Competition System in WC 2010

[christodoulou76]

Assuming that USA and Spain are unlikely to lose before they reach the semifinals it is imperative that other teams seeking to make the semifinals avoid Spain and USA in the 1/8 and 1/4 stage. Looking at the competition system (http://turkey2010.fiba.com/pages/eng...mpetition.html), it looks like the teams USA and Spain (assuming they finish first in their groups) will face in the 1/8 and 1/4 rounds will be:

USA: 4th place team in Group A and 2nd place team in Group C
Spain: 4th place team in Group C and 2nd place team in Group A

So it is imperative to avoid these four classification spots after the group stage. It is much better for Greece or Turkey, for instance, to finish 3rd in Group C than to finish 2nd. It is much better for Argentina or Serbia to finish 3rd in Group A than to finish 2nd.

I doubt any team will throw a game to avoid facing USA or Spain in the later rounds, but the fact remains that securing 1st place in Groups A and C is critical for the top teams in those groups, if they are to have a good chance of advancing to the semifinals.

[christodoulou76]

More on competition system

The composition of the groups makes certain classification spots more attractive than others after the end of the group stage. I have already discussed the need to avoid C2 and A2 spots. But what about other classification spots?

What are the teams one should avoid in the later stages beyond the USA and Spain? France, Serbia, Argentina, Greece and Turkey (home court advantage is important) comprise the second tier in my opinion. The third tier is comprised of Brazil (perhaps should be 2nd tier), Lithuania, Croatia, Slovenia, China, Puerto Rico, Russia, Australia (which might deserve to be in the 2nd tier if Maric plays). The rest are fourth tier.

Ideally for any team, they would face a 4th tier team in the 1/8 round and a third tier team in the 1/4 round. Is this possible? Yes, as it happens. The winner of group C will likely play Canada (D4) in 1/8 and Australia, Brazil, Croatia or Slovenia in 1/4. All other group winners will likely face a 2nd tier rather than a 3rd tier team in the 1/4. So C1 is perhaps the most coveted spot of all in the group stage. By contrast, C2 and A2 are the least coveted of all the top 2 spots in all groups. So this means that the difference between C1 and C2 is the greatest of all 1-position differences in the group stage. This makes the battle for first place in Group C the most significant of all in the group stage.

The other positions that will lead a team to face Spain or USA before the semifinals are D3 and B3, assuming these teams upset their higher ranked opponents in the 1/8 finals. So in groups D and B, it is better to finish 4th than it is to finish 3rd, if you want to advance to the semifinals.

What are the implications of this? The most important games of the group stage are those that will determine A1 vs A2 and C1 vs C2, D2 vs D3 and B2 vs B3 (again, assuming Spain and USA finish first in their groups). The most important games of the group stage therefore are likely to be between Greece and Turkey, Serbia and Argentina, France and Lithuania, Croatia, Brazil and Slovenia. Look out for these games because they will, in large part, determine which teams will make it to the semifinals and which will not. Perhaps Spain and USA will lose in the early stages of the tournament, and if that is the case than all of the above is moot. And I welcome that because it will make the tournament more interesting and dynamic. But if they don't lose until the semifinals, then other teams need to watch out not to finish in C2, A2, B3 and D3 spots.

[mvblair]

This is an absolutely fascinating topic, Christo. Thanks for your analysis.

The kind of scenario that your hint at (a team throwing a game, or losing on purpose) is not unheard of. I'm not familiar of it in the context of international competition, but this happens every year in as teams get ready for the NBA play-offs. It's very possible that something similar could happen in the WC.

[christodoulou76]

Historical precedents

This is an absolutely fascinating topic, Christo. Thanks for your analysis.

The kind of scenario that your hint at (a team throwing a game, or losing on purpose) is not unheard of. I'm not familiar of it in the context of international competition, but this happens every year in as teams get ready for the NBA play-offs. It's very possible that something similar could happen in the WC.

Thanks for redirecting my messages to a new thread, MV. Hopefully this will spark some interesting discussions around this often unspoken aspect of the competition. I was reviewing last year's France-Greece game in the Eurobasket and France seemed to try to lose the game in the second half, not playing Tony Parker and not fouling Greece in the final seconds when they were up by 3, allowing Vasilis Spanoulis to score a three pointer and tie the game. When Nando de Colo scored a tough 2-pointer to win the game for the French, he seemed distressed, as if he did not want to make the shot. The implications of the result were immediate. France, despite being unbeaten in the tournament up to that point, and certainly deserving of a semifinal spot, went on to lose in a blowout QF to resurgent Spain and Greece faced a surprising but beatable Turkey in the QF which they beat in OT. While Jeff Taylor singled out Nando de Colo's shot as his favorite of the tournament because it showed that France did not try to lose the game, the evidence suggests otherwise. While it would have been honorable for both teams to play full out for the win (and Greece appeared to be doing so), ultimately Greece's loss provided them an easier path to their eventual bronze medal.

[NorCal]

This is an absolutely fascinating topic, Christo. Thanks for your analysis.

