I believe the Philippines have an advantage in the front court with Douthit, Aguilar, Williams, De Ocampo and Taulava that can be utilized to guard the Takeuchi twins on single coverage as Joji and Kosuke does not command a double team.
This checkmate on the front court allows the other members of the Philippines to stay at home with Japan's shooters.
While I expect Lassiter to check Kawamura in coverage.
For Japan, they need to rebound and put tremendous amount of energy on defense and getting second chance possessions while converting shots on both perimeter and distance. Since the Philippines have a strong interior defense, Japan will need to stretch the floor and rely heavily on misdirection plays alongside timely seals and drop passes to back door plays and the open shooter.
I think Philippines +12 in victory.