Lithuanian Point Guards

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Jakucionis stock is going crazy right now. Even before this tournament in Spain, Ilinois reporters were projecting him to be the best player of the team, now that they seen how he looks against Spain it's the feeling that he reached even another level. People compare him with White Chocolate Jasion Williams, I can even see a bit of Petrovic in him (OK, with less shooting, but much more handles and passing), the way he gathers himself for a shot, and that body control and toughness, and how quick and precise his gunning routine. Most importantly he reached new level of explosiveness, his cross overs are lightening quick and he changes directions with force, it's not just agility, but quick dominant physicality which remind a bit of Marciulionis at times. And he just absorbs the space, like he can make certain seperation in basically any spot of the court, be it the tiny spot. His passing is reaching new level. his precision and decision making timing already at different level. He's literally becoming INTO the beast kind of player and one of the greatest 18yo ballers Europe ever seen. We are talking about Doncic, Rubio and such, I even doubt some Dragic looked that well as 18yo. To certain extent this version of Jakucionis is even more impressive than Topic that we witnessed recently. Topic has no perimeter shooting game of Jakucionis and Kasparas seems to be developing into even more dominant passer, more physical player and better defender. We can realistically talk about lottery, he's there, oh my goodness.

Verbiage, verbiage! Worse than scout speak. Once again, do you work as a publicity agent for a certain few players? If so, you succeed in only laying out the carpet for disappointment.

~ 20ppg, ~10as, ~6rbs per game is not out of question for Kasparas in this U18 tournament if he will be healthy.

That's all you expect after the previous paragraph of over-the-top praise? I'd expect record setting numbers all around. I'll be content with a team Gold though to which he makes a strong contribution.

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More highlights of Jakucionis. Beast.

https://x.com/imLuckyD/status/1815430113585963039?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1815430113585963039%7Ctwgr%5E2ce2c5829107e5390a78655dd2bbd1c82749aea1%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.basketnews.lt%2Fnews-209475-titulo-gynybos-pasiruosime-trys-lietuvos-18-meciu-pergales-ispanijoje.html

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Spot on take:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQz48a0b7YM&ab_channel=Augustas%C5%A0uliauskas

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Spot on scouting report on Jakucionis:

https://www.si.com/nba/draft/prospect-profiles/nba-draft-scouting-report-illinois-kasparas-jakucionis

[Toruko]

Late First-Round Pick in 2025 NBA Draft.

This is more his range. He will probably swing between late first round or early second round depending on his NCAA performance.

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This is more his range. He will probably swing between late first round or early second round depending on his NCAA performance.

Possibility. Another possibility, he gets another big year of development and cement himself into a lottery. But I'm always more sceptical about NCAA. They can easily screw playing time for him, and he could ball big time somewhere in ACB or some German average club having all minutes. We'll see.

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Terrific explicit scouting on Jakucionis. I liked that author even gave a take on LTU U18 NT which is spot on. If Jakucionis had dominant finishing big he had provided +10 assists as he did with Barca U18 in ANGT finals. I bet Kaspa would look nicely with bigs as Sabonis/Tubelis/Krivas.

Understanding the context of the team Jakucionis was working with is essential. The second-best player on the team was Nojus Indrusaitis, a former Illinois recruit and current Iowa State Cyclones incoming freshman. His role was that of a scorer, providing shooting and the ability to drive and finish at the basket. Mantas Juzenas, a wing, didn’t offer much from the outside but could drive to the hoop and score. Gantas Krizanauskas was one of my favorite players—a low-usage, high-impact glue guy who excelled as a point-of-attack defender and was a smart shooter and cutter on offense. He always seemed to make the right play with a high basketball IQ and quick decision-making. The center, Nedas Raupelis, reminded me of Nnanna Egwu; he contributed defensively but struggled with poor hands and touch on offense, making him better suited for a low-usage role. Overall, the team finished 6th out of 16 teams, but they lacked a dominant big man on offense that kept them from winning it all.

