Filipino Players in Foreign Leagues

[DAdmiral]

^
That's super difficult question to predict . it comes down to a numbers game . You and I know when selecting the complete roster many times it's really not about who is simply better .. or even who is good enough to make the team . ( Kai i think is good enough to be in an NBA roster, that is not the question) , but the question is do you pick him over the others ( note including all the FA currently in the NBA ) , no team is obligated to sign a rookie to a contract (draft not included) .
Let's just say Kai is in the bottom half of the 50 to 100 new draft prospects, so it's anybody's guess if he will make it . but obviously a betting man would put his money on the higher ranked players ( those in 50 to 70 range)

BTW the Spurs are in a rebuild and their top draft and stash player was Luka Semanic, who honestly had very high upside, when final roster for the season was decided they let him go , (huh ? ) why ? and they gave the spot to a FA , Bates Diop.. they essentially said they don't want to further invest in Luka's upside after stashing him for 2 years. why am i saying this... it goes to show that teams don't simply automtically fill up their roster with future upside prospects , there are level to this

[Trae Yong]

Assuming sir Dave that an NBA team had the second-worst record in the NBA at the end of the regular season, yet they really don’t have much roster space to get filled in the NBA Draft and the General manager has said that only a couple of roster spots are available for next season and they have two second-round draft picks and very interested of Kai Sotto. Do you think that NBA team will not employ a draft-and-stash strategy with those selections and not pick Kai as one of the two second-round draft picks for their team?

too many what ifs ... for one Kai is not even in the Top 60 of the mock drafts

let's just have a bet straight up - Kai won't be drafted this year - winner stays here and loser leaves, game?

[Trae Yong]

I'm looking at the 46th-100th NBA draft prspects and it is debatable who of them have more potential than Kai.

LOL tell that to the expert analysts

[tomcat]

too many what ifs ... for one Kai is not even in the Top 60 of the mock drafts

let's just have a bet straight up - Kai won't be drafted this year - winner stays here and loser leaves, game?

January 2021 account created against February 2008 acount created? And also, pang ilang account mo na ang Tae Yong dito sa Interbasket? LOL

[CoJ]

i just remembered that there are forfeitures for this year's draft. Milwaukee's 2nd rd pick was forfeited due to tampering violations, not sure if the Bulls and Heat's forfeited 2nd rd pick is for this upcoming draft or for 2023

so, if ever, there are only 57 picks this upcoming draft, hmm best case scenario for kai, the Kings or the Knicks take a gamble on him and use their respective 2nd rd picks, note that the two franchise are known for their poor draft decisions. IMHO, Kai goes undrafted, finishes his NBL contract then goes to the gleague, and eventually gets a call up from a NBA team


sources:

https://www.espn.ph/nba/story/_/id/30573569/milwaukee-bucks-lose-2022-second-round-pick-bogdan-bogdanovic-talks

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10019686-bulls-heat-forfeit-draft-picks-after-lonzo-ball-kyle-lowry-tampering-probe

[greenarcher]

Why would any team draft and stash Kai when they can just sign him as an undrafted free agent? Why waste a draft pick on a project? It's not as if he is dominating the NBL or anything.

[CoJ]

Why would any team draft and stash Kai when they can just sign him as an undrafted free agent? Why waste a draft pick on a project? It's not as if he is dominating the NBL or anything.

never underestimate the stupidity of the Sacramento Kings and NY Knicks, luckily Cleveland has already smarten up in terms of drafting

[DAdmiral]

Why would any team draft and stash Kai when they can just sign him as an undrafted free agent? Why waste a draft pick on a project? It's not as if he is dominating the NBL or anything.

It's assuming there is no one better to draft and stash over Kai, which is really a stretch , there are easily 40 prospects with higher upside.. there will litterally be players who will be 2 years younger than Kai on draft day steaming with potential and have yet the advantage of 2 full years of professional development that Kai has.

[tomcat]

Why would any team draft and stash Kai when they can just sign him as an undrafted free agent? Why waste a draft pick on a project? It's not as if he is dominating the NBL or anything.

Kai has still 1 year remaining(2022-2023 season) in his contract with the 36ers with an option for another year. If a player has a contract with another team outside of the NBA, the team that drafts that player retains his NBA rights for the future and the exclusive right to negotiate with and sign its draft pick. Also finding an NBA rotation player late in the draft is very slim.

[tomcat]

It's assuming there is no one better to draft and stash over Kai, which is really a stretch , there are easily 40 prospects with higher upside.. there will litterally be players who will be 2 years younger than Kai on draft day steaming with potential and have yet the advantage of 2 full years of professional development that Kai has.

Show me the list of prospects that belong in the 46th-100th place you think have a higher upside than Kai, take note that the list of players should be overseas or international players and the NBA team that will pick them will allow them to stay with their international teams, and then eventually bring them over to the NBA when they are NBA-ready and the team and player agree that courtship is suitable.

