FIBA ASIA Cup Qualifiers

[Giannis34GOD2]

I wasn't able to watch the game but with Iraq losing to India by 20 pts, this seems to be a different Iraq team (I'm not talking about team composition here ha. I'm talking about competitive form) from the one that put up a close game versus Jordan just a month ago. I think Jordan won by just 6 pts. over Iraq last month.

This is why I think a team's competitive form may vary from a window qualifier to another or from a tournament to another, and such varying competitive form will decide the fate of a team..

Take the case of Gilas, which was in its worst competitive form in the recent 3rd window, we all know Gilas can play better than it did last month in that pocket tournament in Qatar & the window qualifying games versus Taiwan & New Zealand. People will say "wala kasi si Kai Sotto eh". While I acknowledge Kai's very significant value in Gilas, I think there was more to our struggle in the 3rd window & the pocket tourney in Qatar than just the absence of Kai Sotto.

Take the case of how Gilas played in last year's Olympic Qualifying Tournament, after beating mighty Latvia in our 1st game, we face another tough team in Georgia with some NBA players in its roster. We lost Kai to injury early in that game vs. Georgia, yet we almost beat Georgia in a close game. Then in our next game vs. Brazil (we didn't have Kai Sotto), we lost but hindi tayo natambakan. That's becoz Gilas was at its best competitive form during the Olympic Qualifying Tournament.

So nagkakatalo talaga yan sa competitive form ng team. If India faced Iraq last month, I don't think India will beat Iraq.

Kunti lang talaga yung teams na consistent yung competitive form nila.

True... Only Australia is consistent among Asia/pacific teams that stay consistent whoever they face.. China and Japan was given a good fight from Guam last window, Korea almost lose to Thailand, etc... that means all teams can't stay consistent every window.. yes, they won that game, but I'm sure in their minds, that was disappointment.. they should be better than that...

 

[Giannis34GOD2]

Agree with this. Without Lewis & either Harris or Grantham, Qatar is just within the level of its fellow Gulf teams like Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, UAE, Kuwait (Kuwait even beat Qatar last year in an international tourney among the Gulf states). In fact if Qatar plays importless, I think Indonesia & Thailand can stand toe to toe with Qatar.

Having 2 imports in its roster, biglang lakas ng Qatar. With that, I think Qatar has the edge over Saudi, Bahrain, Iraq, Syria, UAE, Kuwait.
in fact, I think Qatar now can stand toe to toe with the rebuilding Iran national team. In fact, natalo na ng Qatar & Iran 4 months ago.

Are they better than KSA? That's a question only.. because they both split their matches in Gulf cup last year, that was Qatar already have Lewis and Harris while KSA doesn't have Abdurrakman (newest naturalized player) yet... I will give KSA slight edge.. they are more complete than Qataris... Qatar is like Guam to me, Guam also have 2 world level imports in Galloway and Ross, and they might have better talents than Qatar and even KSA.. don't be surprise if they will recruit players since this is their debut tournament... They will give their all, especially probably this is the last years of Tai Wesley, and maybe Ross and Cruz (both are 34 years old)..

 

[Giannis34GOD2]

With the way we see right now, this is probably the last stint of Wayne Chism as Bahrain's naturalized player.. he's too old, can't run, can't jump and now can't even shoot... Iraq demoralize Bahrain's confidence right now... They have to find another naturalized player for the next cycle...

 

[Giannis34GOD2]

So the cast is already complete... We will have 1 debutant and 2 returnees after 8 years... Good luck to all 16 teams

Australia (rank 7)
Japan (rank 21)
NZL (rank 22)
Iran (rank 28)
Lebanon (rank 29)
China (rank 30)
Philippines (rank 34)
Jordan (rank 35)
Korea (rank 53)
Saudi Arabia (rank 65)
Syria (rank 71)
Taiwan (rank 75)
India (rank 81)
Qatar (rank 87)
Guam (rank 91)
​​​​​​​Iraq (rank 93)

 

[Giannis34GOD2]

So officially the POTS for Fiba Asia cup will be:

POT 1: Australia, Japan, NZL, Iran
POT 2: Lebanon, China, Philippines, Jordan
POT 3: Korea, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Taiwan
POT 4: India, Qatar, Guam, Iraq

Now, depending on the host KSA where they will put themselves in draw POTS, usually host having privilege to put themselves in POT 1 (Just what Philippines did in last Fiba world cup) or they will choose group where they will be in turn for the draw (Just what Indonesia did last Fiba Asia cup)... If KSA choose the 1st option, they will be on POT 1 as host, Iran will be move to POT 2 and Jordan will be on POT 3... If KSA choose 2nd option, probably they will choose Iran group, since they are the weakest of those teams who are in POT 1, and expected that they will arrange some groups to their favor... The draw will be on April 8....

 

[sroth38392]

So officially the POTS for Fiba Asia cup will be:

POT 1: Australia, Japan, NZL, Iran
POT 2: Lebanon, China, Philippines, Jordan
POT 3: Korea, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Taiwan
POT 4: India, Qatar, Guam, Iraq

Now, depending on the host KSA where they will put themselves in draw POTS, usually host having privilege to put themselves in POT 1 (Just what Philippines did in last Fiba world cup) or they will choose group where they will be in turn for the draw (Just what Indonesia did last Fiba Asia cup)... If KSA choose the 1st option, they will be on POT 1 as host, Iran will be move to POT 2 and Jordan will be on POT 3... If KSA choose 2nd option, probably they will choose Iran group, since they are the weakest of those teams who are in POT 1, and expected that they will arrange some groups to their favor... The draw will be on April 8....

