Lithuanian Point Guards

[Straight forward2]

I think that your guard situation long term looks quite well. A bit concerning that none of them are great shooters though, but you can overcome that.

Good point. All three guys we mention here are inconsistent shooters, but I don't exclude the possibility that Marciulionis will be a good shooter in his prime, maybe even Jokubaitis as well despite a bit strange form of shooting. Grigonis surely is a good shooter and we only yet to have some benefits of that in the NT, and players like Sirvydis, D.Giedraitis, Brazdeikis should also bring some shooting to the NT. No Macijauskas in the horizon, but the picture with guards, IMO, is even better than quite well.

Some highlights of Augustas tonight. Dropped 11pts in 4 minutes in the third quarter:
https://www.facebook.com/betsafeLKL/videos/1127824570975509/?t=54

 

[Mindozas6]

I love Jokubaitis, he is poised to be elite EL PG, but I stick to my projection that A.Marciulionis is the best guard prospect since his dad. Career high in LKL, 17pts in 16min. against Lietkabelis. Bar injuries he will be relentless and tameless guard at both ends of the flour.

If only 10s could get one of these three PG studs... I don't think 21yo Kalnietis could have 12/5 in tough and athletic league as France LNB as Velicka is having now. 31yo Kalnietis has been struggling in this league in 2018/2019 season with 7.7/5.6. Basically we are about to have 2 star point guards and plus Velicka who is likely better than Kalnietis. If these three will have great careers it should be some sort of compensation for all these decades of PG section deficiency in Lithuania.

Just a small note to make situation look more fair: Kalnietis played for Asvel, champions, while Velicka is doing that in bottom team in 18 clubs league

 

[Straight forward2]

Just a small note to make situation look more fair: Kalnietis played for Asvel, champions, while Velicka is doing that in bottom team in 18 clubs league

Sure. The cross section was rather between what would Kalnietis provide at 21 in Velicka's place, knowing that he relatively struggled in LNB in his prime, at least I think he wasn't happy about his impact and so on AFAIK (off course, the game style wasn't the one that Kalnietis was used to). The team's obviously hardly comparable, but their playing time and opposition is still the same. My point was, I guess, that I don't see why Velicka shouldn't go as far as Kalnietis if not further in his career. At 21yo I think Velicka has more polished facilitating game, better handles, and what I'm pretty sure about, Velicka has tools to be better defender than Kalnietis was.

 

[Mindozas6]

Sure. The cross section was rather between what would Kalnietis provide at 21 in Velicka's place, knowing that he relatively struggled in LNB in his prime, at least I think he wasn't happy about his impact and so on AFAIK (off course, the game style wasn't the one that Kalnietis was used to). The team's obviously hardly comparable, but their playing time and opposition is still the same. My point was, I guess, that I don't see why Velicka shouldn't go as far as Kalnietis if not further in his career. At 21yo I think Velicka has more polished facilitating game, better handles, and what I'm pretty sure about, Velicka has tools to be better defender than Kalnietis was.

Nah, it's only opposition that is the same, but not the situation they are(were) in own clubs. It's like comparing some Jokubaitis/Lekavicius in Zalgiris and Kariniauskas in Nevezis days. Roles are too different, teammates are different level. Also Kalnietis in 2018 was going down a bit already. And as you said LNB simply doesn't suit Kalnietis too much, he needs more team oriented league to show its best. So this LNB comparison is not really fair IMO. But of course we hardly have any other.
While 21yo Kalnietis is overall hard to compare cause he was spending time on Zalgiris bench without getting a proper chance. Not that he was bad, but cause we had better PGs like DC, Popovic, who were proven EL players. NT was also too high ceiling when vets cameback. I think current Velicka would be in the same shoes. But does Velicka has chances to have better career? No doubt he has, at least what comes to club level, where Kalnas never shined thnx to bad choices and injuries.

 

[Straight forward2]

And Velicka is out. I guess the club was determined to make some changes. It's good for Arnas, IMO. He should play much more games and likely more minutes. Would love to see instead of Boaltright in Rytas, but most likely he will go to German league.

