EuroBasket 2022 Power Rankings

[Serbian_Layup]

I think upcoming EuroBasket is going to be very interesting in terms that it might introduce some new Euro stars or high quality players for various teams (like Wagner brothers for Germany, Jokubaitis for Lithuania, Italy have couple of really high profile prospects like Banchero, Spagnolo, France with Wembanyiama, but probably still too early for some of these players. Then, there is also Turkey, they have high hopes in Sengun, and Spain will look to give extended role to Alocen, maybe even Nunez.). I wonder how is this going to impact the overall hierarchy of powerhouses in the future. It seems like some teams that were on decline for some time, like Italy, Germany, Turkey, and maybe Lithuania, are finding new resources which might help them achieve new ambitions. As for others, I don't expect many changes in the rosters of Serbia, France and Greece, roles of their leading players will remain the same.

[Straight forward]

It's a bummer you didn't give your own list or you wanted to be implicit and abstract discussion?

To me it goes like that:

1. Serbia
2. France
3. Spain
4. Slovenia (+Doncic present)

5-6. Lithuania, Greece
6-5. Lithuania, Greece

7-9. Germany, Turkey, Italy
7-9. Germany, Turkey, Italy
7-9. Germany, Turkey, Italy

10. Czech Rep.
11. Croatia
12. Israel
13. Belgium
14. Georgia

15. Russia
16. Estonia (Kerr prevailing)
17. Poland
18. Bosnia
19. Ukriane
20. Great Britain

21. Hungary
22. Netherlands
23. Finland
24. Bulgaria

[Toruko]

Sengun was yesterday, today is Yurtseven

[Serbian_Layup]

I wrote somewhat long post that got deleted somehow, so I will try to write in more details in other occasion. However, what I'm interested in is how those players I mentioned in the first post change the structure and ceiling of their teams.

[Toruko]

I couldnt get Serbian_Layup quite well. Do you want to talk about the impact of the new ones or do you want an opinion to the power rankings? Ok then I will give a ranking and give arguments about why.

First of all there isnt a Spain team who will dominate the tournaments anymore which is good.

For me the strongest team but not unbeatable is France. Its a quite limited team offensively if they put Albicy or Ntilikina (idc if I write it right or wrong). I havent really watched the younger play maker in the NBA but considering both mentioned and Gobert who cant create for himself at all, they will again depend fully on De Colo and Fournier but on the defensive end they are by far the best team. Especially after Batums revival they have all elements being a great defensive team.

Despite having disappointed me Serbia is the second team which I would bet on but there are several questions which must be answered after the 2 last disappointing tournaments.

-1. Will Jokic come and will he be motivated?
-2. Are the Serbs able to use him near to his potential? And I agree he doesnt work on four.
-3. Serbian players normally get injured very often. Who will be available at that time? This includes Bogdanovic, Teodosic, Micic and Milutinov.
-4. Marjanovic and Petrusev problem. Taking one with you is ok but if Serbia ends up with them it will be a huge problem.

Nevertheless Serbia has all elements to be a great team but they are by far not that frightening anymore.

This was tier one.

Tier two a includes
-Spain
-Italy
-Turkey (with Larkin)
-Germany

Tier two b
-Greece
-Lithuania
-Slovenia (with Doncic)

Tier 3:
Czech Republik
Georgia
Israel

Spain lost the Gasols once and for all and Rubio also declared he wont participate in the upcomming Eurobasket. Spain is still Spain but many players have over their age limitations. Nunez, Garuba, Alocen etc are good names but we dont know how they are gonna react and there are still many restrictions. Garuba after having played Euroleague playoffs he cant find minutes with trashy Rockets due to his offensive limitations etc. The Hernangomez bros are also a question mark for me without a Marc Gasol. Still Spain is Spain.

Italy really popped up with an amazing talent pool. Polonara, Fonteccio, Mannion, Donut, Spissu etc. who came out of nowhere and now Paolo Banchero with some vets. This is an amazing pool with will to fight and win as we know from belgrade. The center position might be a bit worrisome but thats it.

Germany I always observed with a critical eye like the Lithuanians. Franz popping up is a plus for them but they shouldnt be overestimated just because they won against a Croatia without play maker and structure and an overaged Russia and Brazil team. It was the easiest group and Germany didnt look solid at all.

Questions about the German teams are.

-1. Will Schröder participate with the team after his one year deal with Boston?
-2. Is it maybe better that he remains out of the team because he is the worst decision maker in Europe. Is the quality enough in the both guard positions Maodo Lo, Ismet Akpinar?