[DAdmiral]

Why would it be reserved to international base players? To save money?
You're also assuming that everyone in the 2nd round won't contribute to a team yet ?

Essentially you're narrowing to a very small group scenario a reason why a player will be selected late in the 2nd round.
There too many wait ifs ..while possible, it's assuming to many scenarios happening. Like all 58 picks are not yet ready..
And that Kai is the one of the very few players that has the upside contracted overseas. That's a whole lot of assumptions

In the last draft last 12 picks 48 to 60. Who fit this scenario you're describing. ?

[NOiNU]

Analyzed, you are very confident that Kai makes it to the NBA and could be picked up as a free agent after the draft. Yet, you are not comfortable with the idea of him being a draft and stash? Point is, the two scenarios might be a draft pick apart, but it is founded on a single train of thought—Kai has what it takes to be an NBA player. If a team is eyeing Kai, and is not picking last, then that’s leaving fate to chance picking someone else and hoping he doesn’t get picked by another team.

What we need to understand about the latter part of the draft, is that the discrepancy of talent among these players is practically negligible. You simply take a look at how more and more undrafted players are coming into the league and dislodging the chosen ones.

Let us not all pretend here we know everyone on those mock drafts to come up with our OWN conclusion that Kai is a lesser or better talent vis a vis any of those names. I have no problems with people making these mocks as basis for Kai’s draft chances, but be advised these mock draft guys are on the same predicament with the rest of the world, GMs included, as far as PREDICTING which player would do good in the NBA. If busts come as early as a number 1 pick (Bennet, now playing in Taiwan’s Pleague), and lottery (Milicic, Bender, Okafor), imagine the uncertainty that comes with those later picks.

No one knows for certain. That’s the only thing we can be sure of.

[Juan Lun]

Assuming sir Dave that an NBA team had the second-worst record in the NBA at the end of the regular season, yet they really don’t have much roster space to get filled in the NBA Draft and the General manager has said that only a couple of roster spots are available for next season and they have two second-round draft picks and very interested of Kai Sotto. Do you think that NBA team will not employ a draft-and-stash strategy with those selections and not pick Kai as one of the two second-round draft picks for their team?

NBA teams would rather use a 2nd round pick for a player that is not as good as Kai when it comes to offensive skills but has better potential to become really good at a particular skill like rebounding, hustle, defense etc.

Kai still has a big red flag when it comes to his Strength and Stamina. At his current rate his potential trajectory is to be only as strong as Zhou Qi, who doesn't have a 3 point shot and still working on basic fundamental flaws (proper box out, needs to raise hands always when defending).

objectively looking at it, mock drafts are accurate and Kai highly unlikely to be drafted. But if you ask the pinoy in all of us, of course we are betting on Kai being drafted, we have that hope in all of us

[DAdmiral]

Of course no one knows for sure . But predictions are based on probability. You can actually historically see the probability of a player not in concensus top 100 in March being eventually drafted in June. It's historical probability is close to zero if not zero.
Especially if you're only counting those who are already assured to be eligible to be selected ( don't count those who have yet to declare early entry)

Actually no there is a different profile teams use on free agency sign ups compared to draft picks .
For those who are on 1st year of eligibility who are signed to contract they are like 3rd round picks for a lacknof better term.
I'm not actually certain confident Kai would fall under a 3rd round pick. What I am confident off is in 2 to 3 years he will be signed as FA . (Which is different)

[NOiNU]

Of course no one knows for sure . But predictions are based on probability. You can actually historically see the probability of a player not in concensus top 100 in March being eventually drafted in June. It's historical probability is close to zero if not zero.
Especially if you're only counting those who are already assured to be eligible to be selected ( don't count those who have yet to declare early entry)

Actually no there is a different profile teams use on free agency sign ups compared to draft picks .
For those who are on 1st year of eligibility who are signed to contract they are like 3rd round picks for a lacknof better term.
I'm not actually certain confident Kai would fall under a 3rd round pick. What I am confident off is in 2 to 3 years he will be signed as FA . (Which is different)

Not true at all. People have already floated out names for you to be clinging out to that nonsensical argument. 5 months is an eternity when it comes to player movement in those rankings, esp when there’s a lot of basketball to be played. You don’t expect me to believe you were onto the rankings the past seasons 5 months into the draft to suddenly be a historian on this matter, do you? I’ve been into mock drafts a month prior or so for the last 11 years, in the lookout for “steals” in my dynasty leagues. I know for a FACT there’s a lot of movements in the rankings even in that short time prior to draft day. Imagine 5 months before.

Kai has already made a stride coming in at no. 73 in the NBA Scouting Live site. But of course we should dismiss that because this should not be in anyway a credible site given how differently they view Kai.

Ok, now its 2-3 years from now. Should’ve screenshot it, but ok, noted.