, Lelevicius, Murauskas and so on and on (all these guys are either borderline NBA or NBA prospects), but at the moment I don't know a single prospect who would have tremendous defensive upside and would be huge prospect because of his defense alone. We have no elite defensive prospects in other words.

The good news is that we potentially can be ridiculously good offensively soon, specially if Buzelis pans out and comes to represent the country.

[Hepcat]

I see a very serious problem for the future of basketball in Lithuania. And it's not just because of the dramatic population decline. A while ago I mentioned in partial jest that the reason Lithuania's population has been declining is that the men are too busy drinking and watching basketball to bother screwing the women. Well it seems that there was much more than a small grain of truth to my statement:


The World's Biggest Drinkers - The Sun

1. Cook Islands
2. Latvia
3. Czech Republic
4. Lithuania
5. Austria
6. Antigua and Barbados
7. Estonia


That is bad. I mean what's the use of a higher GDP if it's simply going to be spent on drinking more? That type of activity tends to be detrimental to the development of basketball skills and everything else that's worthwhile. Higher "sin" taxes enabling lower income taxes would be a step to solving the problem.

[Straight forward]

You can sense from haircuts Lithuanian new generation will be different






photo hosting sites

[Straight forward]

I'm eager to track the development of Nedas Raupelis very closely. Athletic dude who can guard both inside and perimeter. He is listed as 205cm now and can still add some as he's still 16yo and he's nearly 2007 born (2006 11 15). Very capable shot blocker, get's up quickly from both feet, has dominant second leap, can block perimeter shots and go for dominant blocks inside. Runs the floor well, has some nice driving and even nifty passing skills offensively, so not a black hole at the other end. He showed up nicely in ANGT U18 with Zalgiris while still being barely 16. In U16 he played still as 15yo and was one of the keys in semis and finals. Very worthy guy to track down closely. Truly long term I have him as the best defensive solution (chance) for Lithuania to play good D at 5:

Watched some video to track his defense more closely and I liked what I see. Deflects many many shots, good shot blocker, dynamic rebounder and most importantly seem to have good awaraness. lateral quickness could be a bit better that I would be absolutely ecstatic, but I think he has enough to be a solid defender in perimeter too. Also needs to defend a bit more tightly while chasing guards, but overall very very promising, plenty of room to improve as well as he's super young still. This summer he will play with U18 team as 16yo. I'm pretty sure he'll have some good things delivering even being 2 years younger basically:

https://twitter.com/skweektv/status/1659186273410768897

[Straight forward]

A little joke. If we ever will truly naturalize a player, let's naturalize James Nnaji It would be such a game changer for LT. Imagine Marciulionis, Rubstavicius, Buzelis, Murauskas, Nnaji lineup. OMG, those wingspans and defensive potential as well as plenty of offense too. It would be too good.

[Straight forward]

I have zero concerns about 1-4 positions generally heading to the future, we have all sorts of talent and likely unprecedented depth of elite players coming, but there's obvious lack of one breed - dominant defensive big. We simply don't have this breed and likely we ever had only 2 of that ever - young Arvydas Sabonis and young Javtokas.

Next generation should be amazing, but that true defensive big is still missing and not really in the horizon (unless one player named Nedas). Tubelis should be decent/solid, but lacks a bit better lateral quickness and true rim protection for 5. Krivas has good defensive instincts, but too old school, too slow.

I'm eager to track the development of Nedas Raupelis very closely. Athletic dude who can guard both inside and perimeter. He is listed as 205cm now and can still add some as he's still 16yo and he's nearly 2007 born (2006 11 15). Very capable shot blocker, get's up quickly from both feet, has dominant second leap, can block perimeter shots and go for dominant blocks inside. Runs the floor well, has some nice driving and even nifty passing skills offensively, so not a black hole at the other end. He showed up nicely in ANGT U18 with Zalgiris while still being barely 16. In U16 he played still as 15yo and was one of the keys in semis and finals. Very worthy guy to track down closely. Truly long term I have him as the best defensive solution (chance) for Lithuania to play good D at 5:

https://twitter.com/imLuckyD/status/1561096718367825923

[Straight forward]

Situation is clear, all talented players who have NBA upside are opting for NBA immediately, like Pokuševski and Jović. Vukčević will probably join them soon enough. So, we could have more young players in Euroleague, but NBA is priority to all of them.

