Lithuanian Shooting Guards

[Straight forward2]

Only if Buzelis becomes the first or second scoring option of an NBA team. Your starting five has nobody who could create for himself. Shooting is still a big problem but your talent level increased without a doubt. Another point is Sabonis who has not delivered anything yet.

Generally I agree with you. But that's if you ask truly perfect team. We do know what kind of team won 2022 Eurobasket I drew much more talented and deeper team.

But also I disagree with you a little bit because of 2 things. I think Rubstavicius can bring certain amount of ISO creation with his shake and bake moves and explosive first step and he's really comfortable absorbing the contact. I do believe that Murauskas has a chance to become one of the most dangerous Euro forwards in ISO situations and there's still Brazdeikis who will be pretty nice coming from the bench in his prime. So while there's only Buzelis as true world class ISO presence potential, there's still secondary ISO presence bunch available in this roster.

Second, there's many intagibles on this roster as superior creation for others (Jokubaitis, Sabonis, Buzelis), nice defensive upside (except 5 position), Lithuanian fundamentals (super unselfish ball movement, balanced in and out game, pick and role). In other words, I still believe that we have a slight edge in terms of team culture compared to most other NTs. Previously it has been bigger factor than it is now with increased ISO talent in FIBA and increasing intensity, but with growing talent this factor still can be very impactful.

Shooting wise, we might want to have even better team, but mind that Lithuania shot the ball 40% in WC 2023, No.1 in the tournament. Rubstavicius thus far is 50% shooter in Australia, Sirvydis 42.6% in Eurocup, Jokubaitis is 43.3% EL career shooter. Maybe we won't be a great shooting team, but I disagree that shooting is a big problem on this roster. Don't see it. Specially if Buzelis turns out to be on the better side of it (he has been projected as capable shooter for his size last season, but so far in G League the trigger is off, so we'll see). Besides, I think heading forward (2028 and further) the important guard will be Jakucionis. Terrific shoot first PG which will only improve our shooting profile.

I mean, Lithuania won't fill the perfect team, not ever. We never did it. 90s team had short bench. 00s team was filled with elite EL quality and pretty deep, but lacked world class players. 20s team won't be perfect, like USA sometimes can collect, but it has a chance to be the best ever, IMO, if Buzelis turns out to be versatile NBA starter.
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[Toruko2]

You need at least two NBA star level player if you want to win a medal and good Euro guys who can fill some gaps. You cant rely on Murauskas or Rubstavicius if you play against SGA etc. We are talking about being a true contender not about the chance to win something. You need someone who can finish in the last 10 seconds. Its that simple.

Another thing is the lack of glue guys. You might have better perimeter defenders but putting either defender or offensive players you wont win anything. You need a guy (at least) who can do both on the court on a very high level.

I acknowledge the development of Sedekerskis. I do believe that a Jokubaitis will be better in time but atm I dont see a contending team. Not with this Serbia, France, Spain etc.

Paolo Banchero is for instance a top 10 NBA player. If Italy had got him, it would have increased their potential exponentially. You need true game changer, its that simple. We can count Sabonis as one but he has too many liabilities defensively.

 

[Straight forward2]

You need at least two NBA star level player if you want to win a medal and good Euro guys who can fill some gaps. You cant rely on Murauskas or Rubstavicius if you play against SGA etc. We are talking about being a true contender not about the chance to win something. You need someone who can finish in the last 10 seconds. Its that simple.

Another thing is the lack of glue guys. You might have better perimeter defenders but putting either defender or offensive players you wont win anything. You need a guy (at least) who can do both on the court on a very high level.

I acknowledge the development of Sedekerskis. I do believe that a Jokubaitis will be better in time but atm I dont see a contending team. Not with this Serbia, France, Spain etc.

Paolo Banchero is for instance a top 10 NBA player. If Italy had got him, it would have increased their potential exponentially. You need true game changer, its that simple. We can count Sabonis as one but he has too many liabilities defensively.

