The Future of Lithuanian NT

[Serbian_Layup]

I waited for this insight! Thanks. Indeed, Serbia always tend to come up with good talent and differently than France their prospect have better transition to PROs usually. That can be said about Lithuania too. Most of drafted Lithuanian players (like basically all) leave a mark to the NT.

OK, we can debate whenever 22-23yo are prospects or not. When we take EL, it seems that a lot of 23-24yo still washing the bench and waiting for their chance. I actually ten to think that 24 is that line when a player is matured. To me it still make sense to figure out what happening with U24 or U25 situation in European market. F.e. is recent 2 seasons Lithuania was probably leading in that Section with 3 top 10 EL U25 standouts - Sedekerskis, Jokubaitis, Brazdeikis. Still useful to watch what's prevailing at the very moment in EL. F.e. Serbia didn't yet have a young stud EL guard in recent years.

BTW Andrej Stojaković is another one if he chooses Serbia, right? I think Stojakovic, Topic, Durisic so far seem to be most exposed prospects internationally at the moment, right?

International youth competitions are going from U14 (or even younger) until U20. That tells you about the timeline you can use to define prospects. Just because 23 y.o. is sitting on the bench doesn't mean he is a prospect, but probably that he is not good enough to play more or to play at all. Certainly, there were examples of bad judgements, but overall that is the case.

Stojaković junior will probably choose Greece as he grew up there and has more connections to that side of his family. Situation is clear, all talented players who have NBA upside are opting for NBA immediately, like Pokuševski and Jović. Vukčević will probably join them soon enough. So, we could have more young players in Euroleague, but NBA is priority to all of them. However, with a new wave of Serbian prospects there are a handful of players with a nice Eurolegue upside. I would like to see more young players in Euroleague, there have been so many good players in Euroleague throughout the years even if they didn't play one second in NBA, it didn't bother them to win major trophies in both club and NT competitions.

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Situation is clear, all talented players who have NBA upside are opting for NBA immediately, like Pokuševski and Jović. Vukčević will probably join them soon enough. So, we could have more young players in Euroleague, but NBA is priority to all of them.

Yeah, but the trend is that most of these guys coming from Europe are either forwards or bigs. It's super rarity to find quality Euro guard going to NBA, let alone being drafted high like Doncic or Killian Hayes. Serbia drafts many great forwards, but no guards so far (Lithuania has Jokubaitis and Iggy and Rubstavicius has a very solid chance to be drafted next year 2024).

The lack of guards is real issue with many Euro teams. Many teams lack guards. When we look at 2017 EB it's Dragic and Doncic to claim the title, 2019 Rubio, 2021 Durant, 2022 L. Brown. The tendency is that guards are usually the key, or super versatile forward as Durant, Lebron. I think having good guards are still the key, unless your forwards are filfy skilled.

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I have zero concerns about 1-4 positions generally heading to the future, we have all sorts of talent and likely unprecedented depth of elite players coming, but there's obvious lack of one breed - dominant defensive big. We simply don't have this breed and likely we ever had only 2 of that ever - young Arvydas Sabonis and young Javtokas.

Next generation should be amazing, but that true defensive big is still missing and not really in the horizon (unless one player named Nedas). Tubelis should be decent/solid, but lacks a bit better lateral quickness and true rim protection for 5. Krivas has good defensive instincts, but too old school, too slow.

I'm eager to track the development of Nedas Raupelis very closely. Athletic dude who can guard both inside and perimeter. He is listed as 205cm now and can still add some as he's still 16yo and he's nearly 2007 born (2006 11 15). Very capable shot blocker, get's up quickly from both feet, has dominant second leap, can block perimeter shots and go for dominant blocks inside. Runs the floor well, has some nice driving and even nifty passing skills offensively, so not a black hole at the other end. He showed up nicely in ANGT U18 with Zalgiris while still being barely 16. In U16 he played still as 15yo and was one of the keys in semis and finals. Very worthy guy to track down closely. Truly long term I have him as the best defensive solution (chance) for Lithuania to play good D at 5:

https://twitter.com/imLuckyD/status/1561096718367825923

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A little joke. If we ever will truly naturalize a player, let's naturalize James Nnaji It would be such a game changer for LT. Imagine Marciulionis, Rubstavicius, Buzelis, Murauskas, Nnaji lineup. OMG, those wingspans and defensive potential as well as plenty of offense too. It would be too good.

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I'm eager to track the development of Nedas Raupelis very closely. Athletic dude who can guard both inside and perimeter. He is listed as 205cm now and can still add some as he's still 16yo and he's nearly 2007 born (2006 11 15). Very capable shot blocker, get's up quickly from both feet, has dominant second leap, can block perimeter shots and go for dominant blocks inside. Runs the floor well, has some nice driving and even nifty passing skills offensively, so not a black hole at the other end. He showed up nicely in ANGT U18 with Zalgiris while still being barely 16. In U16 he played still as 15yo and was one of the keys in semis and finals. Very worthy guy to track down closely. Truly long term I have him as the best defensive solution (chance) for Lithuania to play good D at 5:

Watched some video to track his defense more closely and I liked what I see. Deflects many many shots, good shot blocker, dynamic rebounder and most importantly seem to have good awaraness. lateral quickness could be a bit better that I would be absolutely ecstatic, but I think he has enough to be a solid defender in perimeter too. Also needs to defend a bit more tightly while chasing guards, but overall very very promising, plenty of room to improve as well as he's super young still. This summer he will play with U18 team as 16yo. I'm pretty sure he'll have some good things delivering even being 2 years younger basically:

https://twitter.com/skweektv/status/1659186273410768897

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You can sense from haircuts Lithuanian new generation will be different






photo hosting sites

[Hepcat]

