All time NT

[Straight forward]

Retrospectively looking, regarding the positive impact to the NT, I have this:

Javtokas > Valanciunas

What those 2 generations taught - defensive center is more impactful than offensive center. Javtokas was just a right piece for a winning team. He would cover the D, he wouldn't ask the ball offensively and play within the flow nearly perfectly. Valanciunas would be a back hole defensively, stop the flow offensively with ISO post scoring attempts.

To me the lesson learned, NT needs more of defensive centers. I watched 40yo or so Sabonis with Zalgiris a bit yesterday (against PAO, game's in youtube). He still could move way more flexibly and shifty than JV, his defensive IQ was top notch, his quick and long hands were terrific, brilliant, I think no-one had such hands, no-one in basketball (maybe Hakeem, but he had shorter hands), he was making so many deflections. I'm convinced that JV's presence turned out to be the most disappointing outcome that could possibly be. He couldn't establish his offensive dominance into man's basketball (specially FIBA) and was complete failure defensively. Time to say that nearly a prodigy of Youth basketball, the most dominant U-level player of Lithuania, turned out to be complete disappointment in PRO.

Overall I doubt Lithuania will ever have such talent as Arvydas Sabonis ever again. I understand this with age even better. He was sensational player. If he had a chance to be in the NBA environment starting with being 18-20yo, I think he could have a chance to become MVP in some NBA seasons. He had everything what fantastic center needs to have and he was way better defender than Jokic.

[Straight forward]

No players from Paulauskas and Jovaisa's kids. Arvydas son Domas will be hall of fame. Marciulionis sone Augustas will be a good player. Kurtinaitis son was poor player. I'm surprised we don't hear anything from Karnisovas, he has three kids, but none of them stood out as players so far. Einikis son was mediocre. Siskauskas son Matas has some promise, but long term piece (still that crazy 2006 generation which not only has plenty of stars, but interesting long term side prospects). Jasikevicius son might be good, but too soon to say, but he's playing. No news on Macijauskas kids yet. Stombergas kid is a standout of 2008 gen.

Sometimes genes are not so important. Jakucionis comes from non basketball family and he might come down as second best LTU guard ever in LTU chronicles. But I'm a bit disappointed that we don't hear things from Karnisovas and Macijauskas side. Those guys were scoring machines literally. And genes surely don't hurt. Buzelis comes from pure basketball family.

[Straight forward]

Lithuanians lead Olympic basketball in assist. Time to present new great guard Jakucionis into the mix, starting with 2028.

https://x.com/supportersmagaz/status/1821093702422372501

[Straight forward]

I sneaked in to study the champs of 20s so far and one clear tendency (unsurprising, but still interesting specially in lasted USA edition). The team which wants to WIN IT ALL has to have one leading player who would take 17-19 shots per game. One non arguable leader. And that leader should make at least 50% FGA, and make at least 28pts. In 2021 Olympic final Durant took 18 shots and scored 29pts. In 2022 true final was Spain vs Germany (in finals Spain weak France comfortably), both L. Brown and Schroder went hard against each other with 17 shots each and having big games. In 2023 Schroder 17 shots and 28pts. In opposing team Avramovic tried to match that with 15 shots, but the % wasn't there exactly. In 2024 it is specially interesting that Curry was still big time leader next Lebron and KD, Ant and so on. In the finals he took only 13 shots and KD had 12, but the true final was against Serbia in semis and there Curry took 19 shots, dropped 36pts and no-one was even close.

Basically so far the story is clear. To win the key big games (be it in semis or final), you have to have a guy who can unleash BIG GAME taking 17-19 shots with 50% and +.

The last guy of such mentality was Kleiza. He unleashed 18 shots agains Serbia in small final in 2010 and dropped 33pts. No-one from Lithuanians ever get close to such scoring bursts ever since. No-one has balls and profile of the player taking +17 shots, not even for a try. Grigonis is guy who can unleash 13-14 shots, but that's it, it's his range and he can't cope with pressure and tough defense when it matters. Before Kleiza we had Siskauskas (who unleashed 17 shots agains Russia in 2007 semis and dropped 30pts), Macijauskas who would unleash 16 shots in Olympics 2004. Jasikevicius (with 16 shots in 2000 Olympics). And of course before those we had ultimate scorers in Karnisovas, Marciulionis, Sabonis, Kurtinaits (Kurtis unleashed 16 shots in 1992 Olympics).

So in all history we had 8 ultimate scorers who could take 16 and plus shots per game (maybe Stombergas here should be mentioned too). When Kleiza collapsed we ceased to have such calibre players. No-one could offer that in 2014-2024 stretch. So basically we have no ultimate scorer for 10 years.

Today without such players to win I think is nearly impossible. You surely can't win tournaments. Even second rate teams as PR who have some individual talent can punish unprepared us because they have players who have talent and guts to unleash 17-19 shots per game and cause trouble.

That's why next season or 2-3 upcoming seasons will be the key. We will know what we get from guys who potentially have that mentality and ability to go off in big games and be true leaders. KJ and Buzelis, These guys have range of taking excessive shots and make them. Jakucionis in U18 unleashed 29 shots. In Spanish lague with Barca, he unleash 26 shots and 7 FTs in his 39pts game. Buzelis showed in Summer League he wants to be a lead player. He played with star's mentality and he was taking shots even when it did not fall. He showed he's ready to take 18 shots and so per game. These 2 are key and next season not only will show how Buzelis makes a debut on NBA court, but also will define whenever KJ will play in NBA after one NCAA season with Illini and will come to NT 2027 as 2 years NBA experience guy (if he's choking with Illini and not being selected first round in 2025, then the story gets complicated, if he prevails in Illini we will know he's a true stud and going forward without any set backs).

But here's the thing, that's not the only guys who might reach that level of a guy who can shoot 16-17 shots and plus. Brazdeikis unleashed 19 shots in Summer League and dropped 30. In NT as a rookie he unleashed 14 shots and was leading the team per FGA. His ceiling is limited because of certain things, but he plays like alpha and mentality wise is close to Kleiza, just not that talented and explosive. Then Sirvydis. Yes, I believe Sirvuha can unleash some major tournaments in the future. He won't be your true lead player per se most likely, but he is the guy who doesn't care and can shoot his 9th three after missing all previously. Sirvydis let Eurocup in scoring and that's not easy to do. None other LTU player ever did that. Indrusaitis is the guy who unleashed 25 and 24 shots games in U18, he is nearly on the same tier with KJ when it comes to scoring ego and scoring bursts range. He is most ISO gifted after KJ and Buzelis. Rubstavicius also is alpha when it comes to scoring and can have major scoring outbursts. He might repeat what Sirvydis did in Eurocup, but to do that being younger than him. His 37pts game at U20 just conforms that. Murauskas also is ultimate scorer. He unleashe 20 and 18 FGA games in U20. And lastly, maybe surprisingly for some, it's Tubelis. Tubelis is an ultimate offensive player with flawless attitude offensively. He doesn't give a fuck and would play with the same face all the time, in good way. He would jack off some air ball three and hit nothing but the net in second possession. His non hiesitant profile makes him intriguing. He would dunk on people, as a big he can launch 7-8 threes with comfort. His body language reminds Kleiza a lot as well. In U19 he unleashed 21 shots in one game. A guy who showed he can comfortably take 18 shots and so in LKL.

So our situation potentially is very bright:

World class potential ultimate scorers:

KJ, Buzelis

Alpha mentality scorers

Iggy, Indrusaitis, Sirvydis, Rubstavicius, Murauskas, Tubelis