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2024 Lithuanian NT

  • Thread starter Thread starter Straight forward2
  • Start date Start date
Straight forward said:
Not the ones with stud guards as 2002 Rubstavicius, Marciulionis or 2006 Jakucionis, Indrusaitis ;) But wins or loses mean little in U-level. Ultimate goal is the success of senior NT.
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When you talk about guards you need to consider their capacities to give the ball a direction. Marciulionis is a joke as a guard. I dont even consider him as a serious player.
Rubstavicius is a good defender with good shot creation potential FOR HIMSELF

The last two are also not play makers and 3 guys are really good euro guys but no studs.

Its all about finding 4 or 5 star guys.

Turkey found

2002 Sengun (five stars)
2003 Bona (five stars)
2004 Buyuktuncel (four stars)
2006 Dogan even though a long term prospect (at least four stars

LTU found
2004 Buzelis (five stars) even though dedication is more than questionable Krivas (four stars) Murauskas (four stars)

In comparison to guards
If Marciulionis is a stud. 2007 born Derin Can Ustun is the next Diamantidis and 2005 born Tunca is the next Papaloukas. I am not even talking about Saran etc.
 
Toruko said:
When you talk about guards you need to consider their capacities to give the ball a direction. Marciulionis is a joke as a guard. I dont even consider him as a serious player.
Rubstavicius is a good defender with good shot creation potential FOR HIMSELF

The last two are also not play makers and 3 guys are really good euro guys but no studs.

Its all about finding 4 or 5 star guys.

Turkey found

2002 Sengun (five stars)
2003 Bona (five stars)
2004 Buyuktuncel (four stars)
2006 Dogan even though a long term prospect (at least four stars

LTU found
2004 Buzelis (five stars) even though dedication is more than questionable Krivas (four stars) Murauskas (four stars)

In comparison to guards
If Marciulionis is a stud. 2007 born Derin Can Ustun is the next Diamantidis and 2005 born Tunca is the next Papaloukas. I am not even talking about Saran etc.
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I can only say that there's no ground to even compare current and upcoming young Turkey's talent with current and upcoming young LTU's talent, specially when it comes to 1-4 position. Only 5 position of Turkey is truly world class with Sengun/Bona. Not saying that Turkey can't be competitive, but that's two different weight classes of basketball and in the second half of 20s it will be more than evident. Lithuania has several times deeper talent depth. It's not even a discussion.
 
Straight forward said:
I can only say that there's no ground to even compare current and upcoming young Turkey's talent with current and upcoming young LTU's talent, specially when it comes to 1-4 position. Only 5 position of Turkey is truly world class with Sengun/Bona. Not saying that Turkey can't be competitive, but that's two different weight classes of basketball and in the second half of 20s it will be more than evident. Lithuania has several times deeper talent depth. It's not even a discussion.
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Change LTU and Turkey in your sentences and its correct :cool:
 
Toruko said:
Todays BB is different. Guards decide the end of the game with ISO plays. You need a killer guard. Thats it and Jokubaitis is not the answer for that need.
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After checking medal winners of last 5 fiba tournaments i came to same conclusion. Medal winners had same pattern why they won elite perimeter dude that was shinning and winning his team game endings.

No team won medal without killer on perimeter that could create something from nothing in last 5 fiba tournaments.

Thats how teams beats modern switching defence in fiba where its short tournament and no time to create club level team chemistry


Even best of best NBA MVPs wasnt so impactfull to their NT like elite killer guards in last 5 minutes.


I remember i started asking questions few years ago why LTU lost all game endings in 2019 and 2022 ? LTU have smart players that plays together and usually was decent in game endings

But later couple more fiba tournaments happend and medal winners only strenghten my suspicion.Now Its not just about team chemistry or playing smart, Its more about teams perimeter leader and how much can he create something from nothing in last 5 minutes vs modern switch all defences.
 
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Yeah you nullify pick and roll attacks with switching and attack switches with 1vs 1 attacks with your guard. Thats the reason why American guards are so valuable. They have the speed to attack the rim.
 
D.Sabonis made 13 3pointers in 28games
Valanciunas made 22 3pointers in 30 games
Jokubaitis made 6 3pointers in 14games
Brazdeikis made 4 3pointers in 14games
Sedekerskis made 10 3pointers in 15games
Ulanovas made 11 3pointers in 16games

Grigonis made 32 3pointers in 16games
R.Giedraitis made 31 3pointers in 16games
T.Dimsa made 25 3pointers in 16games
​

I don’t like it what I see here. Its not about just % if player makes 1 wide open 3pointer per 2 games opponents can risk from such player.