And this paragraph was essential to me. Very spot on. Kaspa simply can move 4 directions any time and that's special. Nojus actually is almost the same, just that he has lower motor and is not as sharp as Kaspa (besides he doesn't have Kaspa facilitation game).

We also have to talk about KJ’s crossover. It’s incredibly effective, allowing him to gain advantages against defenders. His ability to change direction is noticebale. If you’ve ever played chess, you know that certain pieces can only move in specific ways. Basketball is similar—some players can’t dribble well, and some can only go in one direction, or only go downhill. But when watching KJ, it feels like he can move in any direction at any time front to back and side to side.. Despite not having elite athleticism, his ability to get anywhere on the court with his handle and patience is what sets him apart. He’ll get to the basket, step back to his left, and split double teams. While others are playing checkers, Kasparas Jakucionis is playing chess.

Very accurate take on shooting. KJ has better shot than numbers suggests cause he takes some difficult shots. With time when he will select his shots a bit more accurately, % should increase, but I don't want him to become to predictable. I hope he will remain a guy who doesn't afraid to take some tough shots. Much like Schroder does with Germany. He wouldn't stop shooting even if it's not falling and eventually hitting some big ones.

For Lithuania, Jakucionis was the primary offensive engine, with the ball in his hands much of the time, forcing him to create plays rather than capitalize on catch-and-shoot opportunities. Many of his threes come from pull-ups off the dribble, which are inherently more challenging. As he transitions to college basketball, the focus will be less on his shooting mechanics and more on his shot selection—knowing when and where to take his perimeter shots.

Another great observation. KJ the best when he kind plays with his both feet offensively.

Jakucionis needs to be a “dancer” around the rim, utilizing his patience, ball control, and passing ability. He’s much more effective when playing off two feet and staying under control rather than trying to finish off one foot. When he’s at his best, he gets into the paint and, with patience, has numerous options at his disposal: a shot fake to get the defender in the air followed by a shot or drawing a foul, a pass to a cutter, a dump-off pass to the big, or kicking it out to an open shooter if he draws a double team.

Extremely good points on turnovers. While KJ still will need to tighten up his decision making at PROs, most great guards tend to turn the ball over cause they were creative and risking. Jasikevicius always was having around 4TOs in the game when he dominated Euroleague. That's how it should be for high creativity players.

I’ll note that in the Eurobasket tournament, where there’s a lot of basketball in a short period, being the offensive engine for a team can wear a player down. Jakucionis averaged 4.4 turnovers per game at Eurobasket. But to put that in perspective, potential top-5 NBA pick next season, Nolan Traore of France, averaged 4.7 turnovers per game, and future lottery pick Hugo Gonzalez of Spain averaged 3.6 turnovers per game.

I sure hope this guy is right KJ role on Illini next season. He thinks KJ will remain offensive engine as he was for LTU U18, but surrounded by much better talent. He thinks KJ should be "the dude", even if Illini has prospects as Will Riley (hated when I heard he's coming, was chucking up every possible shot in BWB camp playing along Kaspa, LOL ).

Kasparas Jakucionis will create in a slightly different way. While he could be effective using some ‘booty ball’ techniques, he’ll likely receive a lot of ball screens and can essentially be Illinois’ version of Luka Doncic. Now, do I think KJ can reach Luka’s level in the NBA? No, that’s not the likely outcome. Luka was dominating the Euroleague, winning MVP and a title with Real Madrid at age 18/19 season. I don’t see Jakucionis reaching that level. Perhaps in the NBA he’s more suited for a role as a sixth man—an offensive engine off the bench, a combo guard who can play off-ball with a star and then lead the offense when the star rests. Given his lack of elite athleticism and defense, Jakucionis will need to be truly exceptional on offense to reach All-Star status in the NBA.

I think the dude is too harsh a bit on defensive side of KJ. If KJ won't have to carry as much offensive load as he did with U18, he will play much stronger D, as he did at the end of Eurobasket, and would be even more effective cutter than he was with LTU NT. But overall terrific scouting with video, one of the best I've read recently. I really hope things will be good for KJ on Illini. We can't afford any setbacks for KJ and MB. These 2 have to play and smoothen up their path straight to senior NT.

