Have we just now entered the real Obradovic Era?

[Erkan12]

Quite the contrary. Obradovic' supremacy is fading slowly. Simply because the game is changing. Obradovic still is quite old school when it comes to basketball. His game relies too much on playing tough borderline foul defense. While this always will remain important in Europe, I can't help but think that new factors are being introduces constantly. I have the impression that Obradovic tends to struggle a bit due to this.

Basically, Fener is a top 3 budget team. And during the last four seasons Obradovic won it once. With home court advantage that is. That is as many times as Bartzogas or Laso. So, I don't see a clear coach/succes pattern. Rather, I see a budget/succes pattern. Or better yet, a deep roster and best players succes pattern. Think of Spanoulis and Printezis carrying Olympiacos to two titles and four finals. Yet, during this phase they were coached by three different coaches. Yet, if you would have eliminated Spanoulis from the equation, the reds wouldn't have won any title.

Now, don't take me wrong. Obradovic is an excellent coach. But he is overrated in the sense that he can do miracles. With a top 3 budget, time, and a good fanbase he can win a EL title any moment.

How many Euroleague championship Pao had before Obradovic? 1.
How many Euroleague championship Pao has after Obradovic? 6.

He is clearly a big time changer when it comes to club histories.

Fener had the same budget for 7 years, and we only played 1 single playoff in the entire 7 seasons. Obra came and with the same budget we played 2 final four (one of them is final) and 1 championship. He changed everything. Also Madrid and Oly had championships and final fours before so Laso and Bartzo had advantages by being on a more experienced clubs, Fener had 0 final four experience before Obra.

As long as 3 seconds defensive rule doesn't exist in the Europe, Obra's system will remain perfect.

[jonga]

Could we ever predict a multivariable situation ten years ahead? The answer is NO and there is a scientific explanation for that (see Chaos theory). It's the same as in economy, politics, wars, etc. The smartest people can predict just the most probable next step and they can become very rich and successful if they are correct. You make the assumption that almost everything will remain almost the same in the future but this was never the case in BB or in everything else.

Totally agree.

baskonia wasnt a team with low budget. scola,macijiauskas,prigioni,hansen,calderon,teleto vic,rakosevic,spliter etc. or even shengelia,bargniani etc. didnt play for free cause they supported baskonia from kids. they didnt get as much as they earned in their next contracts,but baskonia for sure had a top5 budget for many years (during those years they went 4 straight times at the f4). even malaga at 2007,i think they had a pretty big budget. half of the spanish national team played for malaga back then. siena's budget was also big and definetely top5 along panathinaikos,olympiakos,csska, and barcelona who had the biggest budgets those years.

the only teams that were not top8 in terms of budget and went to the f4 were partizan 2010 and kuban-baskonia at 2016

Baskonia was not a team with low budget, that is right, no one said that Baskonia was a low budget. Your illusions about Baskonia being a top budget are quite laughable. Baskonia and Siena top5 budget

When you have for example Splitter who signed a 10 years contract with 15 years, then you can have a top center earning less money. That was one of the keys of that Baskonia, they signed a lot of great young players. Yes, they had money and they could sign some important players, but never was a top8 budget.

By the way, when Baskonia played five games vs the best Kinder, and that team with homecourt advantage was invincible, better than the best CSKA. Baskonia had in that days less budget than some greek teams. So to play that long series winning the first game in the Palamalagutti, with only one PG (Elmer Bennett because Corchiani was injured) is IMO one of the most surprising seasons of the euroleague history. That season Baskonia eliminated without homecourt advantage three greek teams. First season of Dusko Ivanovic, Dusko at its best. And that was the first ULEB euroleague and the only one without final four.

[jonga]

I am following a maybe far-fetched scenario, based however on a series of logical steps and on real arguments. For example that money and a good coach has proven to guarantee success and that success and money are usually keeping a coach in the same team. As a result a good coach may remain in the same team with a high budget for many years meaning that they will win lots of titles as the current format is a guarantee that the best teams will reach the f4.

On the other hand you talk about a crazy prediction with no logical steps inbetween whatsoever. There is a difference.

Of course I don't know if my scenario will come to fruition but at least it is based on logical arguments.

But I see no reason why Vitoria should not host the f4.

My "crazy prediction" is more possible than your "logical prediction".

Your arguments are not logical. But the worst of them is to think that saras will win a lot of titles with Barcelona, first we don't know if will sign for them, and then Barcelona is a team which only won the euroleague twice in their history.

Do you want logical arguments? There is a team which have one of the best managers, and play most of the seasons quarterfinals and 6 of 18 years the final four (or the final in playoffs) and did not win the title never. After some economical problems the team started again doing the right things the last seasons. I guess there is a chance for winning a single title the next 10 years. I see more chances than "being only 3 coaches winning the 90% of the titles the next 20 years".

Do you want some "crazy steps"? Baskonia will organize the final four one of the next years, will increase their budget and will win the title because have maybe the best organisation in Europe. The team is changing their roster every season because the budget, and still play quarterfinals. In the next years will have a higher budget, will not sell their best players and will win the title.

