For upcoming 2 tournaments Serbia seem to have everything they need to aim for nothing but the final no matter he tournament, specially if some Kalinic or any other defensive glue guy can make an impact and connect good guard section defense with more of interior defense (cause youngsters as Jovic, Poku, Vukcevic, Petrusev are not good defenders), as well Jokic is not a good defender (Milutinov is likely better than him defensively, but he is injury prone). That's the only little concern likely. I'm not sold on Avramovic as very serious piece. I think he exceeded a bit in WC in some games, but overall not an elite player. I think 2 upcoming tournaments for Serbia are safe in terms of talent, but Bogdanovic gonna be 32 and 33 in those tournaments and likely his last 2 big ones, the clock is ticking. His contribution slightly reduced compared to 2019 and there's a question whenever he'll be motivated to suit up after OG 2024, knowing his injury record too. Micic career in NT has been fragmental and generally disappointed (even though he may turned out to be great vet and his best performances potentially ahead, but I wouldn't bet on it, really). Serbia yet didn't introduce any of big guard youngster on the NT stage. Topic and Durisic are NBA prospects, theoretically perfectly filling 1 and 2 positions as a long term starters, but we should still see if they are truly braking out at highest level (at least EL). Without guards, even Poku, Jovic, Vukcevic presence at combo forward position may not be enough. NTs without dominant PGs or very versatile SGs/combos (as Bogdanovic/SGA) basically have zero chances to win medals these days.
When talking about future, it's only reasonable to predict near future in terms of talent evaluation. In my opinion you could analyze max two next tournaments, everything beyond that is difficult to predict because situation changes really quick, like players coming out of nowhere and immediately making impact or some of them not living up to expectations. As for Serbia, picture for next two years is pretty clear. Topic, Djurisic, Poku, Jovic, Petrusev, Vukcevic are projected to make real impact starting from next Olympic cycle, remains to be seen to what extent. I'm not worried about guards. We always had them. We already have Topic as the next big guard (hopefully), with Micic being still in his prime and couple of excellent role players on PG. You can't ask for much better than that. Talents are there, in fact some big prospects on guard position are being mentioned very frequently, and that's also all you can ask for. Most of them won't live up to expectations but the key thing is to keep producing them because some of them will definitely pan out.
As for individuals in this current core of Serbian team. We don't need Avramovic to be elite player, we just need him to be elite role player as he has been ever since he arrived to Partizan. Obradovic changed his role and said to him something like 'if you want to play in NT, you are going to have to be a PG because there is a crowd at SG'. Before Partizan, Avramovic was a high volume SG, not particularly efficient. His transformation was a blessing for NT because we got guard with some elite skills like ball pressure, slashing, which we really needed in the backcourt. Not elite player, but quite possibly elite role player. If Topic lives up to expectations, Micic might not be very important anymore. However, he is still very valuable and in his prime, past results don't mean anything for upcoming tournaments.
Topic and Djurisic are most likely going to headline NT roster in upcoming windows. After Jovic and Petrusev, two more youngsters are going to be officially included in national team circle. If Topic continues to develop, it's going to be hard not to call him for Olympics. It's not a secret that Pesic is his big fan and already called him a serious candidate for Olympics. And there are Jovic, Petrusev, Poku, Smailagic. I don't think you will find that many young players ready to take a role in any other contender. Perspective right now and also in the future considering the talent in youth generations is very bright. Right now, the way I see it, Serbia has the best mix of experienced players in their prime and young talented players out of all contenders (outside of USA and Canada). This will enable them to make transition for the next Olympic cycle much less painful. Jokic, Bogdan, Micic, Milutinov, Kalinic, Dobric, Marinkovic, Guduric all in good prime years, and on the other side younger players like Topic, Djurisic, Jovic, Petrusev, Smailagic, Saranovic already realistically knocking on the door. Pretty good situation to make a smooth transition. Not to mention a bit younger but also big prospects like Markovic, Bosnjakovic, Radosic, Stankovic, Filip Jovic.
I've been watching basketball long enough and I don't think there was ever a time when Serbia didn't have an elite guard. And I don't think that will happen anytime soon for both historical reasons and talent pool.
