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CoachZ
09-03-2019, 12:09 AM
In order not to spam the other topics with the betting stuff, that might not interest some members, I think it's better to have a separate topic.

Anyway, feel free to point some value and let's get some money for coke and hookers.

September 3rd Games - some of my picks

Montenegro - New Zealand - H2 - All Blacks cover the spread of 6.5 points
Brazil - Greece - H1 - Brazil covers the 13.5 spread
USA - Turkey - H1 - Team USA cover the 20.5 spread

The one that is bothering me a bit is Lithuania - Canada with a 8.5 spread. Seems that Canada has no chance to fight off the inside game of Lithuania but also I expect a much slower pace compared to the Australia game and Canada could cover it. Anyway, it's not something I recommend playing.

CoachZ
09-03-2019, 12:56 AM
Some player performances picks for tomorrow:

Australia vs Senegal
- Ingles over 4.5 assists
- Ingles over 11.5 points
- Landale over 9.5 points

Montenegro vs New Zealand
- Vucevic over 15.5 points
- Dubljevic over 5.5 rebounds

Japan vs Czech Republic
- Satoransky over 15.5 points
- Hachimura over 6.5 rebounds

Germany vs Dominican Republic
- Voigtmann over 9.5 points

Lithuania vs Canada
- Kalnietis over 5.5 assists
- Pangos over 4.5 assists
- Valanciunas over 14.5 points
- Grigonis over 8.5 points

Brazil vs Greece
- Barbosa under 17.5 points
- Printzesis over 9.5 points

USA vs Turkey
- Mitchell over 15.5 points
- Korkmaz under 14.5 points
- Turner over 6.5 rebounds

Jordan vs France
- Al Dwairi under 15.5 points
- De Colo under 14.5 points

usagre
09-03-2019, 07:00 AM
Point spreads in basketball are murder, I always play it safe with money line bets. Sometimes you have parlay a couple in order to get some value. I am holding out for the quarterfinals where I will definitely bet.

From your player prop bets I like the overs points for both Vucevic and Valanciunas.

Levenspiel
09-03-2019, 08:40 AM
S
Australia vs Senegal
- Ingles over 4.5 assists
- Ingles over 11.5 points

Germany vs Dominican Republic
- Voigtmann over 9.5 points

Brazil vs Greece
- Barbosa under 17.5 points

USA vs Turkey
- Korkmaz under 14.5 points

how much do these pay? look pretty safe to me.

I never bet in my life. what does spread mean? point differential?

CoachZ
09-03-2019, 10:07 AM
how much do these pay? look pretty safe to me.

I never bet in my life. what does spread mean? point differential?

They all pay 1.9 odds.

Spread is the point difference for that odd. So let's say Germany is a 7.5 point favorite over Dominican, if you play Germany to cover spread, they have to win by 8 or more. If you play Dominican to cover the spread, it means they have to lose by 7 or less.

CoachZ
09-03-2019, 10:09 AM
BTW, since this morning the spread on Canada has exploded from 8.5 to 10.5 points.

I am starting to think that Canada can cover this, losing by 10 points or less. Lithuania is a favorite and they should win this, but it's a do or die game for Canada and I don't see them getting blown away by Lithuania.

So, Lithuania vs Canada, Canada to cover 10.5 spread.

CoachZ
09-03-2019, 10:21 AM
Point spreads in basketball are murder, I always play it safe with money line bets. Sometimes you have parlay a couple in order to get some value. I am holding out for the quarterfinals where I will definitely bet.

From your player prop bets I like the overs points for both Vucevic and Valanciunas.

I don't do a lot of parlays, or if I do them, it's for a smaller amount. I usually play spreads or player performance. They pay even odds minus the bookies wig. If you can hit around 55% of these, you are profitable. Solid money if you hit 60% +

usagre
09-03-2019, 05:06 PM
0-2 on my player prop bets both Valanciunas and Vucevic went under.

I am a bit surprised that following this USA performance the odds at least at my sports book haven’t changed when it comes to winning the whole thing.

USA still -180
Serbia. +290

I would put it at even.

