The Future of Lithuanian NT

[Straight forward]

I decided to start this thread to separate (my) usual speculations on the NT future from actualities of ongoing year. To some posters it's a bit misleading, so let's have a separate place where short and long term future speculations can be unleashed.

I figured it out today that the key short term (2023-2025) improvement are 3 pieces:

A. Marciulionis as defensive PG. I already talked about, but I think we missing real defensive PG at 1 who could also facilitate at high level. To some extent I think we will be finishing games with him (assuming he's panning out). Jokubaitis is a clutch player offensively, but we gamble with him defensively. Dimsa is not an answer at 1 offensively. Maybe in 2023 we can gamble in some games, when some Grigonis facilitating offensively, but Dimsa can't do it, and Grigonis also is not good at splitting and braking tough defenses in crunch time. I see defensive bully PG as Marciulionis as very much needed improvement. Then we could unleash current Zalgiris identity and let's say 2013-2015 NT identity. Jokubaitis obviously is the main PG, but having defensive bakcup PG who would be able to facilitate and play solid offense is very much needed piece.

Sedekerskis or Murauskas as defensive/2 ways PF.We lack versatile PFs with good defensive instincts. Let's face it, we don't have this and this hurts a lot. It's time to take 25yo Sedekerskis. We need serious and modern PF. Yeah, Sedekerskis is limited offensively, but he's good off the ball and that fits Domas well. Most importantly he's a good defenders, specially ISO defender. I hope that Murauskas will be ready for 2025 EB. His offensive abilities way exceed Sedekerskis and defensively he can be nearly as good ISO defender as Sedekerskis and even better in terms of team defense (higher IQ).

So till 2025 I see these 3 players as very important and rather realistic improvements.

I excluded Tubelis from mentioning, cause I think he's the best at 5 as an option. And excluded D. Giedraitis cause he can't really be a true answer as a back-up PG. He's undersized 2 and the competition ATM at 2 is very intense with Grigonis, Iggy, R. Giedraitis, besides Rubstavicius is breathing next to him and has much higher upside.

If we ain't locking position 1 with defensive option and not fixing 4 position issues (allowing to liberate Domas as well), we will remain sort of inefficient powerhouse, IMO. Good offensive team, but not good enough to beat the best teams. If we fix 1 and 4, we add much more defense and much more balance between offense and defense, thus having much better chances to win medals.

After 2025 it will be completely new story. I think 2026 is absent year. So in 2027WC we likely will have Jokubaitis, Brazdeikis, Rubstavicius (as elite EL players or even NBA players) and Buzelis, Murauskas, Tubelis (while Sabonis still the best player) as NBA players. Since 2027 I see us as strong and legit contenders.

[Straight forward]

Tomas Purlys says Jakucionis is more of a 2. I don't always trust his positional verdicts and comparisons, but I generally agree on this. He's like combo, and maybe even 2. He's listed as 192cm and may even grow taller. But the thing is that he has long wingspan which allows him to guard much taller opponents and he's a beast in terms of steals.

It's a premature, but likely Jakucionis has the biggest shooting upside from PG (let's say) prospects.

We need more shooting.

I'm losing my belief in Kulboka. He's not as dominant offensive player as I expected him to be and he remains huge liability defensively.

