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Lithuanian Shooting Guards

  • Thread starter Thread starter Straight forward2
  • Start date Start date

Lithuanian Shooting Guards

  • L. Lelevicius

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • D. Buika

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Other

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    4
S

Straight forward2

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I have a dilemma. I see 5 pretty much elite or boderline elite at the very least (depending on your criteria) SGs in the horizon and I can't definitely decide on their upside, so I think this place will be proper spot to discuss these matters explicitly. I will add the poll and will very much be interested in your opinions, since I know some foreign guys have opinions on the too:

Here's how I rank top emerging players/prospects, but I have a huge doubts and controversies in my mind. Yet here we go:

1. Nojus Indrusaitis. IMO, most complete and potentially the best SG. Has nearly perfect combination of athleticism and smoothness/skillset. Three ways scorer without any drag up. Very shifty and very scoring minded (sometimes looking for his shot in the traffic too much just as Iggy), but differently than Brazdeikis he plays with his head up and can dish other, very natural feel for the game, including team communication and decisions. He has equally strong profile defensively. Changes directions well, his IQ allows him to be solid help defender, despite not elite lateral quickness he has everything to be good defender with those long limbs and IQ. Issues: so far slender frame (same issue as Rubstavicius'), a bit hesitant cutter and mover without the ball, three point shooting consistency. Yet all those concerns are nearly reductionist, he basically has it all. Maybe I would yet question his willingness to be No.1 guy mentally. He seems competitive, but generally calm guy.

2. Mantas Rubstavicius. And here's where the tricky part starts. I have no idea who is better - Rubstavicius or Lelevicius (or even Buika). Rubstavicius established himself as legitimate NBA prospect, at least when it comes to the tier of international guard prospects, and exceeded as top scorer with relentless motor offensively and defensively. Offensively I would ask a bit of more mid range game from him compared to all the tricks Nojus provides in this area or even Buika (specially nearer the basket), but he probably exceeds with his explosiveness and grittiness and go get to attitude even more than Indusaitis. Has elite first step and feel for easiest ways to score. Elite athlete for Euro at his position. And where Rubstavicius exceeds Indrusaitis is passing. He is nearly perfect passer for SG position, can initiate p'n'r plays and so on. Defensively he is not so naturally gifted as Indrusaitis, but he has even higher motor and wilingness to hustle, so with his long limbs and tremendous motor he will at the very least be solid defender. IQ wise I even give an edge to Rubstavicius, he has more team play fundamentals than pro American school Indrusaitis, and I think on the court he has leader's mentality, plays with a swagger, but overall I still think that talent wise Indrusaitis still has an edge.

3. Liutauras Lelevicius. He may be the best athlete of all three and has the best size. This is very big advantage. His three point shooting seems to be developing into really reliable form. He is very explosive with his first step from perimeter. Very comfortable with mid-range games, multiple jimmies. Can dunk on people and probably lives with the contact in traffic just as well as Rubstavicius (Indrusaitis here should still work a bit) if not better. However, I believe Lelevicius has a little less craftiness finishing nearer the basket, a little bit less true guard skills than Indrusaitis/Rubstavicius/Buika have and most importantly he's a bit worse defender than both Indrusaitis/Rubstavicius. At the end of the day Lelevicius may be the best offensive player of all three, it's possible, and that may exceed his little inferiority defensively compared to players above, but that will be seen later. Again, intelligent, talented player with some leadership qualities. Not 100% leader's mentality, but shows some traits of the leader nevertheless.

4. Ignas Brazdeikis. Everything is already said. He is elite slasher and physical guy for his position. He can score three ways, but struggles with shooting sometimes. He's not a good team defender, even bad probably. He struggles with decisions sometimes, not a good facilitator (even though improving obviously). The best news about Iggy that he showed he's learning, improving. Yet natural IQ, feel for the game and shooting limitations make you wonder whenever he will truly become elite SG in Europe and will be important player of top EL teams. Essentially I see him more as a role player of top teams in EL and NT, sort of instant offense from the bench, but I will be happy of Iggy gradually improve and become something more than that.