I don't particularly think you need 2 NBA star level players. Germany won it all with one fringe NBA star Wagner in WC. Schroder is not an NBA star, never was. Is Lorenzo Brown particularly a world class clutch player? God, no I mean he's simply elite EL guard, but nothing more, and his greatness came from manipulating with pick and roll action in the first place. So I wouldn't say it's so badly impossible to win without world class ISO freaks as KD, Lebron, Doncic and so on. Look at Serbia, they reached the final with best player Bogi, who is a role player in the NBA...The second best player was freakin' Milutinov with all due respect.

OK, if we speak about being absolutely consistent and deadly contender, like now USA and Canada with their A rosters can be anytime (and maybe France will reach that level in the future), then YES. If your goal is to equally compete with A rosters of USA and Canada, you need 2 NBA stars and something like that.

But let's look at Serbia. Who is sure fire NBA star after Jokic? Probably their best chance is Topic, Jovic is pretty nice, but there's no sure fire star or superstar potential.

Spain? No such player. Gonzalec, Nunez, Almanza and such are nice, but no NBA stars if you ask me.

France has Wemby, OK he can be special. Will he be exactly perfect option to close the games? I'm not entirely sure.

Australia has ISO freak star? I don't know them yet.

Germany has Wagner, but I'm not sure they can sustain current talent pool for long stretch.

So basically aside USA and Canada, I don't see any teams who can field 2 NBA stars. Maybe France, but we'll see.

I think you overephasize that star power necessity. It's not like since now every team will have a tall guard of Lerbron and Doncic (Slovenia is too thin to win) level.

 

[Toruko2]

Germany won it all with one fringe NBA star Wagner in WC. Schroder is not an NBA star, never was.

He is probably the best slasher in the entire NBA. Thats enough.

Is Lorenzo Brown particularly a world class clutch player? God, no I mean he's simply elite EL guard, but nothing more, and his greatness came from manipulating with pick and roll action in the first place.​

I wouldnt count Eurobasket as an example. Spain is no 1 in the rankings and had an easy path. It wont happen again.

So I wouldn't say it's so badly impossible to win without world class ISO freaks as KD, Lebron, Doncic and so on. Look at Serbia, they reached the final with best player Bogi, who is a role player in the NBA...The second best player was freakin' Milutinov with all due respect.

My arguments are based on the best possible teams.

But let's look at Serbia. Who is sure fire NBA star after Jokic? Probably their best chance is Topic, Jovic is pretty nice, but there's no sure fire star or superstar potential.​

Why thats one of the reasons why Serbia couldnt win the important games but Jokic is a force by himself even if you cant use his versatility. I think Serbia had never the chance to use Jokic with Bodgdanovic after Jokic became a true star. We have to discriminate the cases NBA star and European star.

Its the same case with Schroder and Wagner. Schroder and Bodganovic might not be stars in the NBA but they are stars in Europe.

Spain? No such player. Gonzalec, Nunez, Almanza and such are nice, but no NBA stars if you ask me.

Not just if I ask you... its a fact right now but Spain has enough potentials. They have enough difference making potentials in Europe. from Almansa to Baba Miller, Aday Mara to Gonzales to Saint Supery. Especially the bigs are special.

France has Wemby, OK he can be special. Will he be exactly perfect option to close the games? I'm not entirely sure.

The only question about Wembanyama will be "can he stay healthy. If yes he will be the most dominant defender in the history of basketball. Amazing defensive upside.

I think you overephasize that star power necessity. It's not like since now every team will have a tall guard of Lerbron and Doncic (Slovenia is too thin to win) level.

OK, maybe I was not discriminating enough. You need a difference making backcourt player. A Micic, Bogdanovic, Schroder level guy. Thats for sure.

 

[Straight forward2]

Why thats one of the reasons why Serbia couldnt win the important games but Jokic is a force by himself even if you cant use his versatility. I think Serbia had never the chance to use Jokic with Bodgdanovic after Jokic became a true star. We have to discriminate the cases NBA star and European star.

Yes, Jokic is the best basketball player in the world ATM and it's not a debate. Potentially Jokic and Bogi + A roster of Serbia could challenge even A USA roster, just as Spain did in 2008, 2012. But also Jokic turns 29 this summer and his availability wasn't particularly perfect. So for now they have it, but Jokic is not exactly long term piece anymore either. After Bogi and Jokic will step down, there's a question if Serbia can sustain the same level. In the cause of LTU, Sabonis is a bit younger, and more available than Jokic, so Sabonis and Buzelis can collect 2-4 tournaments together I believe, having a good supporting pieces next to them.