2023 NT had good shooting tournament and main diffrence from 2019 and 2022 bad shooting tournaments was: we didn’t play non shooter center Domas at PF and had PF Bendzius shooted well,from SF-PF Kuzminskas shooted well + Jokubaitis,Brazdeikis shooted fantastically over 50% that not sustainable for anybody (euroleague season shows that)

2023 NT Dimsa made 13, Brazdeikis made 13, Kuzminskas made 12, Jokubaitis made 11 , Bendzius 9 (missed last 3 games)

​
Grigonis,R.Giedraitis,Dimsa is clearly best shooters from highest quality levels lithuanians when we take all games into account not cherry picking. I don’t consider player a good shooter if he makes under 1 per game

Bendzius,Kuzminskas,Sirvydis best shooters from lover quality basketball levels
​
 
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You forgot 2 players to mention. D. Giedraitis made 15 threes in 15 games with marvelous 55.6%. He's playing only 15mpg, so that number is not that small. I would take him to the NT because of defense alone, but if he can nail a three here and there with limited role in the NT, it's great.

M. Rubstavicius. 10 games and 10 threes and also marvelous 50%. And this % is even more impressive knowing that he takes difficult threes in transition, in front of defenders hands and so on. Only 16mpg. In 2 recent games where he played a lot (26mpg), not only his amazing season FG % (62) didn't drop, but even increased to 64%. It's not EL, but damn competitive Aussies League. Rubstavicius soon will be flat out best SG in the country. In my opinion he must be in the camp, unless he will decline it himself because of NBA draft.

And you overpraise R. Giedraitis. 0% 2019, 28.6% 2021, 2022 16.7%

I think NT will be pretty good shooting team. But it can't be the key component of 2024 NT, it's not 2003 with Saras, Siska, Macas, Stomba and so on. We have to tighten up defense a lot, and have more explosive athletic legs to get inside, brake the ISO defense. Sabonis, Sedekerskis, Brazdeikis, Grigonis, Jokubaitis is pretty nice core gang, but we badly need Rubstavicius as complete athletic guard. To me, once we have Rubstavicius cooking at FIBA level, we scratch that line from where we can politely discuss objective aims to medal.

I have this 2024 Olympic season as a little bit bad timing. Sabonis, Grigonis in their prime + Jokubaitis, Sedekerskis, Brazdeikis emerging is pretty nice, but give one more year to Rubstavicius (and likely Tubelis) and he would be cooking in the NT already, IMO, which would lift us higher. Now we just have to hope to have those 5 key pieces and to make smart choices of role players (which is hard to expect from Maksvytis). Very solid, but not yet a good team.

2024 will be more talented Olympic team than 2020 (de facto 2021). But 2028 will be completely different animal if at least 90% of the roster will be collected. For now I just want to sneak in and shake the waters a little bit. Won't be disappointed left aside semis.
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Sedekerskis at 4 is not a problem at all. Sure, he's not a shooter, but he's respectable around the arc. 47,6% is a great %, even if he doesn't take too many shots. One thing has to be understood. Sedekerskis made another step forward this season. He will be better player in 2024 and he already was solid in 2023. He is more aggressive, more explosive, more confident:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vPq1ZhcE120&ab_channel=EurohoopsTV
 
If our main 3 guards is Jokubaitis,Brazdeikis,Grigonis that will play 20-25mintues our defence will be bad defending nba perimeter players.

No one good defender with 10min role isnt fixing that.

I watched 2 years playing in same club .Dimsa is better overall and more universal player than Giedraitis.If i need to choose between 2 who will be our 5 guard desicion is easy.

Dimsa simply defends more position players and is better shooter.Dimsa is bigger but also is better to be put at PG for few minutes.

Only advantage of Giedraitis when coach need to defend ultra fast guards.


Can NT take both of them maybe,but that will mean Grigonis most likely is out. Those 30minute per game we can already see signs of Marius body is not holding well like i predicted.


Near Domas and that defensively bad backourt trio : shooting,shooting and one more time shooting.Thats only hope of fighter chance for 2024 summer.
 
Shawshank said:
If our main 3 guards is Jokubaitis,Brazdeikis,Grigonis that will play 20-25mintues our defence will be bad defending nba perimeter players.