The kind of scenario that your hint at (a team throwing a game, or losing on purpose) is not unheard of. I'm not familiar of it in the context of international competition, but this happens every year in as teams get ready for the NBA play-offs. It's very possible that something similar could happen in the WC.

I apologize as this is slightly off topic, slightly related. I remember a few years ago two teams in the NBA facing off in a late season game that would determine who would get a higher seed and who a lower seed for the playoffs. The lower seed would be facing a team that was considerably weaker than the team that would get the higher seed so both teams had incentive to lose the game.
I bring this up because a broadcaster had the idea that both teams should switch sides and attempt to score on their own basket. Now, this initially sounds ridiculous but.........given the circumstances you would presumably get a 'real' game meaning the teams would actually try to win the game instead of pretending like they are trying to win the game. It does the fans a disservice by saying 'we are going to handle this game just like any other' in the leadup to the game and then going out there and playing like its a high school pick up game with your second stringers because you don't really want to win.
Just thought it was an interesting idea so I posted it.

[christodoulou76]

Group Strength

Teams that are likely to be surprise entrants into the QF and SF are almost certainly going to come from the toughest groups in the first stage. Two reasons: they will be battle-tested for the later stages and they will avoid the tough teams in their own group in the later stages. Teams likely to leave the competition earlier than expected will most likely come from weaker groups for the same reason.

Which groups are the toughest? The toughest group, I think, is Group B with 4 solid teams in USA, Brazil, Slovenia and Croatia. This will create problems for the top teams in A and C who will face these teams in 1/8 final and QF respectively. Groups B and D are the next toughest groups with 3 solid teams each - A: Argentina, Serbia, Australia; D: Spain, France, Lithuania. This makes 1st place in Groups B and C important in order to avoid these teams in the 1/8 finals. Group C is probably the weakest 3-4, but the toughest 5-6, which means that the battle for 4th place will be fiercest in this group. Because Greece and Turkey are the favorites in the weakest group, they are most likely to face a difficult opponent in the QF, especially if they finish 2nd.

The tournament promises to be very exciting and competitive from the 1/8 on. Here is a potential set of 1/8 final match-ups:

Serbia-Croatia
France-Puerto Rico
Turkey-Canada
Slovenia-Australia
USA-Germany
Greece-Lithuania
Spain-Russia
Argentina-Brazil

A great line-up of matches, with only the USA, Spain and Turkey matches likely to be blow-outs. Brazil, Croatia and Slovenia are all dangerous teams from Group B who could pull an upset in this round of the competition.

Potential QF matches:
Serbia-France
Turkey-Slovenia
USA-Greece
Spain-Argentina

You see how important it is to win Groups A and C, to avoid Lithuania and Brazil in 1/8 and USA and Spain in QF. Under this scenario, with Greece and Argentina being upset by Serbia and Turkey in the group stage, two QF matches replicate the SF games of 06 - Argentina-Spain and USA-Greece. By contrast, the other two SF provide less favored teams (Slovenia, France) a great opportunity to make it to the SF. Of the four lower ranked semifinalists, Slovenia has the easiest match-up, which seems to confirm the notion that teams from tough groups have the best opportunity to do better than expected.

[Alyosha12]

Your posts are great to read, very thought out. Kudos to you sir.

Also man i wish your scenario comes true

[g.g]

Teams that are likely to be surprise entrants into the QF and SF are almost certainly going to come from the toughest groups in the first stage. Two reasons: they will be battle-tested for the later stages and they will avoid the tough teams in their own group in the later stages. Teams likely to leave the competition earlier than expected will most likely come from weaker groups for the same reason.

Which groups are the toughest? The toughest group, I think, is Group B with 4 solid teams in USA, Brazil, Slovenia and Croatia. This will create problems for the top teams in A and C who will face these teams in 1/8 final and QF respectively. Groups B and D are the next toughest groups with 3 solid teams each - A: Argentina, Serbia, Australia; D: Spain, France, Lithuania. This makes 1st place in Groups B and C important in order to avoid these teams in the 1/8 finals. Group C is probably the weakest 3-4, but the toughest 5-6, which means that the battle for 4th place will be fiercest in this group. Because Greece and Turkey are the favorites in the weakest group, they are most likely to face a difficult opponent in the QF, especially if they finish 2nd.

The tournament promises to be very exciting and competitive from the 1/8 on. Here is a potential set of 1/8 final match-ups:

Serbia-Croatia
France-Puerto Rico
Turkey-Canada
Slovenia-Australia
USA-Germany
Greece-Lithuania
Spain-Russia
Argentina-Brazil

A great line-up of matches, with only the USA, Spain and Turkey matches likely to be blow-outs. Brazil, Croatia and Slovenia are all dangerous teams from Group B who could pull an upset in this round of the competition.