5. Dovydas Buika. His development in one year has been sensational. 15yo he was one player, 16yo already different animal. Added a lot of explosiveness and sharper skill. Super shifty and slippery, has sensational fingers for difficult lay-ups and trick shots. Has elite body control in off balance situations, finishing with a contact. Shows sensational handles for SG position if that will truly happen to be his natural position, can really pass the ball and create (I would say has a chance to be elite in this part), but tends to make too risky passes yet so turns the ball a lot (which is OK for now). Has too main issues ATM - questionable shooting (even though I think he will be solid) and a bit of a tweener positionallly. 194cm. is more of PG size. It will depend a lot whenever he will add some height more or not. He's so young that it's hard to say yet how his athleticism will pan out, but I see him as more agile, shifty and explosive than Grigonis f.e. Buika may lack a degree of athleticism to become legitimate NBA prospect, but he may be just as talented to become such in upcoming 2-4 years. I put him at 5th position only because he's still so young and will take many development arcs in upcoming years. Iggy's floor probably always was and still is higher, but I have Buika as the guy with higher upside. Great combination if skill, IQ, and relentless scoring thirst. Can be a bit of a ballhog, but that's very much fixable.

Three guys who I like a lot, but are one tier lower - D. Giedraitis, M. Jogela and I. Sargiunas (not including Sirvydis as I think he's 3). Those most likely will remain as valuable boderliners of NT and if that's true, our talent will be going off charts in 20s, cause D.Giedraitis is barely worse prospect as some R. Seibutis f.e. Yeah, probably half a step smaller prospect, but you can easily go for pros and cons comparing those 2.

Give me your opinions in the poll and the thread. Who's gonna be the best LTU SG this decade.
 
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Bad news from Rubstavicius side. He's missing pre-season with injury. Not a good scenario for a rookie in competitive environment. He needed that pre-season and specially sucks when he even skipped NT because of individual work outs. We do rememeber how D. Giedraitis struggled with Zalgiris while missing the start of the season. Before the season with Lietkabelis, Rubstavicius struggled with injuries in NKL. Usually sprained ankle and such, so nothing super serious, but he tends to be a little injury prone. I was planning to watch tomorrow's game of Breakers, but Rubstavicius out for 4-6 weeks more. He has been out for around 2 weeks already at least cause he missed first friendly game on Sep 3.

Groin injury has to be painful when you think...Specially if you out for more than a month because of that...

https://twitter.com/NZBreakers/status/1702910183331058078
 
Here's Indrusaitis highlights of his MVP campaign in BWB. He gets the shot off super easily. Off the dribble jimmy looks as smooth as it nearly gets. Some people sees him as potential NBA piece, some don't. I think after next summer's U18 of his own age group we'll be able to make clearer assessment. Still question how his physicality will translate and won't he became slower and less crafty once he adds more muscles and mass. Varnas looked really good as 18yo for example, not on the level of Indrusaitis, but close. Later he collapsed with added weight. So we have to wait, but I see Nojus as boderline NBA prospect at the very least:

https://twitter.com/PDTScouting/status/1703112195653914812
 
Mintautas Mockus shouldn't be overlooked as well. I have him in that second tier with Giedraitis, Jogela, Sargiunas and such. Mockus has narrow, but sturdy, tough frame and accelerates pretty nicely, fairly flexible and most importantly athletic (advantage against some-one like D. Giedraitis). Playing with 100% hustle and seem not to care about any authorities. Have a bit of A. Butkevicius and Seibutis vibes around him, should be determined to work to his best version on the court. U20 lacked him this summer to secure some sort of medal:

https://twitter.com/CBB_Europe/status/1678796401206087680
 
Couldn't catch Zalgiris2- Rytas2 game, but Buika showed a bit of everything in 10min action, scoring, drawing fouls, rebounding, stealing the ball, 11eff. He's listed 197cm already which is perfect size for SG. Big prospect who might be most individually gifted (in terms of skill and craftiness) together with Indrusaitis in the country. I think as a 16yo he can play some meaningful minutes in NKL already.