 

[Mindozas6]

And Velicka is out. I guess the club was determined to make some changes. It's good for Arnas, IMO. He should play much more games and likely more minutes. Would love to see instead of Boaltright in Rytas, but most likely he will go to German league.

German league to finish this season is much better option than Rytas IMO. Stronger league, better competition. But most important is to move to the team where he will have important role and good coach

 

[Straight forward2]

German league to finish this season is much better option than Rytas IMO. Stronger league, better competition. But most important is to move to the team where he will have important role and good coach

„Lowen“ it is. Interesting that in 2017 German league was treated fifth bet league in Europe, above LNB A1, but in 2018 it went down and French league prevailed. IMO, the levels of these 2 rather similar. Hopefully Velicka will get a chance to move his legs properly.

 

[Straight forward2]

Here's Marciulionis career high highlights, 17pts in 16min. His threes accuracy gradually improves (44,4% LKL, 25% CL, average is decent for this stage of development 34,7%). The biggest strides he made defensively however. He already one of the most reliable defenders in the team despite the weight (81kg). Look out when his body and explosiveness will ripe a bit more in some 2 years. The level is a bit different, but now he's exceeding 18yo Jokubaitis' (11min, 4,4pts, 3,8eff) impact in LKL with 13min, 5,6pts, 6,7eff:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Qgm-QIsy7E

 

[Straight forward2]

Interesting clash between Jokubaitis and Bolmaro yesterday. Saras correctly described those 2 as one of he best young point guards Europes, maybe even worlds wide. Bolmaro won this one, but both were going really hard at each other. Bolmaro is taller and a bit more athletically gifted. I liked his energy, he was just roaring with slashing threat and overall hustle. I sensed some tricks of 00's Spaniards generation a la Rubio, Rudy, Lull ect. He can be really dynamic guard. Jokubaitis on his own had couple of decent defensive stops, but some mistakes as well. Dropped 6pts, couple assists. I think overall Jokubaitis is a bit more crafty and more gidted scorer than Bolmaro, but the latter has physical edge and it will be interesting who will prevail as better from these 2 20yo. Bolmaro got drafted really high, 23pick, that's huge for white point guard. And indeed his athleticism fits NBA better. Jokubaitis I think remains somewhere in 28-45 picks range as NBA goes. I have to admit I didn't see too much minutes of Balmoro playing, but I liked what I've see yesterday. Here's his performance:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7eRBIEtZVgw

 

[Straight forward2]

Remember I mentioned that I saw some highlights of young Saras, likely NKL, I think it's this material exactly, some youth tournament (maybe that's famous 4 high school arena? Whatever). Well, I had an impression that Saras was a bit more raw at this age in my mind, remember some exhibition stage in the NT when he already was probably better than Maskoliunas, but still struggled to shoot a little bit. We can see that he pretty much had all his moves already and the shot is pretty good looking. If we would compare 16 Augustas (or even Jokubaitis), I think Jasikevicius had more much developed shooting. No wonder eventually he became terrific shooter and relied on it mostly, going for lay ups wasn't his priority, specially in his mid and later career stages. Also already crazy and vocal. The latter became his strength weakness at the same time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YBs6lUopLhw

PS: What I like about Augustas is that he already is one emotional and vocal leaders of Rytas. There's something about him that other players look at him in the circle of consultation and he is the one who would be energetic and unifying. I like his carriage in interviews, his eloquence and how explicitly and proudly he talks about national team as something to be proud of. That's why I project him as a true inheritor and successor of Sabas, Rooney, Saras legacy. He has natural leadership running through his veins, selflessness regarding NT, great talent. I gamble on him exactly to step onto Saras shoes, he has the biggest personality from our best talents to do that. Even more so than Jokubaitis, who also is almost inviolable.

