Will LeBron James reach the NBA all-time scoring record?

[stuart]

Will LeBron James reach the NBA all-time scoring record? James already has scored 6,307 total points and is averaging about 26.5 over his career (about 2100 points a year) in only his third year... and he is only 21 years old. It has been said many times that a player hits his peak about 28-30 in the NBA and then steadily declines from there, so Lebron considering that he hasn't hit his prime yet LeBron could feasibly go for 35-37 points a game for 3-5 seasons, which is about 3000 total points if he plays every game.

The record is 38,387 points by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. For LeBron to reak the record and accumulate, say 38,500 total points, lets say he plays until he is 35 years old, LeBron would have to average about 29.4 pts a game over his 16 seasons. If he played until he was 36 years old (17 seasons), LBJ would have to average 27.6pts a game.

Considering that he just finished averaging 31.4 as a twenty-one year old, I think LeBron is in for some seasons where he puts up at least 34ppg, I think, barring huge injuries, it's entirely possible.

Stuart

[Phantim3dx]

those are some heavy stats, i look in fear to my next semester when i have to take statistics

[23_for_life]

man, that record seemed untouchable.... I thought once if Jordan couldn't do it. I dunno who else will. Well the answer is LeBron. I honestly think he will break the record, that is if no major things happen such as a season long injury a strike or anything like that.

Points on playoffs games and finals also count right? So being the star as he is and considering the Cavs will be the team to beat in the future, he will get more points from there.

PS. Do you think if Jordan hadn't taken those 4 years off, he would have made it to 1st place?

[stuart]

PS. Do you think if Jordan hadn't taken those 4 years off, he would have made it to 1st place?

Yep, I think Michael Jordan would have seriously challenged it if not surpassed it.

Check this out.... Jordan ended up with 32,292 total career points. However, as we know, MJ retired the first time in 93-94 for the entire season, and for about 65 games in 94-95 before coming back for the final 17 games of the season. Before that retirement, his prior five-year averages were

88-89 CHI 32.5
89-90 CHI 33.6
90-91 CHI 31.5
91-92 CHI 30.1
92-93 CHI 32.6

Let's be safe and say he would have averaged 30.0 a game for 80 games in 93-94 and 60 games in 94-95 (so 80+60=140 game x 30ppg = 4200 points)

Then he retired again, taking off seasons 98-99, 99-00, 00-01, the three prior years before his second retirement, Jordan's scoring averages were:

95-96 CHI 30.4
96-97 CHI 29.6
97-98 CHI 28.7

However, at this time, I think one would be safe to assume that his averages were not going to go up, but either stay steady or head downwards (as evidenced by his comeback with the Washington Wizards with an ppg average of 22.9 and 20.0)

So let's say, for the three seasons he was retired, Jordan averaged 25.5ppg for a total of 204 games (77 out of the 82 games, adjusted for small injuries, for both 99-00 and 00-01 seasons plus all 50 games during the 98-99 NBA lockout season) So 204 games x 25.5ppg = 5202 points.

With those numbers, you have this final math

Points Jordan Scored (Real): 32,292 points
Points Jordan Could have scored in 93-95: 4200 points
Points Jordan Could have scored in 99-01: 5202 points

So 32292+ 4200 + 5202 = 41,694 points (Kareem 38,387)

So with that math, MJ beats KAJ by over 3000 points... I definitely think LeBron has a great shot, esp. if he stay injury-free (because in Jordan's second year he missed 64 games!

Stuart

P.S. Let me know if my math is off or if I am missing something...

[Levenspiel]

hey stuart, I was contemplating on the same thing

Points on playoffs games and finals also count right? So being the star as he is and considering the Cavs will be the team to beat in the future, he will get more points from there.

As far as I know: No! only the points made in the regular season count!
(I made a little confirmation, I think I'm right.)

Points Jordan Scored (Real): 29,277 points

hmm... the official nba site and the basketballreference database says it's 32,292

so, if he played only 3 more years, Jordan would get that record, provided that he at least averaged 25.5 points in 80 games (which would be so easy to achieve)

as to Lebron, yes he can do it. and I believe he will. he needs 32000 points, which will take 13 years for him with a rough estimate and he's only 21 now!

Iverson (30yo, 28ppg, 19115 points) and Kobe (27yo, 23.9ppg,16866 points) will probably reach the 30,000 points, which is also something very special - achieved by only 4 players so far.

Dirk Nowitzki (27yo, 22ppg, 13257 points) will be the best scorer international soon, by passing Rolando Blackman (17623) - Hakeem Olajuwan not counted.

Sorry, I think I expanded the topic too much...

[stuart]

hmm... the official nba site and the basketballreference database says it's 32,292

You are right, sariss, I was looking at a page that listed the points as of 1999. I thought I had edited my post quick enough...

Dirk Nowitzki (27yo, 22ppg, 13257 points) will be the best scorer international soon, by passing Rolando Blackman (17623) - Hakeem Olajuwan not counted.

Interesting, I know it probably is pretty obvious, but is there a site that accumulates these total points just for international players?

Stuart

[Levenspiel]

Interesting, I know it probably is pretty obvious, but is there a site that accumulates these total points just for international players?

Stuart

No, I myself keep those statistics, together with some other weird (for you ) stats on many different subjects.

[stuart]

Look what was posted just yesterday....

From DimeMag via FoxSports: Which NBA Marks Are in Danger?

Which NBA Marks Are in Danger?

...we wonder how many of basketball's all-time records are in jeopardy?

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's 38,387 points
Shaquille O'Neal has the most career points among active players, but the Diesel's 24,813 are too far away for him to catch Kareem before he retires. Kobe Bryant is the game's best scorer from a pure talent standpoint, but given the early years in his career where he wasn't the No. 1 option with the Lakers, Kobe is still playing catch-up. He would have to drop 35 points a night for the next eight years to pass Abdul-Jabbar. That's a tall, tall order.



Then there's LeBron James. If LeBron averages 30 a game for the next 13 years, he would pass Kareem around the time he turned 34. And given the fact that LeBron's ceiling is pretty much off the charts right now — he could average 40 next year and it wouldn't surprise us — he's a guy to watch for taking the all-time scoring crown.
One thing that could prevent Kobe and LeBron from reaching Kareem is their size. Guards and wing players usually can't put up big numbers as easily in the latter stages of their careers, whereas someone like Kareem could toss up skyhooks until he was 50 if he wanted to.

[GR8BBALL]

Look what was posted just yesterday....

From DimeMag via FoxSports: Which NBA Marks Are in Danger?

Yeah he could probably do that--what about Yao does he stand any chance??
He's also a center and could be playing for many years...

[Levenspiel]

Yeah he could probably do that--what about Yao does he stand any chance??
He's also a center and could be playing for many years...

Yao is 26 years old right now, and he's scored a total of 5970 points so far.

Even if he plays till 40 y.o, he must play in all the remaining 1080 games with an average of 30.0 ppg to reach Kareem's record.

(Yao's career best season is the current one, and he's making 25.9 points per game)