2018 FIBA Americas U18 Championship (June 10-16)

Originally posted by carlo View Post

Just watched the replay, it was a huge final performance from US team, with defense, passing and especially great team play, amazing for such young age (kudos to the coaching staff). Interestingly, this relatively unheralded team performed better than, to say, the U18 team winner in 2016 which was more loaded of highly ranked prospects. In this title game Robinson-Earl (just ranked #34 in 2019 class by ESPN) was notably impressive, with a perfect 7/7 shooting and strong rebounding. I thought Canada more competitive after watching some of their prelim games, in the end Argentina proved to be the hardest competitor to US team.

All-Five: Nembhard, Caffaro, Anthony, White and Grimes (MVP).

Agreed. This is probably the best coached US team I've seen since the 2013 U-19 World Championship. This squad played with cohesion, unselfishness, intensity and great basketball IQ, which is rare for an underage US team that hadn't played together for long. I believe Canada is a better team than the result, but the spotlight of playing at home made them play faster with more intensity than necessary, resulting in terrible shot selection and rushed FG attempts; the US exploited their every mistake. I expect them to be better prepared next summer during the U-19 championship. The Argentines usually give the US more trouble because they play more of a European-style: half-court basketball, limit the amount of turnovers, foul the US on fastbreaking/transition opportunities, and stretch the US defensively with spacing and backdoor cuts.

This is a great overview of the Canadian team from a poster (Hair Canada) over at our RealGM Raptors "Team Canada" thread. He really knows his youth level stuff.

The tournament is coming to Canada this year (starting this Sunday) and will be hosted in St. Catharines, giving Canadian basketball fans a good reason to get excited about it and maybe go watch some games. Hopefully, we’ll see more big international basketball tournaments coming to Canada in the future.

In terms of the competition system and specifically securing a spot in next year’s U19 world championship, things are a bit different than in previous years. In the past, it was enough to finish in the top 2 in your preliminary group (which Canada had no trouble doing) to get to the semi-finals and secure the spot. This year, there’s an additional stage – quarter finals on the fifth day of the competition (following a day of rest), in which all 8 teams in the tournament will participate. This means that this would effectively be the most important day of the competition. One bad game might mean that you are out of the WC next year. It’s still unlikely that Canada doesn’t make it, but it does increase the risk a bit.

In this post, I first review the other teams and then the Canadian roster, trying to assess our chances and some of the future prospects on this team.

THE COMPETITION

Similar to the last few tournaments, it seems like there are three distinct levels in this championship: (1) The US, (2) Canada, and (3) the other teams. But without RJ Barrett, I think there’s a higher chance that one of the other teams will beat Canada than for Canada to pull up an upset over the US.

Interestingly, Canada is in the South American group and the US plays with the Central American one. The Canadian group includes Chile, Argentina, and Ecuador. Chile and Ecuador are not usually considered basketball powerhouses, to say the least, while Argentina is a bigger name, but has been quite mediocre in recent years, following the demise of its golden generation. However, this year Chile seems to be our strongest rival. It won last year’s South American championship, led by 18.5yo 6’1 PG Ignacio Varela, who had 16 points, 6.6 assists and 6.6 rebounds a game, 18.5yo 6’10 center, Maxwell Lloyd, who had 14 points and 13 rebounds, and 5 (!) blocked shots, and 6’2 SG Kevin Romero, who was the championship leading scorer with 16.5 points a game. With both size and a good PG, they might pose the greatest challenge to the Canadian team in the group stage. Argentina tends to play team-oriented basketball, and so does Ecuador, with none of the players on either team scoring more than 13 points a game last summer.

On the other side of the draw, The Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and Panama seem to all be pretty much at the same level (tight games at last year’s U17 Centrobasket in the Dominican Republic). All three teams seem to have strong inside presence, and might be able to challenge the relatively thin Canadian frontcourt if we meet them in the Semis. For Panama, it’s Ricardo Martinez, who had 22.5 points, 12.5 rebounds, and 4 blocks in last year’s championship. For Puerto Rico it’s Jorge Torres, who had 14 points, 10 rebounds, and 2 blocks. And for the Dominican Rep it’s the undersized (6’7) but strong and skilled PF Alanzo Frink, who posted 18.2 points and 8.5 rebounds a game.