The rest of the spots are deep and they have good guys but the German team has its flaws.

Slovenias impressive run in the Olympics honored but we are talking about a one guy team with many many CL - Eurocup players. A really impressive offensive team but they lack many things like bigs and forwards. Sure on a good shooting day they can beat you but they are not that strong also with Doncic.

Team Turkey: very young team with impressive pop ups this season that will again be younger. Its quite difficult to tell the ceiling but it will surely be one of the strongest Turkish teams.

The main problem: play making, short guys who cant handle the ball and take pressure against young talented guys with few experience. With Larkin I am sure the team will have a level up even if he doesnt score a point which is impossible he can give structure and confidence in situations the team loses the momentum. Except this with Akay and a very good Sipahi this season there will be enough defense and play making that the team needs from the bench.

The good:
with Larkin and Akay there are the right guys to get the max out of our 3 centers. Yurtseven as a big body against strong guys for pick and roll coverages and defense , Sengün who is stronger and one year NBA experience and there is also Sanli who is a reliable hand from outside and someone who gives the both others the possibility to recover during the tournament. Especially Yurtsevens defense against against Embiid gave me a confidence boost.

The bad: Turkish teams problems were always Osmans and Korkmaz ups and downs in terms of play making and scoring. Larkin can solve the problem of both and Korkmaz has shown that he can create on NBA level for himself and others despite his 2 month bad period of time. If Osman doesnt need to create and Korkmaz to score the team will reach its ceiling.

The only problem is still the power forward position. Ilyasovas time has passed. Although it is not the perfect solution we can fill the gap with Sengün and Osman as a part time job and there will also be Sadik Emir Kabaca who has been playing a great season but also with ups and downs. He plays at least good defense.

The ugly: Without Larkin we will give away half of our potential despite the new options. I am not really sure if Ene will be able to be brave and take the young ones. I mean he saw that with Larkin we need some size.

questions that needs to be cleared:
-1. Mahmutoglu and Tuncer vs. Akay or Sipahi or Bitim or Hazer.
-2. Persuading Osman not to be the go to guy after 5 years action.
-3. Sengün and Yurt7 playing together.
-4. Biberovic question (he turned down the invitation of the Bosnian league and will be 21 this February.) Good scorer but poor defender
-5 Adem Bona question. The last guy who is needed for every matchups. Is he an option?

This team is deep and talented but inexperienced. Difficult to see the ceiling but with the quality everything less than the quarter finals is a bad result. Good balance of front - and backcourt.

The poor coaching of Ene is a big question marks during games. We will see what he can achieve with enough prep time.

Lithuania:
pros: Jokubaitis will be able to solve the creativity problems to a certain degree, bringing Kalnietis from the bench will give a certain depth and can create better looks for the wings.
question marks? Shooting percentage from outside. Creating spacing for the twin towers
contra: rim protection especially when JV is benched. Domantas Sabonis cant defend without help,
playing the twin towers together with some question marks.
big problem backcourt defense: No plus defender except Kalnietis who is too old.
decision between offense and defense.

conclusion: is in a tough group and should trying to avoid Spain and Turkey. Ceiling is the quarter finals. Even Bosnia with a full roster could end up being a big problem.

[Straight forward]

You mention Mert Akay as some real deal thing for Eurobasket, the guy who not only yet did not prove anything anywhere, but didn't play a single game for a year right? That's a bit out of hand...Maybe providing something at any adequate club level would be a good idea first?

[Toruko]

You mention Mert Akay as some real deal thing for Eurobasket, the guy who not only yet did not prove anything anywhere, but didn't play a single game for a year right? That's a bit out of hand...Maybe providing something at any adequate club level would be a good idea first?

No he has a blank cheque. When we lose then its with him and not without him. He doesnt need to prove something because there is Larkin and probably some other guys (too many to count)

[Straight forward]

No he has a blank cheque. When we lose then its with him and not without him. He doesnt need to prove something because there is Larkin and probably some other guys (too many to count)

I really doubt he'll even be in Eurobasket. Completely wild idea at the moment.

[Toruko]

I really doubt he'll even be in Eurobasket. Completely wild idea at the moment.

Well, we will see. It will be Sipahi or Akay. So much is sure. The team is craving for someone who can make plays and gives some size. He is the future of the team, everyone knows it but there is a chance that Ene the coach is dumb enough to take the secure option.