 

[Mindozas6]

Nice find, SF. I knew I saw some of his games from youth champs, but this footage was never seen before. I don't think it's Kaunas tho. Anyway, I see Ilgauskas, Jurkunas also there, it was hell of the team and Saras already looked decent in everything we know him about - court vision, leadership, shooting, some drives, even good first step, which is kinda forgotten now

 

[Straight forward2]

Nice find, SF. I knew I saw some of his games from youth champs, but this footage was never seen before. I don't think it's Kaunas tho. Anyway, I see Ilgauskas, Jurkunas also there, it was hell of the team and Saras already looked decent in everything we know him about - court vision, leadership, shooting, some drives, even good first step, which is kinda forgotten now

Exactly. Some people have Jasikevicius as slow, unathletic in their mind He wasn't so, specially in his young days. He just never had great defensive motor and for NBA lacked a little bit of agility at defensive end that he could stay with elite guards quickness and athleticism wise. But people forget that he was already 29yo when he joined Pacers.

 

[Dreamcatcher2]

Saras was a very great player, but it doesn't necessary means he was the same great talent. He was good of course but not special like a player he became later. It happens and very often that a player becomes much better one than a prospect he was. F.e. D.Sabonis was slow big who had a hard time scoring from a mid-range. Would someone say he would be an NBA all star? Or Giedraitis who didn't play in youth NT (12th player and a bench warmer in one tournament) would be a good EL scorer? Saras imo is the same case. His generation won 2 youth golden medals and some calls them Jasikevicius generation but that's because he is the only one well known player from all of them. The thing was that he wasn't the best talent there. There was more exciting ptospect Jurkunas, better scorer Sestokas. Saras wasn't even a main pg there. That was K.Marciulionis and they were more or less the same level talents. But you wouldn't look for the old highlights of K.Marciulionis because he was an opposite case of Saras - a worse player than a talent he had.

As i remember, in his first 2 NCAA seasons he didn't play much, in the last 2 he finally played in the starting five but as a sg. He wasn't NBA material (later as well as his athletism and speed were not his strongest sides) but his break out season was in Olimpia and a coach Zagadin was a key in his early career days. He said himself Zagadin was the best that could happen to him at that time. Working ethics and right circumstances - that's what should be added to the talent that was in Saras's case but not in Jurkunas's one f.e.

 

[Mindozas6]

The problem with Saras was that he was in USA and he was far from spotlight. None could really see his development properly, day by day, none could evaluate how good he really was. He was not the best prospect in generation, that's true. We had Ilgauskas there first of all, not a youth NT member, but a prospect who was here infront of our eyes all the time and was rocking LKL in his teen years. In youth NTs there was Jurkunas, a superstar in the making as everyone predicted, new Toni Kukoc, he took all the spotlight. Sestokas looked like an early matured guy, who received NT call-ups at 18-19yo, but lately simply disappeared, he obviously lacked character, and finally was not as talented as Jurkunas, who was beast physically and ceiling looked skyhigh. K.Marciulionis was on the same level with Saras only in early teen years, they played together quite a lot too in guards positions, what kept Marciulionis close was laziness of Saras. Saras had it all, but work ethics was poor. Moving to USA was the first thing that helped a lot to get his sh*t together, Saras bit by bit proved his worth, coming home stronger and stronger. In 1995 he was already on court leader of that talented generation. In 1996 he was one of key guys at u22 champ, being 20yo. Next year Saras started to receive NT invitations after old generation retired. When Saras went back to Europe to play professionally, you could see that he is a real deal. Season in Lietuvos Rytas, 1999 Eurobasket when he stepped up in crucial game vs Spain were great proofs. Leadership, guts. Then failing to get a contract with Zalgiris was probably another great thing that happened. Zalgiris was on EL winning hangover with plenty of internal problems. Choosing Sagadin and Olimpija of course helped a lot, but realistically speaking it probably only accelerated the inevitable and reaching the stardom happened faster than it would have had happened what so ever. Thnx bball gods it happened right before Sydney tho and that unforgettable bronze, after which he came back to Europe as superstar already

 

[Straight forward2]

Good retrospective, Mindozas. When we think about that generation, it also kinda of "beat generation", we lost 2 premium prospects in Ilgauskas, Jurkunas (regarding NT) and other promising guys like Sestokas, Marciulionis never made much of impact. Saras off course ended up as generational talent, the symbol of 00's medals and title season, but the bunch of Ilgauskas, Jurkunas, Jasikevicius could be deadly.