At Illinois, Jakucionis will benefit from playing alongside more versatile teammates, which should help him maximize his strengths in pick-and-roll situations and as a facilitator. Although he may not reach the level of an NBA superstar, he has the potential to be a star for the Illini and a significant contributor at the college level, with scouts already taking notice of his potential.

https://hoopinformatics.substack.com/p/kasparas-jakucionis-a-comprehensive

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Brad Underwood, Illini head coach, on Jakucionis and his upcoming role:

"He's very, very gifted with the ball," Underwood said. "He played a little different with the national team. They didn't do as ball screening as he has done prior. They were a little more continuity offense. He impacted the game.

"He's going to take what the game gives him. I think he'll do that here. I'm just excited to see him with our guys and see what that looks like. He's an ultimate playmaker. He's a shot-maker when he needs to be. He's just got to get back to we'll be using him in some ball screens, and they didn't do a ton of that in the U18s."

https://247sports.com/college/illinois/longformarticle/fighting-illini-mens-basketball-nonconference-schedule-difficulty-illinois-head-coach-brad-underwood-will-riley-tomislav-icisic-234980165/#2468462

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Brad Underwood, Illini head coach, on Jakucionis and his upcoming role:

"He's very, very gifted with the ball," Underwood said. "He played a little different with the national team. They didn't do as ball screening as he has done prior. They were a little more continuity offense. He impacted the game.

"He's going to take what the game gives him. I think he'll do that here. I'm just excited to see him with our guys and see what that looks like. He's an ultimate playmaker. He's a shot-maker when he needs to be. He's just got to get back to we'll be using him in some ball screens, and they didn't do a ton of that in the U18s."

https://247sports.com/college/illinois/longformarticle/fighting-illini-mens-basketball-nonconference-schedule-difficulty-illinois-head-coach-brad-underwood-will-riley-tomislav-icisic-234980165/#2468462

What Brad is basically saying that they will run a lot of screens next season. They will shift from "booty ball" to more of "screens" ball. I read the article where it says that Illini has dominant roller Morez Johnoson and the author thinks that Kaspa can make a dominant p'n'r duet with him. He even draw comparison between the 2 with Grizzlies Morant and Steve Adams. Also there's a young super athletic dude who can also explode next Jakucionis. The article is about that. Carey Booth has amazing potential and is blessed to play next KJ. Also Kaspa will have plenty of guys around to kick out after pick and pop. So he will be surrounded with tons of TALENT.

In the NT screens only was reducing space. No-one could role and finish hard. That was hard to watch. If Kaspa had some Tubelis, it would be game over. None of teams would have had any chances. In Barca Kaspa had agile and athletic finishers as bigs and he was just feeding them with +13 assists per game. Something like that we might see in Illini. I think Kaspa's scoring numbers dropping cause there's so many guys who can score on the team, the team is stacked, be if he will be given the keys of pick and roll he can really dish and lead this team. On good night he can dish some 20 assists I believe if those rollers are dominant and those talented wings and guards making shots.

Interesting development area for Kaspa. I think it is ultra beneficial if he gets his +25 minutes. Anything less for him is a disappointment, IMO, even if he's a rookie. FOA, very competitive environment. If he survives that, he's the real deal. Second, he will learn to play with good rollers and good pieces around which will only help with his NBA and NT career. In the NT he also will have extremely gifted bigs as Sabonis, Krivas, Tubelis. Some elite wings as Buzelis, Rubstavicius, Indrusaitis. So all this makes a perfect sense to me. If the minutes are there, he's in most intense development situation he could get.

This is where it gets exciting because I can’t stop thinking about what Carey Booth’s ceiling could be and how well he might play alongside Kasparas Jakucionis.

Kasparas Jakucionis, if you haven’t read my last piece, is poised to be an elite college playmaker. He can score at every level and has elite vision, feel, and passing ability. The Illinois offense will likely shift away from “booty ball” this season and lean more into a ball screen-heavy offense. So, how might those ball screens look with the Illini frontcourt?

