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Game: Bet on the Champion

  • Thread starter Thread starter Levenspiel2
  • Start date Start date
If you split your money, you ensure that you can't win. People who focus more will beat you.

If this game was repeated 10 times, maybe that would work, but there will just be a single winner and single payout, so even if you have the best expected value, you will never be the best..
 
DarkoMVP said:
If you split your money, you ensure that you can't win. People who focus more will beat you.

If this game was repeated 10 times, maybe that would work, but there will just be a single winner and single payout, so even if you have the best expected value, you will never be the best..
Click to expand...
You seem to know better than me about probability and stuff, but what if some other team other than the top-4 wins? It's not easy to focus on any of them. Yeah, especially if USA or Spain wins, the results will be disappointing.

If I had time, I'd do the same for each gameday and it would definitely be more fun (same logic with Billy Bounce's system, but with externally determined fixed odds). Anyway, this time we go simple.
 
The teams that have a shot on the gold medal besides USA and Spain are

Greece (always there for top 4)
Serbia (great team, less chance than Greece imo)
Turkey (going to be a nice team, hosting nation too, evenly matched with serbia)

Can't say Argentina because i don't think they'll make it to the finals.Though i would really love them winning the gold.

Brazil is quite likely to choke.

I don't Believe Australia (a relatively-new team with new big players) have twhat it takes to play for high stakes.If thay had played together a few years more they chances would have been better.

So, Spain > USA > Greece > Serbia = Turkey=Argentina?

optimized earnings equatiation should be. like

Spain x a= USA x b = Greece x c..

*but* you should have more than 1000 to win. So. splitting the money equally is not the best option.

betting on USA doesn't seem a nice option, regarding that you'll have to invest more than 600 to exceed 1000 in case of a win. That'll put you on a situation which even if you invest 400 to spain , and if spain wins you'll only get 1100, That's risky because it's a game and anything might occur.You'll end up with 0 if any other team wins.

even if they have the chance. i don't think USA are going to win the gold.

So;

Spain ; 650
Greece 200
Turkey 75
Serbia 75
 
Deschain said:
So;

Spain ; 650
Greece 200
Turkey 75
Serbia 75
Click to expand...

Originally Posted by DarkoMVP View Post
"If you split your money, you ensure that you can't win. People who focus more will beat you. "

...namely all those who have bet 1000 to Spain or Greece or anyone who have bet more than 75 to Turkey or Serbia.

It's impossible for you to win.Change your bet;)
 
Everything on Serbia.

No matter how much you spread, in a short while every team will be covered by an all-in bet, which means you have no chances to win. :D
 
Adon said:
Originally Posted by DarkoMVP View Post
"If you split your money, you ensure that you can't win. People who focus more will beat you. "

...namely all those who have bet 1000 to Spain or Greece or anyone who have bet more than 75 to Turkey or Serbia.

It's impossible for you to win.Change your bet;)
Click to expand...


well my bet is a realistic one. since it's not real money. it's normal to see people betting 1000 on a team. yes if spain win , i'll loose. but just want to see myself winning more than 1000.

you should be penalized if you put all or most of your credits on a single team. current manner simply eliminates people who actually made some calculations on this one.
 
USA-500

Greece - 100
Spain - 100

Argentina - 30
Brazil - 30
Lithuania - 30
Slovenia - 30
Russia - 30
Croatia - 30
Puerto Rico - 30
Australia - 30
France - 30
Serbia - 30
 
Deschain said:
well my bet is a realistic one. since it's not real money. it's normal to see people betting 1000 on a team. yes if spain win , i'll loose. but just want to see myself winning more than 1000.

you should be penalized if you put all or most of your credits on a single team. current manner simply eliminates people who actually made some calculations on this one.
Click to expand...

In this game, the winner is he (or she) who will gain the bigger amount of "money".You are playing a slightly different game.
 
that's correct but, if people can bet on team for 1000 credits,(the winner will be one of them for sure) then this game turns out to be a 'Predict The Champion' Thread.
 
Not exactly. You can split the credits on low probability teams (example:PR 300,Australia 300,Iran 200,NZ 200) and wait for the surprise.Who will bet 1000 on any of these teams?:D

...but it's futile to split on the favorites.
 
i see you want to lose your money here
hm i can propose something
give me all your IBN money to put them in USA
ofcourse there is the chance to want to lose your money then its ok by me:D
 
crazy green said:
i see you want to lose your money here
hm i can propose something
give me all your IBN money to put them in USA
ofcourse there is the chance to want to lose your money then its ok by me:D
Click to expand...

Are you talking to me ? (:D taxi driver)
 
I "sense" that somehow someone will beat USA after the groups.

Serbia: 300
Spain: 300
France: 150
Argentina: 150
Brazil: 50
Greece: 50
 
why do you post, its too late already. I mean 8 teams are gone, the odds are different that what they were before the tournament. Its not fair to place bets on those odds anymore
 
Here are the new rates. You can bet again if you want. You have a new balance of 1000 IBN currency.

USA - 1.95/1
Spain - 5.38/1
Turkey - 9.00/1
Serbia - 18.50/1
Greece - 23.00/1
Lithuania - 30.00/1
Brazil - 30.25/1
Argentina - 35.00/1
Slovenia - 52.50/1
France - 90.00/1
Russia - 120.0/1
Australia - 165.00/1
Croatia - 216.00/1
New Zealand - 500/1
China - 700/1
Angola - 1500/1

Deadline is the start time of the first game tomorrow.
(Odds from the same source as in the first post)
 
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