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christodoulou76
07-31-2013, 03:16 PM
I have compiled the starting and ending TheSportCity.net (http://www.thesportcity.net/f_manager_control.php?mseason_id=13) fantasy prices for players of the top 8 teams in Eurobasket 2011 and have estimated the final Eurobasket 2013 rosters of these teams as well as the starting fantasy prices for each of their players (with the exception of FYROM: can someone provide me with an approximate 12-man roster?) IR = Cumulative Index Rating SP = Starting price, EP = Ending Price, CP = Change in Price

5897

christodoulou76
07-31-2013, 04:07 PM
Eurobasket 2011 on the left, Eurobasket 2013 on the right

5898

christodoulou76
07-31-2013, 04:08 PM
last two, but as I said I don't have info on FYROM roster for 2013.

5899

Mindozas
07-31-2013, 04:13 PM
PG B.McCalebb, A.Kostovski
SG V.Ilievski, V.Stojanovski, D.Sokolov, G.Markovski
SF D.Stojanovski , S.Gjuroski, V.Brčkov
PF P.Antic, G.Čekovski, B.Krstevski
C P.Samardžiski, A.Šterjov

Smth like that so far

christodoulou76
08-01-2013, 12:19 PM
fantasy predictions for a few more Eurobasket 2013 teams.

5900

wardjdim
08-01-2013, 01:52 PM
Rochestie won't play mate.. Tyrese Rice is gonna be their U.S. born PG. They change them every summer :)

christodoulou76
08-01-2013, 02:03 PM
Rochestie won't play mate.. Tyrese Rice is gonna be their U.S. born PG. They change them every summer :)

Thanks for the heads up. If you see any other mistakes, let me know.

christodoulou76
08-07-2013, 01:32 PM
So TheSportCity.Net has posted its preliminary prices (http://www.thesportcity.net/f_manager_control.php?mseason_id=33&page=1) - there are a few errors: Sofo, Calathes, Rochestie, Jagodnik, Tepic, Micov, Perovic, Bilan, Radosevic are listed even though they won't play. But also some surprises. Here is a list of players I think might be underpriced:

Tony Parker 14323
Rudy Fernandez 12896
Nenad Krstic 12260
Goran Dragic 12083
Vasilis Spanoulis 11571
Ersan Ilyasova 10743
Alexey Shved 8917
Andrei Voroncevich 8108
Jonas Valanciunas 8091
Omer Asik 8021
Donatas Motiejunas 8000
Jose Calderon 7296
Giorgi Shermadini 6550
Luka Zoric 6150
Nando De Colo 5774
Kostas Papanikolaou 5000
Fernando San Emeterio 4603
Aleksej Zhukanenko 4200
Sergio Rodriguez 3611
Marko Todorovic 3350
Alessandro Gentile 3243
Kostas Kaimakoglou 1758

borkab
08-07-2013, 01:56 PM
Nicely done. :)

christodoulou76
08-07-2013, 02:29 PM
Nicely done. :)

Thank you for all your hard work in creating a Eurobasket fantasy game again this year!

christodoulou76
08-07-2013, 03:17 PM
actual fantasy prices organized by team (and compared to predictions - I was way off on some of these :o )

5941

christodoulou76
08-07-2013, 03:29 PM
a few more here

5943

christodoulou76
08-07-2013, 04:34 PM
and some more

5944

christodoulou76
08-07-2013, 06:01 PM
last few comparisons

5945

christodoulou76
08-07-2013, 06:51 PM
Once players are removed from the game, rarely do the prices of the other players get adjusted. For instance, Pekovic left the tournament but the prices of other Montenegro big men such as Vukevic and Sekulic were not adjusted. Since these big men are likely now to get more playing time, they might be undervalued.

