Have we just now entered the real Obradovic Era?

[qiangdade]

I have made a theory lately that we have just now entered the real Obradovic Era. An age that the Serbian coach will win the majority of all upcoming Euroleague titles. I am talking about percentage. If we count last season's EL title in he new Era he has the chance to win more titles within the next 10-15 years than in the past 25.

In fact I believe that the next 20 years or so only three coaches will win the Euroleague: Obradovic, Itoudis, Saras. Assuming that the first two stay with their current teams and Saras goes to Barca. They are not only one level above their coaching competition, but several.

The reasoning behind this is:

- the "new" EL format. Obradovic' teams regularly suffered in short TOP 16 or playoff series. 2006, 2008, 2010 for example. I argue that with the current format Obradovic would have reached the final four in all three occasions.
- The Euroleague is "bleeding" top players to the China and the NBA with the raised salary cap so it's harder for teams like Real with mediocre coaches and money to build super rosters capable of carrying themselves to the title.

If this comes to be proven so in the next couple of years, it may mean that the new system along the lack of a salary cap will just render European basketball boring (for any other fan than Fener, CSKA and Barca).

Just a thought. Would be interesting to know how you see it.

[berry]

Khimki-Maccabi-Olympiakos-PAO(if he stays)-Baskonia.How can you take these teams out of the picture so lightly.And if you tie Obradovic future with Fener then there is also another parameter to consider:Turkish economy future doesnt seem so bright.

[paspalj]

Although I agree in principal with your theory the math doesn't really work out.

Obradovic has 9 titles, so saying that he will win more in the next 10-15 years means that he ia going to be winning almost every year. Also if Itoudis and Saras are the only other ones that will win it in the next 20 years then their getting 5 each (at least)

Although Obradovic, Itoudis and Saras will win it unboubtely, I believe you are overfitting. 20 years is a long time, and teams like Oly or Pao with a small bump in the budget will be able to named favorites.

Moreover, you have teams like Barca, and Real, really big european teams that can easily become contenders with minor tweaks. Real is a contender this year too.

Then you have to account for recent rich teams like Khimki that might be a surprise.

So, all in all, I kind of agree, but not to the extent you analyzed

[qiangdade]

Khimki-Maccabi-Olympiakos-PAO(if he stays)-Baskonia.How can you take these teams out of the picture so lightly.And if you tie Obradovic future with Fener then there is also another parameter to consider:Turkish economy future doesnt seem so bright.

Khimki that has never achieved anything and is on the verge of being swept by CSKA? Maccabi that has not reached a final four since 2014? Pao that has not reached a final four since 2012 and declares the're going to FIBA? Baskonia that has won nothing and are being swept by Obradovic??? Only Oly are legit in that group and not for much longer with Spanoulis and Print at the end of their careers. I am talking about a hypothetical era that started in 2016 anyway so they are all irrelevant.


Not taking teams out of the picture, just coaches. I am talkign about the status quo. There's no indication at the moment that either Fener or CSKA will not have strong investors. If this changes, dynamics change also. But even if say Fener goes bankrupt and Obradovic has to go to another team it will surely be an economic powerhouse and Itoudis/Saras will gladlyl fill in the title gap.

[berry]

Khimki that has never achieved anything and is on the verge of being swept by CSKA? Maccabi that has not reached a final four since 2014? Pao that has not reached a final four since 2012 and declares the're going to FIBA? Baskonia that has won nothing and are being swept by Obradovic??? Only Oly are legit in that group and not for much longer with Spanoulis and Print at the end of their careers. I am talking about a hypothetical era that started in 2016 anyway so they are all irrelevant.


Not taking teams out of the picture, just coaches. I am talkign about the status quo. There's no indication at the moment that either Fener or CSKA will not have strong investors. If this changes, dynamics change also. But even if say Fener goes bankrupt and Obradovic has to go to another team it will surely be an economic powerhouse and Itoudis/Saras will gladlyl fill in the title gap.