I still hope D. Sirvydis should be a nice shooting wing long term, even if his shooting goes up and down a bit. D. Giedraitis is a solid shooter as role player, 44,1% in LKL, this should eventually translate to EL. R.Jokubaitis is not a shooter per se, but he is on the positive side of that absolutely, as his EL career threes 45.3% and 42,7% combined last season of Zalgiris EL + 2 seasons with Barca both EL/ACB. M. Rubstavicius will be a killer shooter. I think his 39% threes in LKL with solid over 70 shots doesn't even reflect properly on how good he can be. He can be relentless shooter/scorer with multiple attempts and solid %. He has scoring machine's upside. M. Buzelis is all about potential, but being 6'10 with a skillset of step back three, or even fade away three has to be mentioned. He should be able to shoot in almost any situation thanks to his skill and length. P. Murauskas is 8th in LKL with 44%. He unleashed 54 threes, most of them are open catch and shoot, but it's still a statement. As well as his 50% U18 performance in EL Ljubljina. Consistency still in the progress, but he shows some very promising shooting with his super long arms and high releasing point. And off course 2006 generation. All three elite studs have shooting upside - Indrusaitis, Jakucionis, Laurencikas. Laurencikas didn't shoot too many, but 46.7% in U16, some of them off the dribble. Jakucionis exploded in U18 being 16yo and Indrusaitis profile is much like Rubstavicius.

I excluded Lokosius (unknown status) and Lelevicius (improved 3pts shooting, but I don't have sense he's ultimate marksman). Iggy is too wild and inconsistent in terms of shooting. I he will be decent shooter on a constant basis, that will already be good news for him as ultimate slasher/bruiser inside.

No shooting 5 in the horizon. I think our best shot is Tubelis. He's not a shooting big, but may have slightly more shooting than Sabonis has.

1 Jokubaitis, Jakucionis, Laurencikas
2 Rubstavicius, Indrusaitis, D. Giedraitis
3 Buzelis, Sirvydis
4 Murauskas

Kinda hope that Rubstavicius, Indrusaitis, Jakucionis would prevail as true versatile shooters, elite at it (ATM we have only one such piece and that's Grigonis. I think we can call him elite shooter. I won't call R. Giedraitis so, cause he can't do it in the NT).

Shooting remains a concern, cause it's not like I can say that I see upside that can match Saras, Siska, Macijauskas, Stombergas shooting upside (doubt that we will ever be matched for a small country ever again, this should remain unprecedented, and how many teams had better shooting upside than that?), but I see a very strong step forward in terms of shooting compared to 10's.

With that said, I can see tremendous like unprecedented extension of:

- talent pool depth wise.

- skill wise (so many complete players offensively as Jokubaitis, Rubstavicius, Buzelis, Murauskas to mention few, but it extends to guys like Indrusaitis, Jakucionis too)

- defensive upside (Marciulionis, Stuknys, Jakucionis, Laurencikas, D. Giedraitis, Lelevicius, Sedekerskis, Murauskas and likely Krivas can generally be A or A + (Marciulionis, Jakucionis) type of defenders and guys like Rubstavicius, Indrusaitis, Buzelis, Tubelis and likely even Brazdeikis with time as B or B+ defenders).

This decade should be most exceptional in terms of having a lot of ISO gifted players (such as Brazdeikis, Indrusaitis, Buzelis, Murauskas) and having tremendous defensive guards (Marciulionis, D. Giedraitis, Jakucionis, Laurencikas).

90s was about 2 super talents - Arvydas Sabonis and Rooney

00's was about tremendous shooting

10's (first half) was about extreme hustle

20's (second half) should be about ISO skill and perimeter defense

[Straight forward]

I can only say that we are witnessing history. We can clearly see that barely any 22yo guards in EL having a role. If you're not 24yo, basically you can forget about. Now we witnessed two 22yo guys going at each other. They played serious minutes in EL playoffs and played well. And then there's 24yo Iggy balling. Lithuania has a chance to have historically deep and quality guard line.

Jokubaitis, Iggy, D. Giedraitis are all EL material already being young guns. That's history.

Very soon Rubstavicius, Lelelvicius, Marciulionis (and likely Lukosius if he will wake up) will be knocking on EL doors too. Even later 2005 stud Stuknys may emerge and 2006 golden generations studs will ripe.

I can only laugh (friendly) at Shaws projection that after Kalnietis and Seibutis Lithuania's backcourt will even more decline...We already have better backcourt and that's barely a scratch yet...I was repeating a lot that's not logical to expect that such country as Lithuania wouldn't provide talent for more than 2 decades. Upcoming talent may even exceed my expectations. If all the studs will pan out, some very good and very solid EL guards won't have a place in the NT at the end of this decade.