Finally, the United States, as usual, is on whole other sphere. Apart from Nembhard, and maybe Patterson and Lawson, I would probably gladly trade any of our players for one of theirs. In particular, I was impressed with Cole Anthony, an explosive 6’3 CG who can score in bunches (led the Nike D1 circuit this year with 27 points and 7.5 rebounds a game). Other potential team leaders are combo guards Quentin Grimes (6’5) and Tyrese Maxey (6’3), SF Scottie Lewis (6’5), and PF Matthew Hurt (6’9), all clear NBA potentials. But the American teams also usually enjoy roster depth that the other teams just can’t cope with, so again it would be a huge surprise if they lose one of their games.

TEAM CANADA

As for the Canadian team, apart from Barrett, this is probably the most talented team that Canada can put up. But this group (mostly class of 2019) just doesn’t have the star power and current level of production possessed by the one-year-older 2018 class. Nembhard is excellent, but more of a facilitator, and while there are a few long-term potentials (mainly Patterson, Lawson, and Samuel), no one, perhaps with the exception of the younger Patterson, is currently showing the consistent production levels that Canadian players like Shi-ttu, Brazdeikis, Dort, and of course Barrett showed against American AAU competition at the same time last year.

Still, this roster, especially on home court, should probably be good enough against any team other than the US, and should be able to win the silver medal and secure a spot at the U19 world championship next year.

Here’s a review of the 12 players on the roster. Some I’ve written about before (viewtopic.php?f=32&t=1644140), so I’ll try not to be repetitive.

GUARDS

Andrew Nembhard (6’4 PG; class of 2018) – Nembhard, the only 2018 player on this team, is also the most well-known and highly touted of the bunch, and for a good reason. Played alongside Barrett in Montverde Academy over the last two years, and had a major role in the national high school championship and their fantastic perfect 35-0 season. A pass-first PG, who’s a bit limited in terms of creating his own shot at the highest level. In this coming championship though, I expect him to take a bit more of an active role in scoring, as he is perhaps the most talented and certainly the most ready and experienced player on the team (already has two campaigns with the national team under his belt, having played with the U16 and U17 teams). Not a great athlete, although he’s improved this aspect of his game quite a lot over the last two years. Also a decent shooter, but most importantly, just a great passer and a very confident ball handler, which is a great asset for any team at this age group. Also a very good defender, which reads plays very well and steals the ball at a high rate. Was really fantastic in the last few games of the season, particularly at the Dick National’s and the Signature All Star Canadian game, where he dished around 15 beautiful assists and was at a different level, alongside Barrett. Was not as impressive playing for the World team at the Nike Hoop Summit, but it still looks like he’s a much improved and more complete and assertive player than he used to be.

Joel Brown (6’2 PG; class of 2019). Should be the backup PG for this team. Like Nembhard, he’s a pass-first PG, but not as gifted of a passer as Nembhard is and doesn’t control the tempo of the game as well (can play a bit rushed at times). On the plus side, he’s a bit more athletic and quicker than Nembhard and he’s also a really fantastic ball handler, who really has the ball on a string (Nembhard’s dribble can be a bit high). It’s fun to watch him play. His speed and handle help him get to the basket and break down defenders, although he still doesn’t always finish with enough creativity and efficiency around the rim. His biggest vice, which will prevent him from reaching the highest levels unless he can really turn things around, is his shooting. At this point, he’s just a non-shooter. Rarely takes an outside shots and even less frequently hits them. Even without this, he’s managed to have a very positive AAU summer with CIA Bounce, scoring 15, dishing 5 and grabbing 5 boards a game. Should get quite a few minutes in the tournament behind Nembhard and maybe sometimes alongside him.

AJ Lawson (6’7 CG; class of 2018). Lawson recently decided to reclassify and is now looking for the best college fit. Not an optimal decision in my view, as I don’t think he’s physically ready (and maybe also not mentally). There’s no doubt about Lawson’s talent and potential (if all goes well, he’ll make it to the NBA). In every game I’ve seen him play (probably around 50 of them), he’s shown flashes that make you jump out of your sit. But at the same time, his game is also very inconsistent and young. He’s got a very good handle for his height and long strides, making him explosive in the open court. But he still often loses the ball in traffic. Can finish easily above the rim, but often fails to do it with even the slightest contact, due to his slim physicality. You can also see the potential for a nice 3-ball shot, including a beautiful step-back, but he just doesn’t shoot it with any consistency and often misses by a lot. His passing also shows nice flashes, but like the other aspects of his game, it’s inconsistent and often goes off-target. In short, I know he’s highly regarded and was considered the best potential in the class of 2019 before reclassifying. Many expect him to have a coming-out tournament here. But I don’t think he’s quite ready to take a star role. He’ll probably have a couple of very good game, but I’d be surprised if he shows consistent and efficient scoring and decision making. Hope I’m wrong about this.

