Less than 24 hours after a season-ending playoff loss to the Phoenix Suns the Portland Trail Blazers – and their fans – are no doubt still smarting a little. The season began with so many signs of optimism, but health torpedoed the campaign almost before it began. Still, the Blazers persevered, and despite losing 311 player games to injury in 2009-10 (second in the NBA to the Golden State Warriors) they managed to win 50 games and earn the sixth seed in the Western Conference playoffs.
That, basketball fans, is plain amazing. Teams just don't do what Portland did this season. Sure, other teams have dealt with an amazing array of injuries before, but to win 50 games despite it all? Not only does that take skill, but it takes great leadership – players and coaches – and it takes players being strong mentally. Adapting to ever-changing lineups and rotations isn't as easy as many of us think (if it was, any team with that many injuries and some decent talent could still win games), so it's very rewarding to see a team be able to find success in that environment.
And with all of that – losing four starters for extended amounts of time (Brandon Roy, Greg Oden, Joel Przybilla, and Nic Batum) – they still stole Game 1 in Phoenix, taking homecourt advantage from the Suns. It ended up being a mirage, but it's tempting to simply say "Wait 'til next year!" with this team, presuming they will be healthy. I mean, if a team with this much adversity wins 50, then healthy they win 60, right?
Maybe. The Blazers still have plenty of flaws.
One flaw making itself abundantly clear in the Phoenix series was the limited outside shooting of Portland's backcourt. With Roy out and Rudy Fernandez a non-factor, the Blazers had no one back there capable of consistently hitting three-pointers to keep the middle open for LaMarcus Aldridge. The result? Aldridge, a 50% field-goal shooter during the season, hit only 43% from the field because the Phoenix guards could collapse quickly inside, knowing they didn't have to defend three-point shooters. Andre Miller and Jerryd Bayless are good players at the point guard spot – Bayless played very well at the two with Roy out – but they don't scare anyone with their shooting.
This leads to the second flaw – the inconsistency of Fernandez and Martell Webster. If the only game in the Phoenix series you saw was Game 6, you are thinking that's insane. However, Webster was passive the rest of the series with his drives and indecisive in his shooting, while Fernandez seemed to be just passive. Webster's issue is he thinks too much on the floor, and as a result seems to take a split-second too long to decide whether to shoot or drive when he receives a pass. When he doesn't think and only reacts his jump shot is a thing of beauty. When he shows the defense he is willing to drive, his scoring and effectiveness goes up exponentially; he just doesn't do it very often. Fernandez is a good shooter, reacts well, but has shown a tendency to not drive to the hoop in halfcourt situations.
If Webster would simply react when he plays and Fernandez would drive every so often and take a hit in the middle, it would keep defenses more honest, make Portland's reserve offense more efficient, allow more rest to guys like Roy and Miller, and make them a better team overall. Consistency is key with these two, and this season they just didn't have it.
In the frontcourt the Blazers have a very good rotation when healthy. Oden and Przybilla, when combined with Marcus Camby, Aldridge, and Nic Batum will be a tough handle for any team in the league (assuming everyone is healthy). Rookies Dante Cunningham and Jeff Pendergraph also had solid moment of contribution and proved they could be relied upon.
So if the Blazers want to improve their team, what are the options?
First up will be the 2010 NBA Draft in June. The Blazers hold the #22 and #44 overall picks at the moment, though as previous years have shown that doesn't mean anything. Assuming Portland will be looking to add a shooter to the backcourt and maybe another power forward, they could have some nice options including Daniel Orton (PF), Larry Sanders (PF), Avery Bradley (SG), and Devin Ebanks (G/F) in the first round and Craig Brackins (PF), Mikhail Torrance (G), Or Matt Bouldin (G) in the second round.
Most of those players could help Portland. However, that brings us to free agency.
Portland has $65.2 million committed to 12 players already (assuming Przybilla does not exercise his Early Termination Option, which he won't), so they are already over the cap and have only three roster spots available. One first-round pick could take one of those spots, and they will have the Median Level Exception and the Bi-Annual Exception available to use.
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It should also be noted here the extensions for Roy and Aldridge kick in for the 2010-11 season and both players will be Base-Year Compensation players. Neither will be traded or likely even the subject of legitimate trade rumors, but it's worth nothing because it means the Blazers can only return 50% of their contract value in trade, while they count 100% of value incoming for any potential trade partner. A trade using either player would have to be extremely large to satisfy current CBA rules.
Portland will also have to decide in October whether or not to pick up the 2011-12 team options on Bayless, Fernandez, and Batum. Assume this to be a formality. They also have the ability to negotiate a contract extension to Oden that would kick in for the 2011-12 season (like what was done with Roy and Aldridge last summer), though with his injury history it's likely discussions occur but nothing agreed upon. Next season will be a major factor in Oden's financial future, so he must stay healthy and be productive.
The only free agent of note the Blazers have is Juwan Howard, who played outstanding basketball in 2009-10. Expected to sit on the bench and fill in when necessary for short minutes, Howard became a starter after the injuries to Oden and Przybilla, starter 26 games and playing solid defense. He displayed veteran leadership and Portland would be ill-advised to let him go. Howard earned only the veteran's minimum - $1.3 million – this season. At 37 he may not have a ton of years left, but encouraging him to re-sign with the BAE for a year or two would be a nice thank you.
That leaves only one roster spot, which could go to a second-round pick or another veteran. Unless Portland makes a trade involving some bench players, they don't necessarily have a ready-made role available worth spending a full MLE. They might use part of it, but using it all on a player who would want 25 or more minutes a game – barring another move – wouldn't seem to make sense.
If the team doesn't draft another point guard it would make sense to use that last roster spot on a veteran point guard who doesn't expect many minutes but could provide some veteran perspective, much like Lindsay Hunter's role in Chicago the past few years. Maybe Travis Diener – a good shooter – stays in that role.
The last items on Portland offseason checklist have to do with coaching and the front office. Coach Nate McMillan is entering the final year of his contract and usually at this point coaches move on or they sign an extension. McMillan has resisted an extension to date, preferring to sign one-year deals, so perhaps we see one of those again. Or maybe the team finally persuades him to sign for three or four years, setting up some long-term stability at the position. One thing is for sure: if McMillan were ever to hit his own free agency, he'd probably have his pick of jobs.
The team also needs to decide if they are going to commit to General Manager Kevin Pritchard. He has earned the lion's share of the credit for the team's acquisitions of the likes of Roy, Aldridge, Fernandez, Bayless, and more, but a couple months back a story broke about the team not wanting him as part of their future. At the time the Blazers said they were committed to Pritchard but he would be evaluated after the season just like everyone else. That sounds a bit ominous. If the team were to part ways with Pritchard, they could likely have their pick of front office personnel looking for jobs, and Pritchard would be at the top of the wish list for any team with a GM opening.
Don't expect major changes from the Trail Blazers this summer. Instead, expect some fine-tuning around the edges and an emphasis on rehabilitation and injury prevention training. If there is a trade, it will be on the bench looking for consistency on the wings.
The future for the Portland Trail Blazers is still extremely bright, but in 2010-11 the future is now.
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