2023 Lithuanian NT

[Straight forward]

Luka has his nights off too. Against Poland he sucked. 5/15 shooting, 6 TOs, fouled out. Poland played good D though. In FIBA it's easier to hack Luka than in NBA. In that semi game refs allowed tons of contact and Luka/Dragic were not getting calls after contact, threes didn't fall. Boom, Slovenia out.

We however playing with JV have zero chances against Slovenia and overall to win medals. If JV is not limited to role player we don't stand a chance. We never will get a needed grip defensively with JV playing heavy minutes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7pb-5XQU-BM&ab_channel=BBALLBREAKDOWN

[Straight forward]

I re-watched SLO-LTU game.

First quarter no defence at both ends. Slovenia hitting tough and open threes. Lekavicius delivers 9pts. High scoring quarter 27-27

Second quarter both Sabonis and JV struggles, turns the ball over, gets rejected and so on. Really bad defence of ours. Slovenia lucky with bank shot three. Mainly they attack JV, but generally nothing really working. Butkevicius tries, but just as in Kaunas he can't do much against Doncic. LTU keeps turn the ball over offensively, offense kinda stagnant, we trailing. At the end couple of stops, Kuz and Grigonis lift us offensively. We almost tie it.

Third. Grigonis keeps carrying the team. LTU defence good at the start, we're up 51:53. Then Slovenia starting to attack JV and it pays off. Iggy gets schooled by Doncic in the post couple of times, and scores himself offensively. Our bigs struggle to score and carry the team. Kuz carrying the team offensively. Tie game 67:67. JV again plays drop D and Dragic nails open three of the p'n'r.

Forth. Iggy, Lukas, Kuz make buckets early, Lithuania leads 71:74. We can't stop Slovenia defensively, great ball movement, too good in p'n'r situations. Domas scores inside - biggest lead 73:78. Then Luka's clinics, JV suffering, Tobey thriving. Grigonis misses couple of completely open threes. Dragic hits big three, LTU guards late to come back of the help D.Iggy gets blocked, Sabonis elbows Doncic and gets tech foul. Doncic hits FTS, Slovenia gets another offensive rebound. Grigonis misses another three. Game's over.

To sup up:

I think Slovenia shows A+ level physicality against Lithuania. They really were super active defensively, really hustled. I did see dead Slovenia in some games, but against Lithuania they fight as hell and they shoot threes decently. Later in the competition they would shoot 31.2% and go down against Bosnia, but not in the opening against Lithuania. JV/Domas couldn't establish domination. Very bleak game by both. Plenty of bad things both offensively and defensively. The team was carried by Kuz, Grigonis mainly and Lekavicius, It looked good when Grigonis was carrying the team offensively, but he completely disappeared in the crunch time - he missed three open threes in the second half of 4th quarter. The thing is that he's not a clutch player.

I think current NT is a bit out of identity. Just feeding bigs for post up possessions is primitive and won't bring wins and we lack clutch guards who can make things done. So we have no identity. Pretty much the same happened against Spain. JV sucked, Domas was so so, but not a carrier, Lekavicius, Kuzmisnkas, Brazdeikis, Jokubaitis had a good game, but neither of them could carry the team down the stretch.

Lithuania always have a bad timing playing Slovenia. When they are most concentrated and most fresh.

We need a growth Jokubaitis and Brazdeikis. These 2 should be with the ball down the stretch if you ask me. The identity crisis will end when Jokubaitis will be ready to take matters into his own hand. Grigonis can't do it. This Olympic cycle is about the question - will Jokubaitis (and Brazdeikis to a lesser extent) be ready? And it's more like no than yes. That's why we are in between kinda team ATM. Sort of good, but lacking the identity. We never won a single big game with JV/Domas braking the boards - the losses against Australia, France, Slovenia, Slovenia, France, Germany, Spain. 7 losses against elite teams. Close losses, but losses nevertheless. We will win only when there will be capable perimeter player to close games. No-one else can brake out this Olympic Cycle other than Jokubaitis/Iggy.

