Eurobasket 2009 Predictions!

[Straight forward]

I remember before Eurobasket 2007 that kind of thread was started way sooner- is this Eurobasket too predictable or it's a waste of time to predict anything? I'll put my view.

Top contenders:

Spain. IMHO, Pau is the best center in the world at the moment and I believe no-one can play equally with him in this Eurobasket. Spain will lack Calderon, but when I saw few games of Portland this year I understood they still have the best PG lineup at the tournament with Rodriguez and Rubio, maybe except Slovenia and Greece (If Papaloukas and DD will play). The deepest team in the tournament as well.

Slovenia Lorbek, Smodis, Nahbar, Becirovic (or Vujacic), Udrih. And we have the best offensive starting five in the tournament. I'm not sure if this team will be strong enough in the paint, but this time they have enough talent and leadership to go for the highest goals.

Greece Greece is still top contender if Papaloukas and DD will play, if not- they will have a lot of troubles. Another advantage is Kazlauskas. IMHO, he is the guy who can put some young talents in front, it's something Giannakis could never do. IMHO, the last few years clearly showed that non offensive Greek BB style can't be effective anymore. Greece continued without awards. As I see things, that's exactly what Kazlauskas will try to change firstly. Perperoglou, Printezis comes to my mind as underrated players in Giannakis schemes...

Lithuania I believe many people here would disagree to put Lithuania among favorites since Šiška and Šaras won't play. But not me Seriously, Lithuania still will have one of the deepest teams in the tournament. Kaukėnas, Bothers Lavrinovič, Kleiza, Javtokas, Jankūnas and a lot of other good options. The problem will be a point guards and leadership- I have some hope in K. Lavrinovič, Kaukėnas and Kleiza. All of these players played many playoff games and knows what it means. Hopefully, Kalnietis will step up. Bronze medal would be a fair goal for this team.

Contenders:

Croatia. I just remember them from Eurobasket 2007 and Olympics. That is the team that i would like to avoid in playoffs. I'm not sure what kind of new talent might step up, but this team is dangerous that's for sure. Vujcic might help them in last minutes games.

Serbia. One of the most interesting teams, IMHO. Full of young talents and it seems that Rakočevič will play. No idea what they can achieve, but this team will have a lot of heart.

Turkey. If Hedo will ever be ready to lead this team so the time is now Iliasova was great this season. A lot of quality players in frontcourt. Solid team for the least.

Latvia. As the head coach of Lithuania said- they should fight for final 4. I think he overdid a little bit, but this team has a really nice roster. Biedrins, Kambala, Škelė, K. Valters, Blums. They surely might make some noise.


Sorry Russian friends, but I don't see your team managing high goals without Kirilenko and Holden (disagree?), I don't see Germany anywhere near the medals. Israel might be a solid team, but still I can't say a word about their chances as well as about the rest of the teams.

PS: Sure, Italy or France might join the "contenders" section.

[Paul Nilsen]

Nice round up!

I agree with most of what you say although

Spain - have a great frontcourt and a sensational shooter in Navarro but I think they are weak in the 3 spot and their other guards are capable but no-one is anywhre near Calderon in the all round stakes

Latvia - I can't see how you can mention these as challengers. For example Gordon, Deng (if fit) , Mensah-Bonsu, Archibald, of Great Britain surely much better (in terms of pedigree and history of qualifying). Although in truth I dont think either are serious challengers!

However both Serbia and Slovenia are by no means guaranteed to get out of the group. GB are capable of winning a game against either in my opinion

Croatia have no major stars really but I do think they will be massive challengers as they just do the team thing. I like the look of them.

Turkey who knows? Anywhere from last four to bottom four! So talented but unpredictable

I cant see anybody but Spain, Greece, Croatia and Lithuania sharing the three medals

But of course, someone will surprise!

[Straight forward]

Spain - have a great frontcourt and a sensational shooter in Navarro but I think they are weak in the 3 spot and their other guards are capable but no-one is anywhre near Calderon in the all round stakes

Agree, Calderon is superb. But still Spain has so many quality ball handlers like Lopez, Cabezas that I can't see them really missing Calderon. At least, it's nothing close to the issue in Lithuania with Šaras or Greece with Papaloukas. Spain in Olympic final proved that their machine can run without Calderon very well.

Latvia - I can't see how you can mention these as challengers. For example Gordon, Deng (if fit) , Mensah-Bonsu, Archibald, of Great Britain surely much better (in terms of pedigree and history of qualifying). Although in truth I dont think either are serious challengers!

Latvia is playing together for a long time and has experience in Eurobasket + smart coach. Some of their players really improved and there's no doubt they fir better to European playing style. As for GB, I still can't see the picture of few quality NBA players making the difference in EC.

However both Serbia and Slovenia are by no means guaranteed to get out of the group. GB are capable of winning a game against either in my opinion

I think you underrating Slovenia a bit. I really remember Eurobasket 2007 when Slovenia along with Lithuania were the best teams after first 6 games and only a nightmare in 4 finals (a miracle I would say) didn't let them to reach the top. How many times they can fail again? I believe they will be at least in semis this time.

