2023 Lithuanian NT

[Straight forward]

Raping and killing Russia banned from Olympics! Finally FIBA doesn't suck balls which is rarity! Now it's a morally clean tournament as Olympics should be and it would be nice to actually make a huge swing and grab the direct ticket to Olympics. Unlikely, but why not to dream Nevertheless, Lithuania should be pretty tough cooky in 2024 qualification with much improved Jokubaitis, Brazdeikis and likely the best version of Sabonis. So we will have much better chances to qualify in 2024 than we did in 2021.

Would be nice to begin new streak with 2024 Olympics. I have a little doubt we will be contending big time in 2028 and 2032.

[Straight forward]

OK, so it's time to conclude we finally got a decent draw. Our group won't be all that scary. The only opponent which may be superior than us is Canada, but even apriori I wouldn't call Canada favorite against Lithuania. Yes, they can bring superior roster on the paper, no question, but they are centuries behind in terms of team culture, chemistry and overall doesn't have any identity yet as a team. So with stacked Canada it would be more or less 50:50 kinda game, with less than stacked Canada we would probably lean for a win. All other teams (from 4, 6, 8) are inferior on the paper. Yes, Latvia can be dangerous, but I hope we won't get both Canada and Latvia. I believe draw gods should be slightly favorable for us this time.

So it seems like we're in position, and it's a must!, to snatch all 3 wins in the group and move to the second round with maximum points. This will give us better chances in the second round.

[Giannis34GOD]

OK, so it's time to conclude we finally got a decent draw. Our group won't be all that scary. The only opponent which may be superior than us is Canada, but even apriori I wouldn't call Canada favorite against Lithuania. Yes, they can bring superior roster on the paper, no question, but they are centuries behind in terms of team culture, chemistry and overall doesn't have any identity yet as a team. So with stacked Canada it would be more or less 50:50 kinda game, with less than stacked Canada we would probably lean for a win. All other teams (from 4, 6, 8) are inferior on the paper. Yes, Latvia can be dangerous, but I hope we won't get both Canada and Latvia. I believe draw gods should be slightly favorable for us this time.

So it seems like we're in position, and it's a must!, to snatch all 3 wins in the group and move to the second round with maximum points. This will give us better chances in the second round.

It seems POT 2 teams have better chance than POT 1... POT 1 teams will have to face very tough POT 3 (Greece, Italy, Brazil and Germany) teams and POT 5 are better teams than POT 6... Finland w/ Markannen and DR w/ KAT are tough teams too.... POT 4 teams are consist of Canada, Puerto Rico, Venezuela and Montenegro, In terms of strength, Only Canada is tough in POT 4..... While all of POT 3 teams are tough costumers....

[Straight forward]

It seems POT 2 teams have better chance than POT 1... POT 1 teams will have to face very tough POT 3 (Greece, Italy, Brazil and Germany) teams and POT 5 are better teams than POT 6... Finland w/ Markannen and DR w/ KAT are tough teams too.... POT 4 teams are consist of Canada, Puerto Rico, Venezuela and Montenegro, In terms of strength, Only Canada is tough in POT 4..... While all of POT 3 teams are tough costumers....

True. First round is important as next round will be really competitive. Some really good teams are not gonna make it to 4finals. In 2019 it was Greece, Lithuania, Italy, Germany, Canada, Turkey. For Lithuania it's a must to grab all 3 wins and to have solid positions in the second round.

[Shawshank]

In this system good draw is not about first group is way more about second joined group when we judge is draw is favourable or not


LTU can get weakest possible opponents in first group but if that group joins group with Pot 1team + Greece/Germany type team pot 3 this is bad draw and so on.

team can sweep first group 3-0,lose 2 close games againts other top 8 teams from way stronger group and bye bye not even get chance to play in playoofs


I dislike this system. It was way better with 1/16 stage games

[Giannis34GOD]

True. First round is important as next round will be really competitive. Some really good teams are not gonna make it to 4finals. In 2019 it was Greece, Lithuania, Italy, Germany, Canada, Turkey. For Lithuania it's a must to grab all 3 wins and to have solid positions in the second round.

Best possible group for Lithuania:

Lithuania
Venezuela
China
Egypt

I see Venezuela as the weakest team in POT 4, while China in POT 6 and Egypt in POT 8... If that is the case, easy 3-0 for Lithuania


Worst possible group for Lithuania:

Lithuania
Canada
Latvia
SSD

Canada is the best team in POT 4, Latvia in POT 6 and SSD in POT 8 (They are long, athletic and very tough match up for Lithuanians, especially if Gabriel of Lakers and Bol Bol of Magic commits to them) They can still 3-0 in this tough group but worst case scenario they will be out in 1st round, especially if Lithuanians will have a bad luck in their offense, especially against talented Canadians and Latvians (even against Sudanese team)....