[Shawshank]

3 diffrent head coaches wouldnt have fed bigs so much if our guards would be good enough.


Its not indentity problem its lack of individual tallent on perimeter.


All Nts we lost in 2019-2022 simply had better guards that delivered in 4 querters and our guards played hot potato in last 5 minutes in all of those looses.

Grigonis had 2 wide open looks versus Slovenia in last 5minutes, Butkevicius had wide open look to win versus Germany, Jokubaitis had open shot versus Spain to win.

Game plan,indentity,our centers,coaches is to blame for missing all those game deciding shots?



In 2021 our game plan was wrong,we had no chance in 2021 Slovenia game.

In 2019 and 2022 that wasnt the case.

I wont blame centers or game plan or indentity if our guards is missing way better shots compared to our opponents guards makes in 4 querters

Jasikevicius,Macijauskas,Kleiza,Maciulis could make those critical shots and Nt was on podium and 2020s players cant and NT have one heartbreak after another.

[Toruko]

Its not indentity problem its lack of individual tallent on perimeter.

This!

[Straight forward]

That's the same point. We lack identity because of the talent that we have now (I don't even disagree that we lack individual talent at backcourt). The pieces that we have today create certain identity crisis cause we can't build what we want to build and it's not only about results. Playing hot potato is actually a good definition of current NT. It's all very very strained, very complicated, the ball doesn't move as it should. We hustle, we try hard, we pound the ball inside, but the game is stressed, strained, complicated. We only look better when we push to transition, it looks more natural. In other words, we have elite bigs, but in FIBA you can't build around post scoring as your main weapon, we have average/solid forwards/wings who sort of trying to carry the team, but they are not exactly this material (Grigonis, Iggy, Kuz) and we have raw point guards (Rokas, Lukas) who can't yet truly control the pace and take over and create the style/identity. Like all 3 pieces trying, but it's not getting together. We score a lot of ugly points, rarely having smooth buckets of the p'n'r that Slovenia has so much f.e. Scoring is always like child delivery for us.

Regarding the game against Slovenia, we have to say that Kuz, Lekavicius exceeded expactations, Grigonis was great till crunch time, but both bigs were really bleak all game long and they can blame only themselves. They even had enough of ISO post possessions, but Slovenians kept knocking the ball out of their hands or they couldn't finish in the traffic under the boards. In other words, we can't blame only lack of guards. Our elite bigs are not exactly providing to the extent that is needed too. I mean can we justify complete off night by JV in 4finals? No. Prime JV had to deliver. Arvydas Sabonis wasn't taking any nights off ever, and specially when it mattered. But that's the difference between JV and A. Sabonis.

[Straight forward]

Starting 5:

Domas, Sedekerskis, Ulanovas, Brazdeikis, Jokubaitis

Bench:

JV, Tubelis, Butkevicius, Grigonis, Lekavicius

All EL level rotation, IMO.

[Shawshank]

NT would make such a huge improvement with just any of the real shooter PF world class level like Markannen,Vezenkov,Mirotic,Wagner,J.Hernangomez,Ca ncar,Deck,Avdija

This very important breed/player type how that streaching floor is done in 2020s basketball.


to lesser degree even latvians Bertans/Smits PF types thats why is so difficult to defend full Latvia NT with Porzingis shooting from C and those 2 from PF.


Putting 2 non shooters bigs we gonna see same painfull basketball when everything comes very difficult offensively in last 5minutes for ltu nt like 2014-2022 .

Compare those 4 ltu best bigs to those players i named they are trash shooting wise.


After Kleiza hurt his knee LTU NT never played attractive basketball. Without such type shooting high quality PF its very unlikely to play nowadays style basketball.

[Straight forward]

Here's the answers:

https://www.instagram.com/p/Cm1cFHRINK8/?hl=en

https://twitter.com/NIBCOfficial/status/1599198451430223872

Both 3/4, but I naturally see Muras at 4 (as he is tough as nails and has post game too) and Buzelis at 3 (as he has more advanced guard skills).