No one good defender with 10min role isnt fixing that.

I watched 2 years playing in same club .Dimsa is better overall and more universal player than Giedraitis.If i need to choose between 2 who will be our 5 guard desicion is easy.

Dimsa simply defends more position players and is better shooter.Dimsa is bigger but also is better to be put at PG for few minutes.

Only advantage of Giedraitis when coach need to defend ultra fast guards.


Can NT take both of them maybe,but that will mean Grigonis most likely is out. Those 30minute per game we can already see signs of Marius body is not holding well like i predicted.


Near Domas and that defensively bad backourt trio : shooting,shooting and one more time shooting.Thats only hope of fighter chance for 2024 summer.
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I see a bit different. When Grigonis locked in defensively, he's even better than what Dimsa can offer. Pesky and lengthier, plays mind games. Giedraitis can offer something that none of those 2 can. Grigonis can play two way since Jokubaitis and Brazdeikis will take a heavy lift now and Grigonis won't need to overdo with the ball, sticking more to spot up shooting and attacking close outs.

Dimsa is superior than Giedraitis in terms of attacking, scorer, ATM. Not play making. Actually at times Giedraitis is so good at passing that Dimsa never will be. Dimsa more explosive athletic scorer, but he's not gonna play make and string the team. Giedraitis also not, but he's slightly better at sheer play making, better at pick and role, decision making and so on.

My dark horse is Marciulionis. He simply has to be in the camp and shake some water, kick some ass with his lock down defense and athletic facilitating. I want his ass on Kariniauskas. He would squeeze his lazy high dribble ass. If he turns out not ready, be it, but he must be in the camp.

Maksvytis will screw it again, I'm pretty sure :D Even I ATM looking from aside comfortably would have a hard time to make a claim.

Joku, Marciulionis, Giedraitis
Grigonis, Iggy, Dimsa
Butkevicius, Kuzminskas
Sedekerskis, Tubelis
Sabonis, Valanciunas

If Rubstavicius coming and he's tearing asses with his relentless motor and talent, take him even if Grigonis, Brazdeikis in. Talent shouldn't be ignored. If he's somewhat shaky, no necessity to ride the bench. Let Dimsa have his dance.
 
Listen keep those your kids with zero high quality men competions experience to your tallent 3-4 year rebuilding plans thread talks.

Here we talking about top 16 lithuanian players who realistically can help NT in 2024 Olympics and fits best with NT leaders.


Dimsa is bigger,better shooter,play better as backup pg and played way better this 1,5 seasons playing for same club. How its even a debate?

Coach need spot up type shooter Dimsa can be that,coach will need 10min at Pg Dimsa can do that,coach need to switch all defence Dimsa has size to defend everybody from PG-SF type players. Perfect size and good skillset for 5th universal guard spot that can be put in diffrent situations and roles of the bench.



My prediction : head coach would take if everybody healthy Jokubaitis,Grigonis,Brazdeikis,Dimsa as locks

5th guard again will be somebody from those experienced lkl guards like Lekavicius/D.Giedraitis/Normantas/Kariniauskas types.

We have seen this picture manny times and we all know how it ends.
 
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Yup, Rubstaviciis is a stud already. Third game when he's unleashed, third game he delivers. 15pts this time in 25min.action, still great from the field 58%, 50% of threes. He literally shoots threes 50%. That's braking news. Cause I waited till he will get healthy and will get solid minutes and the level is there. Obviously, another strong candidate for Olympic roster and huge piece heading forward, huge. Rubstavicius averaging 17,6ppg with great % as a starter in 26mpg. This is really great.

Shawhank, Dimsa is OK, I like him generally and I won't have any issues to have him on the team. The problem is that his defense is not what it takes to slow down great agile guards. He can't deal with truly agile and talented guards. Giedraitis does what's possible to make proper attempt to slow them down, he sticks with them. Dimsa can't do it. He can guard bigger guards and wings, but not agile guards. In switch all defense he's better option than Giedraitis, but Maksvytis has to find way to have at least one from Giedraitis/Marciulionis to guard those super agile hyper skilled guards. That's our best chance to tighten up defense. Without that we screwed. Butkevicius couldn't stay with L.Brown in 2022 (fouled out), and Dimsa/Normantas couldn't stay with Bogi/Avramovic. We need to throw either Giedraitis or Marciulionis on that breed. They are only pure guard defenders who can adequately stick with those players. It doesn't mean they will shut them down inevitably, but that's an adequate attempt. For Butkevicius, Dimsa, Normantas it's to high stake, the job not up to their profile. I have no issues to have Dimsa and Giedraitis/Marciulionis in the team, or even all 3 as I posted.

