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2024 Lithuanian NT

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I dont care about your fantasy thesis i go by history and facts


You were pushing every single top born tallent from 1998-2002 to men NT when they were 19-21 ,i repetaed they will not be ready and coach wont take them.

Only one Jokubaitis maded NT and got real minutes early at 21age (He started play in euroleague at 18) from all best 1998-2002 born players.


All other leaders of their age group will make like i said what history shows at round 23-24 age they should be ready.

Your thesis was wrong about 1998-2002 players fantasies they will help men NT at 20-21 ,history analytical numbers were right they should be ready at 23-24 old.
 
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vs Serbia Sabonis,Butkevicius,Grigonis,Ulanovas would have helped way more than some cluesless fiba tournament rookies that would get DNP in such type playoofs game


Right now in 2024 in win or go home game i would put these 9 players .In Kazlauskas playoofs style with all in were Jokubaitis plays 35min.

Sabonis,Valanciunas,Sedekerskis,Kuzminskas,Ulanova s,Butkevicius,Brazdeikis,Grigonis,Jokubaitis


Play all minutes only those 9 in playoofs elimination game and if they are not good enough ,its means 2024 LTU basketball right now is not good enough.


On bench i would have Dimsa,D.Giedraitis,Dmo but i would give them DNP with little posibility if forced with some faul trouble to main guards give 1 of them max 4-5 minutes.
 
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History shows, history shows...you keep repeating, but missing tons of occasions, like Jasikevicius making the team being 21yo and so on. No-one cares about when one or player made the team. The question is whenever X player can help more than an Y player. I say Marciulionis with his D and passing ability and athleticism is already better player than Lukas and Vaidas. Whenever that is true we can find out even in summer hopefully. |

Maybe Maksvytis will throw Dimsa or Grigonis at 1, we'll see, but most likely he will use a back-up for 10-15 minutes inevitably, just as he did with Kariniauskas against Serbia. He had Dimsa, but he didn't use him as PG in that game. And Kariniauskas didn't give anything.

Dovydas Giedraitis is an absolute must. And Marciulionis, IMO, too. Without them we don't have studs who can truly defend guards. Period.
 
I repeat:

Your thesis was wrong about 1998-2002 players fantasies they will help men NT at 20-21 ,history analytical numbers were right they should be ready at 23-24 old.

Now we are in 2024 and thats what happend with 1998-2002 born best players.


I will not waste time talking about who will be 10-12th players who either way will be DNP in real playoofs games.
 
I repeat:

Your thesis was wrong about 1998-2002 players fantasies they will help men NT at 20-21 ,history analytical numbers were right they should be ready at 23-24 old.

Now we are in 2024 and thats what happend with 1998-2002 born best players.


I will not waste time talking about who will be 10-12th players who either way will be DNP in real playoofs games.

You don't entirely coherent here. Guys like Sirvydis or D. Giedraitis didn't make the NT in 2022 because the competition in their positions were way bigger than competition at 1. Besides, Maksvytis made a terrible move not even trying Sirvydis who later exploded in Summer League. I followed D.Giedraitis in ACB and being 20-21yo he already was one of the best ACB defensive guards literally. He already had it and coach hired him to defend best players. Just saying that healthy Giedraitis could surely help in 2022 stopping some Brown in short stretches. His D was absolutely there. Giedraitis defensively felt comfortable in Euroleague from day 1. Only his offense needed time to adjust, specifically because of his lack of size and athleticism. However, I strongly believe Giedraitis could easily go to Eurobasket 2022 instead of Zemaitis. If coaches doesn't select certain players, that doesn't mean they are right necessary. Coaches make mistakes too and you take it every decision of coaches as some kind of sacred norm :)

My point is that at 1 we have declining Lekavicius and trash Kariniauskas who has nearly as much TOs as assists in Eurocup and plays soft slow ass D. So exactly in this context, Marciulionis chances to be a back-up is legitimate. Much like with Giedraitis, his defensive presence will transit directly, IMO. And offensively he can move the ball and sharpen up things better than Lekavicius, I'm not even talking about Kariniauskas. Lekavicius still has and edge in terms of scoring I think, but defensively Marciulionis is 2 times better than Lekavicius/Kariniauskas combined together and he's better facilitator. Yes, we don't know if his offensive game will translate now, and I think that's where the camp and exhibition stage should show it, but even only because of his D and physical presence at both ends I would take him.

