There are some unwritten rules to eurobasket.
Home teams rarely do much. When they are expected to be the big favourites, they either fail like Serbia in 05, dissapoint like Slovenia in 13 or as a big favourites to win it all, remember JR Holden in 07. Spain being second in 07 is the closest a hosting country got to a gold, which for that particular team was an enormous dissapointment at that time.
However there is one interesting objection to the rule. The last host that won it all, was Germany in 93.
The second rule would in my opinion be that the favourites tend to underperform quite often. In 17 Spain was humiliated in semis, France completely underperformed, no matter the absences. Complete Italy. Turkey also underperformed lately, personaly I expected more from some Greek or Croatian teams either.
Than there are the relative surprises. Slovenia in 17, France in 13, Russia in 07, I'd dare saying Greece and Lithuania in 05 in 03 as well. Serbia in 09. Surely looking back those victories seem like well deserved and obvious, but a lot of players made their names on those exact tournaments and their performances weren't exactly to be taken for granted before the tournament.
Back to back victories seemed incredible for Spain. And if it wasn't for France, they could pull out 4 in a row. Without that shot by JR Holden it could easily be 5 in a row. That's an incredible streak! But that generation also made us forgot a bit about the unpredictability of these tournaments that we have witnessed in the past, with 5-6 NT's being among the narrowest medal contenders, and another 5 NT's easily having a shot at a medal or even the gold, if the stars aligned for them.
In that regard, I wouldn't bet on Slovenia being a clear cut sure thing, no matter Dončič and Dragič, better teams managed to underperform at eurobaskets result wise.
I am a bit sceptic by Micic running the point for Serbia, as well as game running through Jokič, basicaly whole Pešič's "supposed" game plan. Could be wrong.
France is loaded, but without that extra firepower on perimeter needed for a win imo, sorry Fournier.
Than there is Greece with the Antetokoumpo questionmark...
Those 4 are imo the supposed gold medal contenders, inevitably at least one team from above will dissapoint/heavily dissapoint
However from the past experience, at least one of the following if not two teams from the group below, will play on pair with the teams above
Italy. Who cares about rim protection, I like their guards even if they dont seem out of the ordinary, they're able to get their teams above what many other "inside heavy" national teams can deliver
Turkey. With Larkin, that's a potentialy really nice first lineup. They'll be hungry, with some chemistry...
Lithuania. It's Lithuania. Whenever I sleep on them, they make some great results.
Latvia, surely beatable, but make sure you're able to outscore them and they're the team I could easily see eliminating just about any team on the tournament on a good day.
I am not particular Schroeder believer and think Germany would be better of with Lo, that's why I haven't put them in the group above.
It remains to be seen how Croatia will look like with that naturalised PG, since that's theoreticaly the only thing that has been missing to otherwise quite impressive roster, they could easily joing either of the groups above, with some chemistry.
Than there is the supposed underdog group... like Czech republic in 15 (could be a bit unfair to place them there? Afterall they deservingly played at the olympics), Ukraine in 13 or North Macedonia or Finland in 11
I know Finns will have a lot of simpathies as well as fans, Belgium is generaly underestimated imo, while Georgia could get a nice push from playing the group phase at home.
It's been 5 years. In the past we'd have 2 tournaments inbetween to make some judgements, now it's really a big questionmark on what will happen imo.