I also didn't mention Sirvydis. I think he's on the same tier with Kuzminskas ATM more or less, but I take Kuzminskas because of his consistency and experience. Sirvydis goes up and down a bit, like meh in one game and great on another, while Kuz provides much more consistent presence and I take this ATM.

And if Marciulionis not ready, I still take Lekavicius, not Kariniauskas.
 
Once again nobody will stop elite scorers from scoring.You as defender job is to force them shoot under 50% that all one player can do vs elite scorers.

Giedraitis cant do anything with euroleague elite scorers either we saw vs James or Punter put on him 20+pts with high % shooting.

Yeah Giedraitis has foot speed , high iq ,but dont have size and those scores when they feel that simply shoots over him.


Its way more chalenging to shoot over Dimsa or Butkevicius.They simply play diffrent type defence and is built to defend diffrent players.Giedraitis plays defence with foot speed ,Butkevicius,Dimsa using size


Giedraitis is good to defend small and fast guards ale Mills or Alvorado if i need to defend big modern guards Doncic,Fournier,Bogdanovich and co im would go with size and strenght on them .... and pray they will shoot under 50% that day .Because nobody can hold perimeter stars to 10pts when entire opponents team is working for them to get free and they take 10+shots in every game.


In todays modern big size guards era Butkevicius and Dimsa defence will be needed more often.


Where NT could use Giedraitis is put on small puerturico star.But when we will need to defend Fontechio type its clearly will be Arnas and Dimsa
 
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Serbia basically slashed the shit out of us. Normantas was trash in D, Dimsa wasn't much too. They simply couldn't stay with Serbian guards and gave up many lay ups. If James is hitting his fade away difficult threes and long mid rangers, that's all what you can do. But Serbia simply violated us with getting in and causing all sort of troubles. You missing the point that the key is to stop easy drives and points nearer the basket. We looked ridiculously bad at it. You have to make agile and coherent D which stops the drives and then you gamble with the opponents threes to certain extent. IDC about Dimsa's size, or fat as Normantas size if guards passing them like they are turtles. Butkevicius BTW is way better overall defender than Dimsa. Those shouldn't be named in one sentence, but Butkevicus is starting to fall apart it seems.

To me Giedraitis, Marciulionis, Butkevicius, Sedekerskis are 4 best defensive players in the country.

Dimsa, Grigonis, Ulanovas are next.
 
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So here's my take on Maksvytis resign from Zalgiris. For 2024 NT season exactly it's a good news. Now doubt. Now he will have a chance to work with the NT in the window, likely to test players that he missed in 2023 (Rubstavicius, Tubelis, Marciulionis, 2002 studs come to my mind in the first place), to have more time to properly get to know with the talent pool which he struggled so badly previously. He will have more time to prepare the game plan, to think over how to finally build the team around Sabonis and to utilize him most perfectly (many NBA games should be watched regularly) and so on. Finally NT have a coach. The one who works with the NT.

However, long term, I'm shitting my pants. I don't want Maksvytis to screw potentially great NEXT Olympic cycle. After a very long time, we'll have elite rosters and legitimate chance to fight for medals. But for that to happen, we need smooth and smart integration of talent and good buy saying to certain players and Maksvytis is trash at it. Kazlauskas was master at it, Maksvytis is trash. Maksvytis is solid coach, great communicator and solid on game decision maker, but he won't be able to handle NT properly in the next Olympic cycle, just as he didn't do it with this one. And next one it will be even more complex, much deeper talent pool when you will have to make a lot of decisions and it won't be easy.

If Maksvytis somehow brings NT to Olympic semis 2024, I would give him next Olympic cycle, would look for serious money to keep him working only as a NT coach cause that would be overachievement with current talent. That would be a statement and he should be awarded. But if Maksvytis won't make some kind of statement in 2024 I want his ass all gone. He blew it in 2022, he loses all the close games (with NT and Zalgiris), he cut down Sedekerskis who could be the key against Spain in 8finals (Brown/Garuba), he controversially blew it in 2023, again with flaw roster selection, and if he screws in 2024 he should be long gone.
 
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