[Straight forward]

LTU can get weakest possible opponents in first group but if that group joins group with Pot 1team + Greece/Germany type team pot 3 this is bad draw and so on.

team can sweep first group 3-0,lose 2 close games againts other top 8 teams from way stronger group and bye bye not even get chance to play in playoofs

The results of 1 round will carry over to 2 round. There will be 4 groups with 4 teams in each. So if Lithuania comes in with 3 wins, even losing 2 games in the second round may mean that we are second best team in the group and advance to 4finals. It's very important to grab those points in the first stage. In that perspective we are getting either good, or super good group in the case Canada and Latvia slips.

There was no single successful tournament when we didn't need to take down some-one big before playoffs. I mean in the second round there should be some GOOD teams. It's inevitable.

[Straight forward]

Best possible group for Lithuania:

Lithuania
Venezuela
China
Egypt

I see Venezuela as the weakest team in POT 4, while China in POT 6 and Egypt in POT 8... If that is the case, easy 3-0 for Lithuania


Worst possible group for Lithuania:

Lithuania
Canada
Latvia
SSD

Canada is the best team in POT 4, Latvia in POT 6 and SSD in POT 8 (They are long, athletic and very tough match up for Lithuanians, especially if Gabriel of Lakers and Bol Bol of Magic commits to them) They can still 3-0 in this tough group but worst case scenario they will be out in 1st round, especially if Lithuanians will have a bad luck in their offense, especially against talented Canadians and Latvians (even against Sudanese team)....

Yeah. I agree with everything more or less. Even though the same Georgia (6 pot) is more or less on the same tier with Latvia (I feel Latvia ATM slightly overrated since they have no guards almost literally, no solid decent/solid EL players). Also from 4 pot Montenegro shouldn't be underestimated or even Puerto RIco (less familiar with their current players though).

All in all, I would claim that only Canada is true match for fully packed Lithuania. If they pack their best guards, they can win it on individual talent alone. But I think it's unlikely knowing Canada. They will always have absences. That's their BB school and culture. So Lithuania's advantages are obvious in terms of experience, coherence, team culture. Latvia lacks guards and physicality at the backcourt, and even position 3 is thinner than Lithuania's. In the frontline Latvia has Porzingis, Bertans, Smits. That's very nice modern frontline, one of the best in the tournament, but then again Lithuania has pretty decent frontcourt as well.

In 2019 we were going against fully packed Australia and France to survive in the group stage. Now we have a good starting path and we should utilize this with 3 important wins.

[Giannis34GOD]

Yeah. I agree with everything more or less. Even though the same Georgia (6 pot) is more or less on the same tier with Latvia (I feel Latvia ATM slightly overrated since they have no guards almost literally, no solid decent/solid EL players). Also from 4 pot Montenegro shouldn't be underestimated or even Puerto RIco (less familiar with their current players though).

All in all, I would claim that only Canada is true match for fully packed Lithuania. If they pack their best guards, they can win it on individual talent alone. But I think it's unlikely knowing Canada. They will always have absences. That's their BB school and culture. So Lithuania's advantages are obvious in terms of experience, coherence, team culture. Latvia lacks guards and physicality at the backcourt, and even position 3 is thinner than Lithuania's. In the frontline Latvia has Porzingis, Bertans, Smits. That's very nice modern frontline, one of the best in the tournament, but then again Lithuania has pretty decent frontcourt as well.

In 2019 we were going against fully packed Australia and France to survive in the group stage. Now we have a good starting path and we should utilize this with 3 important wins.

But who among Lithuanian guards can match Murray - SGA duo? plus Brooks, and some role players like Powell, Olynk or Walker (from Twolves)? And i think Canada learned their lesson and they will go away their "American style" of preparation for International competitions, w/ Argentina are out in this summer's event, They are motivated to take that another spot from Americas for direct spot at 2024 Olympics....

[Straight forward]

But who among Lithuanian guards can match Murray - SGA duo? plus Brooks, and some role players like Powell, Olynk or Walker (from Twolves)? And i think Canada learned their lesson and they will go away their "American style" of preparation for International competitions, w/ Argentina are out in this summer's event, They are motivated to take that another spot from Americas for direct spot at 2024 Olympics....

