Have we just now entered the real Obradovic Era?

[Adon2]

Could we ever predict a multivariable situation ten years ahead? The answer is NO and there is a scientific explanation for that (see Chaos theory). It's the same as in economy, politics, wars, etc. The smartest people can predict just the most probable next step and they can become very rich and successful if they are correct. You make the assumption that almost everything will remain almost the same in the future but this was never the case in BB or in everything else.

 

[saras2]

Money guarantee Obradovic.

With money all is easier.

How many no top8 budget teams played final four in the XXI century? Baskonia five times, Siena four times, Unicaja once, Partizan once (maybe the biggest surprise this century until now) and few more examples.

baskonia wasnt a team with low budget. scola,macijiauskas,prigioni,hansen,calderon,teletovic,rakosevic,spliter etc. or even shengelia,bargniani etc. didnt play for free cause they supported baskonia from kids. they didnt get as much as they earned in their next contracts,but baskonia for sure had a top5 budget for many years (during those years they went 4 straight times at the f4). even malaga at 2007,i think they had a pretty big budget. half of the spanish national team played for malaga back then. siena's budget was also big and definetely top5 along panathinaikos,olympiakos,csska, and barcelona who had the biggest budgets those years.

the only teams that were not top8 in terms of budget and went to the f4 were partizan 2010 and kuban-baskonia at 2016

 

[Victorious2]

Quite the contrary. Obradovic' supremacy is fading slowly. Simply because the game is changing. Obradovic still is quite old school when it comes to basketball. His game relies too much on playing tough borderline foul defense. While this always will remain important in Europe, I can't help but think that new factors are being introduces constantly. I have the impression that Obradovic tends to struggle a bit due to this.

Basically, Fener is a top 3 budget team. And during the last four seasons Obradovic won it once. With home court advantage that is. That is as many times as Bartzogas or Laso. So, I don't see a clear coach/succes pattern. Rather, I see a budget/succes pattern. Or better yet, a deep roster and best players succes pattern. Think of Spanoulis and Printezis carrying Olympiacos to two titles and four finals. Yet, during this phase they were coached by three different coaches. Yet, if you would have eliminated Spanoulis from the equation, the reds wouldn't have won any title.

Now, don't take me wrong. Obradovic is an excellent coach. But he is overrated in the sense that he can do miracles. With a top 3 budget, time, and a good fanbase he can win a EL title any moment.

 

[qiangdade2]

Now, don't take me wrong. Obradovic is an excellent coach. But he is overrated in the sense that he can do miracles. With a top 3 budget, time, and a good fanbase he can win a EL title any moment.

That is a prerequisite in the scenario. Scenario says Fener continues to have a top budget and Zoc stays there. Ot he finds another team with a top budget (I believe however that Fener will continue having a top budget).

 

[qiangdade2]

Could we ever predict a multivariable situation ten years ahead? The answer is NO and there is a scientific explanation for that (see Chaos theory). It's the same as in economy, politics, wars, etc. The smartest people can predict just the most probable next step and they can become very rich and successful if they are correct. You make the assumption that almost everything will remain almost the same in the future but this was never the case in BB or in everything else.

I am making a guess. Based on some logical assumptions.

I enjoy the art of making wild guesses and what-ifs.

It's fun. Of course I will not bet my house on it.

 

[janketa2]

Quite the contrary. Obradovic' supremacy is fading slowly. Simply because the game is changing. Obradovic still is quite old school when it comes to basketball. His game relies too much on playing tough borderline foul defense. While this always will remain important in Europe, I can't help but think that new factors are being introduces constantly. I have the impression that Obradovic tends to struggle a bit due to this.

Basically, Fener is a top 3 budget team. And during the last four seasons Obradovic won it once. With home court advantage that is. That is as many times as Bartzogas or Laso. So, I don't see a clear coach/succes pattern. Rather, I see a budget/succes pattern. Or better yet, a deep roster and best players succes pattern. Think of Spanoulis and Printezis carrying Olympiacos to two titles and four finals. Yet, during this phase they were coached by three different coaches. Yet, if you would have eliminated Spanoulis from the equation, the reds wouldn't have won any title.

Now, don't take me wrong. Obradovic is an excellent coach. But he is overrated in the sense that he can do miracles. With a top 3 budget, time, and a good fanbase he can win a EL title any moment.

You should know better then most of us Obradovic is the best coach in Europe and will be for long time, even when he leave Fener I will repeat the same.
He is more then just excellent coach. Ivkovic, Maljkovic, Pesic are excellent coaches from the same Aca Nikolic school, but Obra is more then that. He went one step further and made his own system. That is not just tactics and game plan, but many many strategic little and big things that he involves in his job.
He is from old school, you are right, but this what Fener played against Baskonia is all but not old school. Game plan was example of modern basketball regarding both offense and defense.