Its the same case with Schroder and Wagner. Schroder and Bodganovic might not be stars in the NBA but they are stars in Europe.

OK, maybe I was not discriminating enough. You need a difference making backcourt player. A Micic, Bogdanovic, Schroder level guy. Thats for sure​

I agree, but that's not 2 NBA star level players as you wrote initially.

We'll see how things will develop. F.e. Jokubaitis is a bigger prospect than Micic was (higher drafted, Rising EL star for several years and so on), just that Micic made a huge leap coming to his prime and it turned out that he has high ceiling for European basketball. Besides, I kinda feel that Rubstavicius is underrated. He can be a FIBA star if you ask me. Maybe not on Bogi, Schroder, Mills level, but might end up close. I can see him going for efficient 18-20ppg in FIBA when he will be finished product. IDK how things will turn out, but I hope that Sabonis + Buzelis and elite EL level players as Jokubaitis, Rubstavicius (+ quality EL level bench) will be enough to contend. Such small country as Lithuania simply can't expect anything more than that. Actually I believe that if most upcoming talent (1998-2007) will pan out, it will be a little miracle for our country, cause it, IMO, will exceed the talent of 90s, 10's as a total. It won't exceed individual talent of A. Sabonis, S. Marciulionis, Karnisovas, Kurtinaitis, I think this 4 stars punch will remain the best ever, but as very quality and deep 12 pieces, LTU might have he best talent pool in 2027-2035 or so. This stretch is special and when you compare to the previous one, the poor one, it looks like amazing contrast. So far no-one truly busted. The biggest disappointment is probably Kulboka, but even he didn't yet reached his prime and was 15ppg kinda player in Eurocup. And I expected more from Velicka at some point, nevertheless he will be intriguing borderliner in his prime, good piece for depth when there will be many absences and injuries.

​Not just if I ask you... its a fact right now but Spain has enough potentials. They have enough difference making potentials in Europe. from Almansa to Baba Miller, Aday Mara to Gonzales to Saint Supery. Especially the bigs are special.

Yeah, good prospects, the same Nunez can be added and couple of more guys, but I don't see next Doncic, Giannis, Jokic (highest tier) or even F. Wagner, Buzelis tier particularly. So we'll see.

​The only question about Wembanyama will be "can he stay healthy. If yes he will be the most dominant defender in the history of basketball. Amazing defensive upside.

I agree. He will be the best defensive player in the world. But I'm not sure he will be particularly stunning in ISO situations offensively. I need more expressed ball handler for such job.

 

[Toruko2]

We'll see how things will develop. F.e. Jokubaitis is a bigger prospect than Micic was (higher drafted, Rising EL star for several years and so on), just that Micic made a huge leap coming to his prime and it turned out that he has high ceiling for European basketball.

Initially Micic was a superb prospect but he suffered two injuries and couldnt get along well with the coach in Munich who is the Serbian NT coach rn.
Then he went to Tofas to Turkey and made his leap to LTU. What I am trying to tell is Micic was a great prospect but couldnt develop in younger ages because of injuries.

I am not that optimistic about Jokubaitis. I dont think that hell ever reach a level of being EL MVP.

Besides, I kinda feel that Rubstavicius is underrated.

Rubstavicius is indeed very interesting. I havent watched him that often tbh but his U20 tournament was impressive. He even showed a certain level of self creation but I dont think that hell turn out to be an iso guy but you never know.

Yeah, good prospects, the same Nunez can be added and couple of more guys, but I don't see next Doncic, Giannis, Jokic (highest tier) or even F. Wagner, Buzelis tier particularly. So we'll see.