Well, it doesn't work like that with Canada. In 2021 OQ Canada also had Wiggins, Barrert,Alexander- Walker, but more fluid and team orientated Czech Rep. beat Canada. And Czech Rep. is not on Lithuania's level, specially when we speak about 2023 Lithuania which is growing team. I'm not saying Lithuania can surely match fully packed Canada. I'm saying that their holistic unity is less than the sum of their individuals, while Lithuania may be the greatest example in the world (or at least in many tournaments was) of vice versa. If Canada has absolutely packed roster I will treat them favorites, if not then Lithuania. Canada will have the same problems as previously. Their stars never played together basically and they don't even know how Canada NT usually play. They have no identity.

[Shawshank]

In 2019 LTU finished 3-2 and lost 2 close games and went home. Sweeping 3-0 doesnt give guarantee of nothing if your group is joining group with 2 other elite teams


This system makes such draws possible. It can even happen 4 teams from top 10 will be in second joined group.



in 2019 one 2nd group looked like Aus/Fra/LTU/Can and other group looked Rus/Arg/Chi/Pol

This system brings too much inbalance and draw plays bigger part than normally


NT can play well top 8 basketball level sweep 3-0 first group but get 2 semifinal teams in 2nd group and is f***ed cant even get to 1/4 playoofs game

Thats why think in this system favourable draw or not is more about 2nd group

[Straight forward]

FOA, who are top 8 teams today? Is current Argentina (or even Lithuania, Slovenia) better than Greece, Italy, Germany, Canada, Turkey? It's really really complex. Latvia stand 29th in FIBA ranking...Croatia 25. Everything is very open in FIBA these days and super competitive.

Another thing, you can't expect that you will get to the 4finals (specially today when FIBA tournaments becoming incredibly equal and unpredictable) without beating a single strong team. So let's assume France, Germany, or say Serbia, Australia ends up in our group in the second round. So what? Beat at least one of these teams. Lithuania eventually has to beat some kind of relevant team for once if we want to succeed something It's not the goal to get to the playoffs in the cheapest way. You have to move some good teams out of your way if you want to be among top 8 teams.

It's getting funny and sad at the same time that the last time we beat a really good team (I claim, elite team) was 2016 when we beat Argentina in the group stage. That team had Manu Ginobili, Scola, Nacioni, Delfino, Campazzo, Laprovittola. It's the last time when we beat a hell of a team.

And since then we can't do it. We lost to Spain, Croatia (basically elite in 2016), Australia, Greece, France, Australia, Slovenia, Slovenia, France, Germany, Spain.

We have to beat a darmn relevant team for once. We can't do it for six years now...

[Shawshank]

for me is simple

7 teams from first 2 pots + Canada,Greece is elite teams that any games with them is 50/50 (best case scenerio)


2 round groups that will get 3 teams from those 9 this is bad ,unlucky draw and one really good team going home early


2 round group that will get 2 teams from top 9 = good draw


In order to make 1/4 game in most champs LTU didnt need to beat semifinal team.

It was enough to beat Chech,Turkey,Brasil level team to make 1/4 game not Aus/Fra/Spain powerhouse just to make 1/4 game


In 1/4 sure elite team should be opponent,but when we get elite powerhouse opponent already in 1/8 stage this is bad draw

[Straight forward]

No it's that simple. For example Germany is more stacked today than Slovenia, Lithuania and they are only in third seed. The thing is that there's no obvious hierarchy in FIBA today. Even super stacked Serbia has been struggling for a long time. What's better - Serbia or Italy? Your idea that someone from "top 8" teams will be obvious victim of the draw is not legitimate. It's not clear who ar top 8 teams. Eurobasket showed it clearly that teams who seemed super powers before the tournament managed to provide plenty of "surprises". I can only remind you that Poland beat Slovenia, Italy beat Serbia and so on. In 2019 USA failed big time. It's much more complex than you put it. The thing is you have to win some shit of you deserve to be in 4 finals. If you go down against all good teams all the time, there's no point to even show up in 4finals. In 2019 we were unlucky not because we got France and Australia in the group, but because we couldn't close the games. If you can't beat a good team in the group stage, you won't do it in the playoffs.

[Shawshank]

By shown level in 2020s basketball Lithuania place is being 1/4 game team in underdogs role.


But in order to achieve that ltu nt need fair draw with Italy,Poland,Croatia type teams in our road not always semifinal powerhouse teams



in 2019,2021,2022 we failed to make single 1/4 game and we didnt lose a single game to obviuosly weaker opponent .All of those defeats were againts objectively at minimum not worse teams in last minute tough fought games


All i want fair chance to make 1/4 game not again death group with semifinal team as opponents in 1/8 stage



Thats middle level teams is stronger now that they ever was i agree.But draws of recent years dont even give us chance to play them !



Its always Doncic,France,Spain,Australia and repeat again next year


Italy,Serbia looks like very good draw compare to those 4 teams