[Straight forward]

OK, my take on Serbian_Layup perspective. I will name the NTs that will face biggest transformations:

1. Spain. If Spain won't have Rubio, Mirotic, Rodriguez, Lull it will be a big and final hit to this dominant dynasty. Gasol Bros all gone, but Rubio alone was 40% of this team in 2019 and 2021, his loss can't be compensated with all respect to Herna Bros, Garuba, Alocen and others. I was putting Spain at 3rd spot with an idea that they would gather all vets like Mirotic, Rodriguez, Lull, maybe Fernandez, but likely we won't see the majority of them and Spain might barely be medal contender. Potential substantial decline (for a while till young gems get ready).

2. Israel. Avdija, Yam Madar (one of brightest young Euro PGs), T. Blatt, J.Zoosman, R. Sorkin. After a long time very competitive team, might even make some noise. Radical improvement.

3. Germany adds Wagners bros as stars, O. De Silva, Bonga, Hartenstein. Substantial improvement.

4. Lithuania. Only one, but absolutely vital and game changing addition of this season's sensation Jokubaitis. The brightest young European point guard in the world this season. If Lithuania lacked one thing for most, that is aggression (scoring, facilitating) from perimeter and Rokas is pretty much ready to provide that. Filling the crucial position is absolutely vital, specially that we have strongest duet of frontcourt in Europe. Substantial improvement.

5. Italy. Mannion is one of most brightest young Euro PGs, Spagnolo as strong guad newcomers may make make real noise and young superstar Banchero (probably too soon, but might be dangerous already). Guards or super versatile forwards addition is always most radical, so Italy improves substantially if not radically soon (with blossom of Banchero).

6. Turkey. Addition of Sengun, Yurtseven improves frontcourt. If Sengun shows signs of being transcendent in FIBA then substantial improvement, but probably one or two years too soon for Sengun.

[Katastroika]

Madar looks to me like SG more than PG. This is conclusion of BB analysts here, too. Žoc uses him also in combo lineups lately as 2 more than as playmaker. His biggest strength is very good shot. He struggles as PG a lot under physical pressure as he is lightweight.

[Straight forward]

Madar looks to me like SG more than PG. This is conclusion of BB analysts here, too. Žoc uses him also in combo lineups lately as 2 more than as playmaker. His biggest strength is very good shot. He struggles as PG a lot under physical pressure as he is lightweight.

Nevertheless utilizing his limited PT well it seems in Eurocup, PER 36 he scores 17,6pts which is good. If he can get tougher and more explosive in the contact basketball it should boost his presence substantially. But not all players get there, some remains rather soft and finesse players. We'll see, but he has swagger, has talent, now only needs to get stronger, tougher to reach really high level.

[Katastroika]

Nevertheless utilizing his limited PT well it seems in Eurocup, PER 36 he scores 17,6pts which is good. If he can get tougher and more explosive in the contact basketball it should boost his presence substantially. But not all players get there, some remains rather soft and finesse players. We'll see, but he has swagger, has talent, now only needs to get stronger, tougher to reach really high level.

Maybe I was not precise enough, sorry, if so. Of course he has talent. But he has not enough talent for being a point guard. He lacks fundamentals in pick and roll, hand offs and vision. Flashiness cannot compensate that even on way higher level than his. He will be a very good shooter and energetic machine for sure. And he has working spirit, it seems.

[Serbian_Layup]

As of today, counting on the best players of each team playing upcoming EuroBasket (which is probably not going to happen), I see it something like this:

Tier one: Serbia, France, Slovenia

As for Serbia, Toruko said something like Serbia doesn't make frightening impression at all. I don't know if it's said in general sense, or compared to past time? Anyway, I would just like this team to play up to their potential. If we can throw a lineup Micic-Bogdanovic-Lucic-Kalinic-Jokic and play up to their potential, maybe 'frightening' is not the best word, but I can tell you this lineup gives me great vibes. NBA MVP, Euroleague MVP, two modern forwards who play both ways, and a shooting guard who can do everything. I don't know if that's frightening but it's surely going to give a lot of headache to opposing coaches trying to figure out how to stop them. There is also more than capable bench, which in my opinion would be something like Teo-Jaramaz-Guduric-Bjelica (Smailagic)-Milutinov. Petrusev as a third option at C, I can even see him getting minutes at PF with Jokic at C depending on matchup. Still thinking what could Nedovic bring and how to fit him in without sacrificing right balance between offense/defense. Going further on the depth chart Andjusic is a nice shooter and Avramovic can bring a lot of energy, but if those mentioned players are healthy they won't be in the roster. I think Pesic will take conservative approach because he is aiming here for the highest result. He didn't take over NT at 72 just to be a participant. This probably means Jovic will have to wait for at least another year. We will see how Pokusevski will look by the end of the season, but he will definitely dedicate at least one more off season to work on his body and shooting. From basketball standpoint, I think this team has everything when it comes to offense/defense, the main challenge for Pesic will be to have enough time to make everything work, find proper roles, set strong principles of ball distribution, and incorporate Jokic as the main fulcrum of the offense. Kalinic and Lucic, for example, are perfect fits next to Jokic at forward position, great off ball players, don't need ball in their hands all the time, constantly moving and cutting, efficient scorers and excellent at using mismatches. Couldn't ask for better fits next to Jokic at this level. They give balance to this team and will allow Jokic space to work in the low post and facilitate from the high post. Micic will have to do a better job at facilitating a little bit more than looking to drive and score. It won't be hard to understand that situation in this team is different than the one at Efes. I think health and possible lack of time for preparation are the only real obstacles that could hinder potential of this team.