EDIT: But as borkab points out, more playing time can sometimes lead to large negative scores and the removal of good players from a team will have a downward impact on the overall scores of a team so it is quite complicated to assess the impact. Thanks borkab for the clarification!

christodoulou76
08-08-2013, 02:49 AM
Over at the prediction thread, we have been discussing how to predict team strength. One way is to look at player fantasy prices by team. This is probably not highly predictive but it does provide some sense of relative roster quality. I summed up the fantasy prices of the 10 most expensive players on each team. I made a few adjustments because TheSportCity.Net (http://www.thesportcity.net/f_manager_control.php) includes certain players who are not on the current rosters of their NTs. In those cases, I have not included the price of these players in my calculations.

Some surprising results. Spain, Russia and FYROM seem too low, Poland is perhaps too high. But overall, a pretty reasonable spread I think.

5952

EDIT: TheSportCity.Net has added Fotsis to the Greek team so the rankings have been adjusted accordingly.

Raz
08-08-2013, 05:43 AM
Can you tell me how do these fantasy prices come out?It's a little peculiar for Belgium to be over Russia,Greece,FYROM,Montenegro etc.

borkab
08-08-2013, 08:22 AM
Let's wait till final squads are announced and then it will be possible to compare. Prices come mostly from historical stats and a bit of a common sense. When so many lead players are not participating everything becomes quite unpredictable.

Regarding increasing prices after some player is removed. That is not straightforwards. More playing time does not mean better overall result. If some dude used to play 5 minutes per game and make 5 in its usefullness, then if he suddenly starts to play 15, he of course can do more positive, but at the same time can do more negative. Historical stats for Vucevic were indicating that his price should be 1.2K!, however his current price is 11K which is a dramatic increase 10x already.

Raz
08-08-2013, 11:18 AM
That's fair then,since many Greek players have not played in more than one competition (some of them in none) and the last didn't end particularly well.

christodoulou76
08-08-2013, 11:22 AM
thank you borkab and raz for your comments. the teams that are lower than we might expect are all teams that have major absences in the tournament in relation to 2011 Eurobasket - Spain (P. Gasol, Navarro), Greece (Calathes, Sofo, Koufos), Russia (Kirilenko, Khryapa, Mozgov, Kaun). What seems to have occurred is that these missing players' high prices were removed from the game but the prices of the other players were not adjusted upward enough. Still, as borkab notes, upward adjustment is not easy to calculate, especially at this early stage in the preparations. But this is exactly what makes TheSportCity.Net fantasy game so much fun - trying to find the underpriced players so you can build a successful team.

For predictive purposes, one must not take the rankings above too seriously - but they do show the possible strength of certain teams that we might have otherwise overlooked, like Poland, Latvia and Israel.

christodoulou76
08-25-2013, 06:21 PM
Over at the prediction thread, we have been discussing how to predict team strength. One way is to look at player fantasy prices by team. This is probably not highly predictive but it does provide some sense of relative roster quality. I summed up the fantasy prices of the 10 most expensive players on each team. I made a few adjustments because TheSportCity.Net (http://www.thesportcity.net/f_manager_control.php) includes certain players who are not on the current rosters of their NTs. In those cases, I have not included the price of these players in my calculations.

Some surprising results. Spain, Russia and FYROM seem too low, Poland is perhaps too high. But overall, a pretty reasonable spread I think.

5952

EDIT: TheSportCity.Net has added Fotsis to the Greek team so the rankings have been adjusted accordingly.

If the real rankings are something like this:

1. Spain
2. France
3. Lithuania
4. Greece
5. Serbia
6. Turkey
7. FYROM
8. Slovenia
9. Poland
10. Italy
11. Israel
12. Germany

Then, at least some of the players on the following teams are overpriced:
Croatia
Poland
Latvia

And some of the players on the following teams are underpriced:
Spain
FYROM
Greece
Serbia
Germany

christodoulou76
08-26-2013, 10:59 AM
podcast at in-the-game (http://www.in-the-game.org/podcast-eurobasket-preview/)predicts that n. bjelica and j. lauvergne might be breakout stars in this eurobasket. they might be worth picking up on your fantasy team.