CSKA will always have money.Its the state's club.For Fener i just mentioned what economists have been saying.Real and Barca will always be ok as long as the football part is ok.But you included Barca in the 4 you mentioned and not Maccabi saying that they havent achieved anything since winning in 13-14.What did Barca achieve since being 3rd in 13-14?Nothing.For me if Khimki maintains the roster they will be strong candidate next year.And Baskonia is always a team to be feared.

[Erkan12]

Khimki-Maccabi-Olympiakos-PAO(if he stays)-Baskonia.How can you take these teams out of the picture so lightly.And if you tie Obradovic future with Fener then there is also another parameter to consider:Turkish economy future doesnt seem so bright.

Turkish economy yes, Fener's? Probably not, if Ali Koç wins the election, then the Koç group will support the team, if not, we will pray for Doğuş group to sticking with the current deal (at least 2 years more).

The only solid opponent currently for us is CSKA and maybe Madrid. Olympiacos or Pao can't match with us, Khimki, Zalgris and Baskonia aren't even close, Maccabi also doesn't seem good.

The only reason why Oly or Pao can possibly win against us because of the F4 format, in a one-game only competition, anything can happen if there isn't a gigantic difference between the teams. In a play-off format, only CSKA can match with us, any team like Oly, Pao, Madrid or Maccabi, loses with 3-0 or 3-1 at best.

[qiangdade]

Obradovic has 9 titles, so saying that he will win more in the next 10-15 years means that he ia going to be winning almost every year.

I said I count last year to the new era so the titles are 8-1 so far.
He needs another 8 in the next 15 years. I think it is doable with the current circumstances.
Moreover the main argument is that he will win the majority of titles in the next 10-15 years, not necessarily 8 titles. He may have the majority even with 6. But I certainly don't exclude 8.

Also if Itoudis and Saras are the only other ones that will win it in the next 20 years then their getting 5 each (at least)

Itoudis already has one and indeed this is what I am saying. I think it is valid.

Although Obradovic, Itoudis and Saras will win it unboubtely, I believe you are overfitting. 20 years is a long time, and teams like Oly or Pao with a small bump in the budget will be able to named favorites.

I don't know how they will win titles or be named favorites with inferior budgets, inferior players and (way) inferior coaches. I respect your opinion and it may well happen, I just don't see how. I believe my prediction to be more likely.

Moreover, you have teams like Barca, and Real, really big european teams that can easily become contenders with minor tweaks. Real is a contender this year too.

In my scenario Saras goes to Barca, so no objection on this part. They will win a lot of titles together.
Real wins every 20 years, they are toast till 2035.
Fun aside in 2015 they had a super roster, there was no Itoudis or Saras, and Obradovic just in the beginning of building his Fener. Laso got lucky. He will not get lucky again. And Real won't be able to build a super roster that easily again due to increased salary cap in NBA and China which I already addressed.

Then you have to account for recent rich teams like Khimki that might be a surprise.

I have no indication at this moment that they will ever do anything else than advancing to the playoffs. But even if, they still have an inferior budget and coach.

All in all it is just an ambitious future prediction. Just food for thought, I am not Nostradamus. I will quote my self in 15 years though if it happens

[Johnny7]

Obradovic is a moneyteam coach. When DPG wanted to lower the budget he knew winning was impossible and he left. Now he is in a team with unlimited budget (fener boys will make propaganda now that they are poor but don't believe them) and he should win everything with 30 points difference but can't even do that. Yes in the past he won things with low budget but not anymore. We better call him richie rich

[qiangdade]

Obradovic is a moneyteam coach. When DPG wanted to lower the budget he knew winning was impossible and he left. Now he is in a team with unlimited budget (fener boys will make propaganda now that they are poor but don't believe them) and he should win everything with 30 points difference but can't even do that. Yes in the past he won things with low budget but not anymore. We better call him richie rich

Doesn't change a single thing in my initial argument.

