[Round 1 - Day 4 - Group B] Italy - Spain

[Srle2]

Tank with two more rounds to go? They have not even secured fourth place yet fcs.

Germany and Island are easy picking for them, there is no way Spain can lose to those teams .

 

[Milos.Djuric2]

Could someone create a post with all the possible/realistic scenarios from now on?

Let's go with realistic first, it's realistic for Iceland to lose against Spain and Turkey (even though everybody has a feeling that they will surprise someone).
That would make it:
SER 3-0
TUR 3-1
ITA 2-1
SPA 2-2
GER 1-2
ICE 0-5

There is 16 more combinations after this, and you can see them in the table below (1 means the "home" team wins, 2 means the "away" team wins, and after that you have the projected rankings, with only one case where we can't know the placement between 2nd and 4th place, as the necessary games haven't been played yet).


And in this table you can see the numbers game of probabilities of who will end on which spot, based on the numbers from combinations in the first table:


Don't forget all this is if Iceland loses both.
So let's go team by team:
Turkey wins against Serbia they 1st. Turkey can't go below 4th place.
Even if Serbia wins against Turkey we are not guaranteed the first spot, depend a lot on Italy. If we lose against Italy, but they previously lost against Germany then Serbia finishes first.
Spain has to win against Germany to go on, if not they are out.
If Germany wins against Spain they go on. If Germany loses against Spain but wins against Italy, they also need Italy to lose against Serbia.
If Italy loses both games and Spain wins against Germany they are out. They can also be first if Turkey beats Serbia, and Italy wins both games.

 

[christodoulou762]

I assume ESP will win both, ISL will lose both.

Key games are: TUR-SRB, ITA-GER, SRB-ITA

Who are the most likely winners of these games? That is the question.

 

[usagre2]

This is not vintage Spain. Reminds me of the 2010 world championship team that underachieved. Quarterfinals is their ceiling.

 

[Hepcat2]

Understatement of the day ;p

105 pts against Spain with only 3 turnovers is epic stuff. Might be the best game the Italian national team has ever played.

Yes, but upsetting Lithuania in the 2004 Olympic semi-final was Italy's greatest triumph.

 

[Athens Hardcore2]

I feel so damn unlucky to miss this golden thread and INTEGRAL going mental.

''Serbia and Spain are the best teams in paper,so they are going to finish 1-2 no matter what.If we win Italy and Germany there is no way we aren't hitting the jack pot aka 3rd place.If anything else happens IT'S A CONSPIRACY.
Only us have the right to rest and play at full strength just the games we want to and even if in order to get the 3rd place we have to lose to goddamn Iceland we are ready to swallow some volcano dick,no worries''.

Legit argument bros.Grats.
Actually the whole situation will be even more amazing,if the Turks somehow still finish 3rd.Chaos.I love it.

Happy for this Italian team even if it likely means Dirk is going home early(this is actually good in the bigger picture,absolutely no point to play even 1 more fucking game alongside those german scrubs).
I've never liked any Italian NT in any major sport tbh,rather the contrary for some strange reason,but I can get behind this squad.I adore the inprobable,as unpredictable as it gets element they have,even if their defense is epicly bad for big stretches of the game.
It helps that I always considered Gallo an amazing talent and I'm happy to see him performing well after some really serious issues with his knee.I just hope he wasn't stacked in that mountain tanking for the forseeable future shithole Denver,but it is what it is.With the game evolving the way it is and with the experience he's got now,he could play full time 4 and do some major damage against the best without being assraped defensively.

As for Spain,they will obviously still be an opponent you can't sleep against in knock out games,especially in a competition where after France-Serbia the rest medal contenders are far from being some sure thing and it's too early to call them legit or not,but with all the absences,their depth has gone to shit.
Some semi good names well known to the casual Euro bball fan but with redudant/non game changing abilities and skillsets.
Also with an aging Pau getting raped in every p'n'r and with Marc already out,the dude who took the decision to call Mirotic instead of defensive monster Ibaka absolutely needs a fucking medal from whichever team ends up receiving one of those.For sure.

 

[usagre2]

Excellent point about Ibaka. Makes no sense to add one dimensional Mirotic who is a second or third scoring option instead of a stud rim protector like Ibaka. I don't think Spain will ever make that mistake again.

 

[Federoy2]

This is not vintage Spain. Reminds me of the 2010 world championship team that underachieved. Quarterfinals is their ceiling.

I didn't get a chance to see the game, so I can't evaluate Spain's performance by merely looking at stats. The Spanish are clearly trending downwards. I still think they're one of the best national teams in the world, but something is amiss about their mental preparedness. Spain hasn't put on a vintage performance since the 2012 gold medal game (and even then, they struggled at times during the round robin phase--notwithstanding the Brazilian "victory"). Hard to put a finger on the problem.

 

[ncjazz2]

My one prediction for this group is that Iceland will not I repeat will not advance. There is said it.

 

[Shawshank2]

THis italian team has one most of talented team in entire team...also they are one of the brainless team in entire tournament...When those shots are fallen they are fun to watch But those dificult shots eventually will become bricks when tournaments will go on.Similiar things hapend in eurobasket2013 with Italy.Players begin to feel their legs and those ridiculous shots wasnt falling anymore.Either way this italy is dangerous as hell in one game playoffs match,basically its impossible to defend against those shots.But they wont win a medal playing like that,but they can make suprises for sure.

 

[Dacho88Nk2]

Gasol play today or rest ?

 

[Pero2]

THis italian team has one most of talented team in entire team...also they are one of the brainless team in entire tournament...When those shots are fallen they are fun to watch But those dificult shots eventually will become bricks when tournaments will go on.Similiar things hapend in eurobasket2013 with Italy.Players begin to feel their legs and those ridiculous shots wasnt falling anymore.Either way this italy is dangerous as hell in one game playoffs match,basically its impossible to defend against those shots.But they wont win a medal playing like that,but they can make suprises for sure.

I agree with most of your points. Maybe i am wrong but it looks to me that they don't pass the ball more than two or three times in 90% of their possessions and their defence looks poor atm. I wouldn't dismiss them from being a metal contender though as they might as well produce a similar offensive performance display in the knock-out stages.