Have we just now entered the real Obradovic Era?

[qiangdade]

About the first post, IMO is a non sense. In the next 20 years I am pretty sure that there will be a lot of coaches and teams winning the euroleague.

In a Final Four format any of the four teams can win the title. Without a F4 format CSKA would win 8 of each 10 euroleague because they have always the best team, and that is because they have the higher budget.

I don't see Itoudis or Obradovic coaching in the same team after 5 years.

Most people agree that money plus a good coach like Obradovic or Itoudis (I add Saras to the mix) leads to success. This is also evident in the last two years. So as long there is money and success I don't see why these coaches should not stay with their teams. Obradovic and Itoudis stayed 13 years with Panathinaikos. So if you have Obradovic, Itoudis and Saras (probably with Barca) coaching the teams with the highest budget and reaching the final four every year (cause the current system almost eliminates surprises) I see little room for other coaches and teams to win the title, let alone "a lot".

[gockun]

Money guarantee Obradovic.

With money all is easier.

How many no top8 budget teams played final four in the XXI century? Baskonia five times, Siena four times, Unicaja once, Partizan once (maybe the biggest surprise this century until now) and few more examples.

you think Baskonia is not top 8 budget team? you pay lot to both Shengelia and Timma, plus I believe you probably have bigger money then Maccabi. Last ofseason, if I remember correctly you admited that you got bigger budget too. but all the time you speak about how poor you are. I almost ran out out tears for you.

[jonga]

you think Baskonia is not top 8 budget team? you pay lot to both Shengelia and Timma, plus I believe you probably have bigger money then Maccabi. Last ofseason, if I remember correctly you admited that you got bigger budget too. but all the time you speak about how poor you are. I almost ran out out tears for you.

Yes, Baskonia is not a top8 budget team and never was in all the euroleague history. In fact when Baskonia played the last final four (big surprise, odds paid the title @250 in the start of the season)... Baskonia had some economical problems and their budget was more less 10 million, now is higher but not top8.

CSKA
Khimki
Panathinaikos
Olympiakos
Fenerbahce
Efes
Real Madrid
Barcelona
Milano

Also Valencia have a similar budget to Baskonia, and I don't know Maccabi but it seems at least at the same economical level.

Before the season seemed Baskonia was going to improve their budget, with Larkin and Hanga. But finally have Marcelinho and Garino, so it seems the budget is similar to the last season. The only high salaries are Granger, Timma and Shengelia. Do you think Voigtmann, Poirier or Vildoza are high salaries? I would wish a budget as Fenerbahce, we would play final four every season, but this is the reality.

An example of a not top budget is the next: Tillie signed for Olympiakos, Baskonia could sign a player of any country. His replace was first Malmanis from the B team, then Kevin Jones two months, and finally no one, Voigtmann playing also PF. Other teams signing players in the middle of the season and Baskonia did a renew offer to Jones month a month, and he decided to play in France, so imagine the salarie.

IMO in the XXI century the most meritorious teams are:

1. Olympiakos: 2 titles when their budget was not in the top top, and also played a lot of final fours and finals.

2. Maccabi: 3 titles. 2 when their budget was top and once as a big surprise when their budget was not at the same level.

3. Panathinaikos: 4 titles having a top budget.

4. CSKA: 3 titles and the final four record, having 30-40 million budget. I think they should have won more titles.

5. Baskonia: a five games final vs the best Kinder, 5 final fours, 4 in a row. The fourth team with more quarterfinals after CSKA, Olympiakos and PAO. Being never a top8 budget.

6th and 7th Real Madrid and Barcelona. With their top budgets they should have won more titles.

As a Baskonia fan I think that this analisis is quite real and objcetive.

[turk-jugoslav]

It’s always hard to find accurate numbers about the budgets. First of all, many teams aren’t transparent since the tax issues with the state I guess. In Turkey and Russia, teams are more clear because tax rates are low and state doesn’t make any pressure even if tax evasion are commited. Putin and Erdoğan don’t care that much

See this link: http://www.interbasket.net/forums/ar...hp/t-3661.html
Seems like nothing has changed in IBN since 2007.

Apart from the budget comparison, I always think that teams can’t keep on investing huge amount of money on European basketball. Euroleague doesn’t make huge profits and contributes funny numbers to his members. You spend 30m€, in the end of the day, when you are glorified with the title, you take 1m€. Completely bulls.it.