[Straight forward]

Jokubaitis 10,7ppg, 3.3aspg, 2,7rpg and 14,7eff in 19mpg.

Brazdeikis 13,7ppg, 10eff in 23mpg.

Those two guys basically are our key perimeter today. Also Grigonis if healthy. But he's not entirely healthy.

The bad news is Iggy also has some doubts regarding NT. He had super busy campaign ever since he hot to Lithuania, all summer was busy, all season was busy, but I hope he just needs a month to rest and his mind will be ready for action again.

It's pretty clear we have rebuild as fast as possible. If NT will collapse completely, Maksvytis instead of mediocre scrubs has to invite more young players who would be pillars of NT in upcoming generation. The sooner we will prepare such guys as Rubstavicius, Marciulionis, D. Giedraitis, Sirvydis (specially perimeter players are important), the sooner we will be less dependable on very shaky current core. Current core is unreliable - Grigonis, except 22 EB, always semi-injured in NT, Ulanovas is also semi injured and not motivated, Lekavicius missed 2017 and now questionable and it's not getting any better with them getting older. We need to extend our NT talent pool. Hopefully we can get absolutely optimal roster for 2024 Olympic qualification, but it's obvious current prime guys are nor reliable and we already have to start building new enforcements. The sooner we extend our talent pool, the sooner we'll be more flexible roster wise. Luckily we have enough talent in crease our pallet of players. 23 WC might hurt, but in 2-4 years we should solve all the problems basically, specially if we will be pro active and invest in some players during WC 23 if key players will collapse and won't show up.

Jokubaitis is the best example. When 20yo was taken to OGQ in Kaunas he was good and delivered. When 21yo played in EB he was even better. Now as 22yo he's ready to be the key guy of our backcourt. This is an amazing example. We can imitate that with guys like Rubstavicius, Jakucionis, Indusaitis (those are nearly as talented as Jokubaitis). Take them as 20-21yo to the NT, give them some playing time and you'll see benefits. Rubstavicius debut in FIBA windows was very positive. If the team collapsing Rubstavicius is a must. He's a big puzzle of our perimeter in nearest future. It's good that Kemzura likes him, I'm sure Maksvytis is monitoring his situation closely too as Zalgiris coach, so they shouldn't overlook him if there's a room.

To me the rebuild starts with making Jokubaitis, Brazdeikis, Rubstavicius main pillars of our bakccourt. All three are super talented, 2 already one of the keys, and Rubstavicius is getting close NT. When these 3 will be ready (Rubstavicius should be ready for 2025 and even 2024 should be in conversation), we will have a really solid backcourt core. Players as Marciulionis (back up PG), and D. Giedraitis (role combo) should be very solid and talented role guards. As well as Sirvydis being very nice role forward, shooter.

In the frontline we have to integrate Tubelis at 5 as out best running center and most flexible defensive center we have and Sedekerskis at 4.

That's the realistic first and very strong step of rebuilding.

Later things should get even better with 2004 studs as Buzelis, Murauskas emerging, but we should concentrate on the adding pieces that are close first. Rubstavicius should be pushed, IMO. That would give fast and instant benefits, just as in cases with Jokubaitis, Brazdeikis. Obviously we can't rely and shaky Grigonis going forward.

[Straight forward]

Padegimas seems to be underrated and a bit overlooked prospect I think. He can be better version of Kuzminskas. He has the same skillset offensively basically, but is tougher than Kuz. And most importantly he's way better defensively. He's one of these guys who should be able to guard 2-4 positions. Will be very interesting to see how much he will dominate in U18 this summer. To me he seems like a super role player kinda breed (some-one once called prime Kuz this way as well), but you can even try to make him a key player for certain teams.

