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Is the declining US economy going to kill NBA?
FoxSports said:Maybe NBA commissioner David Stern and his minions should step up the process of expanding to Europe, or else ...
Just a week ago, the latest prep sensation from Oak Hill Academy, Brandon Jennings, snubbed his nose at both the NCAA and the NBDL, signing a contract to play in Italy next year instead. Never mind the money, the 18-year-old also says the competition level will prepare him better.
Was it a smart move? We may never know the answer to that question — depending on how Jennings develops and the speed of his route to the NBA. But that's not really what all the hoopla was about. What everybody wanted to know was whether or not Jennings is an isolated incident, or merely the tip of the iceberg as more non-qualifiers for NCAA Division I opt for the glamour of international ball as opposed to lesser college opportunities or the D-League.
I think it'll be just the tip of the iceberg as long as the NBA has a mandatory one-year wait after a player graduates from high school.
And it's not just about the teenagers.
With the knowledge that former Stanford All-American and Atlanta Hawks sixth man Josh Childress has reportedly accepted a three-year deal to play in Greece over restricted free agency with the Hawks, it's time to take another look.
There's something happening here, and it's painfully clear.
The struggling U.S. economy, the ludicrous salaries of the superstars that are strangling the NBA salary cap for the mid-range players and the prospective luxury tax hanging over the heads of owners has created a change in tenor throughout the league.
Although Childress is only a potential star, he is a big name because of his status in college and position as a lottery pick. It's the kind of consideration that turns heads, and if everybody has their eyes open, they can't help but notice a lot of those international players are heading back across the pond this summer.
Just last year, Tiago Splitter turned his back on the San Antonio Spurs after they drafted him in the first round. This came just a couple of years after the Orlando Magic drafted center Fran Vasquez from Spain, only to find out he had no intention of coming here either.
This year, it's changing even more. Over the past couple of weeks, those NBA free agents with international roots seemed inclined to leap. Carlos Delfino has left the Toronto Raptors and opted for BC Khimki; Bostjan Nachbar is finished with the New Jersey Nets and is on his way to Russia to play for Dynamo Moscow; the Memphis Grizzlies were so excited about acquiring Juan Carlos Navarro last year only to find him heading home to Spain to play for Barcelona next season. And Nachbar's teammate with the Nets, 7-footer Nenad Krstic, is reportedly mulling over an overture from Maccabi Tel Aviv in the Israeli league.
The reasons are obvious. A lot of young restricted free agents are getting nothing more than qualifying offers in the $2.5-million range, and the European teams are offering them twice that money with the much stronger Euro also trumping the dollar. Splitter, meanwhile, scoffed at the Spurs' offer because — thanks to the rookie salary cap — a handcuffed San Antonio front office was only able to offer half of what he got to stay in Spain.
Juan Carlos Navarro is one of several players who have picked euros over dollars. (Rocky Widner / Getty Images)
Even on a superb young team like the Portland Trail Blazers, you have to wonder how long talented Spanish youngsters Rudy Fernandez and Sergio Rodriguez will stick around if they don't get the money and playing time when teams from the homeland inevitably come knocking on their doors.
Mostly, though, the problems are strictly financial. There are tight restrictions for young players under the salary cap rules and the enormous salaries of the superstars (between $15-20 million) make up a huge chunk of each team's salary cap. Those big deals also push teams closer to the luxury tax, which means owners have to match dollar-for-dollar for any contract that goes above the $71 million threshold.
Moreover, this has manifested in other ways. Just ask Marcus Camby, who has led the league in blocks the past three seasons for the defensively challenged Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets gift-wrapped him and his salary to the Los Angeles Clippers for a conditional second-round pick. It was a stunning giveaway, not only because Camby is so talented, but he's also a leader on the team that has had more than its share of personality problems.
Even worse was what the Phoenix Suns did with Kurt Thomas last summer. How badly did they want to get rid of his $8 million contract? They traded Thomas and two first-round draft choices to the team formerly known as the Seattle Sonics for the $8 million trade exception. The Sonics later turned him over to San Antonio for another first-round pick.
Both teams were on the cusp of luxury tax. Translation: Taxation without trophy representation equals wholesale changes.
All you have to do is consider how badly the maximum contracts of five years ago have hamstrung teams. Just look at the Nuggets with Allen Iverson, the Knicks with Stephon Marbury and the Heat with Shawn Marion — all three are at or near $20 million. How the Washington Wizards could justify the $116 million they gave to Gilbert Arenas, who is coming off surgery on his left knee twice in six months, is beyond me. And that comes after guaranteeing $50 million to an aging and battered Antawn Jamison.
Soon enough — perhaps it's already here — these real problems with shrinking revenue will change the financial face of the NBA. And that's just one more reason why Stern will make the move to put expansion teams across the pond. Not only will it put more money into the overall pot from broadcast rights and increased apparel sales, but you can be sure there will be a hefty expansion fee to pay for the right to share the NBA moniker.
So before you get all bent out of shape about who, where, when and why players are changing countries so fast your head is spinning, understand that this is just the beginning. The only way to stop the bleeding is to join forces. That way, the money will ultimately touch everyone's hands, and the unavoidable revenue sharing will come in many denominations.
In the meantime, this summer will continue to have surprises, only to be outdone by next summer and the summer that follows that. And it'll continue that way until the NBA begins international expansion. The commitment has to come soon.
