true, its just numbers/statistics until one of your love ones is affected, correct my math but 1.78% of 100 million Filipinos is 1.7 million dead people right?
anyway i miss the days that the entire ibn philippine section was debating about naturalization and eligibility
(FACEPALM) Yup, your math is all wrong. Hooo boy this is going to be a bit of a long OT but here goes:
You're confusing the CFR (Case Fatality Rate) of 1.78% and providing the wrong formula and giving out a completely nonsensical output of 1.7 million people. That's misleading. If you want to compute what's called the CRUDE MORTALITY RATE which by the way is defined as:
measures the probability that any individual in the population will die from the disease; not just those who are infected, or are confirmed as being infected. It’s calculated by dividing the number of deaths from the disease by the total population. So:
21,537 (total deaths from Covid as of June 4) / 110,959,520 (pop. of Philippines as of June 4) =
0.0194%
So
0.0194% is the Crude Mortality Risk that either you or anyone in this forum dies from COVID. But of course, that isn't the whole story of it. So how did we get that 1.7%? Well, that's the current CFR for the Philippines. In the media, it is often the “case fatality rate” that is talked about when the risk of death from COVID-19 is discussed. This measure is sometimes called case fatality risk or case fatality ratio, or CFR. But this is not the same as the risk of death for an infected person – even though, unfortunately, journalists often suggest that it is. It is relevant and important, but far from the whole story. The CFR is very easy to calculate. You take the number of people who have died, and you divide it by the total number of people diagnosed with the disease:
21,537 (total deaths from Covid as of June 4) / 1,255,337 (total cumulative cases of Covid as of June 4) =
1.72% CFR Case Fatality Rate
But it’s important to note that it is the ratio between the number of confirmed deaths from the disease and the number of confirmed cases, not total cases. That means that it is not the same as – and, in fast-moving situations like COVID-19, probably not even very close to – the true risk for an infected person. Unfortunately in the mainstream media, the case fatality rate is sometimes misreported as being Crude Mortality Rate and sometimes even as the IFR! What we want to know isn’t the case fatality rate: it’s the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR). The IFR is the number of deaths from a disease divided by the total number of cases. However, the total number of cases of COVID-19 is not known. That’s partly because not everyone with COVID-19 is tested. We may be able to estimate the total number of cases and use it to calculate the IFR – and researchers do this. But the total number of cases is not known, so the IFR cannot be accurately calculated. And, despite what some media reports imply, the CFR is not the same as – or, probably, even similar to – the IFR.
The case fatality rate isn’t constant: it changes with the context. Sometimes commentators talk about the CFR as if it’s a single, steady number, an unchanging fact about the disease. But it’s not a biological constant; instead, it reflects the severity of the disease in a particular context, at a particular time, in a particular population.The probability that someone dies from a disease doesn’t just depend on the disease itself, but also on the treatment they receive, and on the patient’s own ability to recover from it. This means that the CFR can decrease or increase over time, as responses change; and that it can vary by location and by the characteristics of the infected population, such as age, or sex. For instance, older populations would expect to see a higher CFR from COVID-19 than younger ones.
And this isn't even taking into account the untold number of reports across the country where Covid deaths are being misreported (families being approached by doctors and hospital staff to declare the death of a loved one as a COVID death for philhealth payout purposes even though the person died of an unrelated disease; motorcycle deaths, suicide deaths, accidents etc. reported as Covid)
In short, during an outbreak of a pandemic,
the CFR is a poor measure of the mortality risk of the disease.
....Aaaannd so back to regular programming on this thread.