I like that LTU about to have players who can guard multiple positions like Marciulionis, Jakucionis, Sedekerskis, Indrusaitis, Rubstavicius, Lelevicius, Murauskas, Buzelis, Tubelis and even Brazdeikis (ISO defence) when he's in the mood.

That defensive presence should be a game changer. Today when you have only Jokubaitis, Lekavicius Grigonis (who barely plays D when he's the main guy offensively), R. Giedraitis, Kuzminskas, Valanciunas, Brazdeikis, Sabonis. Let's agree, that's horrific defensive line-up

This will change soon.

[Dreamcatcher]

Padegimas seems to be underrated and a bit overlooked prospect I think. He can be better version of Kuzminskas. He has the same skillset offensively basically, but is tougher than Kuz. And most importantly he's way better defensively. Will be very interesting to see how much he will dominate in U18 this summer.

Why would he dominate at all? He averaged 10 pts and 11 eff last summer. Not so much impressive. He went to USA and i didin't see and hear anything about him last season though.
I have an impression you overrate a Lith talent now like you tend to do. As far as i remember, smth similar you wrote about Kancleris who went to USA as well and after that i haven't heard anything about him. He like disappeared.

[Straight forward]

Why would he dominate at all? He averaged 10 pts and 11 eff last summer. Not so much impressive. He went to USA and i didin't see and hear anything about him last season though.
I have an impression you overrate a Lith talent now like you tend to do. As far as i remember, smth similar you wrote about Kancleris who went to USA as well and after that i haven't heard anything about him. He like disappeared.

Maybe dominate is not exactly right word, more like I'm curious how much impact he will make. Padegimas had a terrific year in America. 14,2ppg, 5.3rbs, 39% threes. He looks bigger, stronger and more explosive compared to to summer. Off course, we should wait and see, but seems he has pretty nice mobility, flexibility, his driving became more complex, not only straight line mainly as we seen in summer. Due to size, athleticism, skill, quick legs he has very nice upside. I expect a leap in U18. At least in terms of quality. The team will most likely be stacked if 2006 guys will join, so not necessary he will be putting huge numbers, but I see very serious prospect in Padegimas:

https://twitter.com/CBB_Europe/status/1613611904638787584

Modestas Kancleris indeed is a strange case. His NKL career went up and down. This season he showed some nice strides though. Very capable defender. Has something like 6ppg, 6rpg, 1apg, 1.1bpg in 19 minutes. His development obviously has been disappointing, at some points he was attracting NBA attention, but he can still be very solid LKL player, maybe Eurocup's material. Lacking offensive profile though.

https://twitter.com/CBB_Europe/status/1595386681229729792

[Straight forward]

Lithuania will likely have best lefty team in the world, IMO:

Jokubaitis, Stuknys
Rubstavicius, Brazdeikis
Sirvydis
Tubelis
Sabonis

I think only USA can beat that with Fox + Williams (latter won't ever play most likely anyway)+ Russel+ Randle. But how many chance to see them playing together? Nearly zero probably.

And that beats (will) Canada's SGA + Barret, IMO.

Interesting ranking of left handed players in some cases. I mean some are naturally left handed, but shoots with right. Like SGA, Lebron. I think Marciulionis may qualify as such if I'm not mistaken:

https://blogging.org/left-handed-nba-players/

[Shawshank]

its sounds like searching for moral compensation with lefty nonsense when our NT objectively fallen from top 10 NT list

Who cares what kinda lefties we have if they gonna lose to best world righties?

[Straight forward]

its sounds like searching for moral compensation with lefty nonsense when our NT objectively fallen from top 10 NT list

Who cares what kinda lefties we have if they gonna lose to best world righties?

Lithuania is still top 8 team if fully packed. But it's just now. We have one of the deepest prospect's pools globally. We'll have a shot to become top 4 again globally this decade. USA (they permanently no.1) and Canada aside (never shows dedication), it's France, Serbia, Lithuania, Spain and maybe Australia with the best talent.