Yeah, but the trend is that most of these guys coming from Europe are either forwards or bigs. It's super rarity to find quality Euro guard going to NBA, let alone being drafted high like Doncic or Killian Hayes. Serbia drafts many great forwards, but no guards so far (Lithuania has Jokubaitis and Iggy and Rubstavicius has a very solid chance to be drafted next year 2024).

The lack of guards is real issue with many Euro teams. Many teams lack guards. When we look at 2017 EB it's Dragic and Doncic to claim the title, 2019 Rubio, 2021 Durant, 2022 L. Brown. The tendency is that guards are usually the key, or super versatile forward as Durant, Lebron. I think having good guards are still the key, unless your forwards are filfy skilled.

[Serbian_Layup]

I waited for this insight! Thanks. Indeed, Serbia always tend to come up with good talent and differently than France their prospect have better transition to PROs usually. That can be said about Lithuania too. Most of drafted Lithuanian players (like basically all) leave a mark to the NT.

OK, we can debate whenever 22-23yo are prospects or not. When we take EL, it seems that a lot of 23-24yo still washing the bench and waiting for their chance. I actually ten to think that 24 is that line when a player is matured. To me it still make sense to figure out what happening with U24 or U25 situation in European market. F.e. is recent 2 seasons Lithuania was probably leading in that Section with 3 top 10 EL U25 standouts - Sedekerskis, Jokubaitis, Brazdeikis. Still useful to watch what's prevailing at the very moment in EL. F.e. Serbia didn't yet have a young stud EL guard in recent years.

BTW Andrej Stojaković is another one if he chooses Serbia, right? I think Stojakovic, Topic, Durisic so far seem to be most exposed prospects internationally at the moment, right?

International youth competitions are going from U14 (or even younger) until U20. That tells you about the timeline you can use to define prospects. Just because 23 y.o. is sitting on the bench doesn't mean he is a prospect, but probably that he is not good enough to play more or to play at all. Certainly, there were examples of bad judgements, but overall that is the case.

Stojaković junior will probably choose Greece as he grew up there and has more connections to that side of his family. Situation is clear, all talented players who have NBA upside are opting for NBA immediately, like Pokuševski and Jović. Vukčević will probably join them soon enough. So, we could have more young players in Euroleague, but NBA is priority to all of them. However, with a new wave of Serbian prospects there are a handful of players with a nice Eurolegue upside. I would like to see more young players in Euroleague, there have been so many good players in Euroleague throughout the years even if they didn't play one second in NBA, it didn't bother them to win major trophies in both club and NT competitions.

[Straight forward]

As for Serbia, couple of years ago it seemed we were dry on talents at guard position, but it changes fast. Topić (recently dropped 30 on ABA league upper tier team), Drezgić and Stanković are very talented prospects at 1, then Đurišić, Bošnjaković, Radošić with uber talented Danilović (youngest of the bunch) highlight guard/wing position. I don't think this group of prospects are any less talented than those you mentioned.

I waited for this insight! Thanks. Indeed, Serbia always tend to come up with good talent and differently than France their prospect have better transition to PROs usually. That can be said about Lithuania too. Most of drafted Lithuanian players (like basically all) leave a mark to the NT.

OK, we can debate whenever 22-23yo are prospects or not. When we take EL, it seems that a lot of 23-24yo still washing the bench and waiting for their chance. I actually ten to think that 24 is that line when a player is matured. To me it still make sense to figure out what happening with U24 or U25 situation in European market. F.e. is recent 2 seasons Lithuania was probably leading in that Section with 3 top 10 EL U25 standouts - Sedekerskis, Jokubaitis, Brazdeikis. Still useful to watch what's prevailing at the very moment in EL. F.e. Serbia didn't yet have a young stud EL guard in recent years.

BTW Andrej Stojaković is another one if he chooses Serbia, right? I think Stojakovic, Topic, Durisic so far seem to be most exposed prospects internationally at the moment, right?

[Serbian_Layup]

Name European country who has deeper guard prospect's section than Lithuania:

Jokubaitis, Rubstavicius, Jakucionis, Indrusaitis, Lelevicius, Brazdeikis, Laurencikas, Marciulionis, D. Giedraitis, Stuknys, Velicka (I reluctantly exclude Lukosius)

OK, I'll try. Correct me where I'm wrong:

France:

Hayes, Maledon, Strazel, Gauzin, Illan Pietrus, Killian Malwaya, Illane Fibleuill, Nadir Hifi, Bilal Coulibaly, Fibleuil, Traore

Spain:

Alocen, Nunez, Saint- Supery, Hugo Gonzalez, Caicedo, Willar, De Larrea, Dominguez

I know it's subjective and in such countries as France (or Spain) case you can probably track few more good prospects and add to the list or to cut some off. France BTW has ridiculous amount of quality forwards in terms of prospects.