This is not sustainable for any team unless you have direct or indirect support from the state or state connections. In long-term, financial situations will change. Anyone remembers Kinder? What are they doing now?

If you want Obra, keep on spending millions. Otherwise, he will be left.

[jonga]

About the theme of the topic, I don't think Itoudis, Obradovic and Saras will win most of the titles the next 20 years.

Itoudis is a good coach but the key in CSKA is not him, before him CSKA also was succesful. CSKA will win more titles if their budget remains high, with or whithout Itoudis.

Obradovic will win more titles, or no, nobody knows, his stats in PAO are something amazing (5 titles in 13 years), but if Fenerbahce is not the next champion, it would be 1 of 5 having a top budget. Then all depend of the budget, as turk-jugoslav said, Obradovic will not coach Fenerbahce if the budget goes down.

Saras is nowadays coaching Zalgiris. If Saras is the next coach of Barcelona and have a top budget, nobody knows if he will win a title, Barcelona also had very good coaches, and only won twice in all the history.

But if you want a crazy prediction, Baskonia will win the euroleague in the next 10 years, and Vitoria will have a Final Four in the next 5 years.

[Cemalex]

Baskonia were not a low budget team when theh are Tau Ceremica. This year Jonga said budget will be higher but he doesnt admit ehat he said

Is it a better heroic story when you show your budget lower. It is always better to tell the truth. Galatasaray would do that they say their players budget and our whole budget when they compare the budget. How pathetic it is lol. Making the budget diff big tp normalization of loss.

[jonga]

Baskonia were not a low budget team when theh are Tau Ceremica. This year Jonga said budget will be higher but he doesnt admit ehat he said

Is it a better heroic story when you show your budget lower. It is always better to tell the truth. Galatasaray would do that they say their players budget and our whole budget when they compare the budget. How pathetic it is lol. Making the budget diff big tp normalization of loss.

Some people don't know nothing about Baskonia's history.

Scola was signed when he had 17 years, Nocioni had 19, Calderon, Garbajosa or Splitter had 15 years when Baskonia signed them. Who was Teletovic when he came to Vitoria? He came from Belgium. Prigioni played in Fuenlabrada an Alicante before Baskonia. Macijauskas came from Lietuvos. Do you think this players were top salaries? They are some of the best players in the "Tau Ceramica era".

Baskonia never was top8 budget team, I am not saying that Baskonia have the budget of Crvna Zvezda.

About the budget, the rumours were that the budget would increase but then, Larkin and Hanga out, Marcelinho and Garino in, no bench PF all the season. It is clear that the budget is similar. Janning have been one of the best signings, Janning! Nowadays would Janning play in a top budget team? And I like a lot this player.

[janketa]

Obra will always be hot candidate for the title, so as Fener. I don't think that only three teams will be contenders for the title, at least 7 teams will win titles in next 20 years.
CSKA, Real, Fener, Oly, Pao, Maccabi and Barca.
We are happy that Fener is among powerhouses and we have our chances. This is bullshit that someones wrote about economy in Turkey linking that with Fener future. In 80 milions country we are the club with the most fans and rising interest for basketball. Turkish economy is stronger then Spanish but much more money(x5) is invested in Spanish clubs then in Turkey. So, there will be always space for investing in Fener as success story. Maybe not 30 milion every season but I doubt that budget will ever drop under 20 milions in any case.

Obradovic era doesn't start with change of the competition but in the moment when he started his coaching career.
As he said in many interviews he will continue to do what he knows the best as long as he enjoy in his job. I think he will stay in Fener next five years and he could take one or two titles more. I am not optimist about this season but we have our chances of course.

[qiangdade]

1. Olympiakos: 2 titles when their budget was not in the top top, and also played a lot of final fours and finals.

2. Maccabi: 3 titles. 2 when their budget was top and once as a big surprise when their budget was not at the same level.

3. Panathinaikos: 4 titles having a top budget.

4. CSKA: 3 titles and the final four record, having 30-40 million budget. I think they should have won more titles.

5. Baskonia: a five games final vs the best Kinder, 5 final fours, 4 in a row. The fourth team with more quarterfinals after CSKA, Olympiakos and PAO. Being never a top8 budget.

6th and 7th Real Madrid and Barcelona. With their top budgets they should have won more titles.