To me it's interesting fact alone that we have so many good lefties. It's very rare.

[Straight forward]

Name European country who has deeper guard prospect's section than Lithuania:

Jokubaitis, Rubstavicius, Jakucionis, Indrusaitis, Lelevicius, Brazdeikis, Laurencikas, Marciulionis, D. Giedraitis, Stuknys, Velicka (I reluctantly exclude Lukosius)

OK, I'll try. Correct me where I'm wrong:

France:

Hayes, Maledon, Strazel, Gauzin, Illan Pietrus, Killian Malwaya, Illane Fibleuill, Nadir Hifi, Bilal Coulibaly, Fibleuil, Traore

Spain:

Alocen, Nunez, Saint- Supery, Hugo Gonzalez, Caicedo, Willar, De Larrea, Dominguez

I know it's subjective and in such countries as France (or Spain) case you can probably track few more good prospects and add to the list or to cut some off. France BTW has ridiculous amount of quality forwards in terms of prospects.

I will dear to say (unless some-one will prove me wrong) that Serbia, Slovenia, Italy have thinner guard talent pool than Lithuania, France, Spain ATM.

Slovenia probably won't have deepest guard talent pool, but Doncic, Samar, Urban Klavzar are probably enough to claim the most dominant 1 position in Europe.

[Shawshank]

NT results of 2017-2022 says No even full team is not top 8 material.

Top 10 teams made top 8 atleast one in last 4 fiba tournaments. LTU made 0 times

Its accident of difficult draws or simply reality that ltu fans dont wanna see ?


How manny top 8 level teams NT beat in last 5 years in real games?



You simply dont learn from history that from top 10 most tallented age group kids maybe 2-3 will become long term NT players.

Other will become just lkl players or dissapear.

So i dont care in theoritical kid tallents counts ,you better count tallents in euroleague/nba players thats real indicator about NTs strenght

[Straight forward]

It's not only about about the results. Canada didn't win a shit for centuries, but they are ranked what? 4th or 5th best team of WC?

Serbia couldn't win things in 2019, 2021, 2022, but they are stacked to be treated well.

Sure, Lithuania is disappointing now, but at least we went down against France, Australia and Spain when it comes to "knock out stage". And that was very close. So at least that. We can fight with the best teams, we're not far away. To me today easier to say which teams are top 4 top 5. After that it's much harder. My point is that we are in top 8 top 10 or even top 12 mix. It doesn't make much difference now. Those teams are very close to each other, maybe similar in terms of power ranking. That's all. It's not like we badly declined. It's more like we can't reach the level that we used to have. I think most LTU fans have ambitions and wishes to become legitimate top 5 NT globally as we used to be in 1992- 2008 stretch. That should be the goal.

More like you don't learn from history and always making factual mistakes.

Compare Jasikevicius, Kaukenas, Siskauskas, Macijauskas, Salenga, Timinskas, Slanina (1999- 2008) kinda backcourt with Kalnietis, Pocius, Seibutis as serious players (2010-2019).

Talent pool is extremely important. That's the key. In 00's we had deep guard pool. In 10's poor. We know the results...

20's talent pool looks very promising retrospectively.

Broadly speaking, when it comes to very serious prospects, I see France, Lithuania, Spain having deepest guard talent pools for the foreseeable future. That doesn't necessary mean these teams will have the best backcourts necessary, off course. As you said some prospects will choke, won't prevail. But also sometimes you need 2 studs to be great. Maybe Lithuania will have 5-6 very quality guards, but Slovenia will have Doncic and some other guard prodigy, let's say and that's enough to be superior. With that said, having a good amount of truly quality prospects is very very important indication.

Lithuania ATM has Jokubaitis, Brazdeikis (drafted), Rubstavicius, Lelevicius (first likely, second possibly drafted) as fringe NBA material guards. I do think that Jakucionis and Indrusaitis can be in the same situation after few years.