I will dear to say (unless some-one will prove me wrong) that Serbia, Slovenia, Italy have thinner guard talent pool than Lithuania, France, Spain ATM.

Slovenia probably won't have deepest guard talent pool, but Doncic, Samar, Urban Klavzar are probably enough to claim the most dominant 1 position in Europe.

I don't think that 22+ y.o. players can be called prospects anymore. They are past that timeline. Jokubaitis and Brazdeikis are regular NT players, hard to refer to them as prospects. It's not about quantity but quality. France has a hyper production of talents but it doesn't mean much if they are not able to translate to senior level, such is the case with many of their talents.

As for Serbia, couple of years ago it seemed we were dry on talents at guard position, but it changes fast. Topić (recently dropped 30 on ABA league upper tier team), Drezgić and Stanković are very talented prospects at 1, then Đurišić, Bošnjaković, Radošić, Đulović with uber talented Danilović (youngest of the bunch) highlight guard/wing position. I don't think this group of prospects are any less talented than those you mentioned.

[Straight forward]

It's not only about about the results. Canada didn't win a shit for centuries, but they are ranked what? 4th or 5th best team of WC?

Serbia couldn't win things in 2019, 2021, 2022, but they are stacked to be treated well.

Sure, Lithuania is disappointing now, but at least we went down against France, Australia and Spain when it comes to "knock out stage". And that was very close. So at least that. We can fight with the best teams, we're not far away. To me today easier to say which teams are top 4 top 5. After that it's much harder. My point is that we are in top 8 top 10 or even top 12 mix. It doesn't make much difference now. Those teams are very close to each other, maybe similar in terms of power ranking. That's all. It's not like we badly declined. It's more like we can't reach the level that we used to have. I think most LTU fans have ambitions and wishes to become legitimate top 5 NT globally as we used to be in 1992- 2008 stretch. That should be the goal.

More like you don't learn from history and always making factual mistakes.

Compare Jasikevicius, Kaukenas, Siskauskas, Macijauskas, Salenga, Timinskas, Slanina (1999- 2008) kinda backcourt with Kalnietis, Pocius, Seibutis as serious players (2010-2019).

Talent pool is extremely important. That's the key. In 00's we had deep guard pool. In 10's poor. We know the results...

20's talent pool looks very promising retrospectively.

Broadly speaking, when it comes to very serious prospects, I see France, Lithuania, Spain having deepest guard talent pools for the foreseeable future. That doesn't necessary mean these teams will have the best backcourts necessary, off course. As you said some prospects will choke, won't prevail. But also sometimes you need 2 studs to be great. Maybe Lithuania will have 5-6 very quality guards, but Slovenia will have Doncic and some other guard prodigy, let's say and that's enough to be superior. With that said, having a good amount of truly quality prospects is very very important indication.

Lithuania ATM has Jokubaitis, Brazdeikis (drafted), Rubstavicius, Lelevicius (first likely, second possibly drafted) as fringe NBA material guards. I do think that Jakucionis and Indrusaitis can be in the same situation after few years.

D. Giedraitis, Marciulionis, Laurencikas, Stuknys have EL pedigree. Velicka still an enigma who can reach EL level coming to his prime.

I would say that there's nearly zero chances that 20s backcourt wouldn't prevail 10s backcourt. Even prime Jokubaitis and Brazdeikis alone will most likely comfortably prevail prime Kalnietis/Seibutis.

IMO, the discussion is more like this - will 20s guards prevail 00s guards (Saras, Siska, Macijauskas, Kaukenas)? That's the adequate and spot on question, IMO, for the 20s.

[Shawshank]

NT results of 2017-2022 says No even full team is not top 8 material.

Top 10 teams made top 8 atleast one in last 4 fiba tournaments. LTU made 0 times

Its accident of difficult draws or simply reality that ltu fans dont wanna see ?


How manny top 8 level teams NT beat in last 5 years in real games?



You simply dont learn from history that from top 10 most tallented age group kids maybe 2-3 will become long term NT players.

Other will become just lkl players or dissapear.

So i dont care in theoritical kid tallents counts ,you better count tallents in euroleague/nba players thats real indicator about NTs strenght