Addison Patterson (6’7 CG; class of 2020). The youngest player on this team, but I think there’s actually a decent chance he’ll end up as Canada’s leading scorer. I’ve been somewhat hard on Patterson in the past. He’s quite a frustrating prospect. His talent level is unquestionable and he’s one of the more fun players to watch among our young guns. But his attitude on the court can be infuriating. I won’t add more on this (the link below gives more details on that). I will say though that he has hopefully turned a page this summer. Playing with CIA Bounce at Nike’s EYBL, he’s been great, scoring more than 20 points a game and even showing signs of an improved jump shot and 3-ball. To put this in context, Lawson, Emmanuel Miller, and Tyrese Samuel, the best players on Canada’s other AAU team (UPlay), scored 12, 11, and 7 points a game respectively in 4 sessions (16 games). So it seems like Patterson might actually be our best scorer. From what I’ve seen from him before, he also has excellent vision and can be a very good passer when surrounded by enough talent and motivated to make the extra pass. He can definitely play lead guard for some stretches if needed. Let’s hope that the fact he is a year younger will mean his attitude is in check and he plays team basketball on both ends of the floor.

viewtopic.php?f=32&t=1644482&p=60956369#p60956369

Jahcobi Neath (6’3 CG; class of 2019). A really nice player. More of a shooting guard than a PG at this stage, but can certainly also help leading the ball. An excellent athlete (probably the most explosive among the guards on this team), who finished above the rim with ease (including alley-oops). A good shooter and slasher, with some creativity on his finishes. Also has good vision and passing, allowing him to create for others. Very talented, but sometimes seems to take plays off and doesn’t always play with consistent motor and intensity. When he’s fully engaged and in rhythm, he’s clearly a high-major talent and can be very efficient coming off the bench for this Canada team.

Connor Vreeken (6’4 SG; class of 2019). For me, he’s the biggest surprise on this final roster. A relatively unknown player, certainly when compared to players like Tre Edwards, who didn’t make it to the final roster. I’ve mainly watched him play for Team Ontario during last summer’s U17 Canada Games, where he didn’t really stand out. Vreeken is a very good shooter, probably the best on this team. He plays within the system and doesn’t demand the ball, but I haven’t seen him do anything else especially well. Unless he’s made huge strides since, I would think that he shouldn’t see too much playing time in the current tournament. But maybe he’ll surprise again, especially if outside shooting becomes an issue (which is another reason I’m a bit puzzled they didn’t also take Tre Edwards).

FORWARDS

Emmanuel Miller (6’7 SF; class of 2019). Should be our opening SF and might see minutes as a four in smaller lineups. Miller is a very good defender. Quick feet, very athletic, and plays with a very good intensity. Doesn’t always play very smart defense, but he is probably still our best defensive stopper. Offensively, he’s a limited player at this point. Not much of an outside shot, restricted mainly to finishing fast breaks and straight-line drives to the basket lacking a degree of finesse in traffic. His finish around the basket could also use significant polish. Still, he’s aggressive and plays with a high motor, which gets him some second chance and hassle baskets. Can also make nice passes, as he showed last year when playing for team Ontario in the Canadian Nationals. Played a secondary role last season for high school powerhouse La Lumiere, but I think he should still be one of our key guys in this tournament.