Big believer in Baba Miller

 

[Straight forward2]

As expected, latest great Rubstavicius stint made a lot of fuzz around him. People already discussing whenever he's a first rounder. Some see him there like this guy - https://twitter.com/fra_sempru/status/1743293425674264595 and some sees him more of a second rounder after lengthy analysis, really nice job, it takes a bit to read everything, but really worth it. With most I agree, but I don't want to see him play 4 ever, not even for shortest stretch God help another NBA club would try to do what did with Kulboka. Off course, Kulboka's profile was a bit different, but still, no bulk Rubsta, stay lean and play the 2. Forcing Rubstavicius to bulk his upper body and to lose guard skill, would be the biggest slap to LTU BB face. I want him to stay lean, he has very interesting combination of length and mobility/skill. Also a slight rawness at this age was named as something what could lower his draft stock, but I disagree - he's a latebloomer and actually has a nice upside and the upside rises your draft pick. Here's the scouting report: https://edemirnba.substack.com/p/mantas-rubstavicius-scouting-report

Bleacherreport puts at 38#. I feel like his current (and likely overall) range is 26-40 picks. Hope he can bully his way to the first round and get real contract instantly.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles...d-predictions-major-competition-for-no-1-pick

 

[Straight forward2]

Pretty nice to see that NBA headlines Nojus Indrusaitis as a franchise player of Brewster Academy as they face future No.1 pick Cooper Flagg and his Montverde Academy. Here's the live game link, the game starts in 9h hours. I believe the game's record will remain on the channel, so one can watch it later too. Curious how Indrusaitis looks, specially when playing next to freak like Cooper Flagg:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZIIGgQIQsjY&ab_channel=NBA

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[Straight forward2]

Watched that game and Brewster academy was way outclassed by Montverde. Way bigger and more athletic team, just unstoppable in transition and simply bigger and stronger. Indrusaitis had a so so game, missed some doable shots, looked a bit lethargic here and there, but still finished with 16pts or so. IMO, he's clearly the best player on his team and plays a lot. Interesting, they play 4 quarter with 8 minutes. It was nice to see that Cooper Flagg was guarding Nojus most of the times, it shows that the opposing coach choose him as the key opposing scorer. Nojus couldn't do much against ridiculous size and great motor of Flagg. Flagg will be a beast. He has unmatched motor at both and and will be a problem. Maybe he's not as smooth as Buzelis, f.e., but he is tougher, more dominant and even more athletic with sensational motor. So Nojus was hesitant to be active against him, got blocked one time heavily and his teammates looked lost and couldn't deal with opponents size. Now, Nojus progressing nicely nevertheless. I think he's the top scorer of the team, I don't have exact number and shoots 42% from the three which is great, and commentators mentioned he is a candidate to certain award this year. He also recently was elected as 2024 McDonald’s All American Game Nominee.

What stood out from his game, is how easy he becomes a threat with few moves off the dribble. He's the best pull up mid range shooter SG prospect in the country, smooth as fuck and exceeds both Rubsta and Lelevicius at this point. His mid range stroke is just perfect and he hits it with good accuracy. He is also very crafty finishing near the basket and possesses enough of athleticism to finish pretty strong. I don't think he has as much explosiveness in his first step as Rubstavicius (and that's where Rubstavicius is special, he has elite explosiveness and superior length), but Nojus is pure SG, not a wing (as Rubsta, Lelevicius), and has superior mobility, shiftness and pure guard skills. Nojus is 6-5 guard and he will remain as so it seems.

When it comes to creating his own shot, I would give an edge to Indrusaitis, not Rubstavcius, even though it might be close. Indrusaitis has that American ISO scoring mentality and he has tools to be effective with it. Some cross overs are nasty, the brakes are nasty here and there, he gets people out of their shoes. Not a world class ISO player, but probably the most gifted and talented ISO scorer from all LTU guards (have to figure Butka more later on though).

What I didn't like that despite being solid defensively, his motor wasn't entirely convincing. Rubstavcius has higher motor at both ends and that's his huge advantage. I think Indrusaitis is more talented, but Rubstavicius has bigger lust for the game and more complete profile in terms of consistent effort. He lacked aggression here and there at both ends and his three point shot to be still needs polishing in terms of consistency. He missed couple of shots too much.

To some up, I still treat Indrusaitis as the most talent, but not necessary the most impactful upcoming SG for the future of the NT. He he can elite in Europe without a question, has absolutely perfect profile for SG and he doesn't need to bother about his position, it's crystal clear, but I also think he might have a shot in contemporary NBA because of how easy he gets his shots off and how natural the scoring is for him. In NBA he wouldn't have any obvious advantages, but also a smooth and clear profile at 2, high level three way scoring threat and adequate defense. I do think some NBA teams could use him off the bench. If not NBA, he's an instant gem for any EL team.