My point is, we can't win with offense now. We don't have it so great yet. Now we stand a better chance, IMO, if we offer a lot of defense. If teams like Serbia, Canada, Germany will feel that we are soft, they will role all over us cause they have superior offensive upside and talent ATM. If the game will become physical, slower and edgier, we stand a better chance. That's why I want Marciulionis as a backup, that's why I want D. Giedraitis being a lock as the best defender ATM, that's why I want positionless defense of Butkevicius and Sedekerskis (and if Buzelis would come he would offer this too). I do believe that D. Giedraitis will play important role in OG if healthy. I think now even Maksvytis sees that. Even freakin' Maksvytis. It's hard not to see it, when it's a top 5 defensive player of EL. You are way off your mind with age numbers thinking that D. Giedraitis is DNP material in the knock our stage. Rather Dimsa is, I would say, with his extreme inconsistency. Giedraitis D at this point of NT stage, is vital.
 
There is facts player maded or not. Not excuses of why. Please talk with facts not theories.

1 generational tallent maded and got seriuos minutes and others didnt. Exactly what happend before in LTU NT ... You dont learn nothing from history thats why you are bad predictor...


Facts of 1998-2002 born shown you were wrong.Its very difficult to be ready at 20-21 and make top 10 level NT where 80-85% team players is nba/euroleague players


2006 Kleiza 2011 Valanciunas 2016 Sabonis 2021 Jokubaitis

Thats not just made NT but was playing real minutes in top 10 level NT (being 19-21 old age) . Its very rare bread and special tallent kids ltu have such 2-3 players per decade.


For most age youth group leaders it happens at 23-24 age when maturity and body physicality already there. Thats is facts and history of multiple ltu generations
 
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There is facts player maded or not. Not excuses on why. Please talk with facts not theories.

1 generational tallent maded and got seriuos minutes and others didnt. Exactly what happend before in LTU NT .. You dont learn nothing from history thats why you are bad predictor.


History and facts shown you were wrong.Its very difficult to be ready at 20-21 and make top 10 level NT where 80-85% team players is nba/euroleague players


2006 Kleiza 2011 Valanciunas 2016 Sabonis 2021 Jokubaitis

Thats not just made NT but was playing real minutes in top 10 level NT (being 19-21 old age) . Its very rare bread and special tallent kids ltu have such 2-3 players per decade.


For most age youth group leaders it happens at 23-24 age when maturity and body physicality already there. Thats is facts and history of multiple ltu generations

I don't question that. This tendency is correct. But you overlook certain role players who makes NT very early because of certain factors. Like the thin position, upside or else what. I don't say that many 20-22yo guys can step up instantly and make GREAT difference. That's rare occasion as you said. But I emphasize that some young players can step in for a little role and give certain benefits because of particular situation and also it's smart to integrate some young talent because of long term vision. (You underrate the importance of investment, you say IDK who takes 11-12th spots, but that's the direct forming of your rotation of next tournaments, it's a long run, next year there's always a tournament and you should think about it). There was plenty of such occasions in LTU history and other NTs.

F.e. Garastas took 20yo Pazdrazdis cause he was real talent, as well Karnisovas. Garastas was looking to the future and expected something from them instantly too (Pazdrazdis happened to screw his career with NCAA choice). In 1997 Kazlauskas took Jasikevicius as 21yo (he wasn't dropping 20ppg in NCAA as Karnisovas did, but Kazlauskas was PRO talent coach, he had boldness to integrate new talent). 22yo Songaila and Siskauskas were integrated, again, bu Kazlauskas in 2000 and he delivered. Nor Jasikevicius, nor Songaila, nor Siskauskas had clear generational upside. They were elite prospects, but not on the tier of Sabonis, Marciulionis, Kleiza, Motiejunas, Valanciunas, Sabonis or now Buzelis (lottery pick material let's say). I would compare Songaila's case with Sedekerskis case. They are similar type of talents more or less, the same tier (or Tubelis). Let's go further. Macijauskas made NT being 23yo, but he was ready for it being 21, 22 years old (thus being 23yo he became instant scoring leader of NT 2003, he was ready earlier). Again, elite prospect, but not generational. Then Jankunas 21yo made an impact to 2005 NT. Solid 11,5eff. Was he generational talent? God, no. Simply elite prospect happened to be in the right place at the right time. In 2006 20yo Kalnietis made an impact for WC team. Pocius could too, but Sireika thought he didn't need one when he had Macijauskas and Delininkaitis at 2. In 2010 22yo Gecevicius made an impact. In 2015 21yo Lekavicius made the team and despite missing shots his motor was felt. In 2016 22yo Kariniauskas and Grigonis made it.