Potential QF matches:
Serbia-France
Turkey-Slovenia
USA-Greece
Spain-Argentina

You see how important it is to win Groups A and C, to avoid Lithuania and Brazil in 1/8 and USA and Spain in QF. Under this scenario, with Greece and Argentina being upset by Serbia and Turkey in the group stage, two QF matches replicate the SF games of 06 - Argentina-Spain and USA-Greece. By contrast, the other two SF provide less favored teams (Slovenia, France) a great opportunity to make it to the SF. Of the four lower ranked semifinalists, Slovenia has the easiest match-up, which seems to confirm the notion that teams from tough groups have the best opportunity to do better than expected.

Perfect post, but is it not fact that in order to get to the medals you need to pull some big wins in all stages and throughout the tourny?
The way I see it for Greece is that they HAVE to overrun Spain for example, as well as the cloud that sits on top of Greece every time they play against Spain over the last four years. The sooner the better and the only way to do it is to play against them how many times it takes. Perhaps it is better even to face them in a bad draw 1/8 game when a defeat would mean go home very, very early. That would hurt each side lots and may be the right motivation for the job. So whatever the name is Spain or miighty US; bring them on!!!

[Straight forward]

Basically, A and C groups members are in trouble as they have good chances to meat USA and Spain in 1/8 and 1/4.

As for Lithuania, seems like we'll be able to fight for the second place with France. If we'll get it, we'll face Puerto Rico, Russia or China in 1/8 most likely (as Turkey and Greece will fight for first two spots). If we'll pass it, we'll face Argentina or Serbia most likely in 1/4. We would already be among top 8 and we would have some chances against these teams.

Conclusion: the system is pretty positive for Lithuania.

[christodoulou76]

Basically, A and C groups members are in trouble as they have good chances to meat USA and Spain in 1/8 and 1/4.

As for Lithuania, seems like we'll be able to fight for the second place with France. If we'll get it, we'll face Puerto Rico, Russia or China in 1/8 most likely (as Turkey and Greece will fight for first two spots). If we'll pass it, we'll face Argentina or Serbia most likely in 1/4. We would already be among top 8 and we would have some chances against these teams.

Conclusion: the system is pretty positive for Lithuania.

I agree. The best place to be right now is in a group with USA or Spain as long as you don't finish 3rd. If you finish 2nd or 4th you avoid USA and Spain until semifinals (assuming USA and Spain finish first). By contrast, if you are in Groups A or C, you want to finish 1st or 3rd, not 2nd or 4th as these last two spots will lead to a confrontation with USA or Spain before the SF.

[christodoulou76]

Semifinal matchups

A fact that is creeping into more and more reports about the WC 2010 (for instance, see http://turkey2010.fiba.com/pages/eng...4/article.html) is the potential match-up between Spain and USA in the semifinal stage of the competition. This is inevitable if both teams finish first in their groups (the only way to avoid it after the group stage is to lose and leave the competition early which isn't a great option). I am sure both teams would prefer to meet in the final and not the semifinal. Does either team care about this enough to throw a game in the group stage in order to finish second? Probably not but conspiracy theorists will emerge if either team loses a game most people think they should win (USA against Brazil, Spain against France). If either USA or Spain do lose a game in the group stage and finish second, that would alter the dynamics of the entire competition. Now, 1st place in Groups A or C, for instance, would no longer guarantee a Spainless and USAless path to the semifinal.

If however, Spain and USA do finish first in their groups, this creates an enormous opportunity for other teams, because it assures a Spainless and USAless path to the final (not just the semifinal) for the following teams:

A1, A3, C1, C3, B2, D2, B4, D4

On the basis of most people's predictions of how the group standings will end up, Argentina or Serbia (A1), Australia (A3), Greece or Turkey (C1), Puerto Rico or Russia (C3), Brazil, Slovenia or Croatia (B2 or B4), France or Lithuania (D2) will have a great opportunity for a run to the final.

[BrutalDlx]

Excellent read christo, congrats.

Not bothering to go into so much detail as you did, and assuming that all teams with 1-2 placing proceed to the quarters (except for D2 perhaps, Australia has a chance to knock whoever that is out), the quarters most probably will look like this (my prediction in bold):

1. (A1) Serbia/Argentina - (D2 or A3) Lithuania/France/Australia. Serbia, although talented, is not the most consistent of teams, and could be stunned by a where-did-THAT-come-from performance by Lithuania. They've done it before, they could do it again. France or Australia would have no chance imo.

2. (C1) Greece/Turkey - (B2) Brazil. Brazil will certainly cause problems inside, especially if Bourousis isn't 100%. However, their backcourt (including Huertas) can possibly be eaten alive, especially if Leandrinho resorts to his usual hasty heroics.

3. (B1) USA - (C2) Turkey/Greece. Although a tall order, Turkey can use homecourt advantage (atmosphere + refs calling travelling violations and offensive fouls on Team USA more often than with another opponent) to cause an upset.

4. (D1) Spain - (A2) Argentina/Serbia. Spain really need to bring their A-game to this match, irrespective if it's Serbia or Argentina they're facing, which will not be easy, considering their walk-in-the park group and 1/8 final (against -most probably- Germany). Grudge match.

All in all, except probably for the first one, these are all mouth-watering ties which could go either way. Can't wait.