Here's the word on him via U16 campaign:

Dovydas Buika 6’4 SG Lithuania 2007 Born Zalgiris Kaunas

Some likely would rank Buika in their tournament top 10. He is very adept at getting to the hole and creating contact to either create space and finish or get to the free throw line. He will dunk it on occasion and surprise opponents. He got to the line nearly 8 times per game (73%). He did not shoot it well from three at this event and did not show much of a mid range game. If he can develop those other layers and add to to his great ability to get downhill it would certainly help him as a prospect down the line. Averaged 16.3 ppg 46% from the field.


https://www.nbadraft.net/fiba-u16-european-championships-top-prospects/
 
And the word on Lelevicius via U20 action:

Liutauras Lelevicius 6’7 Small Forward Lithuania 2003 Born Zalgiris

Lelevicius tied for third in scoring at this event with 17.6 points per game while shooting 42% from the field. He showed some potential as a shooter going 33/35 (94%) from the free throw line and shooting 16/44 from three. If he can increase that long distance shooting percentage, it will benefit him a great deal. He isn’t much of a self creator and needs momentum to get past defenders. Has a high dribble and does not have great explosiveness around the rim. Listed as a shooting guard but has the handles of a small forward. Feisty but not a great defender. Lelevicius had NBA draft workouts with teams prior to withdrawing for the 2023 NBA draft. He is definitely on scouts radars but did not move the needle for most scouts in his performances from this event.


https://www.nbadraft.net/fiba-u20-european-championships-top-prospects/


Liutauras Lelevicius (2003, SF, 6'7, Lithuania)

The Lithuanian NT didn’t achieve the expectations, but Liutauras Lelevicius made his case to position as the best scorer in the U20 European Championship. The 6’7 Wing has the ideal mix of size, athleticism, handles and scoring tools to be a high-level offensive option for European teams. He thrived in transition, was able to drive and complete powerful finishes drawing contact or getting past his defender, showed fascinating glimpses of his off the dribble shot creation and used his scoring gravity to make life easier for his teammates. He didn’t show any type of fear in the crunch minutes and demonstrated the type of leadership you can expect from a player like him. Lelevicius is ready for the next stage.

http://www.eurohopes.com/news/6374/...the_u20_division_a_fiba_european_championship
 
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Have to admit his highlights look amazing. But so does a lot of youngsters, the tricky part is, will he be able to transit it smoothly to mens level.
'
 
Have to admit his highlights look amazing. But so does a lot of youngsters, the tricky part is, will he be able to transit it smoothly to mens level.
'

Yes, but maybe the positive is that he has no major concerns as a prospect. F.e. Varnas was very soft, that was obvious issue. E. Seskus was slow for a guard and tweener. Indrusaitis has the complete package, but even he will have to show that his athleticism and skill transit to next level.
 
Grigonis is most unpredictable and deepest shooter of all lithuanians guards today on perimeter that has in him 20pts+ game tallent

But watching him in first 2 euroleague games,his movement doesnt look right,he is running like his brain is protecting some part of his body and when player does that some other body part usually gets injured

I rather see Grigonis playing 15minute per game than 25+ minutes per game this season.If NT want him to see in July


Grigonis looks like guard who gonna finish his careers early before 33 old,simply because his body will say no more.

I would be very suprised seeing Grigonis how he moves now in 2023 playing in summers after Olympics in 2025 and further.


Playing 25minutes per game 9months his body unlucky to hold off healthy .
 
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But watching him in first 2 euroleague games,his movement doesnt look right,he is running like his brain is protecting some part of his body and when player does that some other body part usually gets injured

I think he's trying to play smart, but I don't see that he would be too cautious. He's aggressive where he has to be.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2A4gL8TlNg&ab_channel=grhoopsalert
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5upEFfM4bps&ab_channel=PanathinaikosTV

He's an elite shooter and it's really nice to see him in top shape starting the season. I think he won't be playing that much as he is now. PAO has deep rotation enough and some players only adjusting yet. I think he will play around 20mpg in the season for PAO if healthy.

Obviously Grigonis decision depends only on health and that's bad and good news. Bad because he can't control that, good - he's motivated to play for the NT (dcontrary to whatever demons Ulanovas has in his head).

