Bogut is a big loss and opens a gaping hole in the paint for Australia.
As for Bogut, of course it is much better for Australia if he plays but honestly I think Australia can do fine without him. They have Maric, Nielsen, Andersen and even Jawai could probably give them a few minutes and fouls here and there. Worthington is also a nice player and Barlow and Redhage are pretty good also. Plus their small forwards are very good with Newley and Ingles.
Their back court with Bruton and Mills is pretty decent also. So I don't think losing Bogut would be that big of a blow to them, because they are pretty deep with big men. I think they could still make the top 16 - top 8 without Bogut. With Bogut I think they have a big upset in them against someone, but I still don't see them winning a medal, although I would not rule them out making the semifinals.
I can definitely see where you're coming from especially after Bogut's poor performance in the 2008 Beijing Olympics where he only had one great game. In addition, over the years, other players on the national team have stepped up and have come solid to excellent contributors. NBA players: David Andersen and Nathan Jawai along with Valencia's Matty Nielsen are dependable and are able to carry the offensive load of the team and anchor the team's defense. CJ Bruton has immense experience running the point, Patty Mills brings NBA and NCAA experience as well as an incredible performance in the 2008 Beijing Olympics, Barlow and Joe Ingles have developed into excellent contributors and have been developing as of late in Europe. Finally, Mark Worthington has been ripping up the Australian National Basketball League and has shown on the international stage why he is a key member of the national tam.
Having said that Andrew Bogut along with Matty Nielsen are the Heart and Soul of the team. He is still an important and crucial ingredient if the Boomers are to uplift their performance and finish in the top 6 or even the top 4.
Andrew Bogut has the experience on the international level for many years and has competed night in and night out against the best basketball players on the planet. The coaching staff and Bogut's peers look to him to bring in the big numbers when it gets tough. A perfect example was the Boomers crucial match against the Russians in the group stages of the 2008 Beijing Olympics when the Aussie needed to win the game inorder to progress through Bogut put up a stellar performance and even showed the Russians that he can still throw it down!
Bogut as we all know is having an phenomenal season with the Bucks and has showed the basketball word that he can be a Go-to-Guy in the toughest league in the world and also anchor the team's defense. As a result, there are high expectations from the Australian basketball fans and media for him to transfer that performance over to the international basketball scene and carry the Boomers into the top 4 like what Andrew Gaze and Shane Heal did back in the mid to late 90s.
Obviously, if he does not play for the national team there will be heavy criticism against the Big Fella because prior to his arrival to the NBA, Bogut had stated that he would always put country ahead of club and that the millions of dollars and pressure from club management would not hinder him from playing for his national team. However, the counter argument is that this scenario is different from the case from former Australian National Team member: Chris Anstey and the Chicago Bulls, where the Bulls demanded that Anstey stay in the US for the summer of 2000 to work on his game rather than play for the Boomers in the 2000 Olympics in Sydney. The counter argument is that Bogut is resting in order that he does not get injured for the NBA's next season but also from him not sustaining an injury that could prevent him from playing in the 2012 London Olympics, where many Australian basketball fans would probably expecting a top 4 finish.
The loss of Andrew Bogut on the national team would be felt firstly on the defensive end. The Big Fella has finally developed into an excellent shot blocker and a great flopper. He protects the basket better than Houston Rockets' David Andersen and Minnesota's Nathan Jawai. Valencia's Matty Nielsen previously was known to be a "rim protector" but in previous Boomers campaign has not been assigned to such a role. Andrew Bogut has so much familiarity with guarding other international big men and in addition, has been guarding world class big men in the NBA. On the offensive end, though Bogut didn't have an great Beijing Olympic campaign, having developed an excellent offensive weaponary this season with the Bucks, the has the arsenal to be the inside presence that the Boomers so desperately need. Matty Nielsen and David Andersen are big men who like to step out and Nathan Jawai is a big man who is primarily used to rebound and to protect the rim. Maric, if he does get selected would only see limited minutes due to San Antonio's Brett Brown's preference to use the more experienced Andersen and Nielsen. The third area that Bogut would hurt the Boomers if he doesn't play is in the area of leadership. Though Matty Nielsen in the captain and CJ Bruton is the point guard, Andrew Bogut has a wealth of international basketball experience and more importantly the guy plays in the highest level of basketball in the world, something Matty Nielsen and Bruton have yet to reach.
In conclusion, we have to wait and see if the Big Fella will wear the Green and Gold but if he doesn't, as an Australian and an Australian basketball fan, though I would be disapppointed, I'm hoping that he will develop his game in the NBA so much so that by the time it's the 2012 London Olympics, Bogut can finally try and lift the Boomers to the long awaited medal.