KJ can run pick-and-pop with the great three-point shooter Ben Humrichous. Then Morez Johnson will be able to set screens and roll to the basket, potentially becoming an elite offensive rebounder off the two-man game. To illustrate this, consider the Memphis Grizzlies’ dynamic with Ja Morant and Steven Adams. Adams would dominate teams with his offensive rebounding by rolling to the basket. When Morant drove downhill, both defenders would often focus on stopping his drive, leaving Adams unguarded for putbacks. KJ and Morez Johnson could employ a similar strategy. If KJ gets downhill and the defenders are drawn to him, he can simply put up a floater, knowing that Johnson will be there to clean up the miss.

With Tomislav Ivisic, the offense could become even more versatile. Ivisic can shoot, allowing for pick-and-pop plays. He can also short roll, making plays 4-on-3 by passing out to shooters. While Ivisic may not be a rim runner, his good feel and understanding of positioning could allow him to find advantageous spots near the basket, where KJ’s elite passing could find him in the two-man game.

The potential avenues a KJ-Booth two-man game could take are what excite me most. No matter what the defense tries to take away, they will have a counter. And while this may not be the most likely outcome for Booth as a sophomore, it’s hard not to be intrigued by the possibilities.

https://hoopinformatics.substack.com/p/the-intriguing-potential-of-carey

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These guys high on KJ. I remember they where on the down side of M. Buzelis last year. One of them even had Buzelis as 18th pick or so as I remember. With Matas problems where that he was more of a project than actual deliverer now. But how determined and aggressive he looked in Summer League...He just needs to show that he can improve his % from the field. He has it all just has to polish it. That's a question mark though. Some polish it and became consistent and some don't. Consistency separate stars and non stars in the game.

On Kasparas they got it right in most cases, I believe he can be as Kirk Hindrich a bit too. Meaning he shoots 37% from the three in his career and I could see Kaspa being more sharper driver and more gifted passer likely.

Anyway, these guy's love Kaspa as first LTU they like in a long time. I think they were a bit too harsh on Matas. There's still a question mark, next 2 season will show, but I expect Matas constantly improving.

https://x.com/NoCeilingsNBA/status/1826719817736618476

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Another comparison dropped for Jakucionis. Spencer Dinwiddie. Well, they have some similarities. Spencer is more athletic, but Kaspa is way more of a floor general and should be better shooter.

I realized that comparison with Micic is pretty spot on. Their size is rather similar, and game style too. They have rather similar pull up game. I expect Kaspa to be a bit more explosive scorer than Micic though at NBA level. I think athletically Kaspa has a bit of an edge compared to Micic.

Dinwiddie had a 20+ points season in the NBA. If Kaspa reaches that level one day - great.

Pro comparison: Spencer Dinwiddie

Coming off a U18 European Championships averaging 19.4 points, 5.3 assists and 2.1 threes, Kasparas Jakucionis will now arrive at Illinois with some extra hype. He's gradually moved up our projections using 6'6" size, three-level shotmaking and passing feel.

His game looks similar to prime Spencer Dinwiddie's with how he leverages creativity into playmaking, improvises as a scorer and shoots off the catch or dribble. Jakucionis is crafty with his handle, change of speed and finishing package, and he demonstrates tough shotmaking skill from the mid-range and three-point land.