If Grigonis joins NT 2024, the picture will be different than in 2022. In 2022 he was still the best player with the ball. Spain could decide to lock Grigonis as the best perimeter player. In 2024 he will be the best shooter, but the primarily player with the ball will be Jokubaitis (and the most dominant guard overall). So other teams won't have luxury to box Grigonis or something like that. If you box Grigonis you make more room for Jokubaitis and he will punish you without any hesitation big time. So will Brazdeikis be much more matured and stronger, specially in terms of the decision making and shot selection. I think in OLY he will be forced to learn to adjust to competitive environment even more. In Zalgiris he still got many freedom, in Oly he will play around more competitive guards and will have to learn how to utilize his minutes even smarter. I think that may be beneficial. I see Grigonis having much more open shots in 2024 than 2022 with the growth of Jokubaitis and Brazdeikis. Grigonis shows that he trusts his shot more than ever and it drops. He was a little bit unlucky with 4th quarters in 2022 EB, but I would say it was more of random thing. In 2024 I can see him nailing some big ones in 4th quarter. Much stronger Jokubaitis as a slasher and facilitator will make wonders for Grigonis who can take his shot off very flexibly and easily and makes it with very high %. As well as Sabonis' presence will also create a lot of opportunities.

In my opinion, we will have very good backcourt with Jokubaitis, Grigonis, Brazdeikis for our standards. With additional growth of Jokubaitis and Brazdeikis, we will potentially be able to compete even with superior backcourts. We can exceed at ball sharing and facilitating culture (specially if Sabonis and Ulanovas in) and maybe even shooting if all these three best guards will shoot +40% (I will remind that both Rokas and Iggy shot amazingly in WC % wise). I just want another strong guard into rotation, specially defensively. The one who could truly hold super agile and dominant guards. Dimsa is near that level, but not precisely there. Let's face it, both Dimsa and Normantas choked against Serbia. Both were taken for defensive reasons, but Serbian guards were passing them way too easily. Jokubaitis is actually making a progress at the defensive end too, Grimau greeted his defense yesterday. That's good news. But we still need some-one who can really guard as a back-up. And only 2 guys in the country can do that - D. Giedraitis and Marciulionis. Giedraitis is inefficient and unreliable at 1, so I hope for Marciulionis' big progress this season. Slow ass Kariniauskas will be ridiculed again. He can't guard. Lelavicius can't too (even though definitely better against small agile guards than Kariniauskas, no brainer).

To me Jokubaitis, Grigonis, Brazdeikis + Dimsa are locks for 2024, goes without saying. And then I'm looking at Marciulionis, Rubstavicius, Giedraitis, Velicka as next serious options (the only question is when they will be ready), tracking their progress. To me Normantas overall was more of disappointment. He can't bring defensive intensity that it's needed at this stage. He's too slow. So I doubt he can bring anything more than he brought in 2023. I don't really see the picture where Normantas matches that level of intensity going against Serbia, Spain, Canada and so on. And since he can't do that, he's just a half step worse player than Dimsa.

If one guy from those with an upside (Marciulionis, Rubstavicius, Giedraitis, Velicka) prevails and adds to the rotation, we will be very lucky and will have surprisingly good guard rotation. I'm not a believer in Rokas Giedraitis. He showed again that chokes under pressure in Kaunas and that's the main reason why he can't bring things into NT. Besides, he's just a worse version of Grigonis generally (just a shooter with little defense). NT doesn't really need him if Grigonis comes. If Grigonis out, I still take Giedraitis for the last time. And lastly, I just can't see how average players
as Kariniauskas, Normantas can help us against world class NTs. They simply can't. Most likely they will actually make NT, at least one of them, since Maksvytis has been so very much a Godfather of scrubs, but it's dead end, IMO, useless waste of spots. You either have legitimate pieces of such level, or not. Taking players from lower levels (literally) and hoping that they will match EL/NBA level is just useless. You either have legitimate pieces or not.

Aside Rokas, Marius, Iggy, I think Dimsa looks best from the rest guards ATM. He doesn't bring much, but he brings spot on presence generally. R. Giedraitis is a choker and I can't take him seriously. And Lekavicius so far seems to be dead in Maksvytis playbook. The only way to improve our back-court is to add new talent. Adding mediocrity is not working. Time to realize that. It's dead end and always has been with exception of 2014, but it was still super lucky draw for us too.