In ULEB era:

1. Pao - 4 titles
2. CSKA - 3 titles
- Maccabi - 3 titles
4. Oly - 2 titles
- Barca - 2 titles
6. Real - 1 title
- Fener - 1 title
- Virtus Bo - 1 title

The rest count shit, they have won nothing. Titles is everything, participations in comparison to budget is nothing in the history books.

[qiangdade]

But if you want a crazy prediction, Baskonia will win the euroleague in the next 10 years, and Vitoria will have a Final Four in the next 5 years.

I am following a maybe far-fetched scenario, based however on a series of logical steps and on real arguments. For example that money and a good coach has proven to guarantee success and that success and money are usually keeping a coach in the same team. As a result a good coach may remain in the same team with a high budget for many years meaning that they will win lots of titles as the current format is a guarantee that the best teams will reach the f4.

On the other hand you talk about a crazy prediction with no logical steps inbetween whatsoever. There is a difference.

Of course I don't know if my scenario will come to fruition but at least it is based on logical arguments.

But I see no reason why Vitoria should not host the f4.

[Adon]

Could we ever predict a multivariable situation ten years ahead? The answer is NO and there is a scientific explanation for that (see Chaos theory). It's the same as in economy, politics, wars, etc. The smartest people can predict just the most probable next step and they can become very rich and successful if they are correct. You make the assumption that almost everything will remain almost the same in the future but this was never the case in BB or in everything else.

[saras]

Money guarantee Obradovic.

With money all is easier.

How many no top8 budget teams played final four in the XXI century? Baskonia five times, Siena four times, Unicaja once, Partizan once (maybe the biggest surprise this century until now) and few more examples.

baskonia wasnt a team with low budget. scola,macijiauskas,prigioni,hansen,calderon,teleto vic,rakosevic,spliter etc. or even shengelia,bargniani etc. didnt play for free cause they supported baskonia from kids. they didnt get as much as they earned in their next contracts,but baskonia for sure had a top5 budget for many years (during those years they went 4 straight times at the f4). even malaga at 2007,i think they had a pretty big budget. half of the spanish national team played for malaga back then. siena's budget was also big and definetely top5 along panathinaikos,olympiakos,csska, and barcelona who had the biggest budgets those years.

the only teams that were not top8 in terms of budget and went to the f4 were partizan 2010 and kuban-baskonia at 2016

[Victorious]

Quite the contrary. Obradovic' supremacy is fading slowly. Simply because the game is changing. Obradovic still is quite old school when it comes to basketball. His game relies too much on playing tough borderline foul defense. While this always will remain important in Europe, I can't help but think that new factors are being introduces constantly. I have the impression that Obradovic tends to struggle a bit due to this.

Basically, Fener is a top 3 budget team. And during the last four seasons Obradovic won it once. With home court advantage that is. That is as many times as Bartzogas or Laso. So, I don't see a clear coach/succes pattern. Rather, I see a budget/succes pattern. Or better yet, a deep roster and best players succes pattern. Think of Spanoulis and Printezis carrying Olympiacos to two titles and four finals. Yet, during this phase they were coached by three different coaches. Yet, if you would have eliminated Spanoulis from the equation, the reds wouldn't have won any title.

Now, don't take me wrong. Obradovic is an excellent coach. But he is overrated in the sense that he can do miracles. With a top 3 budget, time, and a good fanbase he can win a EL title any moment.

[qiangdade]

Now, don't take me wrong. Obradovic is an excellent coach. But he is overrated in the sense that he can do miracles. With a top 3 budget, time, and a good fanbase he can win a EL title any moment.

That is a prerequisite in the scenario. Scenario says Fener continues to have a top budget and Zoc stays there. Ot he finds another team with a top budget (I believe however that Fener will continue having a top budget).

[qiangdade]

Could we ever predict a multivariable situation ten years ahead? The answer is NO and there is a scientific explanation for that (see Chaos theory). It's the same as in economy, politics, wars, etc. The smartest people can predict just the most probable next step and they can become very rich and successful if they are correct. You make the assumption that almost everything will remain almost the same in the future but this was never the case in BB or in everything else.

I am making a guess. Based on some logical assumptions.

I enjoy the art of making wild guesses and what-ifs.

It's fun. Of course I will not bet my house on it.