Such guys who made NT being 22yo or younger as Pazdrazdis, Karnisovas, Stombergas, Timinskas, M.Zukauskas, Jasikevicius, Jurkunas, Songaila, Siskauskas, Kaukenas, Javtokas, Jankunas, Kalnietis, Maciulis, Gecevicius, Lekavicius, Kariniauskas, Grigonis, Jokubaitis and others who I don't remember were not generational talents, they simply were either elite or borderline elite prospects (well or simply PGs as in Kariniauskas case or 23yo Gustas in 2003).

The same Jokubaitis is not a generational prospect, simply elite prospect at very needed position so he had open path to the NT. That's why Marciulionis has a great chances to make 2024 as 22yo. If that was Kazlauskas under the wheel last year, Marciulionis most likely already would have played for the NT.

In other words, we have plenty of occasions when 20-22yo make NT and the same Sirvydis could or could not make 2022 NT (or D. Giedraitis). No-one would be shocked. The same way no-one would be shocked if either of Tubelis, Rubstavicius, Marciulionis makes the NT 2024 as elite prospects.

Speaking about generational talents it was A. Sabonis, S. Marciulionis, Ilgauskas, Kleiza, D. Motiejunas, Valanciunas, D. Sabonis and now Buzelis. Those are lottery pick material. Maybe Karnisovas and Macijauskas could be in conversation cause they were putting big numbers early, but globally wise they were not flat out world class players. I'm not even talking about Jasikevicius, Siskauskas for whom it took years to become truly elite in EL.

We have plenty of elite prospects now, more then ever most likely, great stretch, so some of them can or can't make NT early, it goes as no surprise and one generational talent Buzelis. That's how I see the situation.

Players as Jokubaitis, Rubstavicius, Jakucionis, Indrusaitis are of the same tier of Jasikevicius, Siskauskas, Macijauskas.
 
I was talking about players who was taken to NT at 19-22 not because some future,but because they was taken to play and help NT win games that summer


you naming literally all youngster names from 32 years history :) btw how manny of them were good and helped NT in that first tournament 20% of them?


32x12= 384 players and you naming like 20 players is minority from all players from 32 years history. 20 names in 32 year history is under 1 youngster per fiba tournament u understand that right?

So what age other 90% of NT players were? Now try to name all players who were 23 and older ? it will be like 200+ players :)

200 players from 23+ age group and around 20 players from 19-22 old age group in 32 years history. Conclusions is clear what NT players building % looked.


Olympic summer is not about some future its about now and taking best of best right now to win tommorows game in San Juan.Not game in 2027.

in 2025 thats where new blood will be brought start building for 2028 olympics.Thats how it always was and should be olympic cycle to next olympic



2023 summer was golden possibility for unproven youngsters because NT literally were missing 50% of best players.

But still only one Sirvydis made from all 20-23 youngsters and even he become our worst guard in 2023 world championship. Everybody Kariniauskas,Dimsa,Normantas played more and coaches them trusted way more.

We saw window games recently how Sirvydis and Tubelis is looked by coaches in games were top 8 players wasnt even there.

You are naive and dint learn nothing from past coaches desicions if you think that in Olympic summer some NT rookies will be brought and ale will have real roles when coaches will have just 2 weeks to prepare for most important tournament in 2021-2024 for NT.
 
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Your beloved Kazklauskas braught Siska and Songa to OG as rookies and later rookies Kariniauskas, Grigonis. Did you learn that lesson? :D
 
Ok and it still was 1-2 youngsters per fiba tournament. When it do or die game Kazlauskas played 7 players,he forgot all his bench players in real games.

Btw both Kariniauskas and Grigonis in 2016 sucked and was unplayable,missed all wide open shots because olympic camera was too bright for rookies.


20 youngsters in 32 years is minority. Under 1 youngster per fiba tournaments that statistic of LTU NT.

In your prediction you are imagine our men NT will be 20-25% builted from such age players and im always laughing and repeating you talking nonsenses because i know history and you dont


:)
 
Actually Grigonis played 20minutes against Australia in 4finals. He didn't score, but played good D. The problem was not only nerves, but he had injury before the tournament and that affected his performance as well (BTW the problem was that JV sucked balls in that game while he had to give us 20pts, also Seibutis and Maciulis underperformed too, but overall off course Australia was at different level back than and our NT got demoralized after Spanish knockout). Siska and Songa played well though as a rookies. Mindaugas Zukauskas as a rookie in 1996 Olympics was also pretty good in limited playing time, shooting 52% from the field and giving 4ppg, being primarily defensive player.