PS: I want to see Marciulionis, Brazdeikis, Butkevicius, Ulanovas, Sedekerskis small ball line-up in 2024. They should play 100% switch all without hesitation. In my opinion that can work really well. Butkevicius these days is cheeky as f...offensively, Sedekerskis will also be even more aggressive, so we can survive with this stud defensive line-up even offensively for short stretches. Brazdeikis ISO defense is not a trash. In switch all defense he should feel pretty comfortable. I re-watched Marciulionis stretches in reserve NT, he can hold on with bigs in interior defense because of his toughness and deflections. Really positions himself well and doesn't allow bigs to feel comfortable with his physical presence. NCAA physicality pays off here. I have no doubt more flexible coaches would go more and more with such line-ups these days. Maksvytis was still too hesitant to put Sedekerskis more at 5. Too bad we suck at coaching, we could have much more interesting things in the NT having some-one who can go cheeky with contemporary decisions.
 
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Finally Rubstavicius is back! First buckets in NBA arenas are maid. He did fairly good coming from injury - 9pts in 15min. Too bad he missed the game against Portland. Not every 21yo Lithuanian has a chance to go against NBA teams in the pre-season. His development to me is basically the key along with Marciulionis ATM (and to lesser extent Tubelis as flexible center). Will be interesting to see if at the end of the season he will be ready to fight for the spot in 2024 NT roster and how his NBA chances will look. Nailed long distance three and very nice drive and finish in the traffic. From highlights it seems he's fairly sticky defensively. He's gonna be good. Now just needs to stay healthy:

https://twitter.com/NBL/status/1714091891879239782
 
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First strong game in Australian league for Rubstavicius. He needed that to get it going. Coach didn't play him much in 2 previous games. Now he got 18 minutes. Hope fully at least that is minimum what he gets. Efficient three way scoring, 11pts. I've noticed he goes for a floater often now, which wasn't all that much a case previously, so he wills that mid range game section with that. But to me struck one highlight. Open court fast brake, he speeds up real nice and he gathers for his 2 steps from the three point line, makes huge strides and finishes with his off hand easily creating separation. Seems like his physicality is panning out nicely, he can attack the basket with a great explosiveness. This makes me think he even might have a shot in the NBA, and no question top competition material in Europe.

Here's the play at 0:26

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gWId1c4OTfo&ab_channel=NationalBasketballL eague

And couple more highs:

https://twitter.com/NZBreakers/status/1720336603472916802?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1720336603472916802%7Ctwgr% 5Eb0629c1fffdaa9c84f526ec637b30020f12242f5%7Ctwcon %5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.basketnews.lt%2Fn ews-196828-australijos-lygoje-geriausios-rubstaviciaus-rungtynes.html
 
Rubstavicius looks evidently much bigger. I hope he won't try to get any bigger than that, he must be looking at Manu body more than anyone else. Work on the lean muscle, strong core stength and not try to be too big. This wish to get bigger often screws many prospects. But Rubstavicius looks well, a bit rusty in his movement if you ask me yet compared to his best last season, but he's coming from an injury and far from his top shape too. He needs to care less about the weight now and just polish his muscles. He should remain agile and shifty for a wing. If he becomes too heavy he may loose some of traits that is needed for SG.

With that said, Rubstavicius scoring, aggression and very underrated passing is the next big thing for the NT. With all respect to Iggy, I like him, he doesn't have fundamentals in him. He's just a scorer and barely will be much more than that, IMO. Rubstavicius has all the package. He can drive and and kick out perfectly, he can make a bullet pass in transition, he can initiate pick and roll from 2 and dish it nicely. His decision is rock solid. I don't know about 2024 (hope to see him in the camp), but I basically see him more or less as the best SG in the country in 2025 if he will develop as he has been. He's way more explosive than Grigonis, he's much better defender - meaning he will be much better player.


Once we'll have Jokubaitis and Rubstavicius as starters in the NT, I will be satisfied with our starting line-up. That will be elite Euro guard duo.

https://twitter.com/jordanmcnbl/status/1720609682430034399
 
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