D. Giedraitis, Marciulionis, Laurencikas, Stuknys have EL pedigree. Velicka still an enigma who can reach EL level coming to his prime.

I would say that there's nearly zero chances that 20s backcourt wouldn't prevail 10s backcourt. Even prime Jokubaitis and Brazdeikis alone will most likely comfortably prevail prime Kalnietis/Seibutis.

IMO, the discussion is more like this - will 20s guards prevail 00s guards (Saras, Siska, Macijauskas, Kaukenas)? That's the adequate and spot on question, IMO, for the 20s.

[Serbian_Layup]

Name European country who has deeper guard prospect's section than Lithuania:

Jokubaitis, Rubstavicius, Jakucionis, Indrusaitis, Lelevicius, Brazdeikis, Laurencikas, Marciulionis, D. Giedraitis, Stuknys, Velicka (I reluctantly exclude Lukosius)

OK, I'll try. Correct me where I'm wrong:

France:

Hayes, Maledon, Strazel, Gauzin, Illan Pietrus, Killian Malwaya, Illane Fibleuill, Nadir Hifi, Bilal Coulibaly, Fibleuil, Traore

Spain:

Alocen, Nunez, Saint- Supery, Hugo Gonzalez, Caicedo, Willar, De Larrea, Dominguez

I know it's subjective and in such countries as France (or Spain) case you can probably track few more good prospects and add to the list or to cut some off. France BTW has ridiculous amount of quality forwards in terms of prospects.

I will dear to say (unless some-one will prove me wrong) that Serbia, Slovenia, Italy have thinner guard talent pool than Lithuania, France, Spain ATM.

Slovenia probably won't have deepest guard talent pool, but Doncic, Samar, Urban Klavzar are probably enough to claim the most dominant 1 position in Europe.

I don't think that 22+ y.o. players can be called prospects anymore. They are past that timeline. Jokubaitis and Brazdeikis are regular NT players, hard to refer to them as prospects. It's not about quantity but quality. France has a hyper production of talents but it doesn't mean much if they are not able to translate to senior level, such is the case with many of their talents.

As for Serbia, couple of years ago it seemed we were dry on talents at guard position, but it changes fast. Topić (recently dropped 30 on ABA league upper tier team), Drezgić and Stanković are very talented prospects at 1, then Đurišić, Bošnjaković, Radošić, Đulović with uber talented Danilović (youngest of the bunch) highlight guard/wing position. I don't think this group of prospects are any less talented than those you mentioned.

[Straight forward]

As for Serbia, couple of years ago it seemed we were dry on talents at guard position, but it changes fast. Topić (recently dropped 30 on ABA league upper tier team), Drezgić and Stanković are very talented prospects at 1, then Đurišić, Bošnjaković, Radošić with uber talented Danilović (youngest of the bunch) highlight guard/wing position. I don't think this group of prospects are any less talented than those you mentioned.

I waited for this insight! Thanks. Indeed, Serbia always tend to come up with good talent and differently than France their prospect have better transition to PROs usually. That can be said about Lithuania too. Most of drafted Lithuanian players (like basically all) leave a mark to the NT.

OK, we can debate whenever 22-23yo are prospects or not. When we take EL, it seems that a lot of 23-24yo still washing the bench and waiting for their chance. I actually ten to think that 24 is that line when a player is matured. To me it still make sense to figure out what happening with U24 or U25 situation in European market. F.e. is recent 2 seasons Lithuania was probably leading in that Section with 3 top 10 EL U25 standouts - Sedekerskis, Jokubaitis, Brazdeikis. Still useful to watch what's prevailing at the very moment in EL. F.e. Serbia didn't yet have a young stud EL guard in recent years.

BTW Andrej Stojaković is another one if he chooses Serbia, right? I think Stojakovic, Topic, Durisic so far seem to be most exposed prospects internationally at the moment, right?