I'm talking about a well-constructed and well-prepared USA in a knockout Olympic game (where they actually care). Still just a few countries capable of beating that, no chance in hell it's 12.
It still almost requires a golden generation from another country (last time they didn't win gold in the Olympics is 20 years ago when Ginobili's Argentina golden generation won it), too bad because in every 4 years there's a different country that's hitting that prime timing whereas the US has to match with everyone constantly.
France's coming peak with Wemby and their young guys the next 12 years will be concerning for the US.