[berry]

Turkish economy yes, Fener's? Probably not, if Ali Koç wins the election, then the Koç group will support the team, if not, we will pray for Doğuş group to sticking with the current deal (at least 2 years more).

The only solid opponent currently for us is CSKA and maybe Madrid. Olympiacos or Pao can't match with us, Khimki, Zalgris and Baskonia aren't even close, Maccabi also doesn't seem good.

The only reason why Oly or Pao can possibly win against us because of the F4 format, in a one-game only competition, anything can happen if there isn't a gigantic difference between the teams. In a play-off format, only CSKA can match with us, any team like Oly, Pao, Madrid or Maccabi, loses with 3-0 or 3-1 at best.

This year's Fener and Oly are quite similar.You are daydreaming if you think you are that better.

[Oly_fan]

Loool

[qiangdade]

Loool

Strong argument.

[iraz]

CSKA will always have money.Its the state's club.

No, it is not. It's owned by Norilsk Nickel, and it's a private company. (Though CSKA has always been lucky to have S. Ivanov as its great fan. Once he was a prominent statesman, now he is not, but he is certainly lobbying the team's interests, I belive). Still, the economic situation in Russia is getting worse, and it very much concernes the NorNickel. So, nobody can be too sure of the future.
As for your main statement, if we abstract from the world economics, I think that may happen only in case these 3 coaches remain at the helm of their teams for that 15-20 years. And we all know such thing has never before happened in Europe. There are always some changes. For instance, Barsa is a very rich team that is tossing big sums out of the window the last couple of years. That can't go on forever. And even Khimki may find better use to their money at last. Your prognosis is overly hypothetical to be correct.

[qiangdade]

No, it is not. It's owned by Norilsk Nickel, and it's a private company. (Though CSKA has always been lucky to have S. Ivanov as its great fan. Once he was a prominent statesman, now he is not, but he is certainly lobbying the team's interests, I belive). Still, the economic situation in Russia is getting worse, and it very much concernes the NorNickel. So, nobody can be too sure of the future.
As for your main statement, if we abstract from the world economics, I think that may happen only in case these 3 coaches remain at the helm of their teams for that 15-20 years. And we all know such thing has never before happened in Europe. There are always some changes. For instance, Barsa is a very rich team that is tossing big sums out of the window the last couple of years. That can't go on forever. And even Khimki may find better use to their money at last. Your prognosis is overly hypothetical to be correct.

Of course it is hypothetical. It is a hypothetical case based on current and foreseeable circumstances.

You identify and disregard the main statement that the three coaches will stay with their teams for 15 years as something that has never happened before. Itoudis and Obradovic stayed with Pao for 13 years and they would have remained if the budget hadn't dropped and DPG wasn't crazy. So 15 has not happened before, but 13 is close enough. In my opinion it can happen.

[turk-jugoslav]

Turkish economy yes, Fener's? Probably not, if Ali Koç wins the election, then the Koç group will support the team, if not, we will pray for Doğuş group to sticking with the current deal (at least 2 years more).

The only solid opponent currently for us is CSKA and maybe Madrid. Olympiacos or Pao can't match with us, Khimki, Zalgris and Baskonia aren't even close, Maccabi also doesn't seem good.

The only reason why Oly or Pao can possibly win against us because of the F4 format, in a one-game only competition, anything can happen if there isn't a gigantic difference between the teams. In a play-off format, only CSKA can match with us, any team like Oly, Pao, Madrid or Maccabi, loses with 3-0 or 3-1 at best.

I admire your confidence. You underestimate a lot many teams that have the tradition and local talent pool. Fener’s success highly depends on money. Obra and his staff probably earns around 5m€ per year. Roster costs 12-13m₺ or maybe more, with other expenses it will reach 28-30m€.

Beside this, Doğuş Group is to get bankrupt. I don’t think they will no longer spend that money on basketball. With 1/3 of Fene’s current budget, not easy to hide Obra and his staff.