Tyrese Samuel (6’8 SF/PF; class of 2019). The only non-Ontario player on this team (from QC). One of the more frustrating players on this team. In terms of seer talent, he might have the highest ceiling on this roster. When everything clicks, he looks like a surefire future NBA combo-forward, possessing all the tools for the modern game: athleticism, strength, length (7’1 wingspan), some shooting, and even a decent handle. But he’s very inconsistent and has been very disappointing this summer playing EYBL basketball with UPlay. His energy level and motor fluctuate a lot, both offensively and defensively, and it often looks like he’s just not there mentally. Next year he’s coming back to play in Canada after a couple of years in the States, and will join Orangeville Prep in the OSBA. Hopefully, something clicks so he can tap into his fantastic potential. But right now, I’m not sure how efficient he’ll be in the U18 tournament. He’ll probably start at the 4 and there’s a good chance he’ll have at least one or two good games. But it’s really hard to count on him to play with consistency at this point and he might prove to be a defensive liability despite his great tools if he doesn’t improve his effort level. Still, he’s probably our best option at the 4 and should see some big minutes in this tournament if he can show a good level of effort.

Wheza Panzo (6’6 SG/SF; class of 2019). A forward who plays his high school basketball at Hamilton Heights in Tennessee (where cousins SGA and NAW played until last year). Panzo does many things fairly well, but nothing at an elite level. A pretty good defender, who’s also a decent ball handler, shooter, and passer. Not a scorer though, and tends to blend-in and not really take initiative. Coaches seem to like him quite a lot, so he might get minutes as a defensive guy who doesn’t need the ball in his hands to make a contribution. But personally I think his talent level is somewhat limited and I don’t see him as a future prospect for the Canadian senior team.

Jevonnie Scott (6’7 SF/PF; class of 2019). Had somewhat of a breakout season last year with Athlete Institute in the OSBA. A strong forward who Looks a bit heavy, but has some sneaky athleticism and ball handling skills. When his outside shot was falling, he looked like a legit SF with some next-level game. But he can be quite inconsistent on both ends of the floor, doesn’t always show up in games, and tends to get in foul trouble. Defensively, he’s more of a PF, although his mediocre height and athleticism limit his long-term potential at that position. Not the most talented player on the team, but given the serious shortage in capable big-men, might see some extended minutes playing the 4 and maybe even the 5 at times, as he can put a body on shorter and stronger bigs.

BIGS

Jaden Bediako (6’10 C; Class of 2019). Most likely the starting center for this team. Bediako has made a long way since his last appearances with the Canadian national teams two summers ago (U17 and U18), where he looked so heavy, flat-footed, and clumsy that you had to doubt if he’ll ever be able to actually become a decent basketball player. He now moves much better on the court, blocking shots left and right using his fantastic wingspan (around 7’3 I think) and good timing. He’s also developed some nice offensive moves, relying on his big body and length, including a nice hook shot and even a decent mid-range shot. Jaden is Also a good rebounder, especially offensively. But even with all that, he’ll never be an agile or athletic player and I can’t see him ever getting to the NBA. Can still help team Canada in this tournament quite a bit, as guys with his size and length are few and far in between at this level. But he might have a hard time staying on the court when defending against smaller teams with quick players and good shooters.

Charles Bediako (6’11 C; Class of 2021). Jaden’s brother is the youngest player on the roster. A bit surprising for me that he made it in, not because he is not talented, but mainly because he is two years younger than the competition, and because from what I’ve seen Ben Hendriks is a better player at this point. Charles is also likely to play with the U17 team later this month, so I’m not sure about the need to put the extra burden on him. As for basketball, Charles is quite a different player than his brother. Not nearly as strong and massive, with longer legs and a higher center of gravity. But he’s clearly more mobile, athletic, and adapted to the modern game. Like Jaden, he possesses a long wingspan and is a good shot blocker, but he can also finish alley-oops nicely when he’s set up properly. However, at this point, he’s not nearly as efficient and dominant on the offensive end as Jaden is, and he often looks lost, especially against stronger big men, who just push him out of the paint to areas where he can’t really contribute (he has no mid-range shot, and he’s also not much of a passer). This was certainly the case during last year’s U16 championship, where he was a starter but played limited minutes, and also this year playing for Ridley College in the OSBA. Will probably serve as Jaden’s backup, but I actually think that there’s a good chance we’ll see quite a bit of extra-small-ball minutes, with Samuel or Scott playing the 5 and Miller at the 4.

In sum, this is quite a talented team, especially the guards, but it has no clear alpha-dog and a pretty thin frontcourt, with no one we can really count on to show up consistently. It will probably be enough against most teams, but I think even with home court advantage we have little chance of giving the Americans a real run for their money.

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