Notice one thing. Most new talent came under Garastas and Kazlauskas. Tier 1 coaches. The ones who have balls to make a push and change. If Jasikevicius had been coaching NT for last 10 years, there would be much more 22yo and younger talents making NT. Now Jasikevicius would be perfect cause we have tons of new talent coming. We need competent coach who could properly cope with it. Kazys is horrible at it.
 
Hi guys, actually what is your most probably roster for the preolympic tournament?What do you think about Italy?With Gallo, fontecchio and di Vincenzo i think Will be 50/50 game, are you agree?
 
Hi guys, actually what is your most probably roster for the preolympic tournament?What do you think about Italy?With Gallo, fontecchio and di Vincenzo i think Will be 50/50 game, are you agree?

Jokubaitis, (Marciulionis/Lekavicius)
Grigonis, Brazdeikis, (D.Giedraitis/Dimsa)
Ulanovas, Butkevicius (Buzelis or Sirvydis since Buzelis most likely won't show up)
Sedekerskis, Kuzminskas (Tubelis/Bendzius)
Sabonis, Valanciunas

Something like that. Bold ones are locks, they will be in if healthy and invited. That's the best case.

I would say Lithuania is more fundamentally sound, consistent and more balanced team. Italy more streaky and more dependant on shooting. Lithuania has more balanced in and out game and no-one on Italian roster is even close in terms of decision making of Jokubaitis. Italy has however more shooting forwards and bigs (Galo will play at 5 a lot, IMO). If Knicks dude Donte will be there, it give an offensive boost for the Italy, but again Italy doesn't really have answers for Sabonis, JV and even keeping Sedekerskis away from the glass. If our guards will deliver offensively (Grigonis having good season and Jokubaitis and Brazdeikis should be at least half of step better than they were in 2023), Lithuania will have an edge, IMO. For LTU the key is to establish good D and not to let Italians to find their shooting streak. For Italy the spacing and open looks are the keys as well as pushing the tempo, now allowing Lithuanians to gather defensively.

Italy has that ability to play like crap here and there and to exceed in some games. Lithuania's presence is much more equal and consistent. A Lithuanian team won't miserably choke anywhere, the presence will be there and I see an improved version of 2022 roster which was close taking down the champs.

To me Lithuania is slightly > Italy
 
main top 9 locks i agree


End of the bench 10-11th places role players will be choosen from:

R.Giedraitis 10,5pts euroleague player
T.Dimsa 7,1pts euroleague player
D.Giedraitis 4,5pts euroleague player
Lekavicius 4,5pts euroleague player

Sirvydis 18,9pts uleb player
Kariniauskas 8,1pts uleb player
Normantas 11pts uleb player


Tier 1 Dimsa and D.Giedraitis would be my choices.

Tier 2 R.Giedraitis,Sirvydis,Kariniauskas will have chances too.

Tier 3 Lekavicius and Normantas i dont see it.


12th place will be big that will get Maldunas/Echodas 3 minutes or DNPs role.​
 
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I'm telling you Kariniauskas can't help against elite teams. I was saying that last summer and it turned out to be true. It's a waste of time. He can't do it. Marciulionis at least would provide defense at the very least. Kariniauskas can't give anything against disciplined prepared elite teams.

R. Giedraitis already wasted 3 tournaments (2019, 2021, 2022) and he would waste another one.

I like how Trinchieri started D. Giedraitis, Butkevicius, Ulanovas against Rytas. That's very spot on and I would be looking for that in summer as well. If Marciulionis would happen not to be ready, we would need Grigonis at 1, IMO. I would throw Jokubaitis, D. Giedraitis, Butkevicius, Sedekerskis, Sabonis starting line-up and Grigonis, Brazdeikis, Kuzminskas, Ulanovas, Valanciunas as a back-up line-up. We can't play with scrubs anymore. Our rotation should be legit and such level players as Kariniauskas who can't even play in Eurocup solidly, should be miles away from NT. It's not a trash garden or something.
 
Im telling for 100th time Kariniauskas helped alot againts Usa and Greece and was solid backup overall in 2023 tournament.If you didnt watch the games cant help you.

Coach will invite him to camp believe me,im not for taking him to olympics,but coaches will search for experienced playmaker for 8-10min especially if they wont see Dimsa/Giedraitis as PG.