Looking forward to see how much Jakucionis, Indrusaitis and Butka will mess around in U18 EC this summer. Three absolutely elite guards. Obviously first 2 should be big time leaders and carry the team to gold. They snatched U16 stage, now it's time for U18 in their age group.

 

[Dreamcatcher2]

They snatched U16 stage, now it's time for U18 in their age group.

By the way, Laurencikas who IMO was MVP of that team seems to be "out of the game" and it looks like he won't be a very good player.

 

[Straight forward2]

By the way, Laurencikas who IMO was MVP of that team seems to be "out of the game" and it looks like he won't be a very good player.

He was, both overall statistically and clearly the best player of the final. It's really interesting. In that final against Spain he looked most posed, gutsiest, and matured player on the team and later his development got out of hand. He looked lost with U18 team and now looks lost with Zalgiris 2. I don't think he's done as a prospect, but really bad stretch for him. Injuries also played a role here obviously. I didn't mention him because the same Buika, one year younger, looks much better in Zalgiris 2. While Laurecikas went down, Jakucionis and Buika skyrocketed and Indrusaitis remained on the same high note. Also looking to that U18 upcoming team, Mantas Juzenas will play much bigger role than he did playing for golden team previously. Now he drops 10ppg in NKL and already showed some nice strides last summer with U18. I don't see much upside for PRO, but he will surely help to win now.

What's with Smirnov BTW? He was interesting grinder and energy guy for U16, sort of physical glue guy a little bit. He changed Rytas2 team to Kretinga and doesn't do all that much in NKL. Probably another guy who hasn't been developing nicely.

Another possible addition to golden 2006 could be Rytas2 player Gantas Krizauskas. I saw only one game of his, not an elite prospect, but close to that. Putting up 14ppg, and Rytas had him on the bench his last LKL game against Wolves. Previously he didn't make the team, but maybe now he will. Guard position is stacked though already.

A lot will depend how Raupelis will look. He was the key big for this small ball powerhouse NT. Someone has to clean the boards and rebound. Nevertheless I think Jakucionis, Indrusaitis, Buika punch will be deadly. So much talent from perimeter, it should be unstoppable, and there's still such players as Juzenas, Laurencikas to add even more depth. Crazy perimeter upside. Gold is all that I expect, anything lower is a disappointment.

 

[Straight forward2]

Rubstavicius continues to provide really good numbers. 15pts in the last game. He had only one bad game out of recent 10 when he started to get consistent role. Impressive consistency, specially knowing he's a rookie, new league and so on. I think he might be a steal in the NBA draft if he ends up in the second round. But his chances now to be drafted relatively high seems very real. The consistency and everything is there:

-We’ve got to talk about Mantas Rubstavicius. The 6’6” New Zealand Breakers wing has done a phenomenal job and should be getting more attention. He’s scoring 9.6 PPG on tidy 56.6/44.4/82.1 splits. That three-point percentage is stellar, but he’s been good at the rim as well. He also has the necessary connective feel for a role player and can spray it out to the perimeter if he doesn’t like his look at the cup. On defense, he’s long and imposing guarding the ball. He’s up to the task physically and is always throwing his body on opponents. When he has to rotate, he covers ground well and changes directions well. Because he missed the NBL Blitz, he didn’t benefit from the early hype that many other players competing in Australia this year were blessed with. But that doesn’t mean he can’t play, and if you haven’t checked in on him yet, you should do so.
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https://www.noceilingsnba.com/p/the...ards?r=91p0w&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

 

[Straight forward2]

Rubstavicius with 12,7ppg in his last 10 games. And he shoots freakin' 53% threes. This is more than good, this is elite. I wonder how his kicking legs forward will work in the NBA/EL. It definitely working for him in Australia. I remember he got some tech fouls for falling down after the shots in LKL and I think U20 as well. He always looks for contact and a chance to fall after his shot if possible to receive 3+1 That's the skill. But I'm not sure now it's legal in NBA, after Harden's campaign. The dude has to be in the NT camp, if his draft stuff won't stand in a way:

https://twitter.com/NBLNextStars/status/1749229150064296252

 

[Straight forward2]

There's fun stat that when Rubstavicius has 15+, Brakers are 5-0. All wins. Young fellow is impactful.