The rest count shit, they have won nothing. Titles is everything, participations in comparison to budget is nothing in the history books.

A lot of people celebrate to play the final four like a trophy, for that people the history books count shit. Do you think a CSKA fan is happier winning the title than a Baskonia fan playing the final four? For example Zalgiris, imagine if they play the final four, even to play the quarterfinals is something amazing. And I am talking about a team which won titles in the past.

[janketa]

Quite the contrary. Obradovic' supremacy is fading slowly. Simply because the game is changing. Obradovic still is quite old school when it comes to basketball. His game relies too much on playing tough borderline foul defense. While this always will remain important in Europe, I can't help but think that new factors are being introduces constantly. I have the impression that Obradovic tends to struggle a bit due to this.

Basically, Fener is a top 3 budget team. And during the last four seasons Obradovic won it once. With home court advantage that is. That is as many times as Bartzogas or Laso. So, I don't see a clear coach/succes pattern. Rather, I see a budget/succes pattern. Or better yet, a deep roster and best players succes pattern. Think of Spanoulis and Printezis carrying Olympiacos to two titles and four finals. Yet, during this phase they were coached by three different coaches. Yet, if you would have eliminated Spanoulis from the equation, the reds wouldn't have won any title.

Now, don't take me wrong. Obradovic is an excellent coach. But he is overrated in the sense that he can do miracles. With a top 3 budget, time, and a good fanbase he can win a EL title any moment.

You should know better then most of us Obradovic is the best coach in Europe and will be for long time, even when he leave Fener I will repeat the same.
He is more then just excellent coach. Ivkovic, Maljkovic, Pesic are excellent coaches from the same Aca Nikolic school, but Obra is more then that. He went one step further and made his own system. That is not just tactics and game plan, but many many strategic little and big things that he involves in his job.
He is from old school, you are right, but this what Fener played against Baskonia is all but not old school. Game plan was example of modern basketball regarding both offense and defense.

[qiangdade]

Could we ever predict a multivariable situation ten years ahead? The answer is NO and there is a scientific explanation for that (see Chaos theory). It's the same as in economy, politics, wars, etc. The smartest people can predict just the most probable next step and they can become very rich and successful if they are correct. You make the assumption that almost everything will remain almost the same in the future but this was never the case in BB or in everything else.

I am making a guess. Based on some logical assumptions.

I enjoy the art of making wild guesses and what-ifs.

It's fun. Of course I will not bet my house on it.

[qiangdade]

Now, don't take me wrong. Obradovic is an excellent coach. But he is overrated in the sense that he can do miracles. With a top 3 budget, time, and a good fanbase he can win a EL title any moment.

That is a prerequisite in the scenario. Scenario says Fener continues to have a top budget and Zoc stays there. Ot he finds another team with a top budget (I believe however that Fener will continue having a top budget).

[Victorious]

Quite the contrary. Obradovic' supremacy is fading slowly. Simply because the game is changing. Obradovic still is quite old school when it comes to basketball. His game relies too much on playing tough borderline foul defense. While this always will remain important in Europe, I can't help but think that new factors are being introduces constantly. I have the impression that Obradovic tends to struggle a bit due to this.

Basically, Fener is a top 3 budget team. And during the last four seasons Obradovic won it once. With home court advantage that is. That is as many times as Bartzogas or Laso. So, I don't see a clear coach/succes pattern. Rather, I see a budget/succes pattern. Or better yet, a deep roster and best players succes pattern. Think of Spanoulis and Printezis carrying Olympiacos to two titles and four finals. Yet, during this phase they were coached by three different coaches. Yet, if you would have eliminated Spanoulis from the equation, the reds wouldn't have won any title.

Now, don't take me wrong. Obradovic is an excellent coach. But he is overrated in the sense that he can do miracles. With a top 3 budget, time, and a good fanbase he can win a EL title any moment.

[saras]

Money guarantee Obradovic.

With money all is easier.

How many no top8 budget teams played final four in the XXI century? Baskonia five times, Siena four times, Unicaja once, Partizan once (maybe the biggest surprise this century until now) and few more examples.

baskonia wasnt a team with low budget. scola,macijiauskas,prigioni,hansen,calderon,teleto vic,rakosevic,spliter etc. or even shengelia,bargniani etc. didnt play for free cause they supported baskonia from kids. they didnt get as much as they earned in their next contracts,but baskonia for sure had a top5 budget for many years (during those years they went 4 straight times at the f4). even malaga at 2007,i think they had a pretty big budget. half of the spanish national team played for malaga back then. siena's budget was also big and definetely top5 along panathinaikos,olympiakos,csska, and barcelona who had the biggest budgets those years.

the only teams that were not top8 in terms of budget and went to the f4 were partizan 2010 and kuban-baskonia at 2016

[Adon]

Could we ever predict a multivariable situation ten years ahead? The answer is NO and there is a scientific explanation for that (see Chaos theory). It's the same as in economy, politics, wars, etc. The smartest people can predict just the most probable next step and they can become very rich and successful if they are correct. You make the assumption that almost everything will remain almost the same in the future but this was never the case in BB or in everything else.