 

[jonga2]

I am following a maybe far-fetched scenario, based however on a series of logical steps and on real arguments. For example that money and a good coach has proven to guarantee success and that success and money are usually keeping a coach in the same team. As a result a good coach may remain in the same team with a high budget for many years meaning that they will win lots of titles as the current format is a guarantee that the best teams will reach the f4.

On the other hand you talk about a crazy prediction with no logical steps inbetween whatsoever. There is a difference.

Of course I don't know if my scenario will come to fruition but at least it is based on logical arguments.

But I see no reason why Vitoria should not host the f4.

My "crazy prediction" is more possible than your "logical prediction".

Your arguments are not logical. But the worst of them is to think that saras will win a lot of titles with Barcelona, first we don't know if will sign for them, and then Barcelona is a team which only won the euroleague twice in their history.

Do you want logical arguments? There is a team which have one of the best managers, and play most of the seasons quarterfinals and 6 of 18 years the final four (or the final in playoffs) and did not win the title never. After some economical problems the team started again doing the right things the last seasons. I guess there is a chance for winning a single title the next 10 years. I see more chances than "being only 3 coaches winning the 90% of the titles the next 20 years".

Do you want some "crazy steps"? Baskonia will organize the final four one of the next years, will increase their budget and will win the title because have maybe the best organisation in Europe. The team is changing their roster every season because the budget, and still play quarterfinals. In the next years will have a higher budget, will not sell their best players and will win the title.

The rest count shit, they have won nothing. Titles is everything, participations in comparison to budget is nothing in the history books.

A lot of people celebrate to play the final four like a trophy, for that people the history books count shit. Do you think a CSKA fan is happier winning the title than a Baskonia fan playing the final four? For example Zalgiris, imagine if they play the final four, even to play the quarterfinals is something amazing. And I am talking about a team which won titles in the past.

 

[jonga2]

Could we ever predict a multivariable situation ten years ahead? The answer is NO and there is a scientific explanation for that (see Chaos theory). It's the same as in economy, politics, wars, etc. The smartest people can predict just the most probable next step and they can become very rich and successful if they are correct. You make the assumption that almost everything will remain almost the same in the future but this was never the case in BB or in everything else.

Totally agree.

baskonia wasnt a team with low budget. scola,macijiauskas,prigioni,hansen,calderon,teletovic,rakosevic,spliter etc. or even shengelia,bargniani etc. didnt play for free cause they supported baskonia from kids. they didnt get as much as they earned in their next contracts,but baskonia for sure had a top5 budget for many years (during those years they went 4 straight times at the f4). even malaga at 2007,i think they had a pretty big budget. half of the spanish national team played for malaga back then. siena's budget was also big and definetely top5 along panathinaikos,olympiakos,csska, and barcelona who had the biggest budgets those years.

the only teams that were not top8 in terms of budget and went to the f4 were partizan 2010 and kuban-baskonia at 2016

Baskonia was not a team with low budget, that is right, no one said that Baskonia was a low budget. Your illusions about Baskonia being a top budget are quite laughable. Baskonia and Siena top5 budget

When you have for example Splitter who signed a 10 years contract with 15 years, then you can have a top center earning less money. That was one of the keys of that Baskonia, they signed a lot of great young players. Yes, they had money and they could sign some important players, but never was a top8 budget.

By the way, when Baskonia played five games vs the best Kinder, and that team with homecourt advantage was invincible, better than the best CSKA. Baskonia had in that days less budget than some greek teams. So to play that long series winning the first game in the Palamalagutti, with only one PG (Elmer Bennett because Corchiani was injured) is IMO one of the most surprising seasons of the euroleague history. That season Baskonia eliminated without homecourt advantage three greek teams. First season of Dusko Ivanovic, Dusko at its best. And that was the first ULEB euroleague and the only one without final four.

 

[Erkan122]

Quite the contrary. Obradovic' supremacy is fading slowly. Simply because the game is changing. Obradovic still is quite old school when it comes to basketball. His game relies too much on playing tough borderline foul defense. While this always will remain important in Europe, I can't help but think that new factors are being introduces constantly. I have the impression that Obradovic tends to struggle a bit due to this.

Basically, Fener is a top 3 budget team. And during the last four seasons Obradovic won it once. With home court advantage that is. That is as many times as Bartzogas or Laso. So, I don't see a clear coach/succes pattern. Rather, I see a budget/succes pattern. Or better yet, a deep roster and best players succes pattern. Think of Spanoulis and Printezis carrying Olympiacos to two titles and four finals. Yet, during this phase they were coached by three different coaches. Yet, if you would have eliminated Spanoulis from the equation, the reds wouldn't have won any title.

