As of today, counting on the best players of each team playing upcoming EuroBasket (which is probably not going to happen), I see it something like this:
Tier one: Serbia, France, Slovenia
As for Serbia, Toruko said something like Serbia doesn't make frightening impression at all. I don't know if it's said in general sense, or compared to past time? Anyway, I would just like this team to play up to their potential. If we can throw a lineup Micic-Bogdanovic-Lucic-Kalinic-Jokic and play up to their potential, maybe 'frightening' is not the best word, but I can tell you this lineup gives me great vibes. NBA MVP, Euroleague MVP, two modern forwards who play both ways, and a shooting guard who can do everything. I don't know if that's frightening but it's surely going to give a lot of headache to opposing coaches trying to figure out how to stop them. There is also more than capable bench, which in my opinion would be something like Teo-Jaramaz-Guduric-Bjelica (Smailagic)-Milutinov. Petrusev as a third option at C, I can even see him getting minutes at PF with Jokic at C depending on matchup. Still thinking what could Nedovic bring and how to fit him in without sacrificing right balance between offense/defense. Going further on the depth chart Andjusic is a nice shooter and Avramovic can bring a lot of energy, but if those mentioned players are healthy they won't be in the roster. I think Pesic will take conservative approach because he is aiming here for the highest result. He didn't take over NT at 72 just to be a participant. This probably means Jovic will have to wait for at least another year. We will see how Pokusevski will look by the end of the season, but he will definitely dedicate at least one more off season to work on his body and shooting. From basketball standpoint, I think this team has everything when it comes to offense/defense, the main challenge for Pesic will be to have enough time to make everything work, find proper roles, set strong principles of ball distribution, and incorporate Jokic as the main fulcrum of the offense. Kalinic and Lucic, for example, are perfect fits next to Jokic at forward position, great off ball players, don't need ball in their hands all the time, constantly moving and cutting, efficient scorers and excellent at using mismatches. Couldn't ask for better fits next to Jokic at this level. They give balance to this team and will allow Jokic space to work in the low post and facilitate from the high post. Micic will have to do a better job at facilitating a little bit more than looking to drive and score. It won't be hard to understand that situation in this team is different than the one at Efes. I think health and possible lack of time for preparation are the only real obstacles that could hinder potential of this team.
France is obviously great defensive team at 3-5 position. The trio of Batum-Yabusele-Gobert is really something to deal with, especially at FIBA court. 1-2 isn't that good defensively and those are thier most important positions offensively, though Ntilikina is a pretty good defender and Luwawu is fairly aggressive. Good thing for France is that De Colo and Fournier will get help from Okobo offensively so that they don't have to rely too much on Heurtel if he doesn't have a good day. Not much of creaton offensively, but couple of gifted scorers who can just ISO and get tough baskets. Defense will be their calling card almost certainly. Any team meeting them in knockout stage will need a good shooting day, because I don't see much of room to drive against Batum-Gabusele-Gobert on the court at the same time. I'm not sure what's going on with Maledon and Hayes. Hayes is playing a lot, but doesn't seem convincing while Maledon completely fell out of rotation. Wembanyiama is a generational talent, but probably too young. I just remembered, they have couple of other guys pretty decent at C, that guy Fall from Olympiacos is very capable, not ot menton that he is 220cm. It's just ridiculous how mach size they have at 3-5 position, they can cover basically the whole court. I think they are even stronger than the last couple of years with addition and bigger roles of Okobo and Yabusele, who will bring another dimension in both ways.
Slovenia is pretty much the same. I put them in tier one because they are defending champions even though they still seem kinda one dimensional. This season Glass is emerging as a nice versatile shooter with really soft hand. He fits in perfectly with their offensive mindset and alongside Doncic. Defense though is not at the same level. Everything else is basically the same, there is no team that one player elevates that much like Doncic elevates Slovenia. Also, it will be interesting to see if they can repeat the same energy they've had past couple of years. That's also a big factor in their success. I guess Tobey is still their option as naturalized player, which is fine, with him they can play all 5 out and wait for Doncic’s creation. Dangerous but closer to tiers below than to Serbia or France.
Tier 2 (this one is tricky): Spain, Lithuania, Greece
To be honest, I feel like Spain could go anywhere right now from bust to contender. It's a strange feeling, because for the first time in like 20 years Spain probably won't have a single elite player at any position, if Rubio is definitely out and Rodriguez retired form national team. However, I had to put them here because they have great mentality which won't be lost that easily and which will help them make smooth transition to some new expectations and kind of rebuilding process. I couldn't put them in tier 1 because I feel Serbia and France will have an obvious advantage over them as of today, but they are never to be underestimated, at least until they show that they are vulnerable. As for their new guys, Alocen is probably getting extended role, and who knows, they might throw Nunez into fire already. Garuba for sure is going to help them a lot defensively, and we will see if Mirotic will commit to them, I don't think he is much into playing for Spain, I might be wrong. At the moment I don't see anyone out of those younger players who can immediately make an impact. But like I said, until I see them fail, they remain contender. The drop of talent compared to last two decades is obvious.