Entire nation was shouting and screaming at Kariniauskas last summer.Coach didnt even move took and play him in world championships and coaches ended up being right doing that.NT had best team results in years with funny enough that uleb playmaker having best +- on entire team.


Sirvydis also sucked in 2023,was our worst guard worse than Dimsa,worse than Normantas,worse than Kariniauskas. Sirvydis had good uleb season and will be invited.Giedraitis had good euroleague season and also will be invited even if sucked in 2022. Thats how it works.

Coaches by their actions shows they dont mind wasting roster spot with 10pts euroleague player with hope maybe he can deliver atleast in 1 game.Thats all coaches need from 10-12th bench players.
 
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I need a PG who cal help in the knock out stage against elite teams. Greece was not elite, USA game was meaningless and pressureless, they also didn't do any scouting. Against Serbia we saw who is who. We need defense, athleticism from position 1. Kariniauskas can't bring anything and he didn't in the most important game of WC. Live with that.
 
I need a PG who cal help in the knock out stage against elite teams. Greece was not elite, USA game was meaningless and pressureless, they also didn't do any scouting. Against Serbia we saw who is who. We need defense, athleticism from position 1. Kariniauskas can't bring anything and he didn't in the most important game of WC. Live with that.

If you think that Marciulionis can stop Micic or similar level player you are deeply mistaken. Shawshak is right. He is not that good and he will probably never be.
 
You again are wrong understanding 10-12th players roles. I already told you n times 10-12th players gets DNP in playoofs.What you dont get it?

Playoofs is all about top 9 players. 10-12th players role to give rest in group stage for main players.In playoofs coaches will go all in with top 9 players.

Brazdeikis sucked even more vs Serbia and ? nothing ,its just one game and serbians dogs locked every single our guard.So all of them from 2023 is unplayable now by your logic?

Look how players looked in entire tournament and stop cherry picking one game. Vs Greece it was 100% elimination playoofs game too.


To beat Serbia NT need Jokubaitis,Brazdeikis way better games and Grigonis will help.Not search for answers at 10-12th bench players and blame them for not beating silver medal winners.
 
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I will reply to both of you, Toruko and SS

FOA, SS makes mistake thinking that in do or die elite games some kind of pure back-up PG won't be used. Most likely it will be used and Maksvytis will need one. He could try to throw either of Grigonis, Dimsa, D. Giedraitis at 1 (SGs), but none of this option is very effective and I would prioritize Grigonis from this trio obviously. But most likely Maksvytis won't do it, he again will use pure PG be it Lekavicius, Kariniauskas or Marciulionis. And that's the problem, we need legitimate piece here.

SS the difference between Brazdeikis/Jokubaitis and Kariniauskas is that former guys proved themselves plenty of times against elite teams previously, both NT and club competition. Kariniauskas never did it (except a fluke against uncoached and clueless USA against which Lithuania was super relaxed). That's the difference. Nor in club, not in NT he can't do it and he doesn't do it. Brazdeikis dropped 17pts against Spain in 2022, Jokubaitis added 13pts and 5 assists, f.e.

And, most importantly, you missing my point, Toruko. I prioritize Marciuliomis because I know one thing. He would play better defense. Flat out, from day one, any minute, any moment, better defense. Pure fact. This coming 100%. IDK if Marciulionis will slow down Micic or not, I know at least that he will provide much better attempt than Kariniauskas. Fact. He has chances to cause trouble. Kainiauskas has not, defensively. Even if Marciulionis would provide as much as Kariniauskas offensively against elite teams, meaning he would privide nothing and would be useless, I would know that Marciulionis give me BETTER DEFENSE. My thesis is that guys like Marciulionis and D. Giedraitis can bight opponents legs like bulldogs literally and that's what we need from role players. ATM Jokubatis, Grigonis, Brazdeikis won;t prevail by talent and offense against Micic, Bogdanovic, Avramovic, but we can put our selves in competitive situation if we offer pesky D and guys who can truly stay with basically any guard, even elite ones and challenge them to certain extent, meat their intensity. This would still mean a loss most likely, but at least having annoying, grinding, capable defenders put us in much better situation. I don't won't to see toothless Lithuania again, let's at least provide a proper hustle and meat the opponents at D end. D. Giedraitis is ready for it definitely and I have little doubt that second best perimeter defender in the country after him is Marciulionis. Now, at the very this minute. Just watch it. BTW, Giedraitis felt comfortable defensively in EL by day one. Defense never was an issue. Offense was. He may reached new level this season, but previously he also was elite. Even ACB with Estudiantes he already was.
 
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