Mindozas
09-03-2019, 05:34 PM
Those stats fillers will give me a heart attack. Today had a parlay with Vucevic rebs o6,5, Fazekas o6,5, it went over and last one was assists of Kalnietis, needed 6. Was counting it all game long of course, finished with 5 according to livestats, damn was a bit pissed, nice money was on the table, now browsing in bookie site and baaam - money flows in out of nowhere - in game stats sheet Kalnietis has 6 assists... lol.
They work so random there. In both rebs and assists. Yesterday was literally robbed with Deon Thompson 2 rebs. They simply ignored his offensive rebs twice, good that it wasn't decisive pick. On Sunday stats fillers were doing strange moves with Fotu rebs, luckily it finished good. It makes me think twice now to bet or not to bet on individual stats of players, you can never know what will happen. I could only imagine how feels the ones who today had Kalnietis assists under, ffs :)

CoachZ
09-03-2019, 05:52 PM
Those stats fillers will give me a heart attack. Today had a parlay with Vucevic rebs o6,5, Fazekas o6,5, it went over and last one was assists of Kalnietis, needed 6. Was counting it all game long of course, finished with 5 according to livestats, damn was a bit pissed, nice money was on the table, now browsing in bookie site and baaam - money flows in out of nowhere - in game stats sheet Kalnietis has 6 assists... lol.
They work so random there. In both rebs and assists. Yesterday was literally robbed with Deon Thompson 2 rebs. They simply ignored his offensive rebs twice, good that it wasn't decisive pick. On Sunday stats fillers were doing strange moves with Fotu rebs, luckily it finished good. It makes me think twice now to bet or not to bet on individual stats of players, you can never know what will happen. I could only imagine how feels the ones who today had Kalnietis assists under, ffs :)

Or if two games in a row Valanciunas robs you of nice cash :D

Jonas will not be seeing my betslip any more :D

Mindozas
09-03-2019, 06:06 PM
Or if two games in a row Valanciunas robs you of nice cash :D

Jonas will not be seeing my betslip any more :D

You are not the only one, JV rebs was probably one of the most popular picks today in LT, odds were dropping heavily, I was almost sold aswell. I guess there is army of people who would join you in Jonas headhunting :D

usagre
09-04-2019, 09:03 AM
Now odds to win it are more appropriate.

USA -140
Serbia +185

All others huge long shots 15-1 and up.

usagre
09-04-2019, 04:35 PM
Spain has opened as 9.5 point favorite against Italy in my sports book. That’s way too many points. 6 would be reasonable.

CoachZ
09-04-2019, 04:37 PM
Spain has opened as 9.5 point favorite against Italy in my sports book. That’s way too many points. 6 would be reasonable.

I would take Italy there at that line. That is just crazy.

What are the lines for Serbia vs Spain?

usagre
09-04-2019, 04:39 PM
What are the lines for Serbia vs Spain?

It doesn’t have that yet. Serbia 22.5 over Puerto Rico.

usagre
09-04-2019, 04:42 PM
Lithuania 2.5 and in some places 3.5 point favorite over Australia surprises me a little. Even looks more appropriate.

Lyonswim
09-05-2019, 02:49 PM
Any opinions about the game Poland vs Russia?
I really like that 2.15 on Poland. :)
Also the game Italy against Spain is tempting.
2.85 on Italy.

usagre
09-05-2019, 02:52 PM
Spain 5.5 now and Serbia 30.5 those look more appropriate than yesterday’s spreads.

usagre
09-05-2019, 03:12 PM
USA opens as 11.5 point favorite at my sports book.
+550 for Greece to win has a lot of value, especially with the US injury questions.

usagre
09-05-2019, 03:24 PM
Brazil 9.5 point favorite over Czech Republic. Give me the points I don’t see a double digit Brazil victory.

Lyonswim
09-05-2019, 04:19 PM
Brazil 9.5 point favorite over Czech Republic. Give me the points I don’t see a double digit Brazil victory.

Czech Republic is tough. I belive they can defend 9.5

usagre
09-06-2019, 02:51 PM
USA now only 8.5 point favorite against Greece.
Serbia 8.5 point favorite against Spain.
France only 2.5 point favorite against Lithuania.

usagre
09-08-2019, 03:13 PM
Serbia opens up as 8.5 point favorite against Argentina in the first quarterfinal of the tournament.