I see a very serious problem for the future of basketball in Lithuania. And it's not just because of the dramatic population decline. A while ago I mentioned in partial jest that the reason Lithuania's population has been declining is that the men are too busy drinking and watching basketball to bother screwing the women. Well it seems that there was much more than a small grain of truth to my statement:


The World's Biggest Drinkers - The Sun

1. Cook Islands
2. Latvia
3. Czech Republic
4. Lithuania
5. Austria
6. Antigua and Barbados
7. Estonia


That is bad. I mean what's the use of a higher GDP if it's simply going to be spent on drinking more? That type of activity tends to be detrimental to the development of basketball skills and everything else that's worthwhile. Higher "sin" taxes enabling lower income taxes would be a step to solving the problem.

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Here's the deal - LTU basketball has offensive identity. In 90s it was more about offense, in 00s it was more about offense, only in tiny 2013-2015 stretch it was more about the defense. Historically we have offensive identity. Even in 2017 it was all about offense and last 2 tournaments 2019, 2022 as well. We actually were close in those two latter tournaments, but it wasn't enough.

Heading to the future it won't change, IMO. We will remain offensively minded NT. We might be relatively better defensively than in some previous stretches, but only relatively better if any.

Why? FOA, our biggest potential and current stars are offensive players. Sabonis without question and then Buzelis, Jokubaitis also. Buzelis has some defense, even serious like shot blocking, but even he in the space is not elite defender (if he improves he will be solid, but I don't think that elite).

So 3 key players at 1-3-5 which is an ultimate cornerstone in some 2027 if all show up is offensive.

Now postion 2. I take most promising 2 ways SGs in Rubstavicius and Indrusaitis. Yeah, nice upside at both ends, but if you ask whenever they are offensive or defensive players? Surely, still offensive. Brazdeikis and Lelevicius, or say D. Buika (I think that's best 5 SGs in the country) are even more offensively minded.

Potential Buzelis' back-ups at 3 should be Sirvydis, Jogela, maybe Kulboka. All offensive players.

At 4 Murauskas is also offensive player in the first place.

Not to say our defense will be trash necessary, there are a lot of pieces like Marciulionis, D. Giedraitis, Sedekerskis, Krivas, Raupelis and so on who can be good defensive role players, but our key identity will remain offensive and that's how we are. If you look at Greece or France, you often have defensive identity rather than offensive, but LTU's idenity is ultimately offensive.

We have great prospects as Brazdeikis (IK), Jokubaitis, Rubstavicius, Tubelis, Buzelis, Lelevicius, Murauskas and so on and on (all these guys are either borderline NBA or NBA prospects), but at the moment I don't know a single prospect who would have tremendous defensive upside and would be huge prospect because of his defense alone. We have no elite defensive prospects in other words.

The good news is that we potentially can be ridiculously good offensively soon, specially if Buzelis pans out and comes to represent the country.

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they already overachieved this tournament, but it also makes me very excited about the future. if they continue playing this style of basketball in future tournaments it will only get better with players like sabonis, giedraitis, grigonis

I'm not sure I even want to see R. Giedraitis again. Sirvydis showed some nice glimpses of what he can be as a role player. He fits that role better. He always the same. Giedraitis always feels uncomfortable with limited minutes. What we surely can use is Sabonis, Grigonis, Buzekvicius, Ulanovas, Lekavicius. That would be big boost.

We will talk about this in 2024 thread later in detail, but I think 2002 generation guys will also be knocking to the NT doors heavily too. Tubelis got good words after showing up. Probably little doubt that he would take Maldunas' spot next year and play more than Maldunas does. Marciulionis likely might be in the camp finally after hopefully good NCAA season. He potentially will challenge any back-up candidate (still think Lekavicius will go to his likely last tournament with NT though). And Rubstavicius is the most important from all 2002 generation players. It's realistic that after another year (in Australia) he will already be better player than Dimsa, Normantas. I actually expect that cause this season in LKL playoffs he was nearly better than Normantas. He should be drafted in the early second round, or even late first round. In my opinion Rubstavicius is big big piece for LTU going forward. I have him as true starter at position 2. In my opinion he should be better player than Brazdeikis, and I like Iggy.

2000 guys are integrated. Next step is 2002 generation guys.

And with that alone we will be pretty much stacked, yet it's only a scratch. Later 2003 Lelevicius should be in and massive 2004 generation with Buzelis, Murauskas, Krivas and then golden 06-07 with Jakucionis, Indrusaitis and Co.

I'm literally breathless about potential 2027/2028 roster:

Jokubaitis, Marciulionis, Jakucionis
Rubstavicius, Lelevicius, Indrusaitis
Buzelis, Brazdeikis
Murauskas, Sedekerskis
Sabonis, Tubelis

(elite 21yo Buika waiting his turn)

Such players as Sirvydis, Kulboka, M. Jogela, Blazevic, D. Giedraitis, Velicka, Laurencikas, Krivas, I. Sargiunas, Raupelis and some other good prospects (many of them will be EL players) will be boderliners or say pushed aside just because there won't be enough place in the roster. If my projection is correct, NTs boderliners may collect NT that could be more or less on the same tier with regular 10's NT team in terms of talent.