He'll split time at both backcourt positions for Illinois.

https://www.bleacherreport.com/articles/10131879-2025-nba-draft-early-pro-comparisons-for-projected-lottery-picks

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In EL my all eyes are on Jokubaitis. How he will handle main PG role for Maccabi. One thing that I hate seeing in Rokas, that he never gets in shape physically. When he came to Barca for the first season, he was in shape. He was nearly ripped. Other 2 seasons he can't. It shows he eats poorly and he doesn't train enough. For Rokas it's important to 100% ready physically. He's not the fastest and not most explosive guard outthere. If he want to show his best, he has to shape up, but unfortunately the tendency is bad. His father was chubby if I recall correctly, it won't be good news for LTU BB if with each year he'll become bigger and bigger. He has to look at the mirror and as himself if he wants to utilize his chance for his PRO career and eat it right, or he will waste it with the junk food. So far the answer seem to be the latter and his passive upside might be reduced a bit because of that. Literally Jokubaitis played most intimidating basketball in his first season with Barca. After that he wasn't the same. Now he has a good chance to show he's serious with his career, if he will waste this chance, I will focus my attention Jakucionis and Marciulionis duet. They don't seem to have any issues with working ethics.

Nevertheless, with the positive scenario, I see Jokubaitis having 13ppg, 7as, 4rbs, 15eff in 22mpg for Maccabi this season. Something like that. For that he must show his best effort. And in 2025/2026 season he should become legitimate 26mpg indisputable starting level EL PG and average around 15ppg and 7-8as per game.

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Good talk on Jakucionis at 23:00. Very spot take that It's been a while to see Euro guard with such dominant step back shooting profile and such diverse passing arsenal. They go as far as saying that Kaspa is the best step back shooter since Luka and I have no other examples who could stand between those 2 as well (dominant other PGs and Nunez or Troare are not that expressed shooters at guard). When Kaspa on his best, like nailing 5/8 of his off the dribble threes, that's different ball game. You don't see much of Euro guards with such fluid and expressed shooting profile of the dribble and creating space. That's hell of rare thing and that's what makes Jakucionis potential Lotto.

https://open.spotify.com/episode/6HNamrKQuABBQknTlNf3GI?si=JTErLv-3QKynFruttHmMOg&nd=1&dlsi=dd49cb10bca04aab

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Big believer in KJ shot. I think he might come down to history as one of the best off the dribble Lith shooters, he has that ability. And seems like he's working a lot on his shot. From this video you can see he's watching a lot of "Luka" I don't see prospects in Europe with better step back jimmy. He has it. It's rare for Euros.

https://www.instagram.com/p/C-ZkchzMNGg/?hl=en

You can dislike Gedvilas, but he said the right thing about LTU basketball state now (NT). "We are struggling against aggressive defense, we can shoot only open, but now you should be able to shoot from 8 meters distance, contested shots, the defense should be aggressive. (...). Basketball should be aggressive and fast. Curry in the finals just made his shots without any set plays. You have to be able to shoot".

That's our problem. We have leading guards as Grigonis who can shoot open, but always choke against elite defenses. Can't play with the ball, can't brake aggressive defense. We need guys who can go against elite aggressive defense and create space for themselves no matter what defense against them. Our basketball really had a bad stretch from 2016 to 2024 when out lead guard became Grigonis. In 2024 all the tools already had to be given to Jokubaitis, but our scrubby coach screwed even here. Grigonis a lead guard is big downgrade compared even to Kalnietis. This stretch, IMO, will come down to history as the weakest "guard" stretch ever. There's no way next wave with KJ, Jokubaitis, Indrusaitis, Rubstavicius will be that bad, it's impossible, literally. More like it will be 100% different story in terms of quality.

Next season is a huge one for LTU BB. We will have a clearer picture what's going on with key pieces Buzelis, KJ, but also how other keys as Jokubaitis doing as the main EL club PG, how Rubstavicius develops as he will have all the minutes in Eurocup. Other super important players as Murauskas, Tubelis, Krivas will have big roles next season. Most importantly to track how KJ and Buzelis are doing. If those 2 won't pan out into FIBA stars, we will remain lacking star power.

https://www.instagram.com/p/C_D1SqwPoNv/?hl=en

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Notice how KJ jumps forward with his jimmy. Like even in his catch and shoot shots he jumps forward. If you're not faking the downfall, you can get plenty of 3+1 with that jimmy. And KJ constantly getting those. Bouncy jump shot is really an art. That's why I'm very optimistic about him. Not only passing clinics, good slashing ability, but off the bounce jump shot, step back.