France is obviously great defensive team at 3-5 position. The trio of Batum-Yabusele-Gobert is really something to deal with, especially at FIBA court. 1-2 isn't that good defensively and those are thier most important positions offensively, though Ntilikina is a pretty good defender and Luwawu is fairly aggressive. Good thing for France is that De Colo and Fournier will get help from Okobo offensively so that they don't have to rely too much on Heurtel if he doesn't have a good day. Not much of creaton offensively, but couple of gifted scorers who can just ISO and get tough baskets. Defense will be their calling card almost certainly. Any team meeting them in knockout stage will need a good shooting day, because I don't see much of room to drive against Batum-Gabusele-Gobert on the court at the same time. I'm not sure what's going on with Maledon and Hayes. Hayes is playing a lot, but doesn't seem convincing while Maledon completely fell out of rotation. Wembanyiama is a generational talent, but probably too young. I just remembered, they have couple of other guys pretty decent at C, that guy Fall from Olympiacos is very capable, not ot menton that he is 220cm. It's just ridiculous how mach size they have at 3-5 position, they can cover basically the whole court. I think they are even stronger than the last couple of years with addition and bigger roles of Okobo and Yabusele, who will bring another dimension in both ways.

Slovenia is pretty much the same. I put them in tier one because they are defending champions even though they still seem kinda one dimensional. This season Glass is emerging as a nice versatile shooter with really soft hand. He fits in perfectly with their offensive mindset and alongside Doncic. Defense though is not at the same level. Everything else is basically the same, there is no team that one player elevates that much like Doncic elevates Slovenia. Also, it will be interesting to see if they can repeat the same energy they've had past couple of years. That's also a big factor in their success. I guess Tobey is still their option as naturalized player, which is fine, with him they can play all 5 out and wait for Doncic’s creation. Dangerous but closer to tiers below than to Serbia or France.

Tier 2 (this one is tricky): Spain, Lithuania, Greece

To be honest, I feel like Spain could go anywhere right now from bust to contender. It's a strange feeling, because for the first time in like 20 years Spain probably won't have a single elite player at any position, if Rubio is definitely out and Rodriguez retired form national team. However, I had to put them here because they have great mentality which won't be lost that easily and which will help them make smooth transition to some new expectations and kind of rebuilding process. I couldn't put them in tier 1 because I feel Serbia and France will have an obvious advantage over them as of today, but they are never to be underestimated, at least until they show that they are vulnerable. As for their new guys, Alocen is probably getting extended role, and who knows, they might throw Nunez into fire already. Garuba for sure is going to help them a lot defensively, and we will see if Mirotic will commit to them, I don't think he is much into playing for Spain, I might be wrong. At the moment I don't see anyone out of those younger players who can immediately make an impact. But like I said, until I see them fail, they remain contender. The drop of talent compared to last two decades is obvious.

Lithuania will look better with Jokubaitis, no doubt about that. I still expect that their coach will build around Valanciunas and Sabonis but it's Jokubaitis who will maximize their potential. If you have quality guards (Jokubaitis and Grigonis) and centers (Val and Sabonis), there is automatic assumption to make a good basketball team. Now, I still think it's better to split minutes between Valanciunas and Sabonis rather than playing them together. Especially now when they have Jokubaitis who is going to need space to slash and drive. In perfect world for Lithuania, Valanciunas or Sabonis will be able to space the floor. As for forwards, they seem to have lost a bit of talent there, Ulanovas is not convincing thus far, Kuzminskas is inconsistent, maybe shift Giedraitis to SF but I don't how that works for their defense. Sedekerskis seems like a guy who can bring toughness and defense at PF, but in general 3-4 leaves something to desire. However, Jokubaitis is enough of the reason for optimism, at least for playing more efficient and meaningful style of basketball. I think they are going to be better than in the last couple of years.

