Russia and Lithuania are locks in my opinion. The last two spots will be given to either Lebanon, Dominican Republic, Germany, or Great Britain. However, I don't think it's going to be an easy decision even with the wildcard criteria.
If you look at all four teams, they all have major pros and major cons.
Lebanon (Pros)
- played in last two WCs
- considered a basketball nation with the sport being its #1
- close to Turkey which could benefit the tournament fan wise
Lebanon (Cons)
- play in a weak zone compared to the Americas and European zones
- couldn't qualify via 2009 Asia Championship (I understand ref fiasco but China was without key players and Lebanon still had trouble)
- even though they've competed in the last two WCs, they still didn't make it out of group play in either tournament
Dominican Republic (Pros)
- played competitive in 2009 Americas Championship in their first year back
- play in a more competitive zone.
- adding DR would make the 2010 WC more competitive with the likes of Villanueva and Horford on the team.
Dominican Republic (Cons)
- not a basketball nation by any means
- have not accomplished anything worthwhile in the past 30 years.
- some of their big stars may not play again if DR does not qualify for 2010 WC (a quitting mentality which shouldn't be allowed in FIBA)
Germany (Pros)
- have been consistent in participating in WC, Olympics, and Eurobasket
- play in the best zone in international basketball
- finished 3rd in 2002 WC; finished 8th in 2006 WC
Germany (Cons)
- not a basketball nation
- without Nowitki and possibly Kaman, they may not be as competitive as previous appearances
- lost to Latvia and Macedonia in Eurobasket 2009 and finished 11th behind Macedonia
Great Britain (Pros)
- even though they didn't make it out of group play in Eurobasket 2009, they managed to play competitive in their three games
- a bid in 2010 would help raise basketball popularity in that region, while opening a new front in international basketball.
- with a full and healthy team, they would make 2010 WC more competitive.
Great Britain (Cons)
- not a basketball nation
- recently became a basketball team with no achievements or accomplishments to show for it.
- not a given that they would continue to support basketball beyond 2010
Overall, I think all these teams will have make strong presentations in order to get a wildcard.