Now, don't take me wrong. Obradovic is an excellent coach. But he is overrated in the sense that he can do miracles. With a top 3 budget, time, and a good fanbase he can win a EL title any moment.

How many Euroleague championship Pao had before Obradovic? 1.
How many Euroleague championship Pao has after Obradovic? 6.

He is clearly a big time changer when it comes to club histories.

Fener had the same budget for 7 years, and we only played 1 single playoff in the entire 7 seasons. Obra came and with the same budget we played 2 final four (one of them is final) and 1 championship. He changed everything. Also Madrid and Oly had championships and final fours before so Laso and Bartzo had advantages by being on a more experienced clubs, Fener had 0 final four experience before Obra.

As long as 3 seconds defensive rule doesn't exist in the Europe, Obra's system will remain perfect.

 

[paspalj2]

Qiangdade: I think that there a lot of mixed things in your thought process. For example, you say that you make a prediction based on passed events but the fact is that there is not enough data to make an educated guess based on the new Euroleague format. If you are willing to go past that then the event that one coach or one team wins 50% of the titles in 20 years has not happened frequently enough to justify it. Additionally, you build a lot upon Saras going to Barca something that might fail spectacularly (as Barca has been failing recently). Finally, since we have single elimination games in the F4, this prediction is even more risky because you have to account for outsiders like Oly(2012), Maccabi (2014). I would go as far to say that even Pao in 2011 was an outsider (in the QF, not the F4).

You just made a prediction, I'm not fighting it, I'm just trying to explain my logic for rejecting it. Lets hope that we'll remember this post in 2038 and come back and see how things played out

 

[qiangdade2]

Qiangdade: I think that there a lot of mixed things in your thought process. For example, you say that you make a prediction based on passed events but the fact is that there is not enough data to make an educated guess based on the new Euroleague format. If you are willing to go past that then the event that one coach or one team wins 50% of the titles in 20 years has not happened frequently enough to justify it.

A valid point. The future will tell.

Additionally, you build a lot upon Saras going to Barca something that might fail spectacularly (as Barca has been failing recently).

It may well fail but I am basing it on a few facts:

- Saras will get offers from top clubs and he is likely to go to a club with a top budget.
- I exclude CSKA and Fener as in this scenario they stay with their current coaches.
- Saras' wife is from Athens, but I exclude Panathinaikos cause DPG
- Saras has said that since he has played for Barca, Pao and Maccabi he would never go to Real, Oly or Hapoel Jeru. Thus I am taking Real and Oly out of the equation.
- That effectively leaves only Maccabi and Barcelona in the picture with Barca having the higher budget.
- I have read Saras' autobiography and his love for the city of Barcelona is unconditional. He absolutely adores it and has stated that he would like to live there. His wife also has no problem (at least according to him)

So yes, Saras going to Barca is a guess, but in my opinion not a far-fetched one.

Finally, since we have single elimination games in the F4, this prediction is even more risky because you have to account for outsiders like Oly(2012), Maccabi (2014). I would go as far to say that even Pao in 2011 was an outsider (in the QF, not the F4).

In the scenario Zoc, Itoudis and Saras reach the final four practically every year. According to the possibilities alone they will win 75% percent of all titles in a final four format.

We'll see

 

[Killer Bob2]

With Doncic in Nba, the team, who will lose the most, is Cska.

 

[Nemanja2]

My opinion is Obradovic can to win 2 or 3 Euroleague.Their best days were in Panathinaikos ,and in period 1991-95 ,when won 3 Euroleague,including imposant with Partizan in imposible conditions .I think that he will be in Fenerbahce still 3 or 4 years,and will win 1 or 2 Euroleague ,probably will make pause ,then maybe take Panathinaikos ,or back in Partizan where all started.He wouldnt be coach still 20 years,maybe 10 years.He have a lot of interesting , about health have hyperthensy like many coach,during the years it will be make bigger problems.So,after Fenerbahce,in which I dont think he would spend still 8 or 9 years like Pao, he could take Pao,few years ,then take Partizan,or after Feenrbahce take Partizan,or something else .So,optimistically he could win maximally 4 Euroleague .