Greece has been underwhelming for some time and I honestly don't know if they belong in this tier, but I just can't envision them keep struggling with Giannis in their team. They don't have a lot of young guys who can make an immediate impact, but that kid Kalaitzakis seems to be having a good season at Lietkabelis, loooks like someone who can help them right away. Calathes, Sloukas, Giannis (who is coming probably without any pressure since winning NBA) are able to make something together, but I can also see them losing without much of a surprise to any team from tier 3. It’s worth mentioning that Giannis has been playing at C a lot this season for Bucks, and he has been pretty good in that role too. Maybe apply the same in Greek team? That would be interesting and might solve some spacing problems for them with Giannis constantly in a mismatch situation offensively. A few good shooters would do wonders for this team.

Tier 3: Italy, Germany, Turkey

I think teams from this tier are not far from teams in tier 2 and I can see them having 50/50 games with teams from upper tiers.

Italy is on the rise, definitely. Aside from Banchero, they have a plethora of young talents showing big promise. Especially Spagnolo, who has been playing great in Italian A league. He seems to be a more rational, maybe even upgraded version of Belinelli. Even if they are still somewhat weak at C, they have couple of tough forwards and they are getting better depth at almost every position. Mannion, Spissu, Pajola (excellent defender) are fitting well together at PG, couple of good forwards, I suppose Galinari is still available, couple of stretch centers…capable team that can beat anyone. They have much better balance between offense and defense, tougher and more competitive than in some past years.

Germany is a team to keep an eye on. Wagner bros, especially Franz, are giving them nice depth. Franz is a really good defender, and very capable offensively. He can shoot, pass, drive, use size to his advantage. I see him being very impactful for Germany, they haven't had such a forward in years. They are very well filled in each position, if they find right chemistry I can see them being a positive surprise. A good version of Schroeder would be great for them, but I think they can still be very good even without him. Theiss and Voightman are a good pair of centers, plus Hartenstein, De Silva has been great for Alba at PF, Wagner and hopefully Zipser at forward also very nice, Lo and Schroeder at PG...that's a lot of length, good size, quick guards who can penetrate and pass to shooters. If they mesh well together, that’s going to be a team to avoid.

Turkey has been underwhelming for years, but they are moving forward in regard to their talent pool. Sengun is a big talent, and actually might be extremely important to Turkey as he seems to be a point center who can facilitate and understand the game. That's something they have been missing for years and Sengun might be the player who will give a sense to their team basketball. They will probably except a lot from Larkin, as well as from Osman and Korkmaz. What they need is a real floor general with good decision making to make players like Osman and Korkmaz even better and make their life easier. They still lack that kind of player, and that's why I think that playing through Sengun, even though he is too young and a little bit foul and turnover prone, is thier best chance to change their dynamic of the game and play a more meaningful and less predictable basketball. With that being said, I can't put them above teams from tier 2 until they show improvement.

I don't think any of other teams can make an upset over these teams, but there certainly are good and well coached teams like Czechs, Belgium, Georgia. I forgot to mention Croatia, they still have talent, by names they are a lot better than what they are showing but it's a question whether they can prove it. Also, Bosnia has talent, especially in the frontcourt.

My approach is a bit conservative while ranking these teams, but I think upcoming EuroBasket might be a chance for some teams to make a huge step forward and maybe make life a lot tougher for some usual favorites.

[Straight forward]

Totally agree with this, Serbian_Layup. Specially if Spain will truly lack stars in Rubio, Mirotic, Rodriguez.

But it also makes B group crazy. I think Franz Wagner will be different maker for Germany. The feeling is that he either explode big time or will be somewhat disappointing, but my guts saying that he will be punishing opponents. It will be a mess in the group cause all France, Slovenia, Lithuania, Germany seem to be ready for some big boys action, and when we look outside these there's still Bosnia which with Nurkic, Musa and other quality players.

Lithuania had good draw in 2013, 2014, 2015 and also 2017. But lately we are really suffering - 2019 (AUS, FRA, CAN), 2021 (SLO), 2022 (FRA, SLO, GER). The best way to come out of this to win something and to be in the first seed prior 2023 WC draw, but it looks a heck of tough road at the moment.