[Victorious]

Way to early to make predictions. But I'll go along.

Spain: (prediction best 1 - worse 3) Simply the best team since the WC 2006. Very strong in both offence and defence. Calderon will only be missed in the semi's and final I think. Still, should be the favorite to go all the way. Very deep team. Aside of Nowitzki, I think Gasol might be the best European player atm.

Greece (incl. Papas and DD): (prediction 1-6) It's a bit of a gamble to me, but next to Spain I think that Greece has been the most consistent team since Eurobasket 2005. Although they finished 5th last year after losing on the buzzer against Argentina, I think they presented themselves as one of the very best teams in the world. Moreover, the Euroleague F4 proved that the pool of talent of Greek players is developing. Spanoulis and especially Perperogou, Printezis and Bourousis among others seem to have developed their game. If Kazlauskas can put that in good use, I'll gladly put Greece as the second favorite behind Spain.

Croatia: (prediction 2-6) From here on it gets more tricky. I think that besides Spain and Greece, very few teams would be favored to beat them. They were one of the strongest teams during the last olympics and I expect them to be more mature and stronger.

Lithuania: ( Prediction 3-7) Lithuania is a very deep team with great tradition and great players. Saras and especially Siska will be missed, but that makes them even more unpredictable. I think that some Lithuanian talents will make their break in this tournament.

Slovenia: (prediction 3-8) (I don't know. Incredibly deep team, but even more miraculous, they somehow always choke in the quarter finals. No matter who they bring. They shure have a great offensive game, but to win championships you also need to have hard defence.

Serbia: (prediction: 4-7) This team is going to be very hard to beat. Looking for a great comeback and have a lot of talent with fighting spirit.

Turkey: prediction (4-8) This team should definately not be underestimated. Don't forget that Turkey hosts the WC in 2010 so they will come out strong. Hedo and Illyasova are in great shape and the rest of the players are very decent. They will definately go for the semi's, and have the potential to reach it. If only their guards were a little bit better, they could medal.

France: (4-9) I believe that this team has underachieved the last few years. They have the talent, are thirsty and have a lot to show.

[penzias]

Spain will lack Calderon, but when I saw few games of Portland this year I understood they still have the best PG lineup at the tournament with Rodriguez and Rubio

Sergio Rodriguez won't be there, though he should IMHO. The PG's in spanish NT will be Rubio, López and Cabezas. BTW guess what team just signed the later 2.

[arturcia]

TOP 4:

Spain - Finally, without any doubt become a champion! They were second best offensive team of the Olympic Games. And they will prove it once again in Poland.

Greece - If DD and Papaloukas will play, I think this team will seriously fight with Spain for gold. Without these two stars would be difficult, but they should win medals anyway.

Slovenia - This team is full of stars and have a chance to gain medal. Everything depends on the team coach.

Lithuania - without Saras and Siskauskas we can be only contenders to the medals. Unless Kleiza, Kaukenas or the other player will play his best career games in NT.

[greg]

Slovenia - contender with a rookie coach at this level? No way.

Greece - next disappointment is coming

Lithuania - contender? With Siska making everything in that bronze medal team two years ago? Advancing to the semi-finals thanks the Croats 8/19 from the free throw line? FORGET.

Croatia - for me they are in Greece situation from 2005 - a volcano just waiting to explode. They have about 15 players on a very good level. Still, they don't have Theo-type leader. They don't have any play-off time leader - the main problem on last EuroBasket and the Olympics.

Turkey - its very hard to be a contender with 1-2 record at first stage of competition

[arturcia]

Slovenia - contender with a rookie coach at this level? No way.

Greece - next disappointment is coming

Lithuania - contender? With Siska making everything in that bronze medal team two years ago? Advancing to the semi-finals thanks the Croats 8/19 from the free throw line? FORGET.

Croatia - for me they are in Greece situation from 2005 - a volcano just waiting to explode. They have about 15 players on a very good level. Still, they don't have Theo-type leader. They don't have any play-off time leader - the main problem on last EuroBasket and the Olympics.

Turkey - its very hard to be a contender with 1-2 record at first stage of competition

so who will challange spain for gold?

[greg]

so who will challange spain for gold?

If we are looking at the potential there is no good challenger for Spain.

Take a look at the Olympics. USA, Spain a then for long time nothing, then Argentina, Lithuania, Greece, Croatia... And that was Spain without Calderon in a good shape, without Calderon in semi-final and final. So nothing changes now.

Russia two years ago just happened. That's all. They weren't even close to the top european teams before and after EuroBasket 2007.

We've got Spain Era after Yugoslavia Era in european basketball made by World Champs '99 generation and the next generation. They just don't have luck on EuroBasket competitions. 2003 lost in the final, 2005 WunderDirk shot and Germany - another thing that just happened, 2007 Russia and Holden shot... And the same at 2004 Olympics - they won the group with Argentina, Italy, Serbia, China and New Zeland: 5-0 record. And then quarterfinals with the USA...


But who can be their best challenger? Croatia, France, maybe young Serbia?

[Victorious]

If we are looking at the potential there is no good challenger for Spain.

Take a look at the Olympics. USA, Spain a then for long time nothing, then Argentina, Lithuania, Greece, Croatia... And that was Spain without Calderon in a good shape, without Calderon in semi-final and final. So nothing changes now.

Actually, Spain was very average at the Olympics. Indeed, in the final of the olympics they played one of their best games ever. But the Spanish team under pepu in 2006-2007 played much better basketball. During the olympics Spain struggled to beat China and Germany, they were killed by the USA in the first game and played a very average game against Angola.

[greg]

Actually, Spain was very average at the Olympics. Indeed, in the final of the olympics they played one of their best games ever. But the Spanish team under pepu in 2006-2007 played much better basketball. During the olympics Spain struggled to beat China and Germany, they were killed by the USA in the first game and played a very average game against Angola.

So what?

At last they played great when they need to, not at the lower stages of competition as usual.

If they can go to the final without their best performance is it good or bad for them?

[pohani komarac]

I agree with most of things with Greg. Surprises are always posible and we don't know what will happen but only real contender is Spain.

Spain-they should take this but we will se what will happen

Slovenia-based on idividal talent they are only team that can mach Spain but it will be interesting to see will they have team chemistrey, will they choke again, and how Zdovc will lead team.

Lithuania-hard to predict anything because they will be without Sars and Siska but still they have lot of talent

Greece-also very hard to predit anything because they changed their coach and it will be interesting to see will they play typical lithuanian run and shoot basketball and haw they will adapt that or will they continiue with slow moution bb

Croatia-we have good team and great coach, but we miss one or two stars to be considerd real contender. any way i don't care as long as we keep makeing good results because in the past we had more talented players and didn't do anything. surley we can beat anybody but we can also lose from anybody. we also had big past of choking and one rip of in quater finlas. Now this players have much mere expiriance so we should do bether. I hope this time we could get to semis at least.

Serbia-young talented team and great coach should do good. They should keep this project of making new generation but they are still few years away from being real contender.

Rest...

Russia-I agree that 2007 EC just happend. especialy if holden and AK wont be here. Tukey-i just don't see that this team is capeble to play together. Their players just don't go with eachother. Germany-same as many ex yugos i admire Dirk as a player and human for love that he shows for his countrey but I doubt he is fresh a nuff to cary this team wich helpers are geting weaker.

Italy-France As for Italy I predicted this few years ago on other forum. one guy was so excited that they will finaly have good NBA players and i told him that dosen't mean you will have good NT because now they will have problems with big egos and "tired" milioners who don't play for NT.Also trio Bargnani, Belineli, Galinari are to an expirienced and they miss few good helpers. France on the other hand have problem called euro style. Their players are more suited for NBA. It's not just shooting and fundamentals it is also that most of players are tacticley weak and uneducated for euro game.

[Victorious]

So what?

At last they played great when they need to, not at the lower stages of competition as usual.

If they can go to the final without their best performance is it good or bad for them?

My point is that they are not consistent. Claiming that Spain is the only contender is an overstatement. They simply are the favorites. That's all. In every major tournament there was at least one or more games where Spain could loose.

Examples:

WC 2006:
Argentina missed the shot at the buzzer, allowing Spain to go to the final and win the gold.

EC 2007:
- Spain lost to Croatia in group fase.
- Greece nearly defeated Spain in the semi's. Refereeing very dubious.
- Russia beats Spain in the final

Olympics 2008:
Besides the losses against the USA, Spain nearly lost to China.

History prooves that their results did not come easy. What makes you so sure they are the only contender? Don't be childish.

[greg]

They simply are the favorites.

No. They are simply the best NT in Europe. With a big advantage over the second one - whichever it is.

But I've never said that it means a 100% winning of the EuroBasket.


They have the best results in the Europe through 21st century; stable roster; stars which are not saying NO to their NT (Garbajosa ruined rest of his career by playing in Spain in 2007); always playing to win (we've got no stories in type they are the best but as stars they've got no motivation), with Gasol, Navarro, Reyes, Cabezas, Lopez at their prime, playing together for at least 10 years; with Fernandez, second Gasol, Rubio rising and with other very solid and experienced players; with a good coach and with a great motivation to win EuroBasket, beacause they didn't achieve that before, beacuase they are angry after not achieving it at home two years ago.


What more do you need? Which other NT is a bit close to that situation?

[Toxicity]

Italy-France As for Italy I predicted this few years ago on other forum. one guy was so excited that they will finaly have good NBA players and i told him that dosen't mean you will have good NT because now they will have problems with big egos and "tired" milioners who don't play for NT.Also trio Bargnani, Belineli, Galinari are to an expirienced and they miss few good helpers. France on the other hand have problem called euro style. Their players are more suited for NBA. It's not just shooting and fundamentals it is also that most of players are tacticley weak and uneducated for euro game.

The problem for Italy starts and ends with coach Carlo Recalcati. Pure and simple.

Put Messina or Scariolo (or even Pianigiani) in that bench and you'll see much more... NBA players or not...