They might choose the Japan group because their record against Iran is quite terrible. They lost by 20-30 the last time they met. Also, it's to avoid any political BS that could occur during the game.

They don't have a good record against the Pot 2 teams either. They most certainly won't have an easier time against a resurgent China (the team in the pot they have yet to face) who wobbled Japan by 40-50.

All the Pot 4 teams are beatable for them.

 

[Giannis34GOD2]

They might choose the Japan group because their record against Iran is quite terrible. They lost by 20-30 the last time they met. Also, it's to avoid any political BS that could occur during the game.

They don't have a good record against the Pot 2 teams either. They most certainly won't have an easier time against a resurgent China (the team in the pot they have yet to face) who wobbled Japan by 40-50.

All the Pot 4 teams are beatable for them.

That's the 2nd option.. I think KSA will choose first option, where they will put themselves in POT 1, just what we did in Fiba world cup draw as host privilege... They will likely target Syria as their group mates since in POT 3, only Syria is the easiest choice for them, And yes, PoT 4 is beatable for them.. maybe they will choose either India or Iraq...there is no geographical reasons for this event, so expect 1 group will be all East Asian teams and 1 group will be all West Asian groups...

 

[sroth38392]

Is that sure? Shouldn't the KSA have the luxury to be in pot A since they are the host?

That or they just choose their grouping like what Indonesia did in 2022.

KSA only needs a win so any of the pot 4 teams will suffice.

Their record against the Pot 1 and 2 teams are not in their favor.

 

[Giannis34GOD2]

That or they just choose their grouping like what Indonesia did in 2022.

KSA only needs a win so any of the pot 4 teams will suffice.

Their record against the Pot 1 and 2 teams are not in their favor.

I'm sure they will use that leverage to be in POT 1 as host.. Just look at Americup POT seedings, Nicaragua as host put themselves at POT 1 as their leverage... They have to be sure they will get Syria in POT 3, so that they have a chance to win atleast 2 games... Korea, Jordan and Taiwan will be difficult for them...

 

[JAMSKIE2]

Are they better than KSA? That's a question only.. because they both split their matches in Gulf cup last year, that was Qatar already have Lewis and Harris while KSA doesn't have Abdurrakman (newest naturalized player) yet... I will give KSA slight edge.. they are more complete than Qataris... Qatar is like Guam to me, Guam also have 2 world level imports in Galloway and Ross, and they might have better talents than Qatar and even KSA.. don't be surprise if they will recruit players since this is their debut tournament... They will give their all, especially probably this is the last years of Tai Wesley, and maybe Ross and Cruz (both are 34 years old)..

Yes sir. I say slightly better even as Saudi Arabia now has a naturalized player who is a world import caliber (I think that NP played as an import in the Spanish ACB league). I think Qatar has gotten stronger with the addition of another world import in Tyler Harris, who mysteriously, is considered by FIBA as a local player. Hence, Qatar has the luxury of fielding both 6-foot-1 guard Mike Lewis (who is Qatar's naturalized player) & 6-foot-9 Tyler Harris at the same time. Then Qatar has another NP player in former NBA player 6-foot-9 Donte Grantham. Grantham played for Qatar together with Harris versus India in the 3rd window last month.

In the tournament that you described in which Qatar & Saud Arabia split their games against each other with the Saudis playing w/o a naturalized player while Qatar had both Lewis & Harris, I think Qatar was still adjusting with Harris being new to the team during that time. I think at present, Harris has already assimilated himself with the team, hence Qatar is expected to get even better.

I'm assessing a team's strength not just based on its current strength but more importantly yung ini expect kung maging strength ng team moving forward.

If I'm coach Tim & if I have to choose which to play against between Qatar & Saudi Arabia in a crucial game, I'll choose the latter.

 

[sroth38392]

Yes sir. I say slightly better even as Saudi Arabia now has a naturalized player who is a world import caliber (I think that NP played as an import in the Spanish ACB league). I think Qatar has gotten stronger with the addition of another world import in Tyler Harris, who mysteriously, is considered by FIBA as a local player. Hence, Qatar has the luxury of fielding both 6-foot-1 guard Mike Lewis (who is Qatar's naturalized player) & 6-foot-9 Tyler Harris at the same time. Then Qatar has another NP player in former NBA player 6-foot-9 Donte Grantham. Grantham played for Qatar together with Harris versus India in the 3rd window last month.

In the tournament that you described in which Qatar & Saud Arabia split their games against each other with the Saudis playing w/o a naturalized player while Qatar had both Lewis & Harris, I think Qatar was still adjusting with Harris being new to the team during that time. I think at present, Harris has already assimilated himself with the team, hence Qatar is expected to get even better.

I'm assessing a team's strength not just based on its current strength but more importantly yung ini expect kung maging strength ng team moving forward.

If I'm coach Tim & if I have to choose which to play against between Qatar & Saudi Arabia in a crucial game, I'll choose the latter.

Another thing worth pointing out: KSA's front court is quite thin.

They only have Mohd Alsuwailem (6'11) and Mohd Almarwani (6'8) who is 36 by August. Outside of these two, the remaining players are guards under 6'6. Once Saudi's front court gets into foul trouble, they are very vulnerable against teams with reliable bigs. This is why Jordan, NZ, Iran, and even Syria are such terrible match ups for them.

Qatar with Harris (6'7), Graham (6'9), Seydou (6'8), and Hadzibegovic (6'11) have better depth at the power forward and center position. Add to that, their wings with Abbasher (6'6) and Hashim Daoud (6'8) are taller and more athletic.