Lithuania will look better with Jokubaitis, no doubt about that. I still expect that their coach will build around Valanciunas and Sabonis but it's Jokubaitis who will maximize their potential. If you have quality guards (Jokubaitis and Grigonis) and centers (Val and Sabonis), there is automatic assumption to make a good basketball team. Now, I still think it's better to split minutes between Valanciunas and Sabonis rather than playing them together. Especially now when they have Jokubaitis who is going to need space to slash and drive. In perfect world for Lithuania, Valanciunas or Sabonis will be able to space the floor. As for forwards, they seem to have lost a bit of talent there, Ulanovas is not convincing thus far, Kuzminskas is inconsistent, maybe shift Giedraitis to SF but I don't how that works for their defense. Sedekerskis seems like a guy who can bring toughness and defense at PF, but in general 3-4 leaves something to desire. However, Jokubaitis is enough of the reason for optimism, at least for playing more efficient and meaningful style of basketball. I think they are going to be better than in the last couple of years.
Greece has been underwhelming for some time and I honestly don't know if they belong in this tier, but I just can't envision them keep struggling with Giannis in their team. They don't have a lot of young guys who can make an immediate impact, but that kid Kalaitzakis seems to be having a good season at Lietkabelis, loooks like someone who can help them right away. Calathes, Sloukas, Giannis (who is coming probably without any pressure since winning NBA) are able to make something together, but I can also see them losing without much of a surprise to any team from tier 3. It’s worth mentioning that Giannis has been playing at C a lot this season for Bucks, and he has been pretty good in that role too. Maybe apply the same in Greek team? That would be interesting and might solve some spacing problems for them with Giannis constantly in a mismatch situation offensively. A few good shooters would do wonders for this team.
Tier 3: Italy, Germany, Turkey
I think teams from this tier are not far from teams in tier 2 and I can see them having 50/50 games with teams from upper tiers.
Italy is on the rise, definitely. Aside from Banchero, they have a plethora of young talents showing big promise. Especially Spagnolo, who has been playing great in Italian A league. He seems to be a more rational, maybe even upgraded version of Belinelli. Even if they are still somewhat weak at C, they have couple of tough forwards and they are getting better depth at almost every position. Mannion, Spissu, Pajola (excellent defender) are fitting well together at PG, couple of good forwards, I suppose Galinari is still available, couple of stretch centers…capable team that can beat anyone. They have much better balance between offense and defense, tougher and more competitive than in some past years.
Germany is a team to keep an eye on. Wagner bros, especially Franz, are giving them nice depth. Franz is a really good defender, and very capable offensively. He can shoot, pass, drive, use size to his advantage. I see him being very impactful for Germany, they haven't had such a forward in years. They are very well filled in each position, if they find right chemistry I can see them being a positive surprise. A good version of Schroeder would be great for them, but I think they can still be very good even without him. Theiss and Voightman are a good pair of centers, plus Hartenstein, De Silva has been great for Alba at PF, Wagner and hopefully Zipser at forward also very nice, Lo and Schroeder at PG...that's a lot of length, good size, quick guards who can penetrate and pass to shooters. If they mesh well together, that’s going to be a team to avoid.
Turkey has been underwhelming for years, but they are moving forward in regard to their talent pool. Sengun is a big talent, and actually might be extremely important to Turkey as he seems to be a point center who can facilitate and understand the game. That's something they have been missing for years and Sengun might be the player who will give a sense to their team basketball. They will probably except a lot from Larkin, as well as from Osman and Korkmaz. What they need is a real floor general with good decision making to make players like Osman and Korkmaz even better and make their life easier. They still lack that kind of player, and that's why I think that playing through Sengun, even though he is too young and a little bit foul and turnover prone, is thier best chance to change their dynamic of the game and play a more meaningful and less predictable basketball. With that being said, I can't put them above teams from tier 2 until they show improvement.
I don't think any of other teams can make an upset over these teams, but there certainly are good and well coached teams like Czechs, Belgium, Georgia. I forgot to mention Croatia, they still have talent, by names they are a lot better than what they are showing but it's a question whether they can prove it. Also, Bosnia has talent, especially in the frontcourt.
My approach is a bit conservative while ranking these teams, but I think upcoming EuroBasket might be a chance for some teams to make a huge step forward and maybe make life a lot tougher for some usual favorites.