It's interesting that NBL ends in February 18. So less than I month left. I wonder if Rubstavicius will sign with some LKL club or any club for the remaining of time. Imagine he comes back to mess with Lietkabelis for the remaining time. Rubsta at 2 and Sirvuha at 3, that would be a spectacle

BTW, how things changed for Grigonis. Now he's one of local public favorites and some fellows in interbasket called the worst signing of PAO history or whatver last season

https://twitter.com/euroleague_time/status/1749521497587150925

 

[Straight forward2]

2002 gen cooking 17pts game.
https://twitter.com/NBLNextStars/status/1751444419193323584

I'm really starting to believe Rubstavicius is a must in the NT this summer. I have a feeling he would legitimately challenge every single SG/wing on the team, including Grigonis, Brazdeikis, Sirvydis. Just unleash the young stud in the camp and see how he messes around. He's the best SG prospect in centuries.

 

[Straight forward2]

I would be so pissed if it was 10's and we sill missed Lukosius. Horrible job by previous federation (Spokas and Sabonis) to let this gem go. Since we most likely have all time greatest SG depth talent pool coming, it's easier to let him go, but he's really really talented. Has a lot of natural talent, really can be compared to Doncic feel of the game to certain (obviously lesser) extent, but he is a bit of "jazz" player out there. He instictively manipulates and dances with the ball in the court. Hit huge shots down the stretch and basically game winner with 20sec to go in ISO situation. Playing for very strong NCAA team Cincinnati and averaging 9.5ppg with 42.4% of free and 3.3as. Still a lot of room to improve as he's a late bloomer:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=emQ0xxZcgSY&ab_channel=SublimeBasketball

Hope federation still make a move on him. He would cement NT depth for incredible luxury of guard players.

 

[Straight forward2]

Lithuanian "bucket". Aesthetically Nojus has the most flawless scoring profile of all Lithuanians. Like he does it with a jazz/swing rhythm, effortless shooting form, grace and soft touch. Very comfortable taking a shot in any situation basically.

It will be very interesting to find out who will prevail as top scoring guard (I will always treat Buzelis as versatile forward, as well as Sirvydis) of Lithuania in upcoming 15 years. Today's my odds would look like this:

1. Jakucionis
2. Rubstavicius
3-4. Indrusaitis/Buika
4-3. Buika/Indrusaitis
5. Jokubaitis
6. Lelevicius
7. Brazdeikis

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hq3yVTQjhIY&ab_channel=MADEScouting


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[TechnoProfiles2]

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[Straight forward2]

2007 D. Buika just turned 17yo and seems to be braking out in NKL last month. Some big games with +20eff and in last month or so (last 9 games), he has 14eff per game which makes him the best guard in the Zalgiris 2 despite being so young. I'm very curious about his upside. This season he has been basically playing as 16yo in NKL and his upside is really high. ATM, I have no proper vision how his body and skillset will develop. This summer will answer more if he will suit with golden 2006 generation in U18 EC. There's also U17 this summer, right, so it's uncertain if he shows up. Anyway, really talented guard and I have him among top 5 most gifted LTU guards ATM with Jakucionis, Rubstavicius, Jokubaitis, Indrusaitis.

Upcoming ANGT tournament will give some more INFO as well.

 

[Straight forward2]

D. Giedraitis slowly putting things together in EL and already is elite perimeter defender, likely one of top 3, top 5 in whole EL. He's slowing down the best guards of EL. His offensive confidence is growing, but next step for him is to start making shots closer the basket. He needs to polish a floater, I agree with the author of this video. He has it, but he needs to polish it cause he has no athleticism and size to finish with contact a lot inside. Spot on video, just the beginning was a bit incorrect. Dovis in Estudiantes already was hired to guard best opponent's guards. That's when I started to preach that he will be a heck of defender. Even back than he already was good one. I want to see one day Marciulionis and D. Giedraitis coming off the bench together. OMG That would be a dog fight. They would lock perimeter defense and would bully their opponents at D end:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P2LOL7KOW0E&ab_channel=BallDžiunkis