 

[berry2]

My opinion is Obradovic can to win 2 or 3 Euroleague.Their best days were in Panathinaikos ,and in period 1991-95 ,when won 3 Euroleague,including imposant with Partizan in imposible conditions .I think that he will be in Fenerbahce still 3 or 4 years,and will win 1 or 2 Euroleague ,probably will make pause ,then maybe take Panathinaikos ,or back in Partizan where all started.He wouldnt be coach still 20 years,maybe 10 years.He have a lot of interesting , about health have hyperthensy like many coach,during the years it will be make bigger problems.So,after Fenerbahce,in which I dont think he would spend still 8 or 9 years like Pao, he could take Pao,few years ,then take Partizan,or after Feenrbahce take Partizan,or something else .So,optimistically he could win maximally 4 Euroleague .

I dont think Obra can return to PAO with Giannakopoulos as prez.

 

[Nemanja2]

About succes of Obradovic with big amount of money .Obradovic won Euroleague with Partizan,in war-time ,with unpayed player and them,after that won with Joventut where also didnt have biggest budget .Also in Panathinaikos,Jasikevicius,Bodiroga,Siskauskas,Spanoulis,Pekovic,Kutlay were celebrated before Panathinaikos,but Diamantidis,Batiste,Calathes,werent.He won Euroleague 2010-11 after departure of Spanoulis,Jasiekvicius and Pekovic.About departure from Panathinaikos,important influence had Dimitris Gianakopoulos .About return of Pao, let presume D.G. if will not be in Panathinaikos still 7,8 years .

 

[paspalj2]

I dont think Obra can return to PAO with Giannakopoulos as prez.

Yeah, that's not happening

Additionally, I don't think that he is such an idealist to go coach Partizan for peanuts.

 

[qiangdade2]

A lot of people celebrate to play the final four like a trophy, for that people the history books count shit. Do you think a CSKA fan is happier winning the title than a Baskonia fan playing the final four? For example Zalgiris, imagine if they play the final four, even to play the quarterfinals is something amazing. And I am talking about a team which won titles in the past.

Are we supposed to rank success according to fan happiness upon reaching a final four?? That's pretty much what you did earlier. You ranked Baskonia with 0 titles above Barca with 2 and Real with 1 in the last 18 years.

In fact it is more like this: Im agine Baskonia reaching the next 10 Euroleague Finals and losing all of them to 10 different teams. And those 10 different teams achieve nothing else than winning that 1 fianl each - they don't even reach another playoff series. All of these 10 teams are more successful than Baskonia that has lost 10 finals and has 0 titles. For example Zalgiris is a more successful team than Baskona.

As for Baskonia having the best organization in the Euroleague, I would say it is a great organization, but there are several more successful ones that would beg to disagree.

I cannot take the argument that "we have played most playoffs" as an indication that a team will win a title.

 

[qiangdade2]

@jonga Don't get me wrong. I will be rooting against Obradovic, Itoudis, and Saras and for Baskonia in every single game. And generally against them - I like upsets. Okay, this year I am rooting for Saras.

 

[ab_mj2]

You didn’t get me. I’m not comparing pre-Obra Fener to post-Obra Fener. I’m talking about correlation between money and success, which is different point. Assume that no Obra no money, do you think that current success is still sustainable? I doubt. Don’t forget that Obra never works in a average-budget team. That means if your budget reduces to 10m€, no more Obra. In this case, very hard to reach 3 consecutive F4 without making huge local talent pool.

I agree with you regarding to lack of local talent.
But correlation between money and success doesn't explain our position. We had same amount of money more or less but we couldn't reach anything. And main point of this threat also supports this. Real, Barca built great roster and won the titles because of good player (there is nothing to underestimate). Money can bring you Obradovic, but due to lack of talent in Europe, money cannot buy best players who can move you to titles.

 

[ab_mj2]

Obra will always be hot candidate for the title, so as Fener. I don't think that only three teams will be contenders for the title, at least 7 teams will win titles in next 20 years.
CSKA, Real, Fener, Oly, Pao, Maccabi and Barca.
We are happy that Fener is among powerhouses and we have our chances. This is bullshit that someones wrote about economy in Turkey linking that with Fener future. In 80 milions country we are the club with the most fans and rising interest for basketball. Turkish economy is stronger then Spanish but much more money(x5) is invested in Spanish clubs then in Turkey. So, there will be always space for investing in Fener as success story. Maybe not 30 milion every season but I doubt that budget will ever drop under 20 milions in any case.

Obradovic era doesn't start with change of the competition but in the moment when he started his coaching career.
As he said in many interviews he will continue to do what he knows the best as long as he enjoy in his job. I think he will stay in Fener next five years and he could take one or two titles more. I am not optimist about this season but we have our chances of course.

Could you add Fenerbahce to this list 6 years ago ?
I couldn't.
So, unpredictable team can enter the list, we can't know, but only guess. My guess is Pao, Maccabi and even Barca will not win any title in next 5-10 years.