This Olympic cycle we will still be grinding, push the ball inside. No obvious answers at 4. Kuz shot the ball well, but we suck at D with Kuz. What we can do is to make more space with cutting, and maybe use some Ulanovas at 4. He seems to be able to shoot now.

[Shawshank]

Pakenas he contacts directly with gudaitis and grigonis themselfs and had took manny long interviews with them.

Today pakenas said: Grigonis after eurobasket was thinking taking off summer 2023,because back is hurting ,getting better and again hurting. Like i said back wont heal fully until he will stop doing proffesionals loads on his body.

Pakenas said Grigonis can play now and played only 5minutes in last game because has some conflicts with Panathinaikos coach/management about how heal his own back.

According to Pakenas the longer this situation will go with Grigonis on the bench the better chances seeing Grigonis in Nt 2023.


But overall how Pakenas described situation with Grigonis back its sounds bad.

Dont see him playing till 35. In summers we can forget he will play in his 30s,hopefully Marius will help NT till 2024 Olympics.

[Straight forward]

Grigonis IN would be great news, but also I'm not too optimistic knowing his issues. Seems like his career is at the stakes, much like Macijauskas' was.

Under Maksvytis I expect to see Lekavicius more of 2019 version than 2021. Maskoliunas blew it badly. Just play f...p'n'r, make some plays to open left hand drives for both Lukas and Jokubaitis and you're good. When you have such screeners as JV/Domas you can utilize Jokubaitis/Lekavicius all day long.

My guess would be such:

13ppg Grigonis
10ppg Jokubaitis
9ppg Lekavicius

32ppg total my prediction.

My prediction was pretty spot on. Grigonis was with 14,5ppg, Jokubaitis 9,2, Lekavicius 7.7. Total 31,4

Off course, Iggy was a bonus. He became top 5 scoring player instantly coming from the G League basically, with 10,7ppg.

So overall guards 45,2ppg, half of the points, good balance with bigs/forwards.

Regarding 2023, I hope that Jokubaitis not necessary will increase his scoring much, but I want more assists. He has to generate more points. I want something like 10ppg, 7aapg from him. That's a lot to ask, but it's possible. Brazdeikis depends a lot on the shape. Luckily for us he was shooting well in EB, but I think he'll be around 10ppg, maybe even exceed it to 12-14ppg if he will be in good shape. Grigonis I think would be 12-14ppg. Lekavicius 7-9ppg. Hopefully we get something from Dimsa/D.Giedraitis as grinders.

Our guard impact won't be radically different, but any improvement should be potentially radically important cause we already were 6th best offensive team in EB. 88.8ppg. The best scoring teams were surprisingly Greece with 92.2ppg and Serbia with 90ppg. Our goal should be to improve our defense and not to lose an offensive power that we had. Sometimes closing games well means being able to make stops. You don't even need great offensive closers.

Adding Sedekerskis, Ulanovas, Tubelis, Dimsa/D.Giedraitis should do it. We would be better defensive team.

We can conclude that our 2022 team was much more talented offensively. We were dropping 88,8ppg against much better opposition compared to 81.7ppg in 2017 EB. And even better than WC 2019- 84.8ppg.

I'm not sure we can score better in 2023 cause we already were almost at the ceiling with 89ppg as usually 92ppg is the top, but I don't see Lithuania declining. I think Domas, Jokubaitis, Brazdeikis can be better. Ulanovas can add scoring too. Maybe JV's, Kuz's, Lekavicius' roles may decline a bit, but it's more about their roles, not capabilities. We do have to realize that WC is even another beast as 4 more elite teams will join - USA, Australia, Canada, Argentina. We're not gonna outscore best teams. Scoring should be strong, but the priority should be improving our defense, that's why we need to make a push and start with mobile unite, creating new identity as agile, grindy, hustle, defensively minded team. That's the only realistic chance for us to snatch medals in WC. To play the way Zalgiris does, beating the opponents with superior hustle presence.