[qiangdade]

But if you want a crazy prediction, Baskonia will win the euroleague in the next 10 years, and Vitoria will have a Final Four in the next 5 years.

I am following a maybe far-fetched scenario, based however on a series of logical steps and on real arguments. For example that money and a good coach has proven to guarantee success and that success and money are usually keeping a coach in the same team. As a result a good coach may remain in the same team with a high budget for many years meaning that they will win lots of titles as the current format is a guarantee that the best teams will reach the f4.

On the other hand you talk about a crazy prediction with no logical steps inbetween whatsoever. There is a difference.

Of course I don't know if my scenario will come to fruition but at least it is based on logical arguments.

But I see no reason why Vitoria should not host the f4.

[qiangdade]

1. Olympiakos: 2 titles when their budget was not in the top top, and also played a lot of final fours and finals.

2. Maccabi: 3 titles. 2 when their budget was top and once as a big surprise when their budget was not at the same level.

3. Panathinaikos: 4 titles having a top budget.

4. CSKA: 3 titles and the final four record, having 30-40 million budget. I think they should have won more titles.

5. Baskonia: a five games final vs the best Kinder, 5 final fours, 4 in a row. The fourth team with more quarterfinals after CSKA, Olympiakos and PAO. Being never a top8 budget.

6th and 7th Real Madrid and Barcelona. With their top budgets they should have won more titles.

In ULEB era:

1. Pao - 4 titles
2. CSKA - 3 titles
- Maccabi - 3 titles
4. Oly - 2 titles
- Barca - 2 titles
6. Real - 1 title
- Fener - 1 title
- Virtus Bo - 1 title

The rest count shit, they have won nothing. Titles is everything, participations in comparison to budget is nothing in the history books.

[janketa]

Obra will always be hot candidate for the title, so as Fener. I don't think that only three teams will be contenders for the title, at least 7 teams will win titles in next 20 years.
CSKA, Real, Fener, Oly, Pao, Maccabi and Barca.
We are happy that Fener is among powerhouses and we have our chances. This is bullshit that someones wrote about economy in Turkey linking that with Fener future. In 80 milions country we are the club with the most fans and rising interest for basketball. Turkish economy is stronger then Spanish but much more money(x5) is invested in Spanish clubs then in Turkey. So, there will be always space for investing in Fener as success story. Maybe not 30 milion every season but I doubt that budget will ever drop under 20 milions in any case.

Obradovic era doesn't start with change of the competition but in the moment when he started his coaching career.
As he said in many interviews he will continue to do what he knows the best as long as he enjoy in his job. I think he will stay in Fener next five years and he could take one or two titles more. I am not optimist about this season but we have our chances of course.

[jonga]

Baskonia were not a low budget team when theh are Tau Ceremica. This year Jonga said budget will be higher but he doesnt admit ehat he said

Is it a better heroic story when you show your budget lower. It is always better to tell the truth. Galatasaray would do that they say their players budget and our whole budget when they compare the budget. How pathetic it is lol. Making the budget diff big tp normalization of loss.

Some people don't know nothing about Baskonia's history.

Scola was signed when he had 17 years, Nocioni had 19, Calderon, Garbajosa or Splitter had 15 years when Baskonia signed them. Who was Teletovic when he came to Vitoria? He came from Belgium. Prigioni played in Fuenlabrada an Alicante before Baskonia. Macijauskas came from Lietuvos. Do you think this players were top salaries? They are some of the best players in the "Tau Ceramica era".

Baskonia never was top8 budget team, I am not saying that Baskonia have the budget of Crvna Zvezda.

About the budget, the rumours were that the budget would increase but then, Larkin and Hanga out, Marcelinho and Garino in, no bench PF all the season. It is clear that the budget is similar. Janning have been one of the best signings, Janning! Nowadays would Janning play in a top budget team? And I like a lot this player.

[Cemalex]

Baskonia were not a low budget team when theh are Tau Ceremica. This year Jonga said budget will be higher but he doesnt admit ehat he said

Is it a better heroic story when you show your budget lower. It is always better to tell the truth. Galatasaray would do that they say their players budget and our whole budget when they compare the budget. How pathetic it is lol. Making the budget diff big tp normalization of loss.

[jonga]

About the theme of the topic, I don't think Itoudis, Obradovic and Saras will win most of the titles the next 20 years.

Itoudis is a good coach but the key in CSKA is not him, before him CSKA also was succesful. CSKA will win more titles if their budget remains high, with or whithout Itoudis.

Obradovic will win more titles, or no, nobody knows, his stats in PAO are something amazing (5 titles in 13 years), but if Fenerbahce is not the next champion, it would be 1 of 5 having a top budget. Then all depend of the budget, as turk-jugoslav said, Obradovic will not coach Fenerbahce if the budget goes down.

Saras is nowadays coaching Zalgiris. If Saras is the next coach of Barcelona and have a top budget, nobody knows if he will win a title, Barcelona also had very good coaches, and only won twice in all the history.

But if you want a crazy prediction, Baskonia will win the euroleague in the next 10 years, and Vitoria will have a Final Four in the next 5 years.