Anyway, Arnas Velicka balling in Bundesliga. He scores at will and collects bunch of assists, rebounds. IDK, we should really be getting something from this guy. In last FIBA windows it was a bit unfair to throw him into the fire while he didn't play in the first game. In couple of years with his physical profile he will be tough guard to contain. However you look, not every guard can play in French and German leagues like that. Next season he should play in the team which has at least CL or Eurocup's licence. I think P. Motiejunas will also have hard time deciding if Zalgiris should go after him already. Personally, I think Kariniauskas is not an option for EL cause he wouldn't be as effective in offense under EL defence and his D is crappy despite decent size. If I would choose between Kariniauskas and Velicka, would surely choose a player with an upside and extreme physical profile which only yet to pan out completely.

https://translate.google.com/transl...ehlt-sich-sichtlich-wohl/&prev=search&pto=aue

 

[Straight forward2]

21yo Jasikevicius was 12.4pts, 3.6as player for Maryland (NCAA)
21yo Kalnietis LKL 6,9pts, 3,5as (20min) Zalgiris.
21yo Seibutis 13.5pts for Maroussi (Greek league).
21yo Grigonis 9.7pts Manresa (ACB)
21yo Lekavicius Zalgiris 4.6pts (EL)

Looking from this angle. What does it make of Velicka who had 11.4pts/5,2as in LNB Pro A and now has something like 14pts/6as in Bundesliga. Isn't that he is basically the first 21yo since Macijauskas to play at such high PRO level? I mean French and Bundesliga surely tops NCAA, LKL, Greek League. Only Grigonis stats line looks really nice playing in ACB as 21yo and Lekavicius didn't entirely blew his chance (soft Zalgiris back then though). IMO, Velicka is ridiculously underrated. Not only he gets from little to none hype, but there's also some sort of hare and scepticism like he would be indepted to someone already or failed somewhere. This ridiculous Velicka is one of best guard prospects we ever had and somehow in Lithuania he only gets indifference or hate. And some Miklovas would say I would be "almost chocked to see Velicka in the NT one day" or something like that Like many times, even BB journalists can't have adequate picture of our prospects. Like they couldn't with Sirvydis also, who was almost the only youngster with such stats standing in the Eurocup.

Just for comparison, one of Liekabelis leaders Valinskas completely failed in French league last season, being 24yo.

 

[Straight forward2]

Also the fact that we have 21yo Velicka, 20yo Jokubaitis, and without few weeks 19yo Marciulionis can't be overestimated. It's impossible to overestimate that we get this bunch coming at the SAME TIME. If these three in their prime won't be tearing some opponents corpses with ecceleration, I don't know what it takes then. IMO, this bunch is the break point of our upcoming BB history, those three should leave a deeper footprint and will be even more impactful than some duo of Sabonis, Tubelis. Can't wait to witness the outcome.

 

[LuDux2]

I mean French and Bundesliga surely tops NCAA, LKL, Greek League.

In 05-06 Greek League had 3 teams in EL and 1 in Uleb Cup finals

 

[Straight forward2]

In 05-06 Greek League had 3 teams in EL and 1 in Uleb Cup finals

Well, good point. Seibutis had a nice season as 21yo. But the problem with him was that as 23 and 24 he kinda stuck and had couple of bleak seasons. Then he found new life in Rytas as 25yo. But generally I think Seubutis never lived up to the hype since U21 MVP tournament and being drafted.

 

[Shawshank2]

Well, good point. Seibutis had a nice season as 21yo. But the problem with him was that as 23 and 24 he kinda stuck and had couple of bleak seasons. Then he found new life in Rytas as 25yo. But generally I think Seubutis never lived up to the hype since U21 MVP tournament and being drafted.

what hype? Seibutis is from small city and never played before in any youth tournaments till 2005 and first tournament he become MVP thats insane from that regard. If he had been ale hyped he would have been in youth teams 2001-2004.

Seibutis is underdog story,not some hype prospect that everybody talked since he was like 16 like lots of our hyped youth "stars" that never could even reach real men NT player status.

Seibutis was taken to youth NT only when he started balling In sakalai againts men at 19 big time.