[Straight forward]

Upcoming FIBA window is about 2 things: unleashing Murauskas and Rubstavicius. That's it. There's no other point. Just do it. It's the absolute maximum you can do if you care about LTU basketball. I don't care about few cents we get for these wins in FIBA ranking. Unleashing Murauskas and Rubstavicius is incomparably smartest thing you could do in these meaningless games to make the best lasting impact.

But off course will be seeing Normantas, Radzevicius, Kariniauskas, Girdziunas rocking the stage as always

I think we would have a good chance to win it with any roster against Hungary and lose to France with any roster if Wembey comes, so just unleash youngsters, have sort of pre-camp for 2023 WC.

Velicka, Zemaitis
Rubstavicius, I. Sargiunas, Beliauskas
Kulboka, Lelevicius, Kozys
Murauskas, D. Lavrinovic
Blazevic, Krivas

[LuDux]

I say unleash u16+u17 NT

[Shawshank]

NT 2013-2015 and Zalgiris 2022/2023 shown formula what works for average tallent teams playing versus elite tallent.

Everything starts with defence and play grown ups that knows what the they are doing .Group that will not be scared or bullied by experienced fiba men ,group that can survive emotional runs opponents will make ,that will no panick in those moments and will able to make some stops too in 4 querter.



Butkevicius,Ulanovas,Sedekerskis,Dimsa i would play them more minutes over offensive tallented but tottally black holes in defence like Kuzminskas,R.Giedraitis,Lekavicius types


Brazdeikis on his own category like wild mustang. On good games 30minutes, on his bad wild games 10min. Its unrelistic from formed wild mustang make him loyal,predictable horse.Just let him be who he is.

Jokubaitis little choice we will play Rokas alot bad or good .Maksvytis experiments this season with Dimsa at PG for 5-7minutes in every game .Its an option for defensive lineup.

Big 3 gonna do their things offensively.I expect around 50pts average from them like in 2022.

Surround Big 3 with multiple solid/above average defenders and hope NT will get some lucky breaks in endings too.

[Straight forward]

Big 3 gonna do their things offensively.I expect around 50pts average from them like in 2022.

it's actually 43,2ppg

We should be talking about big 1. We should finally make Sabonis the priority. He'll make role players (the rest of the roster other than Sabonis ATM) better. JV's points have been empty calories. He scores, but also we play shitty D. The recipe is simple - build around Sabonis, run to transition together with him, and play the D like hell of high water. We don't have enough shooters, but I think Ulanovas, Sedekerskis, Grigonis, Brazdeikis, Jokubaitis, Tubelis are good fit cause most of them are good cutters and loves transition BB.

I'm OK LTU NT to be less scoring team, but better defensively. IMO, that's the best recipe for remaining tournaments of this OC.

Let's be honest - today we have Sabonis and the rest of the guys are role players. That's the story. JV is a 4th guy on a winning team. We have only one franchise player. Ironically second who is closest to this is Ulanovas ATM

Zalgiris is scoring 76.9ppg, NT 89ppg. If we want to change our losing offensive identity, we need add those pieces and clear out defensive nightmares as JV, R. Giedraitis, Kuzminskas.

[Toruko]

For 2023 I dont see much difference from 2022. Play making will be in the hands of Jokubaitis, Grigonis and Lekavicius. Ulanovas is probably the biggest plus in comparison to 2022 but he has a very Russian sounding name so I am not sure if he is gonna play. Butkevicius should take a bigger role since he is the best defender who brings a minimum of offensive threat.

A plus will be the coach and many LTU players who play for the same team.

I dont see LTU team separate the two bigs since there is no adequate power forwards with talent and to utilize the full power of the bigs you need to stretch the floor so Kuzminskas will be a must again. Overall its a bit better team with Ulanovas but not significantly better. The defensive problems of Jokubaitis are one of the biggest concerns when I simulate the teams game in my head.