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Toruko2
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A very fair and clear analysis of Alperen Sengun. Really I am 100% with him
2021 NBA draft: Alperen Sengun has scouts vowing they won't repeat their Nikola Jokic mistake
Nikola Jokic was selected 41st overall in 2014 largely because of question marks about his defensive upside, mobility and post-heavy style of play. Despite all 30 teams watching the 6-foot-11, 253-pound center fire no-look passes, spin past defenders and drop in scoop finishes against Karl Anthony Towns and Clint Capela for a week of Nike Hoop Summit practices, evaluators struggled to conceptualize how his game and body type would look in the NBA.
Seven years later, Jokic is running through NBA competition on his way to an MVP award, and those questions are almost laughable in hindsight. As Jokic uses those same moves we saw back in 2014 against elite NBA centers such as Joel Embiid and Rudy Gobert, scouts and executives have become slower to dismiss the next wave of international big men with similar shortcomings.
As one talent evaluator put it, "no one wants to miss on another Jokic."
Enter Alperen Sengun.
To call Sengun the next Jokic would be unfair to the ultra-productive, 18-year-old, Turkish big man and projected lottery pick. Jokic's feel for the game and creativity are rare. He was also given time to develop at his own pace with a draft-and-stash season in Serbia, and landed in an excellent situation with a Nuggets team that put the ball in his hands and allowed him to make plays. He's bigger, longer and had a more modern game than Sengun at the same stage. But the 6-foot-9 Sengun, who is in the midst of a record-breaking season for Beskitas in the Turkish League, is facing some of the same questions Jokic did about his frame, paint-dominant style of play and lack of foot speed. Yet Jokic's success, combined with Sengun's quick spins, post footwork and behind the back passes, figures to bode well for Sengun, since the NBA evaluation process is so often shaped by recent trends and player comparisons.
"I watch Jokic, and I really want to play in the same style that he has," Sengun told ESPN through a translator after a practice in Istanbul. "Fadeaway, post moves. Generally, I study him. Some people say it's similar to Jokic's moves."
Unprecedented production
At this time one year ago, Sengun -- who was born in the small town of Giresun, Turkey, on the Black Sea -- wasn't viewed as a surefire NBA prospect. He weighed as much as 268 pounds at one point, heavy-footed defensively with a half-court game that lived mostly inside 15 feet. When I first evaluated him at the U16 European Championships in 2018, I wasn't sure what to make of him, as he lumbered up and down the court yet scored at will with a skill level well beyond his years.
Once COVID-19 hit and put a pause on play, Sengun cut out sweets, started taking his training more seriously and trimmed down to 242 pounds. At somewhere between 6-foot-9 and 6-foot-10 with a wingspan nearing 7 feet, he is about the same size as Kevin Love was coming out of UCLA, though Sengun is a much more explosive leaper with his newfound frame.
Alperen Sengun physical comparisons
Player Height Weight Wingspan Age
Alperen Sengun 6-9 242 7-0 18.7
Julius Randle 6-9 250 7-0 19.5
Kevin Love 6-9.5 255 6-11.25 19.8
Domantas Sabonis 6-10 238 6-10.5 19.2
Tyler Hansbrough 6-9.5 234 6-11.5 23.7
"I have a more athletic body right now," Sengun said after watching a clip of himself finishing an in-game 360 dunk he wouldn't have even fathomed trying years ago. "That's why I have to try [to dunk], and I try everything."
The never-bashful Sengun has a handful of poster dunks this season, showing off an improved leaping ability to go along with his already-stellar footwork, aggressive nature and outstanding touch. He dominated the Turkish league in his first season with Beskitas, averaging 19.4 points, 9.4 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.6 blocks while shooting 67% from 2-point range on a team that sits fifth in the standings.
According to our historical database, no other 18-year-old has ever averaged at least 19 points, 9 rebounds and 2 assists over the course of a season in Europe. Dario Saric did so as a 19-year-old in 2014, but those figures came in the lesser Croatian League without the same level of efficiency. However, this shouldn't be confused with Luka Doncic's tearing up the Euroleague as a teenager. Even the biggest Sengun fans will concede Turkish League competition isn't what it used to be. With Beskitas clearly making an effort to showcase him, Sengun is allowed to play through mistakes more than a typical 18-year-old international prospect playing big minutes.
Yet, as has been the case at virtually every stop of his young career, Sengun is producing at a high level with signature performances against respectable competition such as Fenerbahce and Jan Vesely (21 points and seven rebounds on nine shots) and Turk Telekom and Kyle Wiltjer and Sam Dekker (20 points and seven rebounds on nine shots). He also went for 24 points and 12 rebounds against Sweden during a senior national team game. Despite the level of the Turkish League being down, Sengun's production still stands out when compared to lauded international bigs before him.
Pre-draft production per 40 minutes
Player League Age
(at draft) Pts Reb Ast Stl Blk TS%
Alperen Sengun Turkish 18 27.1 13.1 3.4 1.9 2.2 70.2%
Nikola Jokic Adriatic 19 18.3 10.2 3.3 1.2 1.5 56.7%
Marc Gasol Spanish (ACB) 22 18.8 9.7 2.1 1.5 1.5 70.5%
Jusuf Nurkic Adriatic 19 28.2 13.7 1.7 2.6 2.0 61.2%
Ivica Zubac Adriatic 19 20.9 9.2 0.0 0.6 3.7 58.5%
Ante Zizic Adriatic 19 20.9 12.5 0.7 0.2 2.2 67.9%
Aleksej Pokusevski Greek 2nd 18 18.7 13.7 5.3 2.2 3.1 52.1%
Georgios Papagiannis Greek 18 22.6 9.5 1.7 0.8 2.6 68.9%
Paint dominance
Sengun does most of his damage on the interior, whether out of post ups, rolls to the rim or by pounding the offensive glass, where he can carve out space thanks to his strong frame or crash from the perimeter for tip dunks with great timing.
"I have an initial thing that I feel about rebounding," Sengun said. "Whenever they shoot the ball, I know where the ball will be. I follow the ball really well, and I feel it, it comes from inside."
Sengun is corralling 5.8 offensive rebounds per 40 minutes, and his instincts on the glass rival that of Love at UCLA or Domantas Sabonis at Gonzaga. He ranks second among the top 100 in the class of 2021 in offensive rebound percentage, behind only North Carolina big man Day'Ron Sharpe. He'll tip rebounds to his teammate, or even secure one-handed boards like we've seen from Jokic.
Beyond his work on the glass, Sengun is best operating 15 feet and in. He fights for deep post position and is already elite at spinning off of his defender as he feels him leaning in one direction or the other. He uses ball fakes, up-and-unders and scoop shots to deter rim protectors. Although not quick in a traditional sense, he's incredibly flexible for his body type, able to maneuver through tight spaces. While the natural comparison with those quick spins is Jokic, Sengun also has a lot of young Jahlil Okafor in his post-up attack. He plays off of face-up hesitations and spin moves like Okafor did in high school and at Duke, eventually palming the ball and finishing with contact. Sengun said he also studies old tapes of Shaquille O'Neal, along with Embiid, Sabonis and Jokic.
Sengun is also a physical roller with some of the best hands I've ever seen from an 18-year-old. He catches everything thrown his way, isn't afraid to try to dunk on bigs at the rim and has the short roll touch shots necessary to neutralize NBA shot-blockers. With that said, at 6-foot-9, Sengun's paint dominance won't translate seamlessly to the NBA like it has for some 7-footers before him. The same moves that work against 33-year-old bigs such as Vladimir Stimac will likely be erased by Gobert, Embiid and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Sengun also shoots almost 10 free throws per 40 minutes thanks to a generous whistle he likely won't get in the NBA. At the very least, there should be optimism that Sengun could terrorize second units with his physicality and aggressiveness like we've seen from fellow 6-9 big man Isaiah Stewart this season. Creative teams could opt to experiment with him as a mini-Jokic off the bench, playing through him in the post once he becomes comfortable on an NBA floor.
Modern qualities
Sengun struggled in the game I scouted live in Istanbul -- his first contest back after battling COVID-19 -- posting a season-low nine points on 2-for-8 shooting. Even after watching all of his film and an individual workout, that performance didn't provide a full picture for how his game could translate to the NBA, so I flew back to Istanbul toward the end of my trip to see a two-hour practice and try to get a feel for whether or not he had more modern elements to his game than we saw on film.
Turkish big man Alperen Sengun showing off his natural touch from 3 during an individual workout today. He hasn't shot many 3s this season but shoots 80% from the free throw line in Turkish League play and has excellent touch inside the paint. pic.twitter.com/BxPhCiZipX
— Mike Schmitz (@Mike_Schmitz) April 16, 2021
Watching him play 3-on-3, 4-on-4 and 5-on-5, Sengun handled the ball on the perimeter, splashed open 3s, threw no-look passes to open teammates and used ball fakes in the paint to create open shots. Sharing the floor for former collegiate standouts such as James Blackmon Jr (Indiana), Markell Johnson (NC State) and Joel Berry (UNC), Sengun was regularly the best player on the floor. Having also watched a full shooting workout on an off day, it became clear that Sengun, who is just 4-of-23 from 3 this season, will eventually make NBA 3s with relative ease, allowing him to play some as a power forward in two-big lineups, at least offensively. Sengun's 79% free throw clip is more indicative of the type of shooter he could become in time than his lack of 3s attempted this season. He doesn't lack confidence, either, as he splashed a step-back 3 in a senior national team game against Sweden.
For as impressive as his skill level was, Sengun is still a bit wild as a decision-maker in practice settings. His teammates would make fun of him early in the year for trying his best Jokic impression only to turn what could be a basic pass into a no-look turnover. But the fact that Sengun isn't afraid to take risks bodes well for his upside as a passer, and his court vision is strong enough for him to potentially reach Sabonis' level as a facilitator in the right situation.
Although most of Beskitas' talent lies on the perimeter, forcing Sengun into more of an interior role, he has the ability to eventually modernize his game as a floor-spacer, ball handler and passer, giving him considerable upside to grow into offensively. He doesn't get up and down the floor like most NBA bigs, and he clearly will be best-suited in more of a slow-it-down style, but the potential to shoot 3s and create for his teammates is all there for the skilled teenager.
How will he defend?
The biggest question Sengun faces is just how he'll defend at the NBA level. He's slow-footed on the perimeter and doesn't have the natural size to bang with the league's top-end NBA centers. He struggles to contain the ball in pick-and-roll. Players such as Jokic, Jusuf Nurkic, and Nikola Vucevic are all around 7 feet tall with big bodies and wingspans longer than 7-foot-2, allowing them to impact the ball at the rim due to their sheer size. Sengun's lack of interior size and speed guarding the perimeter might limit him to a backup role in the NBA, at least early in his career. With his physical traits the margin for error is thin, so becoming more sound with his technique, discipline and fundamentals is key.
With that said, you can't ignore Sengun's remarkable instincts on the defensive end of the floor. Similar to Jokic, he has quick hands and does a tremendous job reading the eyes of the ball handler when defending pick-and-rolls, registering 1.9 steals per 40 minutes. His anticipation is elite, and he's a risk taker on the floor, for better or for worse. He also has really good timing for blocks, covering ground quite impressively.
So, although how he fits defensively in the NBA remains a question, he has already shown instincts that are almost impossible to develop. While his physical shortcomings have him better suited for a bench role, as we've learned with players before him, we shouldn't dismiss those instincts when evaluating whether or not he can survive defensively in the NBA.
Teams shouldn't draft Sengun expecting the next Jokic. But they should make an effort to learn from the mistakes that were made when evaluating Jokic: overvaluing physical traits and undervaluing the hands, touch, instincts, feel for the game and confidence to take risks. Sengun doesn't have Jokic's size, length or elite court vision, and there's much more of a track record for Serbian prospects than Turkish prospects. Coming from a small town in Turkey where learning English isn't always a priority, Sengun still speaks little to no English, which will surely elongate his transition to the NBA.
But after watching him up close for several days and breaking down film with him, it became clear that his potential goes beyond that of a fringe NBA player. Years ago, the evaluation would have likely read: "Great for Europe." That was the thought heading into this season. as well, with Turkish power Fenerbahce heavy in pursuit. But his progression, along with the success of Jokic, is working in Sengun's favor. Of course, this can also lead to evaluation mistakes. Players such as Jokic and Luka Doncic are once-in-a-generation types of talents. We see this in other sports, too. Would Zach Wilson of BYU be the runaway No. 2 pick in this week's NFL draft if it weren't for Patrick Mahomes' success? Maybe not.
But as teams head to Istanbul to start getting eyes on Sengun for the first time this season, it's time to start putting more stock in skill level and basketball instincts when determining upside, as that's clearly where the NBA is trending, with Jokic as the prime example.
"I will do better in the NBA than here," said the ever-confident Sengun.
), you must just watch his matches for the U15 NT and compare him to Mehmet Efe Demirel(05, C/PF, Efes), check the photos next to Emin Kara(06, C, Efes), Halil Ibrahim Aksoy